NBC Sports FF Championship

Blogs

Welcome
Register
Profile
Help/Contact Us
Home
Tom Kessenich
NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship
April 24, 2009
The New Royalty
There is already an open DataReader associated with this Connection which must be closed first.
PRINTER FRIENDLY NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship Archives
 

As NFL teams hunker down in the closing hours before Draft Day on Saturday, some of the best fantasy football players in the country have already gotten a head start on the 2009 season.

Some of the top participants in the National Fantasy Football Championship have been hard at work since January testing their fantasy mettle against one another in a mock Slow Draft. While the results of the NFL's draft this weekend will further shape fantasy projections for the coming season, the results of this Slow Draft have been quite interesting and have provided a glimpse into what fantasy owners can expect when their drafts begin for the 2009 season.

One of the strongest signals being sent out is this one: Don't expect the first round to be dominated by running backs. In years past, the running back position was the one position nearly every owner in the opening round chased after. The common belief was you had to begin your draft with a strong RB or else you would suffer the consequences as the season went along.

No longer is that the case.

While running backs were targeted with the opening few picks of this NFFC mock draft, the increase of production by wide receivers (especially in leagues such as the NFFC which use a point-per-reception format) have generated a strong amount of interest in that position. Let's take a look at how this NFFC draft unfolded in the first round:

1. Maurice Jones-Drew
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Matt Forte
4. Brian Westbrook
5. Larry Fitzgerald
6. Frank Gore
7. DeAngelo Williams
8. Andre Johnson
9. Steven Jackson
10. Michael Turner
11 Randy Moss
12. Steve Slaton
13. Reggie Wayne
14. Calvin Johnson

The first four picks were all running backs although there were some new faces at the top of the list. With Fred Taylor gone, Maurice Jones-Drew's value has soared and Matt Forte proved last season he has the stuff elite fantasy RBs are made of. Keep in mind, this draft began before the arrival of Jay Cutler in Chicago. Cutler's presence will force defenses from loading up to stop Forte and that will make life even easier for the second-year RB. Don't be surprised to see Forte go as high as No. 1 overall in some drafts this year. He's that good.

But after the first four picks then the fun began.

Larry Fitzgerald's sterling 2008 season has vaulted him to the top of the wide receiver list and he's moved well into the first round as well, going fifth in this draft. But he wasn't the only WR targeted early. Andre Johnson (8th), Randy Moss (11th), Reggie Wayne (13th) and Calvin Johnson (14th) all went in the first round of this draft. That's five WRs taken among the first 14 picks, an unheard of number for non-RBs compared to recent years.

The run on WRs didn't stop there, however. Let's take a look at the second round of this draft:

15. Chris Johnson
16. Roddy White
17. Brandon Marshall
18. Marques Colston
19. Brandon Jacobs
20. Marion Barber
21. Marshawn Lynch
22. Greg Jennings
23. Steve Smith
24. Anquan Boldin
25. LaDainian Tomlinson
26. Drew Brees
27. Wes Welker
28. Pierre Thomas

Seven more WRs went in the second round, meaning a total of 12 receivers were taken among the first 28 picks in this draft. That's nearly 50 percent of the picks going to a position other than running back. That's one of the things I expect to see this season - a run on WRs early in many drafts. So if you're targeting one or two of the top wide receivers, you'll need to act quickly.

One of the results of this, however, is more quality running backs will be available after the first round than ever before. The second round of this draft, for example, was filled with quality RBs. Chris Johnson was a Top 10 RB in many scoring systems last season; Marion Barber has been a Top 10 RB in the past and LaDainian Tomlinson, of course, has been the premier RB in fantasy.

Tomlinson's value is tough to gauge, however. He's coming off another season which saw him sidelined late in the year with an injury and his production declined as a result. His 1,110 rushing yards were the fewest of his career and his 11 touchdowns were the second-lowest total of his career. Combine two consecutive seasons of declining production with the emergence of Darren Sproles and LT has suddenly become a high-risk pick. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him dip into the third round of NFFC drafts before it's all said and done.

Pierre Thomas represents a RB on the opposite end of the spectrum. His value has risen significantly since the end of last season. He closed out the 2008 campaign with a flurry, topping 75 yards rushing five times in the final six games, while also scoring nine touchdowns in that span. If the Saints do not select a running back early in this weekend's draft, Thomas' position of importance should be cemented for the high-powered Saints in 2009.

The third and fourth rounds settled into a more familiar pattern with a heavy emphasis on tight ends and quarterbacks. Here's a look at those two rounds with this draft also utilizing Third Round Reversal (meaning the first pick in Round 3 went to Team 14 instead of Team 1):

29. Clinton Portis
30. Jason Witten
31. Dwayne Bowe
32. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
33. Tony Gonzalez
34. Antonio Gates
35. Ronnie Brown
36. Eddie Royal
37. Thomas Jones
38. Joseph Addai
39. Ryan Grant
40. Terrell Owens
41. Braylon Edwards
42. Antonio Bryant

43. Chad Johnson
44. Peyton Manning
45. Reggie Bush
46. Torry Holt
47. Tom Brady
48. Jay Cutler
49. Kevin Smith
50. Philip Rivers
51. Tony Romo
52. Aaron Rodgers
53. Larry Johnson
54. Lance Moore
55. Kurt Warner
56. Carson Palmer

Three TEs were taken in the third round as the elite picks at that position were snapped up. In the fourth round, the NFFC owners turned their attention to quarterbacks, who receive six points per touchdown pass in NFFC scoring. Drew Brees was the only QB taken in the first two rounds but Round 4 saw quite a few quarterbacks come flying off the board. Eight of the 14 picks in that round were QBs. If this trend holds, it will lead many owners on Draft Day to consider using a pick in the first 4-5 rounds to secure a starting QB they feel comfortable with.

This weekend's draft will provide further clarity on what fantasy owners can expect for their own drafts this season. Matt Ryan's value, for example, has gone through the roof thanks to the addition of Tony Gonzalez. Meanwhile, Matt Cassel's potential to follow up his strong 2008 finish with a standout '09 season in Kansas City suffered a major blow when that trade was made.

So plenty of adjustments to rankings and potential production for the 2009 season are forthcoming. One thing that may not change when fantasy owners begin their prep work for 2009 is the increased emphasis on wide receivers in the early rounds of their drafts. Drafting a WR in the first round the past few years was viewed as more of a gamble than a sure-fire means of success.

Not anymore.

Now targeting a WR early makes plenty of sense and if you have a pick in the 5-10 range in the opening round, grabbing one of the elite WRs such as Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson is a fine option given their production and the likely possibility there will still be enough quality at RB available after Round 1 to give you the production you will need at that still vital position.



 

Tom Kessenich is the event director of the NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship and the NBC Sports Fantasy Baseball Championship. Go to fantasybaseballchampionship.com for more details on how you can win a $100,000 grand prize. Kessenich has also been the managing editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine since 1999.
Contact Tom Kessenich
 
 
Top 10 NFL Player Searches
Listed below are the highest searched players over the last seven days.

1.C.Benson NFL (6901)
2.M.Turner NFL (5788)
3.R.Brown NFL (5554)
4.B.Westbrook NFL (3713)
5.J.Snelling NFL (3463)
6.J.Forsett NFL (3298)
7.K.Orton NFL (3120)
8.J.Norwood NFL (3119)
9.B.Scott NFL (3023)
10.L.Johnson NFL (3018)
NFL HEADLINES
NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship Articles
Tom Kessenich Articles

BACK TO TOP PRINTER FRIENDLY NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship Archives Share via Facebook Share via Facebook
Fantasy Basketball Season Pass
Playoff Edition - Fantasy Football Season Pass
Fantasy Football - SnapDraft