Firstly, the 2014 Rotoworld PL Cup 2nd round results from Week 25 are up, so click here to check out whether you made it through to Round 3. Please note the WEEK 25 bit is key. I have been bombarded with emails from readers over the past week who believe I have calculated the results incorrectly, but in every case this has been because the individual believed the results related to Week 26. Round 2 was Week 25 people, Week 25.
Before I get in to it, please take a moment to read some of the content my colleagues have put out on Rotoworld PL this week. Galin's "Don't Believe The Hype” column includes some statistical analysis that could be of particular interest to the geeks among us, while Jeremy and Steve have both given their opinions on the week ahead.
Check out The Week 27 Free Kick | The Week 27 First XI
Now this is my first Player Picks post since Week 23, and in that time things have not been going well. AM FC is officially in a slump. From hitting the giddy heights of the top 400 in early January I now find myself down in 1583rd overall after a run of shocking weekly scores. Some of it has been bad luck (which the majority of us experienced in Week 26 due to last minute postponements), but it's mostly been down to poor decision making on my part. With twelve game-weeks left the target of a top 500 finish is slipping away, so I need to turn things around quickly. Let's look at the fixtures:
Get all of your Premier League news at RotoWorld
Week 27 Fixtures
Arsenal v Sunderland
Cardiff City v Hull City
Chelsea v Everton
Crystal Palace v Man Utd
Liverpool v Swansea
Man City v Stoke
Newcastle v Aston Villa
Norwich v Tottenham
West Brom v Fulham
West Ham v Southampton
At this stage of the season it's fairly clear as to which teams you can trust and which teams you can't. You can almost always back the current Top 6 to win the games they should win, but below that it's a lottery, especially in the bottom half of the table where anybody can beat anybody. The bottom eleven sides taking points off each other is the reason just 4 points separate 10th position and the relegation zone, and why we're set for the tightest battle to avoid the drop for many years. Trust the top teams - don't trust the strugglers.
From the above list of fixtures, Liverpool versus Swansea at Anfield, Arsenal hosting Sunderland and Manchester City at home to Stoke are the three games that leap off the page. Liverpool are flying, while Arsenal and City will be looking to vent their frustrations after controversial defeats in the Champions League. Throw in-form Tottenham's trip to struggling Norwich in to the mix and you have the four key teams to focus on for Week 27, so you should be fielding at least a couple of players from each side. It's important to remember that the Premier League fixtures are taking place just a few days after those gruelling midweek matches (and a long journey to the Ukraine for Spurs), so rotation could come in to play and we'll focus on this in Friday's team and injury news post. The team safe from this risk are Liverpool as they aren't competing in Europe this season, so if you're going to load up on one team in particular then they remain your best bet.
Chelsea at home to Everton is a game I'm looking forward to watching, but it's not one I'll be getting invested in for fantasy purposes as I can't call it either way. Chelsea are playing well, but so are Everton, who were extremely unlucky to lose to Spurs a couple of weeks ago. It's on TV here in the UK and is the early Saturday kick-off, so we'll get line-ups before the Yahoo deadline. I'll ensure these are tweeted out, so follow me and our Rotoworld_PL account if you're planning to pick any Chelsea or Everton representatives.
Personally, I'm avoiding Manchester United players for their trip to a revived Crystal Palace, David Moyes has the look of a man out of his depth at the moment and this appears to have filtered through to his players. There is a lack of an effective game-plan and a clear lack of confidence, which is a complete contrast to how Tony Pulis has his side playing at the moment, as he continues to work wonders both on the pitch and in the transfer market. While United undoubtedly have the attacking quality to win this one, I'm not sure they have the belief and so it will be going down as a draw on my coupon.
Another side lacking confidence are Newcastle United, on a run of 3-0, 3-0 and 4-0 defeats since the sale of Yohan Cabaye. Aston Villa are coming to town and they have a decent away record so they should fancy their chances of nicking at least a point, and possibly all three. Back in London, West Ham are improving and have won three games in a row against Swansea, Villa and Norwich, but Southampton are a cut above those sides and will feel they can still catch 7th placed Manchester United, so I expect the Saints to grab the victory at Upton Park.
West Brom versus Fulham is difficult to predict as we don't know how Fulham's players will react to yet another managerial change, but if you were leaning either way it would be with the home side. Finally Cardiff v Hull looks like a low scoring draw, and it's a match best avoided in my opinion, with better options available elsewhere.
With all that in mind, click over to the next page to view the Week 27 player recommendations ...
Firstly, the 2014 Rotoworld PL Cup 2nd round results from Week 25 are up, so click here to check out whether you made it through to Round 3. Please note the WEEK 25 bit is key. I have been bombarded with emails from readers over the past week who believe I have calculated the results incorrectly, but in every case this has been because the individual believed the results related to Week 26. Round 2 was Week 25 people, Week 25.
Before I get in to it, please take a moment to read some of the content my colleagues have put out on Rotoworld PL this week. Galin's "Don't Believe The Hype” column includes some statistical analysis that could be of particular interest to the geeks among us, while Jeremy and Steve have both given their opinions on the week ahead.
Check out The Week 27 Free Kick | The Week 27 First XI
Now this is my first Player Picks post since Week 23, and in that time things have not been going well. AM FC is officially in a slump. From hitting the giddy heights of the top 400 in early January I now find myself down in 1583rd overall after a run of shocking weekly scores. Some of it has been bad luck (which the majority of us experienced in Week 26 due to last minute postponements), but it's mostly been down to poor decision making on my part. With twelve game-weeks left the target of a top 500 finish is slipping away, so I need to turn things around quickly. Let's look at the fixtures:
Get all of your Premier League news at RotoWorld
Week 27 Fixtures
Arsenal v Sunderland
Cardiff City v Hull City
Chelsea v Everton
Crystal Palace v Man Utd
Liverpool v Swansea
Man City v Stoke
Newcastle v Aston Villa
Norwich v Tottenham
West Brom v Fulham
West Ham v Southampton
At this stage of the season it's fairly clear as to which teams you can trust and which teams you can't. You can almost always back the current Top 6 to win the games they should win, but below that it's a lottery, especially in the bottom half of the table where anybody can beat anybody. The bottom eleven sides taking points off each other is the reason just 4 points separate 10th position and the relegation zone, and why we're set for the tightest battle to avoid the drop for many years. Trust the top teams - don't trust the strugglers.
From the above list of fixtures, Liverpool versus Swansea at Anfield, Arsenal hosting Sunderland and Manchester City at home to Stoke are the three games that leap off the page. Liverpool are flying, while Arsenal and City will be looking to vent their frustrations after controversial defeats in the Champions League. Throw in-form Tottenham's trip to struggling Norwich in to the mix and you have the four key teams to focus on for Week 27, so you should be fielding at least a couple of players from each side. It's important to remember that the Premier League fixtures are taking place just a few days after those gruelling midweek matches (and a long journey to the Ukraine for Spurs), so rotation could come in to play and we'll focus on this in Friday's team and injury news post. The team safe from this risk are Liverpool as they aren't competing in Europe this season, so if you're going to load up on one team in particular then they remain your best bet.
Chelsea at home to Everton is a game I'm looking forward to watching, but it's not one I'll be getting invested in for fantasy purposes as I can't call it either way. Chelsea are playing well, but so are Everton, who were extremely unlucky to lose to Spurs a couple of weeks ago. It's on TV here in the UK and is the early Saturday kick-off, so we'll get line-ups before the Yahoo deadline. I'll ensure these are tweeted out, so follow me and our Rotoworld_PL account if you're planning to pick any Chelsea or Everton representatives.
Personally, I'm avoiding Manchester United players for their trip to a revived Crystal Palace, David Moyes has the look of a man out of his depth at the moment and this appears to have filtered through to his players. There is a lack of an effective game-plan and a clear lack of confidence, which is a complete contrast to how Tony Pulis has his side playing at the moment, as he continues to work wonders both on the pitch and in the transfer market. While United undoubtedly have the attacking quality to win this one, I'm not sure they have the belief and so it will be going down as a draw on my coupon.
Another side lacking confidence are Newcastle United, on a run of 3-0, 3-0 and 4-0 defeats since the sale of Yohan Cabaye. Aston Villa are coming to town and they have a decent away record so they should fancy their chances of nicking at least a point, and possibly all three. Back in London, West Ham are improving and have won three games in a row against Swansea, Villa and Norwich, but Southampton are a cut above those sides and will feel they can still catch 7th placed Manchester United, so I expect the Saints to grab the victory at Upton Park.
West Brom versus Fulham is difficult to predict as we don't know how Fulham's players will react to yet another managerial change, but if you were leaning either way it would be with the home side. Finally Cardiff v Hull looks like a low scoring draw, and it's a match best avoided in my opinion, with better options available elsewhere.
With all that in mind, click over to the next page to view the Week 27 player recommendations ...
Get all of your Premier League news at RotoWorld
KEEPERS
Joe Hart - With Szczesny and Cech approaching the £17million mark, it is Hart who appears to represent the best value from the premium keepers this week. Manchester City are at home to Stoke, a game they should win to nil as they look the rebound from the Barcelona disappointment, so if you have the money he'd be my keeper pick.
Hugo Lloris - A trip to struggling Norwich gives Tottenham the opportunity to keep the pressure on the top four and with Lloris in his best form of the season, a clean sheet is very possible. It's no coincidence that the team are looking more solid since Jan Vertonghen returned to the heart of the defence.
Ben Foster - If you don't have the money for either of the men above then your attention should turn to Foster, whose value has dropped to a shade over £4million. A home game against Fulham is certainly winnable for a side who have recently held Chelsea, so he's currently in my Week 27 team.
DEFENDERS
Per Mertesacker - Despite Arsenal's recent slip-ups the giant defender continues to look good at the back, but he has missed a whole host of chances in recent game-weeks. By my calculations he's due a goal from a set piece and could also pick up clean sheet points against Sunderland, so Mertesacker is my top defensive pick.
Aleksandar Kolarov - Deployed on the left of midfield against Barcelona, he was subbed after Martin Demichelis sending off, while Gael Clichy played the full 90 minutes, so Kolarov should start against Stoke and we all know what he's capable of.
Branislav Ivanovic - Chelsea's right-back had been in my FPL team since the beginning of the season, but I dropped him a few weeks ago after some disappointing returns. Right on cue, Ivanovic has hit form with two goals and an assist in his last three games. He tends to grab his attacking point in patches, so if you're on the bandwagon he's well worth hanging on to despite a tough game against Everton.
Mathieu Debuchy - Although Newcastle took a hammering at the hands of Tottenham, the Frenchman returned a mightily impressive 15 points, which suggests he's not planning on giving up just yet, even if the rest of his team-mates have. I've tipped Villa to cause the home side problems but that doesn't make Debuchy a bad pick, as he acquires fantasy points from so many different situations.
Jon Flanagan - The cheapest guaranteed starter in Liverpool's defence, Flanagan is a good choice with a home game against Swansea. Daniel Agger is also tempting if he's set to replace Kolo Toure.
Younes Kaboul - A fully fit Kaboul remains one of the best central defenders in the league, and he was superb on his return in Week 26. I'd take a guess that he'll be spared a run-out in the Europa League to ensure he's fresh for the Norwich game, which would make him a terrific option priced below £10million.
Joleon Lescott - We await Friday's team news, but after another calamitous performance from Demichelis in midweek (and with Nastasic out injured), it could be time for Manuel Pellegrini to give Lescott his chance alongside Vincent Kompany. If this is the case he'd be an affordable way to cover the potential City clean sheet against Stoke. Check team news on Friday.
Ryan Bertrand - On loan from Chelsea, Bertrand has made a decent start for Villa and appears to have secured the left-back spot for the rest of the season. I'm lucky enough to own him at 1.00 and he's been sitting on my bench, but he could get a place in the starting XI for Week 27. Even at his current price of £5.4million, he's worth considering if you need a cheap defender.
MIDFIELDERS
Steven Gerrard - You need at least one Liverpool midfielder in your team against Swansea this weekend, and Captain Gerrard is the man if you can afford him. In form, seven goals, nine assists, solid defensive points, accurate set piece delivery, penalty taker, match winner.
Santi Cazorla - Extremely consistent since breaking back in to the first team after injury, which has been vital for Arsenal with Aaron Ramsey and Theo Walcott missing and Mesut Ozil out of form. Cazorla's price is high but a home game against Sunderland gives him an opportunity to keep up his good form and he'll be fresh after his early substitution in mid-week.
Raheem Sterling - Gerrard is my first choice, but if you can't afford him then you have two great Liverpool alternatives. With the young England winger and the man below, Coutinho, both priced the same it really is "toss a coin" time if you're picking between them. Sterling has been excellent as a right sided forward, particularly at Anfield where he seems to get in to the box more often, so he would get the slight edge for me this week.
Philippe Coutinho - But Coutinho is still an excellent option. His tendency to shoot-on-sight can build up fantasy points very quickly, and he's always capable of an assist due to his vision and passing ability.
Adam Lallana - Tied with Gerrard as the top scoring midfielder in the Yahoo game and surely ready to start alongside the England captain at the World Cup in June. Lallana is having a phenomenal season and remains a fine choice for Southampton's trip to West Ham.
Yaya Toure - Manchester City have Fernandinho back, which should mean he can return to roaming the more advanced areas of the field. Don't be surprised if the lanky midfielder adds to his impressive haul of 12 goals against Stoke. On direct free-kick duty (scoring 4 out of 5 attempts) and penalty duty (in Aguero's absence - 3 from 3 attempts), Yaya should be under consideration.
Chris Brunt - Out-of-favour towards the end of Steve Clarke's reign, but Pepe Mel has restored Brunt to the starting line-up and the midfielder has been performing well. The stats show an average of 10 Yahoo points per games over the past eight game-weeks and the set piece specialist could be in line for another strong showing at home to Fulham.
Paulinho - With Tottenham reverting back to a 4-5-1 in recent weeks, Paulinho becomes a vital cog in the machine, making forward runs from midfield in support of Adebayor. He popped up with a goal and 16 points against Newcastle and will get opportunities for another big week against Norwich.
Samir Nasri - Back from injury, Nasri produced a nice cameo and goal against Chelsea before replacing Jesus Navas for half an hour against Barcelona. He looks sharp and should be ready to start against Stoke, costing just £10million.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain - All five of the Ox's Premier League goals and all five of his Premier League assists have come at the Emirates. He's on my bench, but it's stats like that (thanks Opta) which make you think he's worth a start at home to Sunderland.
Lewis Holtby - Affordable at less than £7million and playing in the number 10 role, don't expect fireworks from Holtby but he's certainly capable of a double digit scores so could be a good bench option.
STRIKERS
Luis Suarez - Only one goal in his last five league games, but only a fool doubts him. Home to Swansea, he'll remain the captain of AM FC and I'm expecting bumper points.
Daniel Sturridge - There is certainly an argument for including both Liverpool strikers in your starting XI this weekend. Sturridge is on a phenomenal run of scoring in seven consecutive league games and it would be a huge surprise if he didn't make that eight against Swansea.
Emmanuel Adebayor - You feel if could all collapse at any moment, but right now Adebayor is displaying the level of ability that led Manchester City to spend £25million on him. A match-winning display at Newcastle has caused his price to rocket but he could be worth the money against Norwich. Currently in my team.
Stevan Jovetic - It's doubtful that Sergio Aguero will be risked and Alvaro Negredo is looking a little fatigued having playing a huge amount of football in his first Premier League season, so Jovetic is likely to get the start against Sunderland. He's showing signs of adapting to English football now his injuries are behind him, and cannot be ignored when priced below £10million
Robin van Persie - Despite what I stated in my fixture analysis, class is permanent and if Manchester United are to grab a vital three points at Crystal Palace then you feel van Persie will be the man to inspire it. Penalty duty gives him the edge over Wayne Rooney.
Ricky Lambert - With Daniel Osvaldo banished, Lambert is Southampton’s number one central striker again and he's been back to his best in recent weeks. The England man has scored or assisted four of his side's last six goals and will cause the West Ham defence all sorts of problems.
Christian Benteke - The old Benteke is slowly returning, much to Paul Lambert's relief, and the powerful forward will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing a make-shift defence who have shipped ten goals in their last three league games. Benteke himself has two goals in two games against Newcastle and is on penalties, so is worth considering.
Shane Long - I've always rated Long and was surprised West Brom let him go. His work-rate is unmatched by any striker other than the likes of Luis Suarez or Carlos Tevez, he can hold the ball up, is decent on the floor and most importantly, can score goals at this level. Hull have got themselves a very good player and I expect him to do well against Cardiff. An interesting alternative option if you're looking to do something different.
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So those are the players I'm considering for my Week 27 Yahoo team. There are some risky options included that require double checking on Friday, but hopefully it offers a bit of variety.
For now I have the following on my own team page:
XI: Foster, Bertrand, Kaboul, Mertesacker, Paulinho, Lallana, Yaya, Gerrard, Sturridge, Adebayor, Suarez (C)
Subs: Oxlade-Chamberlain, Bardsley, Spence, Davis
It's perhaps a little bit heavy on Liverpool and Spurs while lacking in Arsenal and Man City players at the moment, so there's work to do.
How's your Week 27 team looking?