John McNamara

Long-Term 101

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Long-Term 101, Volume One

Friday, April 06, 2012


We are excited to roll out a new feature at Rotoworld and I am thankful to return from retirement to be a part of the team again. The purpose of the Long-Term 101 is to highlight the fantasy value over a 365-day period instead of a weekly synopsis.

 

I will post six features throughout the year, tying these columns to big events or to a time on the schedule with some significance.

 

The Long-Term 101 will help you propose and accept trades throughout the year. It will provide continuous analysis of where a player ranks versus his competitors. These rankings will be based on money order, stats, trends, regularity of events on the PGA Tour and future schedules.

 

This inaugural edition publishes after the second reshuffle and at the start of the Masters. The next feature will post in mid-May.

 

Please utilize my “Open Door” email policy to make each fantasy team a success in ’12. I will answer every email and will prefer to talk via the phone on certain occasions. Find me on Twitter at @J_McNamara_Golf  or email me at JMacFantasyGolf@aim.com with any questions.

 

Rank Player (2012 Preseason Rank) ... Comments

1.       Tiger Woods (3) ... Stat line looks similar to dominating days. HUGE win at Bay Hill.

2.       Phil Mickelson (10) ... Won at Pebble Beach, P2 at NTO, three top 10s, but GIR in reverse.

3.       Rory McIlroy (12) ... 3-for-3 in top 10s on PGA Tour and has massive upside, but I still worry about long-term schedule.

4.       Luke Donald (1) ... Started slow, but is now ranked No. 1 in the world again; extremely consistent and has become a closer.

5.       Hunter Mahan (9) ... Hottest golfer on PGA Tour; Great ball-striker and his short game continues to improve.

6.       Steve Stricker (7) ... “Steady Stricker” continues to produce. He is trending forward with his irons (3rd in GIR) and putting (69th in SG-P) will level out to a more normal level.

7.       Keegan Bradley (42) ... I am late to the party, but I am a believer and he gets it in the hole. Now has 12 straight top-25 finishes dating back to ’11.

8.       Justin Rose (29) ... Proving he belongs with elite. Now ranks ninth in OWGR. Foley Camp well represented with Tiger, Mahan and Rose in top 10.

9.       Webb Simpson (5) ... Be patient, attributes not far off from ’11 numbers and still has three top 10s.

10.     Adam Scott (6) ... I am still a believer, but lack of participation is concerning.

11.     Jason Day (4) ... See Scott above.

12.     Lee Westwood (14) ... Would be much higher, but I expect him play only 10 more times on the PGA Tour.

13.     Bubba Watson (15) ... Continues to improve and I am a big fan, but I would like to see some growth with short game (159th in scrambling and 152nd in SG-P).

14.     Matt Kuchar (11) ... See Simpson above, but Kuchar showing enormous digression with putting (107th in SG-P).

15.     Charl Schwartzel (31) ... Garnering more attention every year, but his schedule keeps him from being much higher.

16.     Bill Haas (21) ... Not sexy, but certainly productive. I do not like that when he is “off,” he is really “off."

17.     Kyle Stanley (19) ... With more experience, he could be the next star on PGA Tour, but he needs to improve short game. That will come with time.

18.     Bo Van Pelt (17) ... Perfect for leagues that reward top 10s. Has four already, but gets lost looking for winner's circle.

19.     Brandt Snedeker (18) ... Taking next step in his maturation process. GIR is flat from 2011, but he has a win a three top 10s already in ‘12.

20.     Dustin Johnson (8) ... “Tweak” in his back is concerning, but that is coupled with off-season knee surgery. Not what we expected.

21.     Aaron Baddeley (22) ... Results are not indicative his positive trends in scrambling and putting and his GIR is flat versus ’12. Big summer on the way.

22.     Nick Watney (2) ... Tremendous negative trend with his short game which indicates last year’s growth was an anomaly. Worried.

23.     Gary Woodland (20) ... Has now made 21 straight cuts. Be patient as he will be fine long-term.

24.     Graeme McDowell (61) ... Ball-striking showing signs of ’10 again and he has two top 10s in five starts.

25.     Jason Dufner (67) ... The ’11 PGA Championship was not a fluke. Positive trends across the board and he ranks 31st in OWGR.

26.     Ben Crane (109) ... The shoulder injury that was thought to have plagued Crane in ’12 has been a non-issue.

27.     Jim Furyk (13) ... Continues to show signs of coming around and he now has seven top 25s in his last 11 PGA Tour starts.

28.     Zach Johnson (30) ... ZJ seems so close to breaking through, but numbers have digressed thus far versus ’11.

29.     Charles Howell III (16) ... Poor man’s Bo Van Pelt.

30.     Mark Wilson (68) ... Maybe a bit aggressive, but he is a horse for certain courses and has three wins in the last 15 months.

31.     Kevin Na (41) ... His G.A.S. Gauge stays full and he fights for every shot. Matured and getting better.

32.     K.J. Choi (24) ... He is looking forward to Bermuda grass.

33.     Martin Laird (34) ... Can he take next step? Short game stats indicate a regression.

34.     Sergio Garcia (49) ... Very aggressive ranking, but his SG-P ranks 13th and he stripes his irons.

35.     David Toms (23) ... Numbers are not as good as '11, but there is plenty left in his tank.

36.     Sang-Moon Bae (79) ... Wish his ball-striking was better (159th in GIR), but he is a star in the making.

37.     John Senden (44) ... Putting is going wrong direction, but his irons continue to keep on the forefront.

38.     Bud Cauley (65) ... I love his upside and he has very consistent numbers across the board. Gigantic for keeper leagues.

39.     Rickie Fowler (33) ... He needs to stay inside top 50 in OWGR (41st now) to insure he maintains current status. Might help if he drops out and plays more against lesser talent.

40.     Geoff Ogilvy (37) ... I still expect a big year. I just wished he played more often.

41.     Ryan Palmer (60) ... Mr. Underrated will be ready for Texas Swing.

42.     Fredrik Jacobson (25) ... Junkman started year with thumb injury and he has yet to takeoff, but he will be fine in the long run.

43.     Martin Kaymer (N/A) ... Too good of a player not to make noise in his next six to seven events.

44.     Peter Hanson (N/A) ... See Kaymer above and they are closer to 43 and 43A.

45.     Johnson Wagner (140) ... I did not see this coming, but he continues to impress me. He ranks 26th in GIR, 23rd in scrambling and 11th in SG-P. Come get you some!

46.     Bryce Molder (26) ... Was too bullish on him to start the year, but he hasn't disappointed either.

47.     Carl Pettersson (27) ... Signs of brilliance and missed cuts makes it tough on weekly games, but he still holds long-term value.

48.     Jeff Overton (76) ... GIR is holding to form from years past, but he ranks 21st in scrambling and 29th in SG-P. Go get him. He is going to heat up.

49.     Spencer Levin (39) ... Worry about recent WD at Houston, but had a nice start to ‘12 season.

50.     Chris Kirk (28) ... Settling in with new baby, but he will be fine over the course of a year.

51.     Ernie Els (56) ... Still showing big signs of improvement over ’11. If drive is there, he will improve on this ranking.

52.     Paul Casey (54) ... Take a Valium and just keep on the back burner. He is going to be fine.

53.     John Rollins (64) ... Who knows when he's going to show up. He has three top 10s in nine starts, but has missed four of last five cuts.

54.     Cameron Tringale (40) ... Showing signs that he has game to be at the next level, but struggles to put four good rounds in a tourney, except for Torrey Pines.

55.     Scott Piercy (32) ... Not a disappointment thus far, but failed to fire on a couple of occasions. Nice 62 at the Transitions.

56.     Jonathan Byrd (59) ... This is perfect spot for him.

57.     John Huh (150+) ... Many will argue that he should be higher after his win at Mayakoba, but his stat line concerns me (ranks 90-98 in GIR, scrambling and SG-P).

58.     Robert Garrigus (117) ... A bomber sets up for certain courses and continues to get better.

59.     Sean O'Hair (129) ... Substantial improvement across the board. Kudos to who took a shot on O’Hair during their draft.

60.     Louis Oosthuizen (55) ... Game starting to turn around, but he will need to play more if he wants to move up list.

61.     George McNeill (154) ... Big win in Puerto Rico and is rolling rock and chipping it with great skill. His GIR is better than previous years and could be higher.

62.     Brian Davis (72) ... GIR ranks 138th thus far versus 40th in ’11, but he does have two top fives.

63.     Brian Gay (74) ... Has best short game in the business and he sets up perfect for many tracks out there. Be patient and play him in right spots and he will reward.

64.     Greg Chalmers (38) ... The success in Australia last fall did not carry over to ’12. Sorry, for rolling Box Cars and crapping out.

65.     Brendon de Jonge (47) ... The big fella has his short game in reverse. 

66.     Henrik Stenson (114) ... Showing signs of life. Hope you got on him before he was snagged from your free-agent pool.

67.     Robert Allenby (43) ... Might not ever be the same after the epic collapse at the Mayakoba.

68.     Harris English (75) ... So close to being really good, but he chips it awful (142nd) compared to GIR and SG-P. Short siding himself too much. Goes for too many pins (15th in par-breakers).

69.     Charlie Wi (58) ... Much better in year-long leagues than weekly leagues.

70.     Y.E. Yang (62) ... Short game is off the charts, but struggles with irons (181st in GIR). WOW!

71.     Robert Karlsson (100) ... Take away the St. Jude in Memphis and he loses a small fortune.

72.     Kevin Streelman (45) ... Thought he would turn corner. Still might, but short game likes precision.

73.     J.B. Holmes (123) ... Good to see him back out there and the Shell was encouraging.

74.     Ian Poulter (70) ... Poulter is struggling with putter (126th in SG-P) more than in years past and his irons are not getting it close to the hole (139th in GIR). He has one top 10 in five starts.

75.     Chris Stroud (121) ... Short game is off the charts.

76.     Ryo Ishikawa (N/A) ... He has to earn enough money for full membership for this ranking to hold true.

77.     Camilo Villegas (57) ... Irons are better than previous years, and he has value in year-long league, but do not overpay.

78.     Vijay Singh (93) ... Where did his ball-striking go? He now ranks 146th in GIR.

79.     Brendan Steele (106) ... Still riding last year’s win.

80.     D.A. Points (118) ... See Steele above.

81.     Stewart Cink (130) ... Starting to see some light. Tread carefully though.

82.     Josh Teater (50) ... Expect a big summer for Teater.

83.     Pat Perez (99) ... PP showing signs, but very inconsistent.

84.     Michael Thompson (83) ... Jury is still out.

85.     Harrison Frazar (162) ... Going in the wrong direction.

86.     Trevor Immelman (52) ... Signs of a turnaround, but a regression usually follows.

87.     Retief Goosen (35) ... “Nice job, John! 35th?!? Yeah Right!” Back issues not helping.

88.     Rory Sabbatini (127) ... New swing coach has not helped yet. Be patient.

89.     Matt Every (112) ... Two top 10s and ranks fourth in reshuffle.

90.     Seung-yul Noh (71) ... Possesses a lot of talent, but short game is atrocious.

91.     Padraig Harrington (128) ... I like him to come back. Wish I could trade for him.

92.     Ryan Moore (107) ... You can have him.

93.     Ricky Barnes (96) ... He is 55th on money list with one top 10. Short game numbers match poor ’10 year.

94.     Rod Pampling (150) ... I grabbed him in a league, but it’s a long shot.

95.     Lucas Glover (78) ... Want to go wakeboarding, Lucas?

96.     Jimmy Walker (95) ... The Baylor Bear makes birdies in bunches, but ranks 112th in GIR.

97.     Tom Gillis (138) ... Year-round value. More relevant than most think.

98.     John Mallinger (124) ... Sits second in the reshuffle with $528,790.

99.     Steve Marino (63) ... Still has value in long-term leagues.

100.   Brandt Jobe (82) ... Has not fired in ’12. Not a guarantee either.

101.   Anthony Kim (36) ... Mr. Irrelevant.



John McNamara wrote full-time for Rotoworld in 2010 and 2011, but he still maintains the pulse of the landscape. He was FSWA’s Golf Writer of the Year in 2008 and 2010.
Email :John McNamara


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