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Mark Lindquist

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DFS Bargains: Week 7

Thursday, October 11, 2018



Rotoworld now has a college football podcast dedicated to betting against the spread. Every week, my co-host Thor Nystrom and I pick our five favorite sides of the week. The Week 7 episode with 10 ATS predictions (plus an epic Clay Helton rant from Thor) dropped Thursday afternoon. Check us out on iTunes here!


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In this column, going position-by-position, we’ll offer up one DFS sleeper priced at $6,000 or cheaper ($6,500 and cheaper at QB) and three deeper bargains priced at $5,000 or cheaper (two QBs at $5,500 or cheaper). We’re plucking our dark horses from DraftKings. Player pool this week will be drawn from the Saturday early slate.


Quarterback


Affordable building block ($6,500 or less)


Baylor QB Charlie Brewer ($6,500) at Texas -- We’ve hit on Brewer several times through the first month of the campaign, but what can we say, he just appears to have taken up residence in a monetary sweet spot. When last we saw the Longhorns, they were surrendering 21 fourth-quarter points to Oklahoma. Now, Brewer’s not Kyler Murray, but he need not be to find success in this spot. Look for him to pop a few long passes in this one -- Texas is one of just 16 teams in the FBS to allow at least seven passes of 40 or more yards. Brewer has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of six games. He scorched Oklahoma for 400 yards two weekends ago.


And two from the bargain bin ($6,000 or less):


Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham ($6,000) vs. Tennessee -- Rolling with Stidham is a DFS proposition worthy of the spooky season, but if ever you’re going to play him, this is a prime spot to do so. Tennessee has been blown off the map in their three games against Power 5 teams, with both Will Grier and Feleipe Franks finding success in the form of eight combined touchdown passes (Grier had five). As for Stidham? It’s been a trying season. His lone game with multiple touchdown passes came two weekends against Southern Miss. If you feel uncomfortable with the Auburn signal-caller -- that’s fair -- another option just over this price range would be Jake Fromm at $6,200. Fromm is on the road against LSU, though.


Minnesota QB Zack Annexstad ($4,800) at Ohio State -- Don’t let the OSU name scare you off of this one. Annexstad has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of five games this season, with six of his eight scoring tosses coming over his last three contests. The Buckeyes have shown cracks in their pass defense this season, most recently surrendered 322 yards passing and three touchdowns to Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey. Trace McSorley likewise did well, burning Ohio State for 286 passing yards and two scores. Shawn Robinson, 308 yards and a touchdown. Annexstad could put up nice numbers even if this devolves into a blowout.


Running back


Affordable building block ($6,000 or less)


Texas RB Keontay Ingram ($5,500) vs. Baylor -- The Bears rank 98th in the country against the run on a per-game average. Kansas State’s Alex Barnes put up a hearty 250 yards rushing versus the Bears in Week 6. He was the third back this season to top 100 yards against Matt Rhule’s boys. Baylor has surrendered at least 80 yards to a runner in all six games this season. For his part, Ingram has gone over 60 yards rushing in three of his last four games, including a season-best 86 yards in the Red River Rivalry. It would not surprise if he bettered that output on Saturday.


And three from the bargain bin ($5,000 or less):


LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,900) vs. Georgia -- If you’re priced out on Nick Brossette ($6,600), Edwards-Helaire makes for a cheap gamble in this matchup. While he’s been held under 70 rushing yards in each of the last two games, Edwards-Helaire has received double-digit carries in each of the last four. He’s also scored five touchdowns. The Bulldogs rank 20th in the FBS against the run, but in a game that we imagine will be a knock ‘em down, drag ‘em out fight, we see Edwards-Helaire scraping his way to a nice statistical game.


Memphis RB Patrick Taylor ($4,000) vs. UCF -- Taylor is fresh off a shining 161-yard, three-touchdown showing against UConn, and while the Knights aren’t as flimsy on defense as the Huskies -- no team is -- they’ve proven susceptible to big running games this season. Most notably, Devin Singletary gashed UCF for 131 yards and three touchdowns back in September. Taylor’s not a guarantee for numbers (he has been held under 50 yards three times this season), but we anticipate a strong effort against a team which has had its defensive wobbles at times this season. Count Taylor as a worthwhile gamble if you don’t want to shell out $9,500 for Darrell Henderson.


Michigan State RB LJ Scott ($4,600) at Penn State -- You’re getting a steal of a deal on Scott, here, as he’s out there on injury discount. He’s missed the last three games due to a leg issue, but has dressed out pregame each time as he has slowly crept back toward full health. You’ll want to doublecheck that Scott is playing before kickoff, but we expect him to be out there. Penn State has allowed at least 85 yards rushing to a lead back in three of five games. The real fun with this pick comes in potential volume -- most players under $5,000 are not necessarily guaranteed for touches. So long as he’s on the field, Scott will be receiving plenty of work.


Wide receiver


Affordable building block ($6,000 or less)


Minnesota WR Tyler Johnson ($5,900) at Ohio State -- We hit on Johnson’s quarterback earlier in this space. Doubling down on the Gophers passing attack, now. OSU allowed a pair of 100-yard receivers to Indiana in Nick Westbrook and J-Shun Harris on Saturday. All told, they’ve allowed four receivers to top 100 yards in six games, with TCU’s Jalen Reagor (98 yards) barely failing to join the club. Johnson has been Steady Eddie this season, with three games of 100 yards or more (in five contests) and at least five catches in every game this season save for one.


And three from the bargain bin ($5,000 or less):


Washington WR Ty Jones ($4,800) at Oregon -- Jones opened the year in respectable fashion, going off for 153 in the first two games of the season. He’s slowed considerably since, though, failing to reach even 50 yards receiving in any of his next three games. He finally emerged from the shadows by degrees with three catches for 56 yards against UCLA on Saturday. Aaron Fuller ($6,900) is the clear No. 1 receiver in Seattle, but at $2,100 cheaper, Jones makes for a nice flier in a game where Washington might need to fling the ball around more than normal facing off with Justin Herbert and company.


Ohio State WR Binjimen Victor ($3,900) vs. Minnesota -- We’ve been fans of Victor (or at least his upside) for what feels like eons. While he only has nine catches on the season, they’ve tended to result in big plays. He is averaging 18.8 yards per grab. So we’ve got burn-them-down-deep potential, here, as well as a nice little streak of touchdowns. Victor has hauled in scores in each of his last three games. The Gophs have played respectable pass defense this season, but have yet to face any offense close to what OSU brings to the table.


Notre Dame TE (listed WR) Alize Mack ($4,500) vs. Pitt -- Mack has yet to top 40 yards in a game this season, but we think he may be on the verge of a breakout upcoming. In two of Ian Book’s three starts, the athletic tight end has made six catches. He made a COMBINED six catches through the first three games of the campaign, with Brandon Wimbush at quarterback. The Panthers have allowed a 100-yard receiver in three of their six games to date. If Book keeps targeting Mack like this, the production should follow.



Mark Lindquist holds a master's degree from the University of Iowa and writes baseball and college football for Rotoworld.com. He's currently working on a memoir about life, death, rock 'n' roll and his year teaching at a Chinese university. You can reach him on Twitter @markrlindquist.
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