Neal Thurman

FPL Draft

print article archives RSS

FPL Scoring By Team, Part 1

Monday, July 9, 2018


As new transfers come into the transfer market, fantasy managers - myself included, get very excited for their potential.  Perhaps they've earned their shot at Premier League fame and riches by putting up gaudy stats in the Championship or the Eredivisie.  Perhaps they've come with slightly less outrageous stats via one of the other top leagues in Europe like Serie A, La Liga, or the Bundesliga.  They might even be arriving from a Premier League rival whether they are moving up to a bigger club after starring farther down the table or making the reverse journey after failing to make the grade among the big fish.  However they arrived, as fantasy managers we have to figure out how they might perform at their new destination.

One of the tools we have to evaluate potential performance is how each team in the Premier League performed in producing fantasy points overall last season with the supposition that teams rarely vary TOO widely in their aggregate production of fantasy points, the questions typically revolve around who is going to get the points created rather than supposing that a mid-table club is all of a sudden going to start producing fantasy points like Liverpool or Manchester City.  

In the first of our two parts in this series, I'll look at overall team scoring and home vs away splits to see how this can inform us about draft strategy and then tomorrow I'll be back to break down each club by position to see if that adds any additional insight into non-obvious position groups that might be particularly promising heading into your draft. 

CLUB TOTAL HOME AWAY
ARS 1754 1107 638
BHA 1398 764 634
BOU 1355 693 662
BUR 1514 765 749
CHE 1906 1006 900
CRY 1448 767 681
EVE 1432 820 612
HUD 1292 727 565
LEI 1450 765 685
LIV 2072 1179 893
MUN 2012 1083 929
MCI 2233 1167 1077
NEW 1472 834 638
SOU 1350 658 692
STK 1270 664 606
SWA 1416 748 668
TOT 1930 1046 884
WAT 137 731 636
WHU 1414 795 619
WBA 1351 747 604

Here are some notes that I found interesting looking through the data: 

  • Arsenal sat in a tier by themselves last season well above "the rest" but significantly below the top five and it was almost entirely based on their away form.  Yes, this matches up with the narratives that you'll find about Arsenal the real life club but for fantasy managers, the notion of treating Arsenal players as premium starters when playing away from home shows itself to be a poor decision.  As a club, Arsenal looked like a relegation-threatened club in fantasy point production away from the Emirates.  Maybe that changes with new management and what appears to be almost an entirely new defensive group.  The point is that most managers probably let the Arsenal brand name, developed over many seasons, shade their inclusion of Arsenal players in the starting line-ups despite the evidence that they shouldn't be included when playing away from home. 
  • Manchester City, on the other hand, showed almost no Home/Road differences.  They were dominant at home, they were dominant on the road.  The old saw of "think about benching X player because he's on the road" just didn't stand up for City the same way it did for Liverpool, Spurs, and Mancheseter United.  Chelsea actually looked more similar to Manchester City albeit with lower overall totals both home and away. 
  • Speaking of narrative-busting, the popular line on Burnley is that they offered up dramatic home/road splits with the notion of Fortress Turf Moor gaining traction.  While this may have been true two seasons ago, it wasn't even close from a fantasy point perspective last season.  Another good reminder to check your assumptions.  
  • In place of the Fortress Turf Moor narrative maybe we should have been talking about Fortress Goodison or Fortress St James Park.  Yes, Arsenal and Liverpool both had bigger aggregate splits but when you're talking about mid-table players being rotated in and out of fantasy line-ups and squads, Everton and Newcastle players were the ones with the biggest upside/downside based on whether they were playing at home or on the road. 
Overall, the takeaway should be that all Premier League teams are not created equally.  Yes, there will occasionally be a Gylfi Sigurdsson, Pascal Gross, or Dimitri Payet who come in to a mid-table (or worse) club and produce fantasy points at an exceptional pace compared to the overall production of their team.  Maybe one or two of those players show up per season.  More frequently we are left with a choice between regular starters on mid-level teams that don't produce a ton of fantasy points vs a rotational player on a big team that produces a significantly higher volume of fantasy points as a group.  
 
When looking at the prospects of any new player coming into a team I have typically been a proponent of understanding both their talent and their opportunity.  The obvious definition of opportunity is how many minutes they will get to produce results.  That definition isn't broad enough, using data like this on team performance should help you expand that definition to "how many minutes are they likely to get AND how productive have those minutes been in the past for others?"
 
I'll be back tomorrow breaking down teams by position group to help determine if there are position groups that you should be targeting outside of the big clubs that are more prone to producing either bigger point totals in aggregate or smaller numbers of players over which those points are distributed. 


Neal Thurman manages the Rotoworld's Premier League coverage and contributes to Never Manage Alone which he co-founded. He is also a diehard Arsenal supporter. You can find him on Twitter @NealJThurman.
Email :Neal Thurman



Highest Searched Players over the last 7 days



Video Center

  •  
    Player News: Week 3

    Player News: Week 3
  •  
    Top DFS Values

    Top DFS Values
  •  
    Dose: Browns Win

    Dose: Browns Win
  •  
    Dose: Limited Landry

    Dose: Limited Landry
  •  
    Dose: Wentz returns for PHI

    Dose: Wentz returns for PHI
  •  
    Dose: Mahomes dazzles

    Dose: Mahomes dazzles
  •  
    SNF Success for Engram?

    SNF Success for Engram?
  •  
    Dose: Green Dominates

    Dose: Green Dominates