John McNamara

Long-Term 101

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Long-Term 101, Volume Two

Friday, May 04, 2012


"Long-Term 101, Volume One"

 

Here is the Long-Term 101, Volume Two. I am humbled to be a part of an amazing lineup with Rotoworld Golf. The feedback for Volume One was outstanding and I appreciate the support.

 

I had several inquiries if the rankings were designed for a specific “type” of league. The answer is no. The purpose of the Long-Term 101 is to highlight the fantasy value over a 365-day period instead of a weekly synopsis. This cheat sheet uses top finishes (money) and quality of play to measure the rise or fall compared to the previous volume.

 

It will benefit gamers who are in yearlong draft leagues or trade leagues, or weekly leaguers that like to follow trends. It will also provide periodic synopses of the ups and downs of each player and where he ranks versus his competitors.

 

These rankings will be based on the ‘12 money order, stats, trends, regularity of events on the PGA TOUR only, and players' future schedules.

 

I will post six features throughout the year, tying these columns to big events or to a time on the schedule with some significance.

 

Please utilize my “Open Door” email policy to make each fantasy team a success this season. I will answer every email and will prefer to talk via the phone on certain occasions. Find me on Twitter at @J_McNamara_Golf  or email me at JMacFantasyGolf@aim.com with any questions.

 

Rank   Player (Volume One Rank) ... Comments

1.       Tiger Woods (1) ... Digressed slightly in key stats, but not enough to drop him down in the order.

2.       Phil Mickelson (2) ... Strong Masters, but that's his only event since Volume 1. Like his schedule better than Rory McIlroy's, or the young lad would get the nod.

3.       Rory McIlroy (3) ... Like Tiger, the Masters was not what the Northern Irishman was looking for, but he will play at least 10 more times after the Quail Hollow. STUD!

4.       Luke Donald (4) ... Posted T32 at the Masters, T37 at Harbour Town, but finished third in New Orleans.

5.       Hunter Mahan (5) ... Like Mickelson, has only played the Masters since last column, but game is at elite level.

6.       Steve Stricker (6) ... Surprised to see Stricker digressing in SG-P (now 77th, was 69th in Volume 1). Nothing alarming, but worth noting going forward.

7.       Bubba Watson (13) … Masters win was spectacular and will boost an already strong career.

8.       Justin Rose (8) ... Back-to-back top 10s at the Masters and Zurich. I tried to trade for him, but Patrick Bigelow said no-dice. He made right call giving me the Heisman Hand.

9.       Keegan Bradley (7) ... Disappointing Masters (T27), but the MC in New Orleans was more shocking. No worries long-term. Just ride the super soph.

10.     Webb Simpson (9) ... Solid week in New Orleans, but scrambling dropped to 122nd from 60th before the Masters. Ranked 60th in ’11. Worrisome.

11.     Lee Westwood (12) ... Will play at least nine more times after Quail Hollow. Short game and lack of PGA TOUR events keeps him at back of first round or start of second round.

12.     Adam Scott (10) ... Look on the bright side, Scott owners, you will get him at least 11 more times in ’12. No value to trade, just hang tight.

13.     Matt Kuchar (14) ... T3 at the Masters was a surprise. Disappointing T44 in HHI, but solid T13 in New Orleans. Wish I had pulled trigger on Kuchar on Watney four weeks ago.

14.     Brandt Snedeker (19) ... Two straight top 25s and his short game is excellent. Proving he is no longer, a horse-for-a-course, and can contend on many tracks.

15.     Jason Dufner (25) … Continues to display positive trends and his win in New Orleans should only improve his recent tear. Marrying Amanda Boyd this weekend will help too.  

16.     Jason Day (11) ... Tom Petty and Heartbreakers wrote a song about Day, “Free Fallin”. Might help if he would tee it up. Should tee it up the next three weeks.

17.     Bill Haas (16) ... I repeat myself from last edition, I do not like that when he is “off,” he is really “off."

18.     Jim Furyk (27) ... Now has nine top 25s in last 11 PGA TOUR starts.

19.     Bo Van Pelt (18) ... Big digression with GIR and scrambling over last two weeks. MC at Heritage a concern and 64 on Sunday at Augusta masked a mediocre week. Tad concerned.

20.     Charl Schwartzel (15) … Will likely see him nine more times. Traded for him in one of my leagues. Already regret it.

21.     Zach Johnson (28) … Finished second in Hilton Head. Love his upside. Irons always a bit of a concern, but on right course, he could win any week. 

22.     Dustin Johnson (20) … Would take him all day with 20th pick regardless of recent back injury.

23.     Nick Watney (22) … It is all good, Watney owners, I unloaded him this week for Schwartzel. Sorry Charl owners.

24.     John Senden (37) … Tried to trade for him, but owner thought I was trying to pull a fast one on him. HUGE strides with his scrambling. I am a believer.

25.     Graeme McDowell (24) … He seems so close, but so far away. I traded him with Watney for Schwartzel and J.B. Holmes. Jury is laughing at me as they head back into the courtroom.

26.     Kevin Na (31) … I do not think he will be playing Texas Open until there is a venue change. Get him now if you can, it will provide positive dividends.

27.     Ernie Els (51) … Played his way into the U.S. Open after a loss to Dufner in a playoff in New Orleans. SG-P is trending forward; now 78th.

28.     Kyle Stanley          (17) ... Short game continues to haunt Stanley and he dropped 10 spots in GIR. Still wish I owned in either of my leagues. He is a primetime playa.

29.     Charles Howell III (29) ... I throw my hands up in the air. I do not understand how he does not contend on a regular basis.

30.     Carl Pettersson (47) … Ranks 67th in GIR (101 last year), 39th in scrambling, and 22nd in SG-P. IMPRESSIVE! Ranked 27th preseason, but was out to lunch with him in first feature.

31.     Aaron Baddeley (21) … Irons and scrambling continue to digress.

32.     Rickie Fowler (39) … I have been tough on Rickie, but I love seeing him in B+ and B events.

33.     Sergio Garcia (34) … Do not count on any major wins, but he can still compete week-to-week.

34.     K.J. Choi (32) … Irons going forward and he is a buy-low candidate.

35.     Martin Laird (33) … Uneventful year, but I like Laird’s ball-striking. His short game is too detrimental to reach next level at this point.

36.     Geoff Ogilvy (40) … Does not have a top 10 in ’12, but I still like his skill set.

37.     Mark Wilson (30) … Loves the West Coast, but loses traction in spring and summer.

38.     Peter Hanson (44) … Kudos to Rob Bolton for early calling this success from Hanson in his preseason rankings. I am a believer.

39.     Ryan Palmer (41) … Nice trend with his irons and finished T4 at the Zurich last week.

40.     David Toms (35) … Next four weeks fit perfectly into his wheelhouse. Monitor this segment for strong assessment of his game.

41.     Gary Woodland (23) … Unload if possible, but only for a top-three-rounds player. Still has not missed a cut in last 22 starts. Struggling with wrist injury suffered at the Masters.

42.     Ben Crane (26) … Irons indicate I am making a mistake dropping him down, but the MC at Zurich is not the sign I wanted to see.

43.     Sang-Moon Bae (36) … Withdrew at the Heritage after round one with a shoulder injury, but teed it up in South Korea last week.

44.     Cameron Tringale (54) … Scrambling and putting are starting to heat up. Watch out.

45.     Fredrik Jacobson (42) … Irons on par with ’11, but short game is not even close.

46.     Bud Cauley (38) … Raw talent with solid all-around game.

47.     Martin Kaymer (43) … Has not been competitive enough in his three starts to justify being in any higher.

48.     Bryce Molder (46) … Not getting near enough out his game ranking top-11 in GIR, scrambling and SG-P.

49.     Johnson Wagner (45) … Short game heading backwards.

50.     Jeff Overton (48) … Could it be another hot summer for Overton like ’10.

51.     Louis Oosthuizen (60) … Would be higher if he played more often on the PGA TOUR.

52.     Scott Piercy (55) … Shake the typical bad couple of holes per event and he could be a star.

53.     Chris Kirk (50) … I might be too kind, but I believe in him long-term.

54.     John Rollins (53) … Has four top 10s and ranks higher on the money list than both Senden and CHIII. Does it sound like I am shopping him? I am, but Dave Kateeb said no thanks.

55.     John Huh (57) … Can roll the rock. I own him in no-trade league, or he would be shipped off with a huge thanks.

56.     Spencer Levin (49) … Ranks 131st in GIR in ’12 compared to 35th to end ’11. Huge strides in SG-P though.

57.     Robert Garrigus (58) … Chipping is getting better, but putter still stunts his growth. Big-time talent and continues to improve though.

58.     Jonathan Byrd (56) … Eerily similar splits to ’11, but still inconsistent.

59.     Ian Poulter (74) … Coming off a seventh at the Masters and a third at Bay Hill, but I am still not a huge fan.

60.     Brian Davis (62) … Love the Englishman’s game at the moment, but he has some work to reach ’11 GIR numbers (35th) in ’12 (110th), which is up from 138th before Masters.

61.     George McNeill (61) … Great short game in ’12, but is upside an anomaly or will his numbers revert to his normal splits prior to ’12?

62.     Michael Thompson (84) … I believe in this guy and his flat stick is lethal.

63.     Brian Gay (63) … Started off ’12 a little slow with the blade, but he is heating up. Irons better in ’12 than in ’11 and ’10.

64.     Sean O’Hair (59) … Going backwards since last feature.

65.     Pat Perez (83) … Splits are similar to ’11 numbers. Worthy of a flier and I would trade for him. However, Steve Roth, an ASU graduate has a death grip on Perez.

66.     Greg Chalmers (64) … Hank Haney’s book, “The Big Miss” chronicles my preseason rank of Chalmers to start the year (38th).

67.     Chris Stroud (75) … Irons are not up to form from ’11, but his results do not indicate the digression.

68.     Charlie Wi (69) … Same old, same old.

69.     Harris English (68) … Watch out if he learns how to chip it, ranks 135th in proximity to the hole inside 30 yards.

70.     Y.E. Yang (70) … Great short game, but irons are suspect.

71.     Henrik Stenson (66) … Time will tell if early-season success is a fluke. Splits show a negative trend in big three.

72.     Robert Allenby (67) … Short game is dreadful.

73.     Matt Every (89) … Every has four top fours and short game is trending forward. Kudos if you drafted him.

74.     Brendon de Jonge (65) … Hope you had him last year.

75.     J.B. Holmes (73) … Took him over Streelman in a trade. Recovery from offseason brain surgery is going well.

76.     Kevin Streelman (72) … Irons are much improved over years past. Must be the “Tour Striker” swing aid.

77.     Ken Duke (n/a) … Do not watch him swing, just watch the results.

78.     Rory Sabbatini (88) … Showing signs of life after early-season swing change.

79.     Ryo Ishikawa (76) … Japan Golf Tour should grab his attention, but still worthy of a flier.

80.     Camilo Villegas (77) … Ranks 32nd in GIR and ranked 163rd in ’11.

81.     Harrison Frazar (85) … Might have seen the best of Frazar in our rear-view mirror.

82.     Ben Curtis (n/a) … I fell asleep at the wheel and missed picking him up. Grab him immediately if he is still a free agent.

83.     Paul Casey (52) … Might focus on European Tour.

84.     Vijay Singh (78) … Father Time is getting the best of the big fella.

85.     Padraig Harrington (91) … There is something left in the tank.

86.     Robert Karlsson (71) … How does he rank 42nd in the world?

87.     D.A. Points (80) … Solid stats, but nothing sexy.

88.     Josh Teater (82) … Little bump in the road, but I expect his strong irons to get him back into a groove.

89.     Ryan Moore (92) … Another buy-low candidate.

90.     Brendan Steele (79) … Hope you did not bite too soon to start the year. 

91.     Trevor Immelman (86) … I am losing hope ... quickly.

92.     Retief Goosen (87) … See Immelman.

93.     Seung-yul Noh (90) … Irons are solid, short game is gross.

94.     Ricky Barnes (93) … You can have him.

95.     Brian Harman (n/a) … Chips it fine, just cannot putt, but makes birdies in bunches.

96.     Lucas Glover (95) … See Ricky Barnes

97.     Charley Hoffman (n/a) … Mini-run recently.

98.     Kevin Stadler (n/a) … Love to watch him putt because I am guaranteed to see a temper that rivals my own.

99.     John Mallinger (98) … Solid peripherals.

100.   Steve Marino (99) … Right knee is still an issue.

101.   Stewart Cink (81) … Big week for Cink at Quail Hollow. Has great track record there and it is a nice indicator if there is hope for this season.

 



John McNamara wrote full-time for Rotoworld in 2010 and 2011, but he still maintains the pulse of the landscape. He was FSWA’s Golf Writer of the Year in 2008 and 2010.
Email :John McNamara



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