Galin Dragiev

Daily Fantasy Soccer

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Daily Fantasy Soccer: Week 7

Friday, September 29, 2017


Welcome back for Week 7! We are in the last week of the Premier League before we take a break for the international matches and it comes with some intrigue. Sergio Aguero was in a car accident in the Netherlands and has been ruled out for the upcoming match, potentially set to miss 6-8 weeks. That puts Manchester City under a lot of pressure, having to sustain their league-top position without their top player for several weeks. The first test is potentially the hardest, a road match at Stamford Bridge against third-place Chelsea. We’ll talk about that game last since it’s the latest game on the slate, but let’s dive into some of the other games first.

 

Stoke City – Southampton

This is a tough match to predict as it features two very well-matched teams. You can argue Stoke are worse, which they are, but they are also at home to a team that struggles to attack away from home. Southampton is barely favored, but a draw is the most likely outcome in this one if you ask me. No one features better odds to score than Manolo Gabbiadini, who is at 15/8, and the game is underwhelmingly favored to stay under 2.5 goals.

 

Southampton will keep their formation tight and defend on the road, so it’s hard to even pay for goalkeepers here as I don’t think there will be a lot of shots.  If anyone, I’d use Jack Butland, whose price makes it worth a target to bet on his chances of a clean sheet. On sites that reward points for crosses, Ryan Bertrand and Cedric Soares are in play. One player who’s played well but is sitting on just one goal (and zero assists) this season is Dusan Tadic. He’s playing the minutes and creating chances for his teammates to where he should be considered in tournaments at this price in a relatively soft matchup.

 

West Ham – Swansea

This game features two bad Premier League teams that desperately need some points. West Ham sits 18th, in the relegation zone, and will cherish a home matchup against Swansea. The match us favored to stay under 2.5 goals but these teams have shown a tendency to get into random high-scoring affairs and have the ability to produce a 2-2 type match. My preference is for the home team, as they’re favored to win and should spend more time attacking. Chicharito has three goals in six Premier League matches this season and should be considered in tournaments.  Andy Carroll has only played three games and has failed to score in all three. However, the shots have been there (12 shots in those three matches) and if he starts, he is an even better tournament option than Chicarito as he’ll come at lower ownership.

 

If West Ham is attacking and don’t score, Lukasz Fabianski should get plenty of save opportunities, and he’s in play in tournaments where you don’t use West Ham attackers. When it comes to Swansea’s attacking options, I am uninspired. There is nothing reliable to pursue, and their players don’t have the upside needed to win tournaments, so I am staying away.

 

Bournemouth – Leicester City

Two fun teams face off here that are evenly matched. Both find themselves in the bottom four of the league and both can’t defend, so we should be in for a fun one. The over/under is favored to go over 2.5 goals at 4/5 odds and that presents us with a lot of undervalues options.

 

From Bournemouth, my favorite target is Joshua King, who has started the season off slow but finally found the back of the net last week at Everton. Bournemouth has had a tough schedule to start off, so he’ll relish a shot establishing a goal streak against Leicester City. He should be under-owned in tournaments for the upside he presents. Jermain Defoe has also only scored once and is viable in tournaments, although my preference goes to King.  In midfield, the often-injured Junior Stanislas returned last week and played very well. He is a target in all formats and should be fully fit considering he played 90 minutes last time out.

 

On Leicester City’s side, the big news is that Jamie Vardy isn’t fully fit and will need to pass a late fitness test. He is a tournament option if he starts, but there isn’t a guarantee he can go 90 minutes. The option I like better is Riyad Mahrez, who hasn’t played very well to start off the season but is very adequately priced and provides an upside in this matchup. He should be very, very low owned.

 

West Brom – Watford

Another game without a clear favorite. West Brom’s defensive prowess has resulted in this game being given 8/15 odds to stay under 2.5 goals!  That’s insane! Those odds don’t fare well for fantasy production in this match, especially with so much of the fantasy points resulting from goals. The one player I would consider from this match is Jose Holebas, who finds ways into set pieces and get involved on both sides of the ball.  From West Brom, Ben Foster is underpriced for his ability to keep a clean sheet in this matchup, where the odds are 11/8.

 

Manchester United – Crystal Palace

This is the match many fantasy players will want to target. Crystal Palace remains point-less in the Premier League, while Manchester United are tied for first. The distance between them couldn’t be wider. Crystal Palace also remains scoreless, as they haven’t found the back of the net in their first six games while allowing 13 goals. They’ll try to play defensive here and look to grind out a 0-0 draw, but the chances are against them. In cash games, Manchester United exposure is a must. Romelu Lukaku has been scoring at will and should be highly owned, so having him is probably a good idea regardless of if he scores or not.

 

In tournaments, the options are plenty, and I recommend exposure to Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Juan Mata, Lukaku, and Anthony Martial (of Marcus Rashford, whoever starts). The amount of exposure to Manchester to have in tournaments is certainly a conversation to be had. If you think Crystal Palace park the bus well and keep Manchester United to one or two goals, there are opportunities to go with just one Manchester player in your lineups and get exposure to other games that could see more goals, such as the Bournemouth one. But if you think Manchester score 3+ goals, you should probably have at least two United players in every lineup. I’ll likely have a mixture, averaging around 1.5 – 2 Manchester players per lineup.

 

Chelsea – Manchester City

The match of the day starts late, but it will be worth waiting for. Chelsea face off against Manchester City and will try to close the three-point gap between them.  Both teams have been stellar on both attack and defense, so it’s tough to predict where this game goes. Knowing Chelsea, I expect them to stay conservative at the beginning, and more open as the game progresses. If there aren’t any early goals, it will be tough for these teams to score more than two goals combined, especially with Manchester United missing Sergio Aguero.

 

In terms of who to target, I am a big fan of going after Eden hazard this week. He remains underpriced and has been fantastic. Alvaro Morata will likely get more ownership than he deserves at this price, as I don’t think his scoring is sustainable at this rate (six goals in six matches), so I’ll likely avoid him this weekend. Gabriel Jesus is expensive but viable if you think he’ll be low owned.  The biggest opportunity here is likely the goalkeepers, who should both see enough work to have plenty of save opportunities but also have a shot at a clean sheet.

 

Best of luck tomorrow!



Galin Dragiev is a Rotoworld contributor that focuses on Daily Fantasy Soccer and contributes for a number of outlets in the industry. You can find him on Twitter at @GalinDragiev.
Email :Galin Dragiev





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