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Hayden Winks

Daily Fantasy Decisions

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College Football DFS Matchups

Friday, November 23, 2018


The process here is simple. Use Vegas lines to predict scores and game script. Use S&P+ to find where offenses will attack opposing defenses. And use Rotoworld blurbs to track news and depth chart changes. By doing these three things, we can build a quality player pool to build rosters with.

 

In this column, I’ll go team-by-team (going from the highest implied team total to the lowest) and write up the players who have the highest probability of 4x-ing their DraftKings salary. If I’m on the border of a player, then I write their name next to “Fringe Plays.” And if you don’t see the player listed, then you can assume I am fading them completely. If you want an explanation, please send me a message on Twitter (@Haydenwinks). I’ll be around Twitter on Saturday mornings before lock if you want to follow me and ask me some questions!

 

There is one new wrinkle to the column. I have created a Google Sheet filled with target data. You can view it here, but the top receivers are below.

 

 

1. Alabama 38.5 points (24.5-point favorite) vs. Auburn

AUB Def. S&P Rank: 14

AUB Def. Passing S&P Rank: 14

AUB Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 23

 

The Crimson Tide might play their starters longer than normal against their rivals, which means QB Tua Tagovailoa ($9,900) might play for long enough to pay off his salary. For Tua to 4x his salary -- that’s the goal for tournaments --  he will need to score four or five touchdowns and get the 300-yard bonus. Even against Auburn’s 14th ranked defense, Tua has a shot to do both, so he’s in play for tournaments. … WR Jerry Jeudy ($7,300) is 4th in targets over the last three weeks, but he weirdly hasn’t scored in that time frame, so his price has dropped by $600. With Bama projected to score four to six touchdowns this weekend, I like Jeudy’s chances to find the end zone. Jeudy is a good tournament stack with Tua, but he’s not my favorite Bama receiver. … That would be WR Henry Ruggs ($5,200), who was targeted just one fewer time than Jeudy last week. It’s a lot easier for Ruggs to 4x his salary -- one touchdown and 100-yards will do it -- than it is for Jeudy to pay off his $2,100 higher salary. … WR Jaylen Waddle ($5,200) is also in play in tournaments, but he has a slightly lower floor than Ruggs. … RB Damien Harris ($6,000) always has positive game script in his favor, but he has actually done better in fantasy against tougher opponents because Saban wants him in when the game is somewhat close. I also like the “senior in his last rivalry game” narrative here, so I’m expecting a couple more carries than usual. Harris is a solid tournament play. … Fringe Plays: WR Irv Smith ($5,000), RB Josh Jacobs ($5,400).

 

 

2. Georgia 38.25 points (17-point favorite) vs. Georgia Tech

GT Def. S&P Rank: 100

GT Def. Passing S&P Rank: 110

GT Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 82

 

I wish there was more clarity on the quarterback situation because the Bulldogs will have no issue hanging points on Georgia Tech through the air. There is no way that we can play either in cash, but both QB Jake Fromm ($7,300) and QB Justin Fields ($6,200) have a path to 4x-ing their respective salaries. I just wouldn’t allocate too much exposure, if any, to either. If I had to choose one, it would be Fromm for sure. … WR Mecole Hardman ($4,400) is a nice salary relieving receiver option. Hardman is attached to an offense with the second-highest implied team total playing against the 110st-ranked passing defense. The floor with Hardman is low, as he has only been targeted six times in the last two weeks, but he has a shot at 4x-ing his salary. … WR Terry Godwin ($4,200) is in the exact same situation as Hardman. … RB D’Andre Swift ($8,600) is very expensive, but he has everything going his way for a big game. Swift has 4x-ed this salary twice in the last three weeks, and they were in game’s with final scores of 27-10 and 34-17, which is the same point differential as this week’s point spread. Swift is a tournament play. … Fringe Plays: RB, Elijah Holyfield ($7,000), WR Riley Ridley ($5,500).

 

 

3. Texas Tech 35.5 points (6-point favorite) vs. Baylor

BAY Def. S&P Rank: 94

BAY Def. Passing S&P Rank: 90

BAY Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 95

 

RB Da’Leon Ward ($5,800) could be leaned on given the crazy quarterback situation (see “Injury Notes”), and Ward is somewhat game flow independent too, as he has the most targets of any running back on the slate. Ward needs to find the end zone to pay off his salary since he isn’t a major threat for the 100-yard rushing bonus, but his touchdown chances are good since the Red Raiders have a high 35.5-point implied total. … Injury Notes: QB Alan Bowman is questionable with a lung injury, but he would be the projected starter if he can get cleared. If he can’t than QB Jett Duffey would be in line to start, but Duffey is dealing with knee and foot injuries. Duffey is questionable as well. If neither Bowman nor Duffey can suit up, then QB McClane Carter would be in line to start, but Carter is a game-time decision with an ankle sprain. If none of them can play, then QB Nick Gerber would be making his debut. This is a nightmare quarterback situation, so just completely avoid it if you want to play it safe. Whoever does start will likely be low-owned for those who want to track news and take a calculated gamble. … Fringe Plays: WR Antoine Wesley ($8,400), WR T.J. Vasher ($6,700), WR Seth Collins ($3,700).

 

 

4. Purdue 34.25 points (4-point favorite) at Indiana

IU Def. S&P Rank: 75

IU Def. Passing S&P Rank: 108 (pass funnel)

IU Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 74

 

QB David Blough ($8,500) offers close to nothing with his legs, so Blough will have to go nuclear as a passer to 4x his salary. Luckily, Indiana puts out the 108th ranked pass defense and Blough is coming off a 33 DK-point game against Wisconsin. Purdue also needs a win to get bowl eligibility for you narrative hunters. The floor is low -- he put up 7 DK points two weeks ago -- but the ceiling is there for tournaments. If you do make a Blough lineup, I highly recommend making it a stack because all of his points will come through the air. … WR Rondale Moore ($8,700) just 4x-ed this salary last week, and his ceiling is high for the same reasons as mentioned above. Blough-Moore is a good tournament stack, but Moore is a tournament option by himself since he has been the most targeted player on the slate over the last three games (12.7 per game). … WR Isaac Zico ($5,500) was targeted 10 times last week, and he checks in as the 16th most targeted receiver on the slate over the last three games. Zico is an obvious tournament option, but he has some cash game appeal as well. … Fringe Plays: RB D.J. Knox ($5,600), WR Terry Wright ($5,000), RB Markell Jones ($4,500).

 

 

5. Penn State 33.5 points (13.5-point favorite) vs. Maryland

UMD Def. S&P Rank: 49

UMD Def. Passing S&P Rank: 60

UMD Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 73

 

RB Miles Sanders ($7,400) has been a headache this year, but game script is looking too pretty to fade Sanders. The floor is always low since this offense can be stagnant at times, but touchdowns and the 100-yard bonus are in play on Saturday. … WR Pat Freiermuth ($4,200) has only averaged 4.7 targets per game over the last three contests, but he’s always a threat for a red zone score. Since Penn State is projected to score three to five touchdowns and he’s sitting in the low 4k range, Freiermuth is a fine salary-relieving tournament option. … Fringe Plays: QB Trace McSorley ($8,900), WR K.J. Hamler ($5,700).

 

 

6. Arizona State 33.35 points (2-point favorite) at Arizona

ARIZ Def. S&P Rank: 76

ARIZ Def. Passing S&P Rank: 88

ARIZ Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 62

 

RB Eno Benjamin ($8,500) has at least 27 carries in four straight games, and the Sun Devils are projected to score three to five touchdowns this Saturday. What else is there to say? … The DraftKings’ game logs don’t show it, but WR N’Keal Harry ($7,800) was targeted 15 times last week and the future NFL receiver is No. 3 on the slate in targets over the last three weeks. Over that span, Harry has the second most receptions (23) and yards (366), as well as the most touchdowns (3) of any receiver on the slate. Harry is in play for cash games as well if you can fit his salary in. … Fringe Plays: QB Manny Wilkins ($8,100), WR Kyle Williams ($4,100), WR Brandon Aiyuk ($3,300).

 

 

7. Boston College 32.25 points (7-point favorite) vs. Syracuse

SYR Def. S&P Rank: 68

SYR Def. Passing S&P Rank: 57

SYR Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 70

 

RB A.J. Dillon ($9,000) isn’t my favorite high priced running back -- Jonathan Taylor, Eno Benjamin, and D’Andre Swift are examples -- but anyone with a 40-carry ceiling needs to be at least mentioned. Dillon would need to go crazy, like 100-yard bonus and three touchdowns crazy, to pay off his salary, but that is at least in play. … WR Kobay White ($5,300) was targeted 13 times last week after putting out a respectable 4-65-0 receiving line against Clemson the week prior. White has a low floor, but he would have a decent chance to 4x his price if he can maintain his ascending role. … Fringe Plays: WR Tommy Sweeney ($4,200).

 

 

8. Wisconsin 32.25 points (10.5-point favorite) vs. Minnesota

MINN Def. S&P Rank: 44

MINN Def. Passing S&P Rank: 52

MINN Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 109 (run funnel)

 

$10,600 is an absurd price for a running back, but RB Jonathan Taylor ($10,600) actually more than 4x-ed this salary last week against Purdue. Taylor would need another 200-yard, three-touchdown performance to pay off this salary, but if anyone is capable of doing it, it’s Mr. Taylor. Figuring out what to do with Taylor is the first step in building lineups because you are essentially eliminated from tournaments if Taylor does pop for 40-60 DK points. … Injury Notes: QB Alex Hornibrook is questionable with a concussion, so QB Jack Coan may draw another start. Neither of them have shown a ceiling, so they are both fades. … Fringe Plays: WR Danny Davis ($5,300), WR A.J. Taylor ($5,200).

 

 

9. Arizona 31.25 points (2-point underdog) vs. Arizona State

ASU Def. S&P Rank: 90

ASU Def. Passing S&P Rank: 95

ASU Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 100

 

It might be time to buy on QB Khalil Tate ($8,500), as his production has increased in the last three weeks after getting off of his injured ankle. When healthy, Tate would smash this salary -- he was $11,000 at the beginning of the year -- and there is no better time for him to have a ceiling game than playing against the in-state rival, who have the 90th ranked defense. Tate arguably has the highest point-per-dollar ceiling on the slate. … WR Shun Brown ($5,000) caught 8-of-10 targets last week and has three straight games with a touchdown. Brown is a tournament stack option with Tate. … RB J.J. Taylor ($6,200) was just $8,600 two games ago, and his carry totals the last three games are 20, 40, and 30. Running lanes should be wider if Tate is able to get things going with his legs again like I’m gambling one. Even if they aren’t, Taylor gets enough volume and has enough touchdown equity to be a top running back option. … Fringe Plays: WR Shawn Poindexter ($5,900)

 

 

10. Indiana 30.25 points (4-point underdog) vs. Purdue

PUR Def. S&P Rank: 74

PUR Def. Passing S&P Rank: 81 (pass funnel)

PUR Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 54

 

RB Stevie Scott ($7,000) doesn’t have S&P nor game script on his side, but he has seen too much volume to not be at least mentioned. Scott has at least 18 carries and one touchdown in four straight games, including a tough game against Michigan on the road last week. … Fringe Plays: QB Peyton Ramsey ($6,900), WR Luke Timian ($5,100), WR Nick Westbrook ($5,000).

 

 

11. Michigan 30.25 points (4.5-point favorite) at Ohio State

OSU Def. S&P Rank: 38

OSU Def. Passing S&P Rank: 93 (pass funnel)

OSU Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 68

 

Fringe Plays: QB Shea Patterson ($7,300), WR Tarik Black ($4,400), RB Tarik Higdon ($7,600)

 

 

12. Baylor 29.5 points (6-point underdog) at Texas Tech

TTU Def. S&P Rank: 86

TTU Def. Passing S&P Rank: 66

TTU Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 46

 

Injury Notes: RB Jaymycal Hasty is day-to-day with knee injury. If he can’t play, then RB John Lovett will get a bump in expected carries. … Fringe Plays: QB Charlie Brewer ($6,600), WR Jalen Hurd ($7,100), WR Denzel Mims ($5,300), WR Marques Jones ($3,000)

 

 

13. Florida 29.25 points (6.5-point favorite) at Florida State

FSU Def. S&P Rank: 34

FSU Def. Passing S&P Rank: 40

FSU Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 29

 

QB Feleipe Franks ($6,900) wouldn’t be in consideration if not for his four game streak with at least one rushing touchdown. I’m not confident in Franks passing ability, especially against the 40th ranked passing defense on the road, but he can pay off this salary if he’s able to extend his rushing TD streak. … Fringe Plays: RB Kadarius Toney ($3,600).

 

 

14. Ohio State 25.75 points (4.5-point underdog) vs. Michigan

MICH Def. S&P Rank: 2

MICH Def. Passing S&P Rank: 6

MICH Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 9

 

Fringe Plays: QB Dwayne Haskins ($9,000), WR Paris Campbell ($5,400), WR K.J. Hill ($4,700), WR Johnnie Dixon ($4,600), RB Mike Weber ($4,800)

 

 

15. Miami 25.75 points (4.5-point favorite) vs. Pitt

PITT Def. S&P Rank: 71

PITT Def. Passing S&P Rank: 83 (pass funnel)

PITT Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 48

 

WR Lawrence Cager ($4,600) should be more relied on with the three receiving options unavailable this week (33 targets total over the last three weeks are missing), but we are also chasing is the porous Pitt pass defense.  … Injury Notes: Both WR/TE Belvin Jordan and WR/TE Will Mallory are out. WR Jeff Thomas was also kicked off the team. … Fringe Plays: QB N’Kosi Perry ($5,700), WR Darrell Langham ($3,600), WR Dee Wiggins ($3,000), RB Travis Homer ($5,200).

 

 

16. Syracuse 25.25 points (7-point underdog) at Boston College

BC Def. S&P Rank: 28

BC Def. Passing S&P Rank: 36

BC Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 50

 

Injury Notes: QB Eric Dungey is questionable with an upper-body injury, but I’m not interested in him even if he suits up with the added re-injury risk and tough Boston College defense. … Fringe Plays: RB Moe Neal ($5,000), WR Taj Harris ($4,300).

 

 

17. Florida State 22.75 points (6.5-point underdog) vs. Florida

UF Def. S&P Rank: 29

UF Def. Passing S&P Rank: 34

UF Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 41

 

Fringe Plays: RB Cam Akers ($5,800), WR Tamorrion Terry ($5,700), WR Keyshawn Helton ($4,000)

 

 

18. Minnesota 21.75 points (10.5-point underdog) at Wisconsin

WISC Def. S&P Rank: 40

WISC Def. Passing S&P Rank: 64

WISC Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 69

 

RB Mohamed Ibrahim ($6,300) doesn’t have game script in his favor, but he has at least 18 carries in the last five games and Minnesota has lost four of those games, so it likely doesn’t matter that Minnesota is a 10.5-point underdog. The high volume keeps him in play in tournaments, but Jonathan Taylor and the Badgers might run out this clock quickly. … Fringe Plays: WR Rashod Bateman ($5,200)

 

 

19. Georgia Tech 21.25 points (17-point underdog) at Georgia

UGA Def. S&P Rank: 18

UGA Def. Passing S&P Rank: 7

UGA Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 71 (run funnel)

 

Fringe Plays: QB Tyquon Marshall ($6,200).

 

 

20. Pitt 21.25 points (4.5-point underdog) at Miami

MIA Def. S&P Rank: 13

MIA Def. Passing S&P Rank: 9

MIA Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 32

 

Fringe Plays: None.

 

 

21. Maryland 20.0 points (13.5-point underdog) at Penn State

PSU Def. S&P Rank: 12

PSU Def. Passing S&P Rank: 11

PSU Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 43

 

Fringe Plays: RB Anthony McFarland ($7,200)

 

 

22. Auburn 14.0 points (24.5-point underdog) at Alabama

BAMA Def. S&P Rank: 6

BAMA Def. Passing S&P Rank: 5

BAMA Def. Rushing S&P Rank: 4

 

Fringe Plays: None.




Email :Hayden Winks



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