Looking ahead to the start of 2013, I can’t help but be blown away by the depth of the PGA TOUR. That’s attributed to a combination of things including more European players taking up status in the United States and strong classes coming both off the Web.com Tour and out of Q School’s final class.
Something we will visit periodically is how the list of players who will finish inside the top 125 of the FedExCup is taking shape, and who we like to be fully exempt for the 2013-2014 season via their performance in 2013.
Taken into account in this initial list are as many factors for which I can account including expected schedules and the known injuries. For example, we don’t expect Jonathan Byrd to play until the Florida Swing due to wrist surgery late in 2012, so he has already been bumped down as a result.
Here’s who I like as the eventual top 125 for 2013.
RANK GOLFER COMMENT
1. Rory McIlroy The only question surrounding him in the top spot is the equipment change to Nike. Talent should prevail.
2. Tiger Woods Should be another three-win season where he seriously contends in a couple of majors.
3. Justin Rose Since TOUR Championship runner-up, he's been in the top six in three of his last five events.
4. Luke Donald Finished in the top three in four of his last five worldwide starts including a win at the Dunlop Phoenix.
5. Louis Oosthuizen Hasn't finished worse than sixth in his last six starts across the globe, save a WD from the Alfred Dunhill Championship.
6. Dustin Johnson Should play a full season and he's won every year on TOUR. Had two top fives on West Coast Swing in 2012.
7. Keegan Bradley He will play like a man with something to prove with this putter controversy going on.
8. Brandt Snedeker Statistically the best putter in the world. Could be another top-10 season in the money.
9. Jason Dufner It's a tough ask for him to back up a life-changing 2012.
10. Bubba Watson A confident player, and dangerous when he can control his emotions.
11. Bo Van Pelt Finished first, T2 and third in his last three starts of 2012. Here's hoping it's not fool’s gold.
12. Adam Scott Plays a light schedule but should contend a few times and run into a win.
13. Hunter Mahan With the pressure of the Ryder Cup lifted, we should see the pre-Masters Mahan from 2012.
14. Zach Johnson Solid player with a great putter. It comes down to how big his good weeks are.
15. Matt Kuchar He's an ATM machine that will occasionally pick off a win. An American Adam Scott.
16. Ian Poulter A match-play giant, he recently added a win at the WGC-HSBC Champions to show promise in stroke-play formats.
17. Phil Mickelson Lefty looked human in 2012, barely hanging onto an automatic Ryder Cup berth.
18. Lee Westwood Seems to be no shortage of turmoil in the Westwood camp in terms of his support staff.
19. Charl Schwartzel Won his last two events by a wide margin in 2012 and was inside the top five in his last five worldwide starts despite a TOUR season below his standards.
20. Webb Simpson Other than the U.S. Open win, the rest of his 2012 felt like a half-step back from 2011.
21. Martin Kaymer The German will be a rookie on the PGA TOUR despite already being a major winner. Enters 2013 coming off a win at the Nedbank Golf Challenge.
22. Rickie Fowler We will find out soon enough how much of his poor play in the summer/fall of 2012 was related to Ryder Cup pressure.
23. Ryan Moore Top 10'd his last four starts, culminating with a win at the Justin Timberlake before the birth of his child.
24. Bud Cauley He's not going anywhere. Tends to run hot in extended spurts.
25. Seung-yul Noh He's made his last 20 cuts worldwide. Just needs to finish one off.
26. Graeme McDowell I'm not sure how I've faded him this far, other than he did not handle the lead well in the U.S. Open and The Open Championship.
27. Jonas Blixt Swede showed a flair for the dramatic with a third and a win in the Fall Series of his rookie year.
28. Jim Furyk This season will be a mental gut-check for Furyk, as he tries to shed the label of a choker.
29. Sergio Garcia We know he will do something brilliant and we know he will do something ridiculous. It’s the in-between that's hard to peg.
30. Tommy Gainey There may not have been a player on the globe that was more disappointed to see 2012 end.
31. Robert Garrigus With five runners-up in 2012, we are forced to wonder what could have been.
32. Peter Hanson Won the KLM Open and BMW Masters late in the year in Europe and played well in some big U.S. events, including a T3 at the Masters.
33. Chris Kirk Ended the season cashing in his last 12 events, including two ties for fourth.
34. Steve Stricker He showed signs in 2012 that his time as an elite player is running out. If he's a stock, now's the time to cash out.
35. Scott Piercy We can't lose our minds over a third at the John Deere and a win at the RBC Canadian, but his T2 at the WGC-HSBC was eye-opening.
36. Nicolas Colsaerts There's no question the talent is there. It's a matter of how quickly he adjusts to the PGA TOUR schedule.
37. Bill Haas Hasn't finished outside the top 35 in money in the last three seasons, but a strong pack of competition will test that this season.
38. Ernie Els Understandably disappeared after his win at The Open Championship and finally showed up again with a T2 at the WGC-HSBC.
39. Carl Pettersson He can be very dangerous in concentrated spurts. Ride him while hot, but not too long.
40. Luke Guthrie Likely the best rookie, I could see him having a year very similar to Bud Cauley's 2012.
41. Jason Day The Aussie sort of fell off the map for a while in 2012 coinciding with the birth of his child, but he's too talented not to bounce back in 2013.
42. Nick Watney I worry about his expected shift from Titleist to Nike given the importance of total driving and ball-striking to his game.
43. John Huh Came out of nowhere for a spectacular rookie season, but I could see a sophomore slump.
44. Harris English He has to play better in the final round when contending, and if he figures that piece out then he could be a star.
45. Scott Stallings Similar to Tommy Gainey, he's streaky and can take it low in events that turn into shootouts. Winner in each of his first two years on TOUR.
46. Martin Laird Felt like he cooled off some last year, but he's always a threat when length outweighs accuracy.
47. Vijay Singh Made his last 12 cuts, including four top 10s, but struggled putting tournaments away that were within reach.
48. Matt Every Twice a runner-up in 2012, and also contended at the Sony Open. He could sneak up and have a huge year.
49. Ross Fisher I'm less concerned about his ability than I am about his schedule. Must play and do well early.
50. Billy Horschel Finally getting full status and a solid number beside his name, this should be a great year for the former Florida All-American.
Looking ahead to the start of 2013, I can’t help but be blown away by the depth of the PGA TOUR. That’s attributed to a combination of things including more European players taking up status in the United States and strong classes coming both off the Web.com Tour and out of Q School’s final class.
Something we will visit periodically is how the list of players who will finish inside the top 125 of the FedExCup is taking shape, and who we like to be fully exempt for the 2013-2014 season via their performance in 2013.
Taken into account in this initial list are as many factors for which I can account including expected schedules and the known injuries. For example, we don’t expect Jonathan Byrd to play until the Florida Swing due to wrist surgery late in 2012, so he has already been bumped down as a result.
Here’s who I like as the eventual top 125 for 2013.
RANK GOLFER COMMENT
1. Rory McIlroy The only question surrounding him in the top spot is the equipment change to Nike. Talent should prevail.
2. Tiger Woods Should be another three-win season where he seriously contends in a couple of majors.
3. Justin Rose Since TOUR Championship runner-up, he's been in the top six in three of his last five events.
4. Luke Donald Finished in the top three in four of his last five worldwide starts including a win at the Dunlop Phoenix.
5. Louis Oosthuizen Hasn't finished worse than sixth in his last six starts across the globe, save a WD from the Alfred Dunhill Championship.
6. Dustin Johnson Should play a full season and he's won every year on TOUR. Had two top fives on West Coast Swing in 2012.
7. Keegan Bradley He will play like a man with something to prove with this putter controversy going on.
8. Brandt Snedeker Statistically the best putter in the world. Could be another top-10 season in the money.
9. Jason Dufner It's a tough ask for him to back up a life-changing 2012.
10. Bubba Watson A confident player, and dangerous when he can control his emotions.
11. Bo Van Pelt Finished first, T2 and third in his last three starts of 2012. Here's hoping it's not fool’s gold.
12. Adam Scott Plays a light schedule but should contend a few times and run into a win.
13. Hunter Mahan With the pressure of the Ryder Cup lifted, we should see the pre-Masters Mahan from 2012.
14. Zach Johnson Solid player with a great putter. It comes down to how big his good weeks are.
15. Matt Kuchar He's an ATM machine that will occasionally pick off a win. An American Adam Scott.
16. Ian Poulter A match-play giant, he recently added a win at the WGC-HSBC Champions to show promise in stroke-play formats.
17. Phil Mickelson Lefty looked human in 2012, barely hanging onto an automatic Ryder Cup berth.
18. Lee Westwood Seems to be no shortage of turmoil in the Westwood camp in terms of his support staff.
19. Charl Schwartzel Won his last two events by a wide margin in 2012 and was inside the top five in his last five worldwide starts despite a TOUR season below his standards.
20. Webb Simpson Other than the U.S. Open win, the rest of his 2012 felt like a half-step back from 2011.
21. Martin Kaymer The German will be a rookie on the PGA TOUR despite already being a major winner. Enters 2013 coming off a win at the Nedbank Golf Challenge.
22. Rickie Fowler We will find out soon enough how much of his poor play in the summer/fall of 2012 was related to Ryder Cup pressure.
23. Ryan Moore Top 10'd his last four starts, culminating with a win at the Justin Timberlake before the birth of his child.
24. Bud Cauley He's not going anywhere. Tends to run hot in extended spurts.
25. Seung-yul Noh He's made his last 20 cuts worldwide. Just needs to finish one off.
26. Graeme McDowell I'm not sure how I've faded him this far, other than he did not handle the lead well in the U.S. Open and The Open Championship.
27. Jonas Blixt Swede showed a flair for the dramatic with a third and a win in the Fall Series of his rookie year.
28. Jim Furyk This season will be a mental gut-check for Furyk, as he tries to shed the label of a choker.
29. Sergio Garcia We know he will do something brilliant and we know he will do something ridiculous. It’s the in-between that's hard to peg.
30. Tommy Gainey There may not have been a player on the globe that was more disappointed to see 2012 end.
31. Robert Garrigus With five runners-up in 2012, we are forced to wonder what could have been.
32. Peter Hanson Won the KLM Open and BMW Masters late in the year in Europe and played well in some big U.S. events, including a T3 at the Masters.
33. Chris Kirk Ended the season cashing in his last 12 events, including two ties for fourth.
34. Steve Stricker He showed signs in 2012 that his time as an elite player is running out. If he's a stock, now's the time to cash out.
35. Scott Piercy We can't lose our minds over a third at the John Deere and a win at the RBC Canadian, but his T2 at the WGC-HSBC was eye-opening.
36. Nicolas Colsaerts There's no question the talent is there. It's a matter of how quickly he adjusts to the PGA TOUR schedule.
37. Bill Haas Hasn't finished outside the top 35 in money in the last three seasons, but a strong pack of competition will test that this season.
38. Ernie Els Understandably disappeared after his win at The Open Championship and finally showed up again with a T2 at the WGC-HSBC.
39. Carl Pettersson He can be very dangerous in concentrated spurts. Ride him while hot, but not too long.
40. Luke Guthrie Likely the best rookie, I could see him having a year very similar to Bud Cauley's 2012.
41. Jason Day The Aussie sort of fell off the map for a while in 2012 coinciding with the birth of his child, but he's too talented not to bounce back in 2013.
42. Nick Watney I worry about his expected shift from Titleist to Nike given the importance of total driving and ball-striking to his game.
43. John Huh Came out of nowhere for a spectacular rookie season, but I could see a sophomore slump.
44. Harris English He has to play better in the final round when contending, and if he figures that piece out then he could be a star.
45. Scott Stallings Similar to Tommy Gainey, he's streaky and can take it low in events that turn into shootouts. Winner in each of his first two years on TOUR.
46. Martin Laird Felt like he cooled off some last year, but he's always a threat when length outweighs accuracy.
47. Vijay Singh Made his last 12 cuts, including four top 10s, but struggled putting tournaments away that were within reach.
48. Matt Every Twice a runner-up in 2012, and also contended at the Sony Open. He could sneak up and have a huge year.
49. Ross Fisher I'm less concerned about his ability than I am about his schedule. Must play and do well early.
50. Billy Horschel Finally getting full status and a solid number beside his name, this should be a great year for the former Florida All-American.
51. John Senden There's no mystery to the Aussie. He will go as far as his putter takes him and should make noise a few times.
52. Kevin Na Never fully rebounded from his driver yips at THE PLAYERS, posting just one top 10 on TOUR after that.
53. Brendon de Jonge Known for going low early in the week and backing up on weekends, he may have figured things out with a solo second at the Justin Timberlake and a tie for fourth at The McGladrey to end the year.
54. Ben Crane After three top 10s in his first four starts of 2012, he found only one more.
55. Jeff Overton With four runner-ups in 189 events and a Ryder Cup berth, the case could be made that he's currently the most accomplished player on TOUR without a win.
56. Aaron Baddeley Coming off a poor 2012 by his lofty standards, he must improve his accuracy in 2013 to allow his solid putter a chance to help him out.
57. Cameron Tringale Teased us with a nice run in the late spring, but didn't play any better than average after that.
58. Padraig Harrington He will play about 18 tournaments and likely factor the most in the toughest events.
59. Ryan Palmer Found three top fives in a solid 2012, but couldn't wrap up his fourth win.
60. David Toms Quietly had a good 2012, amassing five top 10s including a runner-up at The McGladrey Classic in just 19 starts. Spurned as a captain, maybe he'll make the 2014 Ryder Cup team.
61. Jimmy Walker Made 23 of 28 cuts with nine top 25s and six top 10s. Tied for fourth three times but never really scared the winner's circle.
62. Tim Clark Slow out the gates getting over an injury, he finished off 2012 with some serious signs of life.
63. Kevin Stadler Epitome of a streaky player, he's a great ball-striker that lives and dies by his putter.
64. Ken Duke Figured out his putter well enough to grab six top 10s in 30 starts after finding his way back to the PGA TOUR in 2012.
65. Russell Henley A talented player that appears streaky, going win-third-win in a three-tournament stretch on the Web.com Tour late in the season.
66. John Rollins Only made 15 cuts in 2012, but nine of those went for top 25s. He was 29th in ball-striking and 103rd in strokes gained-putting.
67. Charlie Wi Had his chances to break into the winner's circle in 2012, most notably in his runner-up at Pebble Beach when his normally excellent putter let him down.
68. Geoff Ogilvy The definition of mediocrity, he made 18 of 20 cuts and racked up 10 top 25s, but just one top 10 on TOUR in 2012. Needs a spark.
69. Charley Hoffman Comes off a normal year, making 18 of 27 cuts. For the second year in a row, he had six top 25s, two top 10s and a runner-up.
70. Charles Howell III Finished 2012 strong with top 15s in his last three starts. Despite a history of underperformance, he's a solid play at the Sony Open with two runners-up.
71. Blake Adams Nine top 25s and three top 10s in 2012 make him a threat to cash a decent check any given week. Not long, but solid across the board otherwise.
72. J.B. Holmes Came back from brain surgery to finish a respectable 80th on the money list in 2012. It's no secret his strength is his length.
73. Fredrik Jacobson It's rarely pretty, but the Swede gets the job done. He missed just two cuts in 17 tries with six top 25s.
74. Brian Davis Missed more cuts than usual in 2012, but got more out of the ones he made with three ties for fourth.
75. Bryce Molder At fifth in strokes gained-putting in 2012, he's a factor when the irons behave well.
76. Graham DeLaet Made a statement with his tie for fifth at The Barclays on Bethpage Black. He's not lacking for distance.
77. Mark Wilson The snowbird's won five times, but never later than March. He's got to get it early in the season.
78. Kyle Stanley Hasn't recorded a top 10 since his win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Expected equipment change to Nike and moving parts in his inner circle since that win caution me.
79. Michael Thompson He's had two nice years on TOUR, but misses his share of cuts. Relies heavily on the putter.
80. Pat Perez Generally a streaky and passionate player, he found nine top 25s but only one top 10 in 2012.
81. William McGirt Learned how to finish better in his sophomore season, earning his first three top 10s including a runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open.
82. Sean O’Hair Only managed two top 10s in 2012, with one coming at the Sony Open in week two. Was 163rd in strokes gained-putting.
83. Richard H. Lee Came on strong late in 2012 and coasted through Q School to improve from the 126-150 category. Expect a solid year.
84. Ryo Ishikawa Still stronger in Japan than the U.S., he did manage a runner-up in Puerto Rico in 2012. He hasn't shown the commitment to the PGA TOUR needed to establish himself as elite.
85. Morgan Hoffmann The rookie doesn't have the greatest number, but he finished inside the top 10 in five of his last six Web.com Tour events.
86. Brian Harman As a rookie off the mini tours, he made 21 of 30 cuts with nine top 25s. Never let himself fall into a big slump.
87. Johnson Wagner Started off 2012 with a tie for ninth, win and a tie for second, then fell off the map. Last top 25 was in March.
88. John Mallinger A runner-up in the Sony Open early and two fourth-place finishes late in the year were sandwiched around some spotty play. Feast or famine.
89. Lucas Glover Was set for a great 2012 before an injury derailed him. Could be a steal for gamers in salary formats.
90. Sang-moon Bae Started 2012 strong before a slump coincided with a shoulder injury. Seems to have bounced back in Asia of late.
91. Davis Love III With the weight of the Ryder Cup off his shoulders, he will likely put together a steady season.
92. Robert Karlsson Looks like he shook the swing yips of mid-summer by handling the pressure cooker of two stages of Q School without issue.
93. Daniel Summerhays A little feast-or-famine and played his best in weaker events with the exception of his T4 at Memorial.
94. John Merrick A runner-up at the FedEx St. Jude Championship covered up an otherwise unremarkable 2012.
95. Jonathan Byrd He'll get off to a late start due to wrist surgery. Expect him back on the Florida Swing.
96. Brian Gay Made 18 cuts and three top 10s in each of his last two seasons, but top 25s dropped dramatically raising concerns.
97. Rory Sabbatini Missed more cuts (16) than he made (13) in what was a year to forget for the normally dangerous South African.
98. K.J. Choi Hard to know what to expect. A year after finishing fourth on the money list he plummeted to 102nd in 2012.
99. George McNeill Cracked $1 million in five of his six years on TOUR, so probably won't drop much further than this.
100. Troy Matteson He will miss plenty of cuts, but has a few big weeks every year to keep him safe.
101. David Hearn Getting better in each of his first three seasons on TOUR, hitting seven figures for the first time in 2012.
102. Patrick Reed Has a terrible starting number, but showed that surviving Monday qualifiers was no issue in 2012.
103. Chad Campbell Declined in 2012, so we will find out soon enough if that was a blip on the radar or a trend.
104. D.A. Points A year after winning Pebble Beach, he was the sore thumb in the Rickie Fowler / Rory McIlroy playoff at Quail Hollow. Misses a bunch of cuts.
105. Casey Wittenberg Web.com Tour money leader means he is not subject to the reshuffle, giving him a fair shot to stick.
106. Spencer Levin Flirts with greatness, but has final-round issues often. 2012 impacted by late-season loss of his brother and thumb surgery.
107. Roberto Castro Ranked 18th in total driving and 36th in the all-around as a rookie. That suggests that big things could be around the corner.
108. Luke List Longest hitter on the Web.com Tour and had a win with three runners-up. Accuracy could hold him back, but expect a solid year.
109. Charlie Beljan He played 22 tournaments and was only relevant in three. Closed the year with a huge win to keep his card, but not a reliable player on a week-to-week basis.
110. Greg Chalmers His putter allows him to make plenty of cuts, but his ball-striking keeps him from contending very often.
111. Kevin Chappell Fought hard to finish in the 125th spot on the money list in 2012, but his talent suggests it shouldn't always be that difficult.
112. Andres Romero He's quietly been a steady, if not underrated TOUR player. Tied for second at Memorial and was third at Reno-Tahoe.
113. Marc Leishman Broke through with a win at the Travelers Championship, and hasn't contended since despite making plenty of cuts.
114. Brendan Steele Admittedly experimented with his schedule overseas a little too much in 2012, but may be more consistent in 2013.
115. Ted Potter, Jr. He's won on every level, and did so as a rookie in 2012. Good thing, because his only other top 25 was at Sony to start the year.
116. Josh Teater Plays a ton of events and is 17th in ball-striking, making him a long-term option for the few weeks his putter keeps pace.
117. Will Claxton Ranked ninth in ball-striking in a solid rookie season, but outside the top 100 in strokes gained-putting, scrambling and sand-save percentage.
118. Kevin Streelman It feels like he's trending in the wrong direction. He's very average in most categories and great in none.
119. Martin Flores Broke $1 million in his second try on TOUR due in large part to a putter that ranked him sixth in strokes gained.
120. Tom Gillis Watch out for him at The Honda Classic, where he was runner-up to McIlroy in 2012. Could be his pivotal event.
121. J.J. Henry Jumped back in the winner's circle at the Reno-Tahoe. He isn't bad statistically, but doesn't score well at all.
122. Greg Owen Back on TOUR after a brief hiatus, he easily kept his card despite being 174th in strokes gained-putting.
123. Ben Curtis He played out of his mind for about a month, winning an event an finishing runner-up in another, before returning to earth.
124. Dong-hwan Lee He won Q School and has a solid resume in Asia. He won't be as good off the bat as Seung-yul Noh or Sang-moon Bae, but should stick.
125. Robert Streb Very consistent in his first year on the Web.com Tour, and it will be that consistency that sneaks him into safety in 2013.
Next 5: Jhonattan Vegas, Chris Stroud, Ricky Barnes, Robert Allenby, Henrik Stenson
Factors that could provoke movement in this list in our first update that might not be so obvious would include players subject to the reshuffle getting off to a slow start, a player with a strong or weak history in the West Coast Swing playing to the opposite of their history, and a player normally strong or weak in a certain relevant statistical field showing a major improvement or falloff in that area.
Best of luck with your games!