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Week 11 CFB Matchups for DFS

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

The process here is simple. Use Vegas lines to predict scores and game script. Use S&P+ to find where offenses will attack opposing defenses. And use Rotoworld blurbs to track news and depth chart changes. By doing these three things, we can build a quality player pool to build rosters with.


In this column, I’ll go game-by-game (going from the highest over/under to the lowest) and write up the players who have the highest probability of 3x-ing their DraftKings salary. If I’m on the border of a player, then I write their name next to “Fringe Plays.” And if you don’t see the player listed, then you can assume I am fading them completely. If you want an explanation, please send me a message on Twitter (@Haydenwinks). I’ll be around Twitter on Saturday mornings before lock if you want to follow me and ask me some questions!



Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma (76.5 O/U)


Re-read that over/under again... 

Oklahoma State 28.25 (10th out of 22 on slate)


OU Def. S&P Rank: 53rd

OU Def. Passing S&P Rank: 76th

OU Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 34th


QB Taylor Cornelius ($7,700) will be playing catch up on Saturday, which bodes well for his game script, especially with the S&P+ numbers shown above. Cornelius will need to hit the 300-yard bonus – he has done so in 4-of-10 games this year – and total at least three touchdowns to be in a tournament winning lineup, but that’s certainly in range. Cornelius is a good S-FLEX quarterback. … WR Tylan Wallace ($8,300) has the third most red zone targets on the slate and had the most contested catches in the nation as of last week, yet he only has two red zone touchdowns. I anticipate some positive touchdown regression heading his way in the red zone based on those two stats. Even if he doesn’t get the touchdowns we’d project, Wallace has hit the 100-yard bonus in 6-of-9 games. Cornelius and Wallace stacks are in play.


Fringe Plays: WR Tyron Johnson ($5,300), WR Dillon Stoner ($4,300)


Oklahoma 48.25 (1st out of 22 on slate)


OKST Def. S&P Rank: 67th

OKST Def. Passing S&P Rank: 63rd

OKST Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 91st


The Sooners are projected to score four more points than the next closest team (UCF) on the slate. You know the deal with QB Kyler Murray ($10,800). There isn’t anyone on the slate with his upside, and he’s even paid off this salary in 6-of-9 games. … WR Marquise Brown ($7,400) is in a blowup spot, and he’s $1,200 cheaper than he was two weeks ago. … WR CeeDee Lamb ($7,200) has been the second-best red zone producer – Noah Fant has been the best -- on the slate by securing 6-of-8 targets and scoring a slate-high five red zone touchdowns. … WR Lee Morris ($5,700) needs to score touchdowns to pay off his price since he’s not a high-volume piece in the offense, but he is really good at scoring TDs with eight on the year. … RB Trey Sermon ($7,400) ran the ball 26 times last week, and there isn’t a back on the slate with better projected game script, but I wouldn’t play him in cash with the elevated price. …


Fringe Plays: RB Kennedy Brooks ($5,700), WR Grant Calcaterra ($4,100)


Injury Notes: WR Marquise Brown ($7,400) has not been playing at full health in recent weeks, but coach Lincoln Riley expects Brown to be close to top speed, which is essentially world-class speed. If Brown is truly healthy, we are getting a huge discount on the stud receiver. His health does eliminate him from cash consideration however.



Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M (67 O/U)


Ole Miss 27.75 (12th out of 22 on slate)


TA&M Def. S&P Rank: 30th

TA&M Def. Passing S&P Rank: 95th (Pass Funnel)

TA&M Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 9th


Despite putting up 31 DK points last week against South Carolina, DraftKings dropped QB Jordan Ta’Amu’s ($8,000) price by $900. Ta’Amu hasn’t been this cheap since the Alabama game, and he’s going up against a pass funnel defense this week. Ta’Amu has three 40+ DK point performances this year. He’s an elite play. … WR DaMarkus Lodge ($6,300) is fourth in red zone receptions (9) on the slate, and his outlook is even more positive if Braylon Sanders is ruled out. … I don’t expect WR Elijah Moore ($4,800) to catch 11 passes like he did last week, but that’s way too many receptions for this price point if Braylon Sanders doesn’t play.


Fringe Plays: WR A.J. Brown ($8,000), WR Braylon Sanders ($4,200)


Injury Notes: QB Jordan Ta’Amu ($8,000) is playing through a slight ankle sprain, but it doesn’t seem to be a big deal. … WR Braylon Sanders ($4,200) is a game-time decision as he battles an ankle injury, but he isn’t a great option even if he’s healthy.


Texas A&M 39.25 (3rd out of 22 on slate)


Ole Miss Def. S&P Rank: 111th

Ole Miss Def. Passing S&P Rank: 98th

Ole Miss Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 112th


RB Trayveon Williams ($7,500) has ideal game script this week. This could be a 20-carry game given the point spread, but he also has tons of touchdown equity, especially with Ole Miss deploying the 112th ranked run defense. Williams is fantastic play. … WR Jace Sternberger ($5,800) has been a stud in the red zone. He has secured 7-of-13 targets and scored a slate-high five touchdowns in the red zone. Sternberger has touchdown equity with the 39.25-point team total. … WR Quartney Davis ($5,500) has the sixth most red zone targets (15) on the slate, but he is not priced like the other leaders. His outlook is more positive if Camron Buckley is ruled out, but he is a fine play either way.


Fringe Plays: QB Kellen Mond ($7,400), WR Kendrick Rogers ($4,300)


Injury Notes: WR Camron Buckley ($4,200) left last week with an injury and his current status is unknown. Buckley would be a fringe play at best if he is available.



Mississippi State vs. Alabama (63 O/U)


Mississippi State 14.25 (22nd out of 22 on slate)


BAMA Def. S&P Rank: 11th

BAMA Def. Passing S&P Rank: 5th

BAMA Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 6th


Fringe Plays: None.


Injury Notes: RB Kylin Hill ($4,900) is playing through an ankle injury but he is expected to take on more work this week. Too bad that’s against Alabama. … WR Osirus Mitchell ($3,800) is day-to-day and he seems very questionable for Saturday. If he misses, WR Stephen Guidry ($3,600) would be a fringe play.


Alabama 38.25 (4th out of 22 on slate)


MSST Def. S&P Rank: 5th

MSST Def. Passing S&P Rank: 8th

MSST Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 25th


The Mississippi State defense is no joke, but Vegas doesn’t seem to care with the way QB Tua Tagovailoa ($9,800) is playing. The worry for Tua is playing time, and that worry doesn’t go away given the point spread. Tagovailoa isn’t in the same category as Kyler Murray, but he’s still an option in tournaments. … WR Jerry Jeudy ($7,900) has shown a high floor – he has just one game with less than 13 DK points this year – and clearly has upside this week with a near 40-point team total. I think it’s best to ignore the 8th ranked Mississippi State pass defense in this rare spot.


Side note: Thor Nystrom has Mississippi State (+25) as one of his "best bets" in his Week 11 CFB Best Bets column.


Fringe Plays: RB Damien Harris ($7,100), WR Henry Ruggs ($6,000), WR Irv Smith Jr. ($5,100), WR Devonta Smith ($4,800), WR Jaylen Waddle ($4,700)


Injury Notes: RB Najee Harris ($4,900) is day-to-day and is questionable for Saturday. If he’s unable to play, more work will go to starter Damien Harris and to backups Josh Jacobs and Brian Robinson Jr.


Navy vs. UCF (63 O/U)


Navy 18.75 (19th out of 22 on slate)


UCF Def. S&P Rank: 34th

UCF Def. Passing S&P Rank: 62nd (Pass Funnel)

UCF Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 27th


Fringe Plays: None.


UCF 44.25 (2nd out of 22 on slate)


Navy Def. S&P Rank: 121st

Navy Def. Passing S&P Rank: 108th

Navy Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 108th


QB McKenzie Milton ($10,500) should have no issue with the Navy defense. It’s just a matter of if he can keep producing in the fourth quarter with the game out of hand. … WR Gabriel Davis ($6,500) has the most red zone targets (21) and third most red zone receptions (10) on the slate but make sure to read the injury note below. Milton + Davis stacks are in play for tournaments.


Fringe Plays: RB Greg McCrae ($5,000), WR Dredrick Nelson ($5,400), WR Michael Colubiale ($4,400)


Injury Notes: WR Gabriel Davis ($6,500) is set to play, but he did have an undisclosed injury. Without full clarification right now, there is no way I am comfortable with him in cash.



Washington State vs. Colorado (60.5 O/U)


Washington State 33.25 (6th out of 22 on slate)


COLO Def. S&P Rank: 72nd

COLO Def. Passing S&P Rank: 94th (Pass Funnel)

COLO Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 45th


QB Gardner Minshew ($8,700) had a slow game last week, but Vegas expects a rebound in scoring this week. Minshew should have success against the Colorado pass funneling defense, so I expect another 29+ DK point performance. … WR Easop Winston ($5,900) is tied for fourth for the most red zone touchdowns (4) on the slate, and he’s coming off a seven catch game. Winston has the most receiving touchdown equity on the team. … RB James Williams ($6,900) has caught all nine of his red zone targets on the season, and he’s caught at least seven passes in his last three games. Williams is $1,100 cheaper than he was last week.


Fringe Plays: WR Dezmon Patmon ($5,500), WR Davontavean Martin ($5,000), RB Max Borghi ($4,800)


Colorado 27.25 (14th out of 22 on slate)


WSU Def. S&P Rank: 47th

WSU Def. Passing S&P Rank: 17th

WSU Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 68th (Run Funnel)


RB Travon McMillian ($6,300) doesn’t have ideal game script as an underdog, but Washington State’s defense is run funneling according to S&P+. In last week’s loss to Arizona that mirrors the Vegas projection of this week’s game, McMillian received just 11 carries, but he salvaged his day with a touchdown. McMillian will need to score one TD to reach value and bring in another to be in a tournament winning lineup.


Fringe Plays: QB Steven Montez ($7,500), WR K.D. Nixon ($6,800) if Shenault is out, WR Juwann Winfree ($5,100) if Shenault is out


Injury Notes: WR Laviska Shenault ($8,700) is day-to-day with his toe injury that has kept him out for a couple weeks. When he’s healthy, he’s an awesome play, but I’m skeptical that he’s going to be healthy even if he suits up. I’ll be fading him if he plays. … WR K.D. Nixon ($6,800) is day-to-day with a hip injury, and I’m more willing to roll the dice on him if Shenault is ruled out. … WR Jay MacIntrye ($3,800) has suffered two concussions recently, so I’m skeptical if he plays just days after his most recent concussion.


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