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Ryan Knaus
The Week Ahead
April 4, 2009
Championship Week
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The Week Ahead has been slightly tweaked to reflect the needs of still-competitive fantasy owners. Most head-to-head leagues with weekly lineups will require you to lock in players for the duration of the season, which means Week 24 as well as the abbreviated Week 25.

Every team (other than the Knicks and Lakers) plays twice in Week 25, so simply add two games to the total you see below. Finally, the specific opponents for Week 25 are listed separately under each team, in case you're only interested in Week 24.

The decisions you make this week will make or break your championship aspirations, obviously, so pay particularly close attention to matchups and injuries. You wouldn't have made it this far without a solid team...benching one injured star (Kevin Martin?) in favor of a more reliable option might be the smartest thing you've done all season.

Four games -- Grizzlies, Hornets, Kings, Knicks, Lakers, Magic, Raptors, 76ers, Spurs, Thunder, Trail Blazers

Three games -- Bobcats, Bulls, Cavaliers, Celtics, Clippers, Hawks, Heat, Jazz, Mavericks, Nets, Pacers, Pistons, Rockets, Suns, Timberwolves, Warriors

Two games -- Bucks, Nuggets, Wizards

Four-game teams

Grizzlies (POR, orl, PHO, lal)

This is a rough way to start such a crucial week. Over the past 10 games, the Trail Blazers have given up the second-fewest points (92.1) and second-fewest assists (17.1) of any team in the league. The Magic, meanwhile, allow their opponents the third-lowest FG% (43.3%) and third-fewest 3-pointers (5.4) on the third-lowest 3PT% (34.4%). The Suns are way more lenient, near the bottom in most defensive categories, but this is still a difficult slate for the Grizzlies.

Week 25 -- (pho, ATL) -- This gives the Griz two games against the Suns, who give up the second-most steals (8.6) and third-most 3-pointers (7.6) of any team. That balances out the rough patch discussed earlier -- guys like Mike Conley, Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol have been lighting it up lately, so you'll probably want to keep them (and O.J. Mayo) active.

Hornets (mia, PHO, dal, DAL)

Peja Stojakovic scored seven points in 25 minutes off the bench on Friday. He didn't shy away from contact, but was clearly rusty and you can't expect his minutes to increase too quickly. Personally, I'd avoid him.

Tyson Chandler is aiming to play in the final three games of the season (in a best-case scenario) and shouldn't be owned in most leagues.

Rasual Butler continues to play heavy minutes (he averaged 39 minutes per game in March), but in the past five games he's lost his shooting touch, averaging just 10.0 points on 17-of-58 (29%) shooting.

Week 25 -- (hou, sa) -- These two games aren't very favorable matchups, so the outlook of the aforementioned players doesn't change significantly. Chris Paul and David West have reestablished their 'dynamic duo' act lately...if you're not sure whether to start them, ask your physician for advice.

Kings (LAL, HOU, lac, SA)

Kevin Martin's ankle injury looms large for his owners, and as of Saturday afternoon there is no definitive word on his condition. He scored a career-high 50 points on Wednesday, but this is the same ankle that's bothered him all season and I'm starting to worry that he's going out on a high-note. Check for updates until the last possible second -- fortunately, the Kings play on Sunday so we should have some news before long.

Whether or not K-Mart can go, Francisco Garcia has emerged as a dominant fantasy player down the stretch. He has at least one steal in the past eight games, has drained 20 three-pointers (that's right) in the past six games and is averaging 25.5 points in April.

Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson both scored career-highs against the Suns on Friday (22 points and 23 points, respectively) and should be solid options again this week. Hawes' split stats against the Spurs (4.0 points, 6.5 rebounds in two games) and Rockets (9.0 points, 8.0 rebounds in two games) are rather poor, but it's tough to judge him by those numbers since he's elevated his game since March 1st.

Week 25 -- (den, min) -- Nothing too extraordinary worth mentioning here...the Nuggets and Wolves both get plenty of their shots blocked (6th- and 1st-most in the league, respectively), which should give a slight boost to the Kings' aforementioned big men.

Knicks (chi, DET, orl, mia)

The Knicks face four playoff-bound teams who are scrapping for position or, for the Bulls and Pistons, their spot in the playoffs. Nothing will come easy, therefore, and guys like Chris Duhon might be better off on your bench this week. Duhon continues to struggle down the stretch, averaging 6.3 points on 6-of-21 shooting, 8.7 assists and 0.3 steals in the past three games. Avoid him unless you really need assists and a couple of threes per game.

Quentin Richardson and Larry Hughes are both returning from ankle injuries -- Q-Rich is due back on Saturday, while Hughes is expected to play on Sunday. Both guys are streaky even when they're 100% healthy, so only deploy them with extreme reluctance. Watch Nate Robinson's weekend stats closely, since he's been poking his head in-and-out of Mike D'Antoni's doghouse for the past few weeks.

Week 25 -- (NJ) The Knicks are one of just two unfortunate teams to play one game in the final week. Fortunately, since they play four times in Week 24, it's not a crippling blow to their fantasy values.

Lakers (sac, DEN, por, MEM)

The Kings give up the second-most points of any team in the league (109.5), and nobody allows their opponents to shoot a higher percentage from the field (48.5%) or three-point land (40.7%). The Lakers only have three players offering consistent value right now (Kobe, Pau and Lamar), but some owners might consider starting Derek Fisher to capitalize on the Kings' and Nuggets' lenient 3PT defense.

Andrew Bynum is targeting a return against the Grizzlies on April 12th, but he hasn't participated in 5-on-5 drills and it's very unwise to start him for the possibility of one rusty game (or two).

Week 25 -- (UTAH) -- This Week 25 schedule is great in real life, giving L.A. time to rest and prepare for whichever opponent they're bound to decimate in Round One of the playoffs. It's not so great in fantasy leagues, obviously, and could tip the scales against a borderline option like Trevor Ariza.

Magic (hou, MEM, NY, nj)

Orlando sits one game behind the Celtics in the East right now, so I don't expect any of their key players to pick up random DNPs. Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis (who appears to have overcome his recent knee problems) should all be active.

Rafer Alston is coming off one of his best games of the season (against the Cavaliers, no less) on Friday, when he posted 11 points, 10 assists and four steal in just 27 minutes. That doesn't change the fact that he's a terrible shooter (38.5% for his career), but the Grizzlies, Knicks and Nets could yield a few more nice returns for Alston's owners.

Week 25 -- (mil, CHA) Depending upon what happens this week, these two games could either be laden with playoff implications or they could be meaningless. The former scenario would maximize Orlando's fantasy values, so keep your fingers crossed.

Raptors (ATL, ind, WAS, PHI)

Toronto is riding an improbable five-game win streak into this weekend's back-to-back games against the Knicks, which gives them a good chance of facing the Hawks with a seven-game streak on the line. Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon have elevated their games at just the right moment (for fantasy owners, at least) and should have little trouble piling up impressive stats against the Pacers and Wizards. Andrea Bargnani fouled out on Wednesday (for just the second time all season) with 16 points and two rebounds. He should be fine going forward.

Shawn Marion is also playing well lately, perhaps spurred by the fact that someone named "Pops" was outplaying him, but I'm not above finding something to gripe about. Where have the 3-pointers gone? He hasn't even attempted a shot from downtown in the past nine games, and is 0-of-11 dating back to February 4th (16% on the season). Someone's been tampering with his binary codes.

Week 25 -- (was, chi)

76ers (cha, chi, CLE, tor)

Andre Miller posted a triple-double on Saturday, so there's no reason to be concerned about his nagging injuries. Andre Iguodala scored a season-high 31 points in the same game, in case you needed more incentive to start him in a four-game week.

Thaddeus Young is out for the next two-to-three weeks and should be dropped in all leagues. Reggie Evans continues to start, but Marreese Speights and Lou Williams have also seen their minutes increase slightly in his absence. Realistically, none of those three guys is getting enough run to be must-starts in average leagues.

Week 25 -- (BOS, cle) -- Ouch. This is the worst two-game schedule imagineable, as it pits Philly against the league's top two defenses. Guys like Iguodala and Miller are basically immune to poor matchups, but borderline options (Samuel Dalembert, Lou Williams, etc.) should be used with extreme caution, if at all. Continue story ...

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Despite residing in Portland, Ryan Knaus is a huge Sonics fan. He is in his second season writing fantasy hoops for Rotoworld.com and longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel.
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