Inside the Ropes
Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Kapalua Resort and Spa
Plantation Course
Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii
Plantation Course
Yards: 7,411
Par: 73 (36-37)
Greens: Bermudagrass (8,100 square feet on average)
Rough: Bermudagrass at 1.5”
Stimpmeter: 10’
Bunkers: 97
Water Hazard: Pacific Ocean but it’s not in play!
Course Architect: Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore
Purse: $5,700,000
Winner’s Share: $1,112,000
FexExCup Points: 500 to the winner
Defending Champion: Steve Stricker ran away from the field to win the title and thus being the first invite to the 2013 edition! Stricker is back to defend his championship.
Date: January 4-7
Format: The invitees are winners from the 2012 PGA Tour season. There are currently 30 in the field.
Notes: The first event of 2013 runs FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY and will NOT be cut after two rounds. For historical perspective, this tournament has been played at Kapalua since 1999 so that will by my end range for historical perspective.
Happy New Year and 2013!
I hope that you were naughty AND nice in 2012 and were rewarded by the fat man in the red suit for your efforts.
Now that you have throttled the turkey dinners and swigged down gallons of egg nog, it’s time to get back to being athletic by playing Fantasy Golf.
This will be my second year of trying to entertain and educate you guys as we all try to hoist the trophies in our respective leagues.
The “rules” this year are no different than they were last year: You ask, I’ll answer. Whether it’s via email, Twitter or carrier pigeon, all of us here at Rotoworld.com will do everything rational in our power to make sure that you have all the information you need to dominate your weekly, monthly or season-long fantasy leagues.
The Weekly Process
Each week, I go inside the course and the numbers trying to find you the players I believe who project to have the best chance of playing well. Since we are dealing with human beings, there are many factors I will consider when putting together my projections.
First, I’ll always take a look at class. There’s an old saying in the world that “form is temporary and class is permanent.” I’m a believer in that but I’m also watching to make sure that the form is doing its part as well. It’s silly to try and force square holes into round pegs (see: majors and WGC events) when the class players usually dominate.
I’ll also take a look at recent form (who’s hot), course history (horses for courses) and statistical trends (which players games fit the course) to develop the best projections possible. You’ll see over the year that riding a hot player is easy. The hard part is determining when to jump off. There are certain players who eat up certain courses; there are guys who stripe irons; there are guys who roll the rock. Depending on the style of course, I’ll make sure I cover all the angles.
Tell Me Who Are You?
Information is power. I’m here to help those of you who don’t have 40 hours a week to set your fantasy roster. Here are some great resources that you should bookmark to help you set your weekly line ups:
Rotoworld.com, as you are aware if you are reading this, is the best source of up-to-the-minute news, injuries and golf information. We’re glad you’ve found us. Now, follow us on Twitter (@Rotoworld_GF).
Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) is the Dean of fantasy golf writing. His insight for Rotoworld.com and PGATour.com cannot be missed on a weekly basis.
Ryan O’Sullivan (@RyanGolfBlogger) joined the crew at Rotoworld.com, as I did, last year and has great insight and strategy on all aspects of fantasy golf.
Please bookmark the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) and Jeff Sagarin’s Rankings at Golfweek.com to make your life easier.
Facebook, Twitter and player websites are another great source for information as they give us an inside-look at what makes them tick or what’s going on in their lives. Remember, even know they are golfers, they still are human beings, believe it or not. They have to deal with births, marriages, divorces, health issues and everything us mere mortals experience as well. These bumps in the road are good to know before drafting players, not after.
I will answer all of your questions at mikeglasscott@gmail.com or @GlassWGCL on Twitter. Please don’t hesitate to ask and I’ll be happy to help!
Don’t forget, this column will feature the weekly picks of myself, Rob, Ryan and Ned Brown in GolfChannel.com's Fantasy Challenge PLUS Ned’s world-famous weekly Yahoo! Fantasy Golf Picks. You can follow Ned on Twitter at @Esoxgolf.
History Lessons
Since opening “the arms of the sea” to the best players in golf in 1999, Kapalua has shown its generosity and teeth. If the wind is up, as it was in 2006, scores can be in high as Stuart Appleby won firing eight-under-par 284. If the wind is flat, like it was in 2003, scores can be LOOOOOOWWWWWWWW as Ernie Els carded 31-under 261 in his victory. Steve Stricker’s 23-under 269 last year took the average to just under 20-under for the winner since 1999.
Experience pays at Kapalua as six of the fourteen winners here have been major champions (Duval, Woods, Furyk, Els, Singh and Ogilvy). Three of the last five winners have NOT been major champions (Chopra, Byrd, Stricker). Add in Stuart Appleby’s three straight victories, plus Sergio Garcia’s win and you have a recipe that favors big-time players. Only Daniel Chopra (two career wins) sticks out on the list of winners. He’s only won twice in his career two months apart.
In 2012, only PGA West (Nicklaus Course) played easier than the Plantation Course at Kapalua, though.
Roll Call
Raise your hand if you are not here…
These folks won on TOUR and were eligible to participate but chose not to do so.
Here are the UNOFFICIAL reasons for not attending:
Phil Mickelson: He’s won here twice in eight tries but has not teed it up on Maui since 2001. Mickelson’s first event of the season will be the Humana Challenge for the second year running. He qualified by winning the AT&T Pebble Beach but is probably skiing this time of year.
Rory McIlroy: He’s too busy disseminating rumours that he and his girlfriend, Caroline Wozniacki are engaged. He’ll open his season at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship in the middle of January. Um, he qualified just a few ways…
Justin Rose: The winner of the WGC-Cadillac Championship at Doral, Rose has only played Kapalua once, in 2011. He’ll probably hang around Orlando watching the 2012 Ryder Cup highlights. Wouldn’t you?
Luke Donald: He won the Transitions Championship in a four-man playoff. This would have been his third appearance (2003, 2007). Donald cannot dig out of the snow in his Chicago home to get there in time…
Tiger Woods: Woods hasn’t been to Maui for competitive golf since 2005. In eight events here, he has two wins and four other top five finishes. His worst two finishes are T8 and T10. Sounds like easy money but who needs that!
Ernie Els: The Champion Golfer of 2012 was in action in Malaysia as late as December 16 and he will be taking this week off. As the Champion Golfer, he scoffs at what the rest of us think.
Sergio Garcia: The 2002 Champion qualified through his victory at the Wyndham Championship. Like Els, he was playing in Malaysia but he won, so he’s allowed to take a pass. I would guess he’s hitting tennis balls and visiting “The Mechanic” who broke his leg skiing last week. No cigars in the hospital, boys!
Interesting that nobody from this group is missing through injury!
Inside the Ropes
Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Kapalua Resort and Spa
Plantation Course
Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii
Plantation Course
Yards: 7,411
Par: 73 (36-37)
Greens: Bermudagrass (8,100 square feet on average)
Rough: Bermudagrass at 1.5”
Stimpmeter: 10’
Bunkers: 97
Water Hazard: Pacific Ocean but it’s not in play!
Course Architect: Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore
Purse: $5,700,000
Winner’s Share: $1,112,000
FexExCup Points: 500 to the winner
Defending Champion: Steve Stricker ran away from the field to win the title and thus being the first invite to the 2013 edition! Stricker is back to defend his championship.
Date: January 4-7
Format: The invitees are winners from the 2012 PGA Tour season. There are currently 30 in the field.
Notes: The first event of 2013 runs FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY and will NOT be cut after two rounds. For historical perspective, this tournament has been played at Kapalua since 1999 so that will by my end range for historical perspective.
Happy New Year and 2013!
I hope that you were naughty AND nice in 2012 and were rewarded by the fat man in the red suit for your efforts.
Now that you have throttled the turkey dinners and swigged down gallons of egg nog, it’s time to get back to being athletic by playing Fantasy Golf.
This will be my second year of trying to entertain and educate you guys as we all try to hoist the trophies in our respective leagues.
The “rules” this year are no different than they were last year: You ask, I’ll answer. Whether it’s via email, Twitter or carrier pigeon, all of us here at Rotoworld.com will do everything rational in our power to make sure that you have all the information you need to dominate your weekly, monthly or season-long fantasy leagues.
The Weekly Process
Each week, I go inside the course and the numbers trying to find you the players I believe who project to have the best chance of playing well. Since we are dealing with human beings, there are many factors I will consider when putting together my projections.
First, I’ll always take a look at class. There’s an old saying in the world that “form is temporary and class is permanent.” I’m a believer in that but I’m also watching to make sure that the form is doing its part as well. It’s silly to try and force square holes into round pegs (see: majors and WGC events) when the class players usually dominate.
I’ll also take a look at recent form (who’s hot), course history (horses for courses) and statistical trends (which players games fit the course) to develop the best projections possible. You’ll see over the year that riding a hot player is easy. The hard part is determining when to jump off. There are certain players who eat up certain courses; there are guys who stripe irons; there are guys who roll the rock. Depending on the style of course, I’ll make sure I cover all the angles.
Tell Me Who Are You?
Information is power. I’m here to help those of you who don’t have 40 hours a week to set your fantasy roster. Here are some great resources that you should bookmark to help you set your weekly line ups:
Rotoworld.com, as you are aware if you are reading this, is the best source of up-to-the-minute news, injuries and golf information. We’re glad you’ve found us. Now, follow us on Twitter (@Rotoworld_GF).
Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) is the Dean of fantasy golf writing. His insight for Rotoworld.com and PGATour.com cannot be missed on a weekly basis.
Ryan O’Sullivan (@RyanGolfBlogger) joined the crew at Rotoworld.com, as I did, last year and has great insight and strategy on all aspects of fantasy golf.
Please bookmark the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) and Jeff Sagarin’s Rankings at Golfweek.com to make your life easier.
Facebook, Twitter and player websites are another great source for information as they give us an inside-look at what makes them tick or what’s going on in their lives. Remember, even know they are golfers, they still are human beings, believe it or not. They have to deal with births, marriages, divorces, health issues and everything us mere mortals experience as well. These bumps in the road are good to know before drafting players, not after.
I will answer all of your questions at mikeglasscott@gmail.com or @GlassWGCL on Twitter. Please don’t hesitate to ask and I’ll be happy to help!
Don’t forget, this column will feature the weekly picks of myself, Rob, Ryan and Ned Brown in GolfChannel.com's Fantasy Challenge PLUS Ned’s world-famous weekly Yahoo! Fantasy Golf Picks. You can follow Ned on Twitter at @Esoxgolf.
History Lessons
Since opening “the arms of the sea” to the best players in golf in 1999, Kapalua has shown its generosity and teeth. If the wind is up, as it was in 2006, scores can be in high as Stuart Appleby won firing eight-under-par 284. If the wind is flat, like it was in 2003, scores can be LOOOOOOWWWWWWWW as Ernie Els carded 31-under 261 in his victory. Steve Stricker’s 23-under 269 last year took the average to just under 20-under for the winner since 1999.
Experience pays at Kapalua as six of the fourteen winners here have been major champions (Duval, Woods, Furyk, Els, Singh and Ogilvy). Three of the last five winners have NOT been major champions (Chopra, Byrd, Stricker). Add in Stuart Appleby’s three straight victories, plus Sergio Garcia’s win and you have a recipe that favors big-time players. Only Daniel Chopra (two career wins) sticks out on the list of winners. He’s only won twice in his career two months apart.
In 2012, only PGA West (Nicklaus Course) played easier than the Plantation Course at Kapalua, though.
Roll Call
Raise your hand if you are not here…
These folks won on TOUR and were eligible to participate but chose not to do so.
Here are the UNOFFICIAL reasons for not attending:
Phil Mickelson: He’s won here twice in eight tries but has not teed it up on Maui since 2001. Mickelson’s first event of the season will be the Humana Challenge for the second year running. He qualified by winning the AT&T Pebble Beach but is probably skiing this time of year.
Rory McIlroy: He’s too busy disseminating rumours that he and his girlfriend, Caroline Wozniacki are engaged. He’ll open his season at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship in the middle of January. Um, he qualified just a few ways…
Justin Rose: The winner of the WGC-Cadillac Championship at Doral, Rose has only played Kapalua once, in 2011. He’ll probably hang around Orlando watching the 2012 Ryder Cup highlights. Wouldn’t you?
Luke Donald: He won the Transitions Championship in a four-man playoff. This would have been his third appearance (2003, 2007). Donald cannot dig out of the snow in his Chicago home to get there in time…
Tiger Woods: Woods hasn’t been to Maui for competitive golf since 2005. In eight events here, he has two wins and four other top five finishes. His worst two finishes are T8 and T10. Sounds like easy money but who needs that!
Ernie Els: The Champion Golfer of 2012 was in action in Malaysia as late as December 16 and he will be taking this week off. As the Champion Golfer, he scoffs at what the rest of us think.
Sergio Garcia: The 2002 Champion qualified through his victory at the Wyndham Championship. Like Els, he was playing in Malaysia but he won, so he’s allowed to take a pass. I would guess he’s hitting tennis balls and visiting “The Mechanic” who broke his leg skiing last week. No cigars in the hospital, boys!
Interesting that nobody from this group is missing through injury!
Present and Accounted For
The field will consist of 16 of the top 30 from the FedExCup Final standings. This is the best field assembled since they started the FedExCup.
Of the 30 players in the field, I’ll break them into two categories to start:
Been Here, Done That
These players have experienced the wind and nuances of the Plantation Course.
Bubba Watson: He’s played only two of eight rounds in the 60’s in his only two starts. He finished seven-under (T25) in 2011 and eight-under (T18) last year. The Masters champion had an unbelievable run in 2012 as his worst finish when making the cut was T23 (The Open Championship) but he ended it with a T33 at the WGC-HSBC Champions after he couldn’t build on his opening round 66.
Brandt Snedeker: His first trip to Maui was in 2008 where he finished T10 (-12). Snedeker had six top 10s and was the FedExCup Playoffs champion to complete a dream season in 2012. He only played in one, late-season event, the WGC-HSBC Champions and his only round in the 60s there was a SIXTY in the third round. He finished T11.
Webb Simpson: In his first appearance last year, Simpson was the model of consistency as he fired rounds of 68-68-69-68 to finish T3 even though he made nothing on the greens. He only made four bogeys on the week so he’s should be raring to go after an uneven finish to 2012. His last appearance was T5 at THE TOUR Championship after MC at The Barclays, T18 at the Deutsche Bank and T51 at the BMW. He’ll be well-rested.
Ian Poulter: In his only appearance here in 2011, Poulter was comfortable firing four rounds under par to a T6 finish (-18). His 2012 was solid by his standards but ramped up to great by anyone’s standards come November. He dominated the Ryder Cup, again, plus he fired 65-65 on the weekend in China to win the WGC-HSBC Champions to make him eligible for this event. He also finished second at the Australian Masters as well. So he’s killing it in the Ryder Cup team game, singles and NOW stroke play as well? He had three top 10s in the majors this year as well. Don’t sleep on him.
Keegan Bradley: His maiden voyage was like riding the waves off the coast, up and down. He opened with 68 but his middle rounds of 72-75 made his 65 (solo 16) on Sunday seem like a wasted effort. He definitely found something on Sunday and we’ll see if he can carry it over to this year. If you’re wondering how Bradley has been playing look no further than his T23 at the WGC-HSBC Champions and solo second at the Tiger Woods World Golf Challenge. It’s hard to count him out anywhere anymore.
Steve Stricker: The 2012 Champion only made three bogeys on his way to his fourth-consecutive top 10 finish in Maui. Stricker was second in 2008, T10 in 2010 and T4 in 2011. He’s played 12 of his last 16 rounds here in the 60’s in that stretch. He is the only previous champion in this week’s field. Stricker has admitted to playing a very light 2012 so this week may be the week to burn him as he defends his championship.
Nick Watney: In three appearances at Kapalua, Watney has finished T5 (’08), T16 (’10) and T12 last year after a 68-68 finish on the weekend. Watney was quiet in 2012 until August hit. He went on to win The Barclays to open the FedExCup Playoffs and added the CIMB Classic in late October to his resume. Watney shot 61 in the final round to claim the victory and followed it up by shooting 62 the following week in China where he finished T16. The California-native opened with 67 at the Tiger Woods World Challenge before fading in the final three rounds in his last event of 2012.
Matt Kuchar: The “old” Kuchar played here as a pup in 2003 and finished T25. The “new” Kuchar was solo third here in 2010 as he fired 19-under and backed that up with 18-under (T6) in 2011. He obviously likes this layout. His game should be well-rested as he has only teed it up once since the Ryder Cup as he finished T11 at the Tiger Woods World Challenge.
Dustin Johnson: He’s finished 11th (2009), T16 (2010) and T9 in 2011 so he’ll be plenty of comfortable on the Plantation layout. In 2011, Johnson fired his career-low 66. His worst total is -13 and his best is -14. He finished the 2012 season with top 10s is ALL four Playoff events so he’s obviously healthy and ready to go for 2013. Don’t let that 84 in China throw you off! He finished T13 of 18 players in early December at the Tiger Woods World Challenge.
Zach Johnson: In five starts in this limited field, Johnson has only one top 10 finish. He has only fired in the 60’s in six of 20 rounds. After his two wins in the middle of the season, Johnson only had one top 10 in his final seven starts in 2012 but he was one of only three U.S. players to go undefeated at the Ryder Cup. His final stroke play tournament, the Tiger Woods World Challenge, he crashed and burned on Sunday with a 79. He has too much experience and moxie to dismiss all together but he’s not going to be in favorite’s section this week based on his history here.
Hunter Mahan: He’s finished T5 (-14) in 2008 and T25 (-7) in 2011 as he’s played three rounds of eight in the 60s, including 64 on Sunday in 2008. Mahan won twice in 2012 but his play slipped as the season boiled on, costing him a spot on the Ryder Cup team. He showed signs of life with a top 10 (T8) finish at the TOUR Championship. He also played in the TWWC where his final round 68 was the best of the day and led to his T9 finish. I’m interested to see how Mahan bounces in 2013 after the emotional roller coaster that was 2012.
Carl Pettersson: The American, nee Swede, is playing Kapalua for the fifth time in his career. He’s played his last nine rounds under par which helped him vault to T4 in 2011. His other three finishes were 21st, T22 and 17th. He finished solo seventh, closing with 62 at the CIMB Classic before his T16 at the HSBC Champions so he finished 2012 on the upswing.
Bill Haas: This will be his third straight appearance on Maui as he finished solo eighth in 2011 and 20th last year. In his two events here, Haas has never gone lower than 68 and his high round is 73 (par) twice. His only top 10 of the PGA season after his win at the Northern Trust was T7 at the Wyndham Championship. Haas rallied at the end of the year to finish T16 at the CIMB and T10 at the WGC-HSBC Champions.
Ryan Moore: After winning the Timberlake in the Fall Series, Moore will make his second appearance at Kapalua. His first time around he wasn’t lower than 68 but didn’t drift above 70 either for T6 (-17). Moore was excited to see 2012 end as his wife was getting ready to give birth to their first child after his win in October. But he could have been saddened in the sense that his golf game was on fire. He finished the year with that victory after posting three top 10s in the FedExPlayoffs.
Scott Piercy: He broke his maiden here last year with rounds that improved daily (72-71-69-68) to finish T12 (-12). Piercy has shown some solid play over the last two years and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him take another step this season either. His victory at the RBC Canadian Open was his centerpiece to the 2012 campaign but he also closed with 64-62 at the CIMB for T10 and 68-65 at the HSBC-Champions to finish T2 in his final two starts of the year.
Ben Curtis: Yikes. He’s broke par here once in eight rounds. In 2012, he had an incredible four-week run from mid-April to mid-May where he finished WIN (Valero), T13 (Zurich), T5 (Wells Fargo) and T2 (THE PLAYERS). His finish at THE PLAYERS was his last top of ten of the season in his final 13 events. When he’s hot, he’s hot…
Mark Wilson: This will be his fourth start at Kapalua and it’s fair to say that this course doesn’t fit his eye. In 12 rounds here, he’s fired in the 60’s one time, last year in round three, on his way to his best finish, T18 (-8). In 2010 he was two-under and in 2008 he was one-under. He also played the WGC-HSBC Champions and was T46 (-1). If 20-under is the average winning score at Kapalua, I’m not sure I can endorse Wilson this week. I’ll wait until the Sony Open or the following weeks in the desert.
Johnson Wagner: Speaking of early season triumphs, January of 2012 was the month of the moustache as the man with two last names started off on FIYAH. He opened the season T9 at Kapalua and followed that with a WIN at the Sony Open plus T2 the next week at the Humana Challenge. It wasn’t until March when he surfaced in the top 10 again as he posted T4 at Arnold Palmer’s tournament. His best finish in his next 19 starts was T29 the following week at the Shell Houston Open. He finished 2012 with T33 at the CIMB and T75 at the WGC-HSBC Champions. He likes Kapalua as shown above and has played all eight rounds here under par. He backed last year’s T9 with a solo-tenth (-14) in 2009.
Scott Stallings: His welcome to Kapalua last year saw him fire two of his four rounds over par (-5) to finish T22, which is strange for a guy who usually dismantles easier courses with birdies. I would suggest his T15 (McGladrey) and T5 (CMNHC) Fall Series finishes will have him amped and raring to go for 2013. Stallings won the True South Classic by firing 24-under to qualify for the HTOC.
George McNeill: His only other appearance was T25 (-2) in 2008 at Kapalua. McNeill struggled in 2012 as his victory in Puerto Rico (nice!) was his only top 10 (naughty) of the season. He added three top 25s to his win in 24 events. Fade.
J.J. Henry: His only start here came in 2007 as he fired rounds three and four under par to finish T8 (-6). Winds must have been up that year because six-under would not have landed you in the top 20 (of 28 golfers) last year. Henry won at the Reno-Tahoe Open and was T3 at the Byron Nelson. His other top 10 (T9) was at Puerto Rico. Two of his best three finishes were in off weeks or opposite events. Not this week.
Excuse Me Sir, Where’s the First Tee and What’s the Course Record?
And now for our “virgins”, the first tee is over there and the course record at Kapalua in this event is 62 by Graeme McDowell and K.J. Choi. They’ll have to learn quickly that putts will break toward the big mountain. Well, that’s what I learned from Mark Rolfing last year! Not many inexperienced players win here.
Jason Dufner: If anyone first-timer has a chance here, it’s Dufner. He’s shown over the last two years that his game translates on multiple courses on multiple continents. A three-week run in Australia and Asia saw him finish second, T16 and T2 in his final events over 2012. Do you think his personality and Hawaii will mesh? I just hope he’s not toooooooooooooooo mellowed out that he forgets to go low and get after it. I’m expecting big things from Dufner in 2013 and I think he could be this year’s Webb Simpson (-19, T3 in 2012 in his first appearance).
Rickie Fowler: 2012 saw him take his first of many (in my opinion) victories on TOUR. His playoff win at Quail Hollow over Rory McIlroy and D.A. Points brings Fowler to Kapalua for the first time. Fowler had a stellar stretch of events starting with the Zurich Classic (T10) that cemented his status as a big-time player on TOUR. He followed that with a win at Quail Hollow, T2 at THE PLAYERS, T5 at Colonial and he was playing in the final group on Sunday at the Memorial with Tiger Woods before an 84 knocked him all the way to T52. I’m glad I projected him as my winner that week…Anyhow, he faded down the stretch and into the playoffs but he seems to be over his October back injury evidenced by his T4 finish at the Tiger Woods World Challenge. I wish he would have been T4 at the Memorial…
John Huh: The 2012 Rookie of the Year won in his fifth pro event on TOUR defeating Robert Allenby in an eight-hole playoff at Mayakoba to gain entrance into the HTOC. Huh had three top 12s in his first six events as a pro and ended up with 12 top 25s in 28 events. The rookie even made the TOUR Championship. Not a bad year! He can really stripe his driver and is a very solid putter. His lack of length here shouldn’t bother his ability to make birdies. Just ask Steve Stricker!
Jonas Blixt: A rib injury derailed the most positive part of his 2012 rookie season but the former FSU Seminole rallied in the Fall Series to finish third (Timberlake) and WIN (Frys.com) in consecutive weeks to claim his card and an exempt status for the next two seasons. One of the great scenes of the Fall Series is when his family doused him with Champagne after sinking the winning putt on hole No. 72 at the Frys.com. He’s a great putter and should enjoy his chances on these huge greens this week.
Kyle Stanley: You saw what he was made of early in 2012 after he blew a huge lead to Brandt Snedeker in the final round of the Famers at Torrey Pines. He rallied the next week by overcoming his own huge deficit on Sunday to claim his first WIN on TOUR at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Unfortunately for Stanley, he had no other finishes better than T19 in his 22 final starts of 2012. He played the CIMB and was T41 (of 48 players) and he finished T65 (of 78) players at the WGC-HSBC Champions in his final two events of the calendar year. The talent is there but he went through three caddies last season and he is now changing equipment as he moves to Nike in 2013. I’ll need to see some positivity before jumping on this year.
Marc Leishman: The Aussie’s 2012 was punctuated by his first career WIN on TOUR when he fired a sweet Sunday 62 at The Travelers. He finished his round a good two hours before the leaders and he waited patiently as they all fell apart down the stretch to guarantee his place in Maui this week. He made 19 of 23 cuts last year and also had a T3 at the Byron Nelson. He was one shot better than Kyle Stanley at the CIMB but was T18 at the WGC-HSBC Champions. If the wind is up this week, Leishman won’t be bothered, so keep that in mind!
Ted Potter, Jr.: The rookie won at The Greenbrier Classic by firing 64-64 on the weekend to book his HTOC spot. Sadly for Potter, his only other top 25 finish in 25 events was his season opener (T13) at the Sony Open. His best finish in nine events after his win in July was T56 (twice). I can’t see him being a factor this week.
Tommy Gainey: He’s the iron man of this group as he logged 32 events in 2012. He enjoyed his first career WIN at The McGladrey as he fired a final round SIXTY to catch and pass the leaders. He made 18 cuts and also was third at Colonial. Everyone loves “Two Gloves” but his penchant to fire in the low 60’s is as frequent as his trips to the low 80’s. He’ll be interesting to watch regardless!
Charlie Beljan: What a story this was! Beljan had to be hospitalized after the second round Friday of the CMNHC but still found a way to persevere and win his first career event on Sunday. The CMNHC saw Beljan make the cut for the third straight event for the only time in 2012 so to say he ended the year with on a high note is completely understating his struggles earlier in the season. Sure he finished solo third at The Greenbrier but he only made NINE of 22 cuts in his rookie year. He hits it a mile and hits plenty of GIR but his putter is balky.
“Young” Guns versus “Middle” Guns versus “Old” Guns
In 46 events on TOUR in 2012 the “Young” guns knocked out the “Middle” and “Old” guns, 25-18-3.
"Since 2011 52% of the PGA Tour winners have been 32 years old or younger." - Billy Schroeder, PGA Tour VP Player Relations.
Well, that means just under half have been OVER 32 years of age!
Last year’s winners:
For the “Young”, age during their victory in ( ), Johnson Wagner (31), Brandt Snedeker TWICE (31), Kyle Stanley (24), Bill Haas (29), John Huh (21), Hunter Mahan TWICE (29) Rory McIlroy FOUR times (22), Justin Rose (31), Rickie Fowler (23), Dustin Johnson (27), Webb Simpson (26), Marc Leishman (29), Ted Potter, Jr. (28), Scott Stallings (27), Keegan Bradley (26), Sergio Garcia (32), Nick Watney TWICE (31),Ryan Moore (29) and Jonas Blixt (28) were your winners.
The “Middle” guys were Mark Wilson (37), George McNeill (36), Luke Donald (34), Tiger Woods THRICE (36), Bubba Watson (33), Carl Pettersson (34), Ben Curtis (34), Matt Kuchar (33), Jason Dufner TWICE (35), Zach Johnson TWICE (36), Scott Piercy (33) J.J. Henry (37), Tommy Gainey (37) and Ian Poulter (37).
Steve Stricker (44), Phil Mickelson (41) and Ernie Els (42) are the only “Old” guys to hit the board in 2012. At least 33% of their wins were majors! Stricker is the only “Old” dude teeing it up this week, although Wilson, McNeill, Henry, Gainey and Poulter are closing in on the big 4-0.
The Winning Formula
There’s no big secret that you need to go low at Kapalua to have a chance to win. As we have seen on TOUR over the years, there are many ways to achieve this and Kapalua has shown us that over the years.
The last two winners, Jonathan Byrd and Steve Stricker aren’t exactly the first guys on the “longest drive” stats at the end of the year but they found a way to navigate and win at Kapalua.
The fairways are more than generous but the rough is not penal so the guys who bomb away won’t worry about getting in much trouble.
The greens are quite large as well so putters that get it rolling can also make some noise. Also, rolling at only 9.5” to 10” on the stimpmeter will allow players to give putts a run at most pin placements.
In 2011, Jonathan Byrd made four bogeys en route to victory. In 2012, Steve Stricker made three.
This isn’t the week to not hit GIR and this isn’t the week to have a cool putter. Birdies, not pars, are the order of the day!
Back in the Saddle Again
I’m a little rusty from having five weeks off since the last column so just for you I’ll rank all 30 players in the field this week.
Best of the Best
1) Dustin Johnson
2) Webb Simpson
3) Jason Dufner
4) Matt Kuchar
5) Keegan Bradley
6) Steve Stricker
7) Ryan Moore
8) Nick Watney
9) Brandt Snedeker
10) Scott Piercy
In with a Shout
1) Ian Poulter
2) Bubba Watson
3) Jonas Blixt
4) Hunter Mahan
5) Zach Johnson
6) Carl Pettersson
7) Bill Haas
8) Johnson Wagner
9) John Huh
10) Ben Curtis
Aloha
1) Rickie Fowler
2) Tommy Gainey
3) Charlie Beljan
4) Scott Stallings
5) J.J. Henry
6) Kyle Stanley
7) George McNeill
8) Mark Wilson
9) Marc Leishman
10 )Ted Potter, Jr.
GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge: HTOC (Glass’ Picks)
Group 1: Webb Simpson
Group 2: Dustin Johnson
Group 3: Scott Piercy
Group 4: Jonas Blixt
GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge: HTOC (Rob’s Picks)
Group 1: Matt Kuchar
Group 2: Steve Stricker
Group 3: Scott Piercy
Group 4: Scott Stallings
GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge: HTOC (Ryan’s Picks)
Group 1: Matt Kuchar
Group 2: Steve Stricker
Group 3: Ian Poulter
Group 4: Tommy Gainey
GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge: HTOC (Ned’s Picks)
Group 1: Matt Kuchar
Group 2: Steve Stricker
Group 3: Ian Poulter
Group 4: Jonas Blixt
Ned said, “…
Ned Brown is a long-time contributor for Rotoworld Golf. He’s had documented success in Yahoo!’s game for years. Even if you’re confident in your selections for that game, give his insight a read. Now, Ned also provides us with his GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge selections as well!
Full Disclosure: I am NOT Ned! He’s smarter and better looking!
Group A
Brandt Snedeker-- A great run in the FedExCup Playoffs resulted in a FedExCup Championship. He did play in a couple of off-season events and he played well. His only start at Kapalua was in '08 when he tied for tenth place.
Jason Dufner-- This is the first time that Dufner has played in Kapalua, but he played well in the off-season and I was impressed with his performance at the WGC-HSBC Champions where he tied for second place.
SUPER SUBS
Bubba Watson, Bill Haas, Jonas Blixt
Group B
Steve Stricker-- Stricker made news this week by saying that he is thinking of playing in only ten events on this year's TOUR. As a result, you don't have to worry about rationing starts in the Yahoo! game. His recent record here is outstanding with four consecutive top 10s, which is highlighted by last year's championship.
Dustin Johnson-- Like Snedeker, Johnson had an outstanding run of top tens in each of the four FedExCup Playoff events. He didn't play that well in the off-season events, but his solid history at the Hyundai TOC makes him a good start this week.
Matt Kuchar- Kuchar did nothing in the FedExCup Playoffs until he tied for tenth at THE TOUR Championship. He played well in the off-season events, but what caught my eye was in his last two starts at Kapalua he has a third place ('10) and a tie for sixth ('11).
Webb Simpson-- He had a nice T5 at TOUR Championship, but he only played in Tiger's event in the off season. I'm going with him mostly because of his T3 last year at the TOC.
SUPER SUBS
Keegan Bradley, Nick Watney, Zach Johnson, Carl Pettersson
Group C
Ian Poulter-- Poulter lit it up in the off-season events with a fourth at the BMW Masters, a championship at the WGC-HSBC Champions and a second place at the Talisker Masters. He has played at Kapalua only once, but it was good for a tie for sixth place ('10).
Ryan Moore--Moore play very well in the FedExCup Playoffs, with three top 10s including a T3 at THE TOUR Championship. Like Poulter, Moore's only stop at Kapalua resulted in a T6 finish ('09).
SUPER SUBS
Rickie Fowler, Scott Piercy
And the analysis doesn't end here. Rotoworld's Rob Bolton and I will be co-hosting a one-hour live chat with on THURSDAY at NOON p.m. ET. We will be breaking down the field at Kapalua and answering your questions. Simply return to the golf home page to join in on the chatter.
Coming Monday Night: HTOC Wrap Up