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Matthew Pouliot
Strike Zone
December 20, 2008
AFL Wrapup - Part Two
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After a lengthy delay (sorry, magazine work), here's part two of the AFL wrap-up. We'll cover 30 prospects from the remaining three teams this week.

Peoria Javelinas

Lorenzo Cain - OF Brewers - DOB: 04/13/86
.287/.358/.448, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 68/29 K/BB, 19 SB in 317 AB (A+ Brevard County)
.277/.363/.486, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 41/19 K/BB, 6 SB in 148 AB (AA Huntsville)
.158/.273/.158, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 6/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 19 AB (AAA Nashville)
.333/.382/.635, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 8/4 K/BB, 4 SB in 63 AB (AFL)

A mediocre 2007 meant that Cain had to open last season back at Single-A Brevard County, but he was much improved in his second go-round in the FSL and he kept it up in 40 games in Double-A, raising his OPS from 806 to 849. He also shined in the AFL, hitting .333 with the biggest power surge of his career (five homers in 63 at-bats). Cain could possess 20-homer power in time, and he's already a quality defensive right fielder with very good speed. Fewer strikeouts would be nice, but he's managed to post solid averages at every level. If it comes together for him, a future as a long-term regular is a real possibility. The plan will be for him to open 2009 back in Double-A, with the possibility of a midseason promotion to Triple-A. He could then make his major league debut in September as a bench player.

Greg Halman - OF Mariners - DOB: 08/26/87
.268/.320/.572, 19 HR, 53 RBI, 76/16 K/BB, 23 SB in 257 AB (A+ High Desert)
.277/.332/.481, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 66/16 K/BB, 8 SB in 235 AB (AA West Tenn)
.217/.244/.410, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 37/2 K/BB, 5 SB in 83 AB (AFL)

While he's still very much a raw talent, Halman did take quite a step forward last season. One year after flaming out in the Midwest League (.182 average, 77 strikeouts in 52 games), he was able to amass an 892 OPS in high-A ball and then more than hold his own in Double-A. The end result was a .272/.326/.528 season with 29 homers and 31 steals. His 142/32 K/BB ratio was still grotesque, but a substantial improvement nonetheless. Unfortunately, his gains didn't hold up in the AFL, where he altered wind patterns nationwide by hitting .217 with a 37/2 K/BB ratio in 83 at-bats. It'd be foolish for the Mariners to rush Halman to the majors next year, but anything is possible if he gets off to a good start. He has terrific power, but his current swing probably won't work for him against advanced pitching. Odds are that it's going to take him at least another two years to polish up his game.

Gaby Hernandez - RHP Mariners - DOB: 05/21/86
3-0, 4.30 ERA, 21 H, 17/4 K/BB in 23 IP (AA Carolina)
1-1, 5.01 ERA, 38 H, 23/15 K/BB in 32 1/3 IP (AA West Tenn)
2-8, 7.24 ERA, 94 H, 54/26 K/BB in 64 2/3 IP (AAA Albuquerque)
2-5, 7.67 ERA, 33 H, 24/14 K/BB in 29 1/3 IP (AFL)

Hernandez entered 2008 with a 3.49 ERA in 3 1/3 minor league seasons, but he couldn't handle the combination of the jump to the PCL and the great offensive environment at Albuquerque. His struggles made him available to the Mariners in the Arthur Rhodes deal, but he didn't show much after the trade, going 1-1 with a 5.01 ERA in six starts in Double-A and later getting knocked around in the AFL. Hernandez has struggled to throw his 89-92 mph fastball past more mature hitters. His curveball is very good and he still has youth on his side, but he'll have to add a wrinkle if he's going to make it as a starting pitcher in the majors. He might prove to be better off in the bullpen.

Phil Hughes - RHP Yankees - DOB: 06/24/86
2-0, 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 6/2 K/BB in 6 2/3 IP (A- Charleston)
1-0, 5.90 ERA, 34 H, 31/9 K/BB in 29 IP (AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
0-4, 6.62 ERA, 43 H, 23/15 K/BB in 34 IP (AL New York)
2-0, 3.00 ERA, 21 H, 38/13 K/BB in 30 IP (AFL)

Penciling Hughes into the 2008 rotation seemed like the right call for the Yankees, but he failed to build on his modest success from his rookie season, going 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in six starts before being placed on the DL with a stress fracture in his rib cage. It was 2 ½ months before he got back on the mound, and he didn't rejoin the Yankees until Sept. 13. Upon returning, he allowed three runs in 12 innings over two starts. The AFL also provided encouraging results, even if he was lucky enough to face the circuit's two worst offenses in five of his six starts. He went 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 30 innings. Hughes has struggled to consistently show the velocity that once made him the game's No. 1 pitching prospect. He's still a very good bet to turn into a reliable major league starter, but he currently looks like a No. 3 with an outside chance of becoming a No. 2. The Yankees won't leave a spot open for him next year, so he'll head to Triple-A unless an injury strikes. With his price tag well down, he's worth a look in the hope that he'll make 20 starts or so.

Rhyne Hughes - 1B Rays - DOB: 09/09/83
.268/.356/.448, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 112/46 K/BB, 2 SB in 395 AB (AA Montgomery)
.394/.432/.697, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 33/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 109 AB (AFL)

24-year-old first basemen who barely manage 800 OPSs in Double-A aren't typically prospects, but a couple of factors do make Hughes a sleeper. First, he's a terrific defender, probably to the point at which he'd be an upgrade over 2008 Gold Glove winner Carlos Pena. Second, he came through with a huge fall, hitting .394/.432/.697 with five homers in 109 at-bats. Hughes is still quite a long shot to make it as a major league regular, but he could be a decent enough stopgap. Should Pena get hurt again next season, the Rays could bring up Hughes to play against righties and use Willy Aybar versus lefties.

Austin Jackson - OF Yankees - DOB: 02/01/87
.285/.354/.419, 9 HR, 69 RBI, 113/56 K/BB, 19 SB in 520 AB (AA Trenton)
.246/.298/.377, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 30/7 K/BB, 2 SB in 114 AB (AFL)

Jackson was better at basketball than baseball coming out of high school, but after two years of modest production, he busted out following a midseason promotion to the FSL in 2007. 2008 was more of a consolidation year. His numbers didn't stand out, but they were still very good for a 21-year-old in Double-A. Unfortunately, he did falter in the AFL, finishing at .246 with 30 strikeouts in 28 games. What slim chance there was of the Yankees giving him a chance to compete for a starting job in 2009 probably died with his struggles there. Jackson needs the year in Triple-A anyway. Comparisons to Bernie Williams are easy. Besides the obvious similarities, both are all-around players without one real standout skill. Jackson is highly unlikely to match the eight Hall of Fame-quality seasons that Williams had in his prime, but he could turn into a well above average regular. Ideally, the Yankees wouldn't call on him before September.

Robert Manuel - RHP Reds - DOB: 07/09/83
1-0, 0 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 11/3 K/BB in 7 2/3 IP (A+ Sarasota)
5-3, 3 Sv, 1.40 ERA, 47 H, 92/15 K/BB in 77 IP (AA Chattanooga)
0-0, 0 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 0/0 K/BB in 2 IP (AAA Louisville)
1-0, 0 Sv, 1.98 ERA, 16 H, 13/1 K/BB in 13 2/3 IP (AFL)

Working as a full-time reliever for the first time, Manuel was one of the most effective pitchers in the minors last season, finishing with a 1.25 ERA and a 103/18 K/BB ratio in 86 2/3 innings. The 25-year-old right-hander went undrafted out of Sam Houston State before signing with the Mets. He joined the Reds in a trade for Dave Williams in 2006. Manuel works at around 90 mph and relies on outstanding command. Neither his slider nor changeup will function as a true outpitch in the majors, so it's doubtful that he'll serve as an eighth- or ninth-inning guy. However, he's used to working two innings at a time and he could fit in nicely as a middle reliever.

Juan Miranda - 1B Yankees - DOB: 04/25/83
.287/.384/.449, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 79/55 K/BB, 2 SB in 356 AB (AAA Scranton)
.400/.500/.500, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 10 AB (AL New York)
.301/.378/.658, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 23/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 73 AB (AFL)

The Yankees won a modest bidding war for Miranda two years ago, signing the Cuban defector to a $2 million deal, but nothing they've done since suggests he's in their plans. He did show a fair amount of ability while hitting .332/.439/.534 against righties in Triple-A last season, earning himself a September callup. However, his name rarely came up when the subject turned to potential replacements for Jason Giambi. Miranda hasn't helped his case with his glovework at first base, and it's doubtful that he'll ever hit lefties well enough to play regularly in the majors. Still, if his listed age is correct and he's truly 25, then he should have a few years as a platoon guy ahead of him. His best hope of getting a shot with the Yankees would be a Hideki Matsui injury or a prolonged slump from Nick Swisher.

Humberto Sanchez - RHP Yankees - DOB: 05/28/83
0-1, 2.31 ERA, 9 H, 15/4 K/BB in 11 2/3 IP (R GCL Yankees)
0-1, 9.00 ERA, 3 H, 2/1 K/BB in 2 IP (A+ Tampa)
0-0, 9.00 ERA, 2 H, 2/0 K/BB in 1 IP (AA Trenton)
0-0, 4.50 ERA, 1 H, 1/2 K/BB in 2 IP (AL New York)
0-1, 12.00 ERA, 21 H, 4/11 K/BB in 12 IP (AFL)

Sanchez, the most talented of the three righties the Yankees picked up from the Tigers for Gary Sheffield after 2006, had a tough time making it back from April 2007 Tommy John surgery, though he did pitch in the majors at the very end of the year. After two innings with the Yankees, he went to the AFL and promptly gave up 21 hits and walked 11 in 12 innings. A healthy Sanchez can throw in the mid-90s and strike batters out with a plus slider, but command has always been an issue. Since the Yankees have loaded up with starting pitching depth, Sanchez is probably destined to become a short reliever if he remains with the team. For now, though, getting him innings has to the priority, and that should probably happen in the rotation in Double- or Triple-A. Perhaps he'll help the Bombers in the second half.

Justin Smoak - 1B Rangers - DOB: 12/05/86
.304/.355/.518, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 10/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 56 AB (A- Clinton)
.353/.468/.588, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 11/10 K/BB, 0 SB in 51 AB (AFL)

Even though Chris Davis was shaping up as the long-term first baseman, the Rangers couldn't pass on Smoak when he was still sitting there at pick No. 11 in the 2008 draft. Many figured the switch-hitter out of South Carolina would go in the top five. The Rangers got him signed just before the Aug. 15 deadline, so he didn't have much of a chance to light up Midwest League pitchers. However, he did hit .353/.468/.588 in 51 at-bats against advanced competition in the AFL. Smoak is a polished hitter from both sides of the plate, and he has the power that could make him an All-Star in his prime. He already seems to be ready for Double-A, and if he does well there, it's possible he'll debut before the end of 2009. A Hank Blalock trade or injury would help his chances.

Carlos Triunfel - SS Mariners - DOB: 02/27/90
.287/.336/.406, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 52/30 K/BB, 30 SB in 436 AB (A+ High Desert)
.298/.339/.394, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 16/7 K/BB, 1 SB in 104 AB (AFL)

After jumping him from low-A to high-A ball for no good reason in the middle of 2007, the Mariners backed off Triunfel last season, allowing him to spend the whole year at one of the game's best environments for hitters. The results may not have met expectations, but for a kid who would have been finishing up his final year of high school had he been born in the U.S., they weren't bad at all. Triunfel went on to put up a nearly identical line against older pitchers in the AFL. He's not going to last at shortstop and he may not hit for as much power as originally hoped, but he still has plenty of upside. Third base is probably his best bet for a long-term home. The odds are against him seeing the majors in 2009, but the Mariners have rushed prospects before. Any chance of it hinges on him growing up and moving beyond the behavioral problems that led to him being suspended for nearly two weeks last season.

Chris Valaika - SS Reds - DOB: 08/13/85
.363/.393/.585, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 28/7 K/BB, 2 SB in 135 AB (A+ Sarasota)
.301/.352/.443, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 74/28 K/BB, 7 SB in 379 AB (AA Chattanooga)
.311/.346/.437, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 26/8 K/BB, 0 SB in 119 AB (AFL)

Valaika's ability to hit for average is what will get him to the majors. Including the AFL, he's batted .300 in five of his six stops so far. The only time he didn't is when he hit .253 following a midseason promotion to Single-A Sarasota in 2007. The Reds started him at the same level last season, and hit batted .363 in 32 games before making the jump to Double-A. In all, he hit .317/.363/.481 for the season. Valaika doesn't project as more than a 15-homer guy, and he strikes out more than one would expect. Still, his bat should make him a utilityman at worst in the majors. It's just too bad he isn't a legitimate shortstop. He might be able to serve as a backup at the position in the majors, but he'll be a far better fit at second base. He's due to open next year in Triple-A.

Continue story ...

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Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been featured in ESPN The Magazine. For comments, e-mail him at matthewpouliot@hotmail.com.
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