Thor Nystrom

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ATS Playoff Semifinal Picks

Monday, January 1, 2018



Monday, January 1

 

 

College Football Playoff at the Rose Bowl

Georgia (12-1) vs. Oklahoma (12-1)

5 p.m., ESPN

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, California


Georgia -2.5 vs. Oklahoma

 

Straight Up:

Georgia Bulldogs logo

Against the Spread:

Georgia Bulldogs logo

           

View from Vegas

Kevin Bradley, Bovada.lv SportsBook Manager: “Opened at a pick, now -2 Georgia. Money is pretty split but from a futures perspective we do not want Georgia—that’s a pretty big liability for the book.”

 

Analysis

A few weeks ago, we were doing a radio spot for ESPN Honolulu. The host put us on the spot immediately: “Give us your playoff picks.”


We had not conducted research into the playoff matchups at that time. What we said next would be a surprise to us, because we had not yet decided. Forced to speak lest we commit the mortal sin of dead air time, we responded: “Alabama and Georgia. Alabama for the title.”


By this point, we have done our research into the playoff games. We won’t spoil the second one just yet, but, as you can see, our research reaffirmed our knee-jerk lean on this one.


Oklahoma’s offense is something to behold, a true force of nature. It scores on everyone (a season-low of 29 points) and is impossible to stop because it has playmakers for every occasion, a Heisman-winning point man and one of the sport’s true offensive genius’ calling plays. Oklahoma’s attack is neither finesse nor power based—it’s both, and a whole lot more.


HC Lincoln Riley, the whiz kid who took over the head coaching job following Bob Stoops' resignation over the summer, is a Mike Leach disciple who ran more of a true Air Raid system when he was the OC at East Carolina prior to taking the same job at Oklahoma in 2015. When he arrived in Norman, Riley quickly proved that he was no one-trick pony as a play-caller.


The Sooners, who had vacillated between a wide-open passing attack and a run-first ethos in the few years before he got there, had the type of varied offensive personnel that allowed Riley’s creative juices to flow. He inherited a perfect quarterback for the Air Raid in Baker Mayfield and an outstanding collection of receivers led by Sterling Shepard and Dede Westbrook. He also found himself in possession of a big, physical offensive line and a pair of stud RBs in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon.


So Riley created a new offense that would tailor to everybody’s strengths, an Air Raid passing attack melded with a downhill, smashmouth running game out of the shotgun. Oklahoma finished No. 8 in the nation in offensive S&P+ in 2015. The next year, without Shepard, it jumped to No. 1 S&P+. In 2017, the offense somehow improved again despite no longer having the services of Perine, Mixon and Westbrook.


Those defections just allowed Riley to spread the offensive wealth a whole lot more. Both Perine and Mixon went over 1,000 yards rushing last year, while Westbrook had 1,524 yards receiving. This year, Oklahoma does not yet have a 1,000-yard rusher (though RB Rodney Anderson will get there with 40 yards against Georgia), and it also does not have a 1,000-yard receiver (though WR Marquise Brown and TE Mark Andrews will get there with 19 and 78 yards, respectively, against the Bulldogs).


Instead, ten pass-catchers have 10 catches or more and four runners (including Mayfield) have more than 400 yards rushing. You may not recognize the skill players of this team as well you did last year’s, but the attack is more dangerous nonetheless.


Riley has ramped up his matchup-exploiting machinations to another level this year, using Andrews, a receiver in a tight end’s body, as a moving chess piece and weaponizing all-purpose FB Dmitri Flowers into a wildly efficient and dangerous receiver (a stupefying 88.5% catch rate and 15.8 yards per target) who’s also a crushing blocker in the run game.


Those two create mismatches galore when shifting around the formation, the receivers are all speed-merchants (Brown is joined by the sleek trio of CeeDee Lamb, Jeff Badet and Mykel Jones), the quarterback is transcendent, the offensive line is one of the three-best in the nation (led by hulking 6-foot-8, 345-pound OT Orlando Brown, who’s book-ended by another future premium NFL pick in Bobby Evans), the running back stable features three starting-caliber Power 5 options (Anderson is joined by Trey Sermon and Abdul Adams) and the coach is a next-level schematic genius.


The headliner, Mayfield, is coming off one of the great seasons we’ve ever seen (4,340 passing yards and a 41/5 TD/INT rate on 71.0% completions and a ludicrous 10.8 YPA average with 447 yards and five scores on 6.9 YPC on the ground with sack yardage omitted). A likely first-rounder in the spring, Mayfield is more Drew Brees and Russell Wilson than Johnny Manziel or Colt McCoy.


The Johnny Football comps were never accurate from an on-field evaluation standpoint. Mayfield has a much bigger arm, and he’s far more accurate with it. Manziel liked to scramble around and chuck it up for Mike Evans at Texas A&M. Mayfield has some gunslinger to him, but only the best parts of it—the courage to trust his read and arm no matter the circumstance and the ability to improvise with the best of them. What makes him special is that, in addition to all that, he’s incredibly efficient, capable of thrashing you inside and outside of structure. Is it possible to be a swashbuckling gunslinger and a rhythm passer at once? Mayfield is.


Oklahoma’s offense once again ranks No. 1 S&P+, but this year’s crew tacked on nearly five more points per game (to 48.7) than last year’s No. 1 attack. The Sooners rank No. 1 in S&P+ offensive efficiency, No. 1 in offensive explosion and No. 9 in points per trip inside the opponent’s 40. They boast S&P+’s No. 1 running game, and also S&P+’s No. 1 passing attack.


It’s a blast to watch, and downright impossible to stop. Georgia will almost assuredly not hold it beneath 28 points.


So why in the ever-loving heck are we on Georgia? The short answer? Because of everything else.


Georgia is elite defensively (No. 8 S&P+) and on special teams (No. 1 S&P+). But the Bulldogs are also far better on offense (No. 18 S&P+) than they’re given credit for.


Georgia’s 3-4 defense is extremely stout and physical up front with DE Trenton Thompson, DE Jonathan Ledbetter and NT John Atkins (total weight: 877 pounds). Those three are strong against the run and great at tying up offensive linemen so that the exceptional LB unit—Roquan Smith, Lorenzo Carter, D'Andre Walker, Natrez Patrick and Davin Bellamy, et al—can run around and lay the hammer down when they get to the ball.


Smith (113 total tackles, 10.5 TFL and 5.5 sacks) is not only one of the nation’s best defensive players, he’s one of its best players, period. Between a superb running defense (No. 8 S&P+) and a great passing defense (No. 6 S&P+), Georgia only allowed 14.3 points per game (No. 5).


That defense was only bad in one game: The 40-17 loss to Auburn in the regular season, Georgia’s only setback of the campaign. It should tell you something about Georgia’s coaching staff and its defensive resolve that the Bulldogs dismantled Auburn’s offense in the SEC title rematch, a 28-7 stomping in which Georgia scored a brilliant 95% on S&P+’s defensive percentile stat. They just about threw a perfect game.


Offensively, Georgia has a pair of star RBs in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, both of whom could be starting in the NFL next season. Those two rank No. 2 and 3, respectively, on Georgia’s all-time career rushing list behind the G.O.A.T. Herschel Walker. Chubb (1,175 yards and 13 TDs on 6.2 YPC average), a 225-pound hammer, supplies the muscle.  


Michel, an inch taller and 10 pounds lighter (5’11/215), is the lightning to Chubb’s thunder. Michel is averaging 7.2 YPC (948 yards and 13 touchdowns). Michel accelerates in a blink and is as agile as a rabbit. He’s that rare type that does not seem to lose speed when changing direction or turning the corner outside, which should be impossible. You used to be able to wrangle Michel down by getting your hands on him early, but no longer—he showed up this season rocked-up, and he now bursts through arm tackles and bounces off of linebackers. He’s also now an asset as a pass blocker.


We’ve seen Chubb comped to Todd Gurley and Frank Gore, and Michel compared to Kareem Hunt. Interestingly, OU defensive coordinator Mike Stoops compares the tandem to Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. To add to the embarrassment of riches, Georgia’s third-string running back, D’Andre Swift (597 yards, 3 TDs on only 73 attempts) is a made-to-order star for next year (and one heck of a depth piece in the meantime).


Of non-option teams, Georgia ranked No. 6 in rushing offense. Overall, it ranked No. 8 in S&P+’s run-game rankings. And it’s about to run all over Oklahoma.


The Sooners’s defense is worse than mediocre (No. 95 S&P+), and it especially struggles against the run. Oklahoma allowed 144.2 rushing yards per game in the regular season on 4.02 YPC. S&P+ grades the Sooners’ run defense No. 62; further, it grades OU’s run defense outside of the top-60 in every single advanced statistical category that it counts (i.e. efficiency, explosion, controlling the line of scrimmage, stuff and power rates, etc.).


And the front seven is Oklahoma’s defensive strength! This crew gets ripped by anyone with a decent running game, no matter the system. OU gave up 251 yards to West Virginia’s finesse, spread running game, 213 to Oklahoma State’s poor-man’s Oklahoma running game and 268 to Kansas State’s physical rushing attack.


A part of the issue has to do with the way Oklahoma’s defense is constructed: It’s fast, but small, and the linebacking crew can go through bouts where they're unable to shed blockers. The three starting linebackers weigh between 218-242 pounds, and the starting DEs weight 240 and 260 pounds, respectively.


DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo—the 240-pounder—is a disruptive stud (17.5 TFL, eight sacks, 23 run stuffs, three fumbles forced), but too often, he’s let down by his buddies. Georgia will presumably devote more than one blocker to Okoronkwo throughout most of the game. Will the rest of this group at long last step up?


We’ll say this: They might. Oklahoma’s defense was as streaky as they come this year. It started out the year like gangbusters, allowing only 12.3 ppg in the first three (including the upset win over Ohio State). But then, over the next seven games, it became one of the nation’s worst defenses, giving up 6.7 yards per play and 33.8 points per game. Over the last three games, it was suddenly good again, giving up only 4.5 yards per play and 17.0 points per game. That improvement has led some writers to argue that this defense is in fact extremely underrated.


We’d caution you against buying into that narrative. Oklahoma played well defensively against TCU in the Big 12 title game (a 41-17 win), but the Sooners matched up extremely well there, as OU’s undersized, speedy defense counteracted TCU’s undersized, speedy offense. Georgia, obviously, plays in no such way. In the other two games, OU dominated hapless Kansas and a West Virginia team playing without its best player, QB Will Grier.


Despite starting a true freshman at QB (Jake Fromm), the Bulldogs finished with the S&P+ No. 4 passing game. That ranking is inflated a bit, but it does speak to Georgia’s ability to be both explosive (No. 16 S&P+) and efficient (No. 29 S&P+) through the air while defenses focus on Chubb and Michel.


Fromm completed 63% of his passes for 8.5 YPA and a 21/5 TD/INT rate. He’s used as a game manager—and that’s certainly been devastating in its application—but Fromm has the ability to be so much more. That’ll have to wait until next year. For now, he’s arguably the nation’s most talented caretaker.


We love the matchup of Georgia’s offense against Oklahoma’s defense, and struggle to see how the Sooners will prevent the Bulldogs from running at will. If Georgia gets that facet of its offense going early, it should be able to control the clock, playing keep-away from Mayfield and crew. Once it gets into the red zone, forget it. Georgia boasts the No. 4-ranked red-zone offense, while Oklahoma has the No. 94-ranked red-zone defense.


We will not throw a wet blanket on Oklahoma’s offense, but there are two contextual things to keep in mind: 1.) It faced only one defense that finished in the top-25 in yards per play allowed, while playing five ranked No. 103 or lower (Georgia ranks No. 6 in ypg allowed). 2.) Mayfield has been sick all week (but will play).


The Sooners are going to get their points, even against this upper-echelon defense. It’s just that they won’t be able to stop Georgia’s offense. We can envision Georgia getting stops here, and maybe even forcing a turnover or two. It’s far more difficult to picture Oklahoma’s defense doing likewise. Between Georgia’s ability to control the clock and dominate on special teams (No. 1 vs. No. 56 S&P+ special teams unit), the Bulldogs defense needn’t derail Oklahoma’s offense, only impede it.

 

 

College Football Playoff at the Sugar Bowl

Alabama (11-1) vs. #1 Clemson (12-1)

8:45 p.m., ESPN

Mercedes-Benz Superdome

New Orleans


Alabama -3 vs. Clemson

 

Straight Up:

Alabama Crimson Tide logo

Against the Spread:

 Alabama Crimson Tide logo


View from Vegas

Kevin Bradley, Bovada.lv SportsBook Manager: “It is not a huge decision yet but at the rate it is going we will need Alabama -3 and on the moneyline. From futures point of view, Alabama is by far our biggest winner.”

 

Analysis

In each of the last two seasons, we picked Clemson to upset Alabama in the National Championship Game. We went 1-1 SU on those predictions, but 2-0 ATS. We can’t recall ever picking Alabama in the four years this column has run. We invest where we see value, and Alabama rarely provides it on the spread due to inflated lines (1-6 ATS versus bowl teams this year).


Until now, that is.


The defenses are essentially a wash heading into this one. Alabama allows slightly fewer points per game (ranking No. 1 with 11.5 ppg allowed; Clemson ranks No. 3 at 13.8 ppg allowed), while Clemson ranks a tad higher in S&P+’s defensive rankings (No. 2 to No. 3).


In our read of things, this game will likely come down to offense and special teams. And that’s why we’ll be backing the Crimson Tide at long last. Alabama holds an enormous edge on special teams (No. 26 S&P+ against Clemson’s shoddy No. 118 unit) as well as a tangible advantage on offense.


The Crimson Tide’s offense finished No. 19 S&P+ (while ranking No. 13 with 39.1 ppg scored). It’s a bruising, physical attack that starts with the combination of one of the nation’s best offensive lines (keep an eye on T Jonah Williams and C Bradley Bozeman) and one of the nation’s three-best best crops of running backs (if not the best). The ground game averages 265.3 yards a game on 6.0 YPC.


Clemson has an elite defensive line to be sure, but they also did last season, when the Tide lit up the Tigers for 221 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 34 carries in the title game. Bama RBs Damien Harris (906 yards and 11 touchdowns on 8.2 YPC) and Bo Scarbrough (549 yards and eight scores on 5.1 YPC) are both prime NFL prospects, and the Tide have a pair of stud youngsters behind them in Joshua Jacobs and true freshman five-star Najee Harris.


Damien Harris is one of our favorite running back prospects outside of Tier 1. S&P+ ranks the run game No. 14, a number that is a bit depressed due to Alabama’s sheer volume of carries.


Tide QB Jalen Hurts has taken flack for what he isn’t, namely a prolific pocket passer. Sure, he’ll never be Josh Rosen in the pocket, but he’s a tremendous runner (880 yards and eight touchdowns on 7.6 YPC average with sack yardage taken out) and a cool, mistake-adverse customer.


Alabama plays to Hurts’ strengths and refuses to stretch him into something he’s not. Hurts passed for only 1,940 yards in the regular season, but he posted a stellar 15/1 TD/INT rate on 60.8% completions and a 7.5 YPC average. The Tide have a superb backup in stud true freshman Hawaiian Tua Tagovailoa (8/1 TD/INT rate on 66.0% completions and an 8.6 YPA average on only 53 attempts), too.


At Hurts’ disposal is star WR Calvin Ridley (55-896-3), who many consider to be the best receiving prospect in the nation. Ridley was targeted 85 times this fall. The next five highest-targeted Alabama pass catchers combined for 90 targets (Ridley has 55 of Alabama’s 171 receptions). Alabama’s passing game is extremely straightforward: When you inevitably cheat against the run, Hurts will funnel touches to Ridley via bubble screens, quick-hitters and go routes, many times using play-action or RPOs.


As S&P+ underrates Alabama’s ground game, it overrates its passing game (No. 6) for efficiency reasons. The Tide only throw when they have a really good chance to complete a pass. And because defenses cheat up on them, they rank No. 11 S&P+ in passing explosion. If you let him, Hurts can beat you deep. Despite his lack of attempts, the sophomore ranked No. 3 in the SEC with seven completions of 50-plus yards.


Auburn lost to Clemson in September and beat Alabama in November. Their coaches shared a few interesting nuggets with ESPN this month.


"[Hurts] is the hardest player to defend we played because he's an explosion waiting to happen,” one Auburn coach told ESPN. “Now, if you can get him out of sync, it's a different story, and Clemson is good enough to do that, especially with their speed upfront on defense. But you have to respect his scramble ability." Another anonymous Auburn coach added: "I know he gets torched about his throwing, but [Hurts] is really, really scary. ... Hurts just puts more pressure on you (compared to Bryant) because you can have him defended pretty well, and he comes up with something on his own.”


Clemson’s offense respectably weathered their storm of massive offseason losses—Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, Mike Williams, Artavis Scott, Jordan Leggett, et al—to remain decidedly above average in 2017. While the Tigers ranked No. 17 in ppg scored with 38.3, S&P+ doesn’t like the unit nearly as much, ranking it No. 35.


QB Kelly Bryant proved better than serviceable, throwing for 2,678 yards and a 13/6 TD/INT ratio on 67.4% completions and 6.6 YPA. Bryant remains raw and unrefined in the pocket. He’s surpassed 275 passing yards just once (with a high of 316 against defense-optional Louisville). Clemson’s passing game (No. 19 S&P+) is predicated on high-percentage throws to Deon Cain, Hunter Renfrow and Ray-Ray McCloud. It’s efficient (No. 24 S&P+), but it lacks the ability to pop the top off of defenses (No. 121 S&P+ in passing game explosion).


Bryant’s game is more about athleticism and physicality than aerial precision. The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder is a thundering downhill runner who can be elusive when he needs to be. Bryant has 801 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC with sack yardage omitted along with 11 ground scores. S&P+ ranks Clemson’s rushing offense No. 11.


Overall, Clemson is efficient (No. 14 S&P+), reliable inside the opponent’s 40 (No. 25 in points per trip) and benefits from consistently-awesome field position (No. 25 for the offense, No. 10 for the defense). What the offense lost from last season was its ability to hit home runs, both in the passing game and the running game. The Tigers rank No. 119 in S&P+ offensive explosion.


We like Alabama’s chances of shutting down the attack. Last we saw the Tide, they were coughing away an opportunity to play in the SEC title game by losing 26-14 to Auburn. The result was not a fluke: Alabama was thoroughly dominated. But it’s important to keep in mind that the Tide weren’t playing with a full deck.


The Tide get back a bevy of healthy defenders for this game, including LBs Christian Miller, Mack Wilson and Terrell Lewis and DE LaBryan Ray (LBs Shaun Dion Hamilton and Dylan Moses remain out with injuries, however). Top-10 NFL prospect DB Minkah Fitzpatrick suffered a hamstring injury against LSU in early November and is reportedly healthy after the month-plus layoff. He, Ronnie Harrison, Anthony Averett and Levi Wallace form a strong secondary (S Hootie Jones, another keeper, is out with a knee injury).


Even while banged up for a portion of the year, Alabama still tied Wisconsin for a national-best 4.0 yards per play allowed in the regular season. The Tide rank No. 2 S&P+ against the run and No. 9 S&P+ against the pass. Alabama’s defense ranks in the top-10 in all five of S&P+’s premium defensive categories: efficiency (No. 9), explosion (No. 8), field position (No. 2), finishing drives (No. 6) and turnover margin (No. 8).


Clemson’s defense, of course, is also nasty. It ranks No. 2 S&P+ against the pass and No. 9 S&P+ against the run and only finished outside the top-10 in two of the five categories listed above (No. 12 in finishing drives, No. 29 in turnover margin).


The Tigers boast the country’s best defensive line, and they lead the nation with 44 sacks while averaging eight TFL per contest. The front boasts four All-American talents in DT Christian Wilkins (4.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles TFL, 10 run stuffs) and Dexter Lawrence (a 6-foot-4, 340-pound block-eating manchild) and DEs Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant (31.5 TFL, 16 sacks, 20 run stuffs combined).


The linebacking corps, led by Dorian O'Daniel and Kendall Joseph, is stout. The secondary is short on star power but effective at what it does, namely to hold coverage for a few seconds until the defensive line ransacks the backfield.


We can’t recall ever picking against Clemson in bowl season—it’s a terrifying proposition. HC Dabo Swinney is one of the game’s most successful coaches in money situations, going 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in his last 10 postseason games.


Unfortunately, he no longer has QB Deshaun Watson around for if/when the Tigers fall into a deficit. In last season’s title win over the Tide, Clemson stormed back from a 10-point disadvantage in the fourth quarter on a last-second Watson touchdown pass to Renfrow.


In the title game the year before, Alabama won 45-40 in part due to their special teams advantage. Clemson finished with more total yards as Watson valiantly tried to rally the team back in the fourth quarter, but a Kenyan Drake 95-yard kickoff return touchdown with 7:31 left in essence sunk the Tigers. We think special teams may come back to bite the Tigers again now that their margin for error has shrunk with Watson in the NFL.


Against Alabama’s elite defenses the past two years, Clemson didn’t just need Watson to dig it out of deficits—it needed Watson to assume a lion’s share of the overall offensive usage. In both games, he finished with over 400 yards passing and had more carries than every other player on the team combined.


Clemson could overcome Alabama’s defense in those games with a singular, transcendent offensive talent. They don’t have that anymore, so the game plan will have to be amended considerably.


Alabama easily erased Gallman in the last two matchups (45.5 yards per game on less than 3.0 YPC). We don’t like this year’s Clemson RB crop as much as we liked the Gallman-led one, so we don’t think it’s much of a stretch to say that Clemson’s running game in this game could boil down to Bryant scrambles and not much else.


With Bryant under center, the Tigers have had to lean far more heavily on the running game. While the offense improved to 204.1 rushing yards per game in 2017 from 169.7, it fell from 39.2 ppg in 2016 to 35.4 this year while falling from 6.19 yards per play last year to 5.96 this year. In the backfield, Clemson platoons a pair of athletic youngsters in RBs Travis Etienne (744 yards and 13 touchdowns on 7.2 YPC) and Tavien Feaster (659 yards and 7 touchdowns on 6.4 YPC).


"Clemson's got to be able to run it enough so Alabama can't just tee off, but this Alabama defense isn't the same with some of those injuries at linebacker," an Auburn coach told ESPN. "Their depth has really been tested." With a few of those linebackers back in the fold, defensive depth shouldn’t be as big of an issue as it was when the Tigers beat the Tide.


The Crimson Tide are in a primo revenge spot and being discounted a tad due to their sluggish showing in the Iron Bowl. Even so, don’t base your handicap too heavily on the revenge factor. HC Nick Saban is 4-12 ATS following a SU loss while at Alabama (though, to be fair, Alabama is 10-1 SU since 2009 off a loss, and 10-2 SU in rematches against teams that beat them the same year or the previous one with an average margin of victory of 16.9 points).


Alabama faced a lighter slate to get here (No. 56 schedule versus Clemson’s No. 8, per the Sagarin Ratings), and they beat less bowl teams (while playing in one less game after missing the SEC title). Alabama, however, is more talented on the whole (11 prospects in Todd McShay’s top-235 to Clemson’s six).


Alabama was middling against the line this season (5-7 ATS) while Clemson was great (8-4-1 ATS). This actually works in Alabama’s favor here, perhaps depressing the line a tad. This game fits a bowl system that entered this season 55.6% ATS: Fade a team that covered at least two-thirds of its regular season games (Clemson) against a team that didn’t (Alabama) in bowl games.


In the final analysis, we see Alabama holding significant advantages in offense and special teams while the superb defenses wash themselves out. In a low-scoring game that will look nothing like the previous two meetings between the teams, we like the Tide to advance to the national title game.


****
2017 Bowl Record (through 12/31/17): Straight-Up: 20-14 (58.8%); Against the Spread: 17-16-1 (51.5%)

2017 Regular Season Record:  Straight-Up: 115-56 (67.2%); Against the Spread: 90-77-4 (53.9%)

2014-2016:  Straight-Up: 350-197 (64.0%); Against the Spread: 286-250-11 (53.4%)


Thor Nystrom is a former MLB.com associate reporter whose writing has been honored by Rolling Stone magazine and The Best American Essays series. Say hi to Rotoworld's college football writer on Twitter @thorku.
Email :Thor Nystrom



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