Adam Levitan

Ranking Rookies

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Fantasy Rookie Rankings

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

It’s not going to be the best year for rookies in re-draft fantasy leagues. Last season, we had a four-pack of teams that appeared to select their feature back in the NFL draft (Eddie LacyLe’Veon BellGio BernardMontee Ball). This year, it’s just one (Bishop Sankey) and the running back class as a whole simply isn’t that talented. 

Of course, players are going to seemingly come out of nowhere. Andre Ellington was only on the “honorable mention” portion of this column last year and Keenan Allen came in at No. 16. Put all these rookies on your radar and track depth-chart progress throughout the offseason.

Here’s how I would rank the 2014 rookies for re-draft if I was selecting today:

1. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans
The Titans entered the draft as the only team in the league with a true hole atop their running back depth chart. To fill that void, they made Washington’s Bishop Sankey the first running back off the board at No. 54 overall. We can argue that Ohio State’s Carlos Hyde or LSU’s Jeremy Hill would have been better picks, but the Titans tabbed Sankey as their man while making Tiki Barber comparisons. They obviously have faith. 

So Sankey enters an ideal situation for first-year running back value. Shonn Greene has averaged 3.84 YPC over the last two seasons and couldn’t even make it through last week’s three-day minicamp without needing his right knee scoped (the same knee that crippled him last season). Inconsistent and inaccurate Jake Locker will be protected by a run-heavy approach. The offensive line is a strong-suit featuring LT Michael Roos, LG Andy Levitre, RG Chance Warmack and No. 11 overall pick Taylor Lewan. Even if Greene gets his knee right, expect Sankey to lead the Titans in carries and push for 260-plus touches.  

2. Mike Evans, WR, Bucs
Over the last two years, 75 percent of fantasy’s top-10 wideouts have been 6-foot-3 or taller. The only ones to buck the trend are Antonio BrownDeSean JacksonDez Bryant (twice) and Roddy White. It’s yet another sign of the NFL growing into a jump ball league, one that throws at receivers even when defenders are in their hip pocket. That’s exactly where Mike Evans excels, and that’s where Josh McCown proved he can win last year while lobbing to 6-foot-4 Brandon Marshall, 6-foot-3 Alshon Jeffery and 6-foot-6 Martellus Bennett

McCown certainly takes a major hit now that he’s out of Marc Trestman’s special scheme, but the Bucs are building their own version of that “basketball style” offense. Evans is going to be a focal point of it. He’ll play every down opposite Vincent Jackson, with Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Brandon Myers also on the field in a lot of “12" formations. Evans projects as a touchdown machine right out of the gate. 

3. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
The Bills surrendered a 2015 first-round pick to go up and get Sammy Watkins. Then they traded away veteran receiver Stevie Johnson. So we know they’re going to feature Watkins heavily as the clear-cut No. 1 wideout. My questions here don’t lie in talent, as Watkins is a true freak that was a first-team All-American as a freshman. My question is in E.J. Manuel, whose inconsistencies as a rookie were a bit troubling. Watkins will help Manuel with plenty of screens and YAC plays, but will that be enough for reliable WR3 value? Those betting on Watkins are also taking a leap of faith on Manuel.

4. Johnny Manziel, QB, Browns
Let’s get this “Brian Hoyer is our starter” coachspeak out of the way immediately. Hoyer played well for a brief stretch last season, but he’s a former UDFA that is coming off an ACL tear. Manziel won’t be just be handed the job, but it would be a humiliation if he doesn’t simply win it outright. 

So what can Johnny Football do with the gig? Well, things looked a lot brighter before we learned Josh Gordon is facing a year-long suspension. Without Gordon, the Browns will employ more of a conservative, run-based attack that relies on their defense. But Manziel’s fantasy upside didn’t come from his arm anyway. It came from his legs, which produced 2,169 rushing yards and 30 rushing touchdowns in 26 games at Texas A&M (per-game averages of 83.4 yards, 1.15 touchdowns). I liked this quote on Manziel from one personnel man to CBS’ Jason La Canfora:

“He thinks more like a running back than (Robert) Griffin, much more. Griffin is a straight-line track guy, and that’s part of the reason he’ll get hurt more. Manziel plays quarterback like a running back.” 

Quarterbacks that run have long been the stuff fantasy dreams are made of. Even Tim Tebow was a rock-solid QB1 weekly when he was starting. Manziel will settle in as a mid-range QB2 with upside at a very deep position. 

5. Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints
The fastest wideout in the draft lands on the Superdome turf with Drew Brees. Look out. Both the team and media tabbed receiver as the Saints' biggest need heading into the draft, and they filled it by trading up to No. 20 overall to land the lighting fast Cooks. He’s an ideal complement to declining No. 1 receiver Marques Colston, dominant Jimmy Graham and deep threat Kenny Stills. Cooks can also take over some of the targets left behind by Darren Sproles (89 last year) and Lance Moore (54). He’s going to see far more volume than Stills, who plays more of the old Devery Henderson/Robert Meachem role in Sean Payton’s scheme. 

6. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers
The Panthers went into the draft with the worst receiving corps in the league and emerged with a new every-down “X” receiver in Kelvin Benjamin at No. 28 overall. The risk here is that there’s far more upside than polish in Benjamin, which is not a good thing for a player Cam Newton will be counting on so heavily. What he can do right away is dominate in the jump ball category at 6-foot-5 with ridiculous 35-inch arms. Benjamin will bring far more value in touchdown-heavy leagues. 

7. Odell Beckham, WR, Giants
Wide receiver was a bigger need for the Giants than most realized. The coaching staff and front office have been dropping hints all offseason that they aren’t sold on Rueben Randle. The starting tight end is Adrien Robinson, who has zero catches in three career games. And new OC Ben McAdoo is bringing the Packers’ three-wide base to town. 

So Beckham wasn’t just a best-player available pick for the G-Men, it also was a fit. He’s going to stick to the outside in the old Greg Jennings spot in McAdoo's scheme, allowing Victor Cruz to play his natural slot role. It’s a position capable of yielding 100 targets easily. Beckham has the elite route-running chops and explosive athleticism to take advantage of that in a big way.  

8. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals
BenJarvus Green-Ellis was able to sustain a tiny shred of fantasy value last season because he scored seven touchdowns. But the Bengals knew they needed an upgrade at the “big back” position, and got it in the 6’1/233 Hill. As long as the No. 55 overall pick runs circles around BJGE at camp (and he almost certainly will), he’ll assume immediate complementary, inside duties behind Gio Bernard. In Hue Jackson’s highly effective rushing offense, that’s a sizeable role. Hill is capable of 800 yards and 6-8 touchdowns right away. The Bengals can save roughly $2.5 million by cutting Green-Ellis. 

9. Terrance West, RB, Browns
With Josh Gordon expected to be suspended for 8-16 games, it’s a no-brainer move for the Browns to go conservative. They’ll ride an underrated defense that will be improved under Mike Pettine, ask mobile rookie starter Johnny Manziel to limit mistakes and run the ball at ton. Ben Tate is the starter, but durability issues have plagued him throughout his career. With that in mind, they passed on desperate needs at wideout and traded up to select Terrance West in the third round. 

“I think it will be a good mix,” Pettine said of a West/Tate backfield as he talked about a running back by committee plan. “I think it’s very difficult in this league, especially in this division and especially in our mindset, to put all of that on one player.”

West drew Alfred Morris comparisons even before he landed with OC Kyle Shanahan, who made Alf a star with his one-cut zone-blocking scheme. Former NFL exec and current NFL Media analyst Charlie Casserly went as far to say he believes West will beat Tate for the starting job outright.

10. Eric Ebron, TE, Lions
I know there are a ton of mouths to feed in Detroit, Brandon Pettigrew just signed a $16M contract and the Lions will throw far less with Scott Linehan gone. But the presence of new OC Joe Lombardi, who comes from New Orleans, gives me serious hope for Eric Ebron

Ebron is listed as a tight end, but one could make a case for him as a wideout at 6’4/250 with 4.6 wheels. If that sounds familiar, it’s because Jimmy Graham is fighting that very case right now. Pettigrew will stick inside while Ebron will be the “move” tight end, doing some Graham-like things as the Lions run “12” personnel as their base. He’ll be single-covered all day with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate on the outside.  

Editor's Note: For more news, notes and thoughts from around the league, follow Adam Levitan and Rotoworld Football on Twitter. Keep reading for Nos. 11-20.

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Adam Levitan is in his seventh season covering football and basketball for Rotoworld. He won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association award for Best Series in 2011 and 2009, and ESPN's overall fantasy football title in 2000. Find him on Twitter.
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