History Lessons
Even though the Sony Open is the first full-field event of the season, now is it not the time to get caught up in the “rookie wave” that is about to hit Honolulu if you are looking for a winner this week. Experience pays at this old-style course and the last player to win this event in their 20’s was Paul Stankowski in 1997. The last first-time winner here was Jerry Kelly in 2002. Ted Potter, Jr. (T13), Sang-Moon Bae and Bud Cauley (T30 for both) were the lowest rookies in 2012 and Chris Kirk (T30) was the low rookie in 2011.
Since 1999, winners here have included Ryder Cuppers and major winners such as Jeff Sluman, Paul Azinger, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, David Toms and Zach Johnson. The “other” winners, besides Jerry Kelly at the time, Brad Faxon, Paul Goydos, K.J.Choi, Mark Wilson and Johnson Wagner all have multiple wins on TOUR in their careers. Also remember that nine of the last 14 winners here played the week before at Kapalua. #Trend.
Ernie Els is the only player to win the HTOC and the Sony Open in the same season.
“Young” Guns versus “Middle” Guns versus “Old” Guns
In 46 events on TOUR in 2012 the “Young” guns knocked out the “Middle” and “Old” guns, 25-18-3.
In one event this year, the 28-year old Johnson starts the “Young” guns off in the right direction. I would be shocked if this was the last time I typed his name in this column in 2013.
"Since 2011 52% of the PGA Tour winners have been 32 years old or younger." - Billy Schroeder, PGA Tour VP Player Relations.
Well, that means just under half have been OVER 32 years of age!
Last year’s winners:
For the “Young”, age during their victory in ( ), Johnson Wagner (31), Brandt Snedeker TWICE (31), Kyle Stanley (24), Bill Haas (29), John Huh (21), Hunter Mahan TWICE (29) Rory McIlroy FOUR times (22), Justin Rose (31), Rickie Fowler (23), Dustin Johnson (27), Webb Simpson (26), Marc Leishman (29), Ted Potter, Jr. (28), Scott Stallings (27), Keegan Bradley (26), Sergio Garcia (32), Nick Watney TWICE (31),Ryan Moore (29) and Jonas Blixt (28) were your winners.
The “Middle” guys are Mark Wilson (37), George McNeill (36), Luke Donald (34), Tiger Woods THRICE (36), Bubba Watson (33), Carl Pettersson (34), Ben Curtis (34), Matt Kuchar (33), Jason Dufner TWICE (35), Zach Johnson TWICE (36), Scott Piercy (33) J.J. Henry (37), Tommy Gainey (37) and now Ian Poulter (37) were victorious.
Steve Stricker (44), Phil Mickelson (41) and Ernie Els (42) are the only “Old” guys to hit the board in 2012. At least 33% of their wins were majors! Stricker is the only “Old” dude teeing it up this week, although Wilson, McNeill, Henry, Gainey and Poulter are closing in on the big 4-0.
Of Course
Seth Raynor’s design is the first of two (White Sulfur Springs; The Greenbrier Classic) of his masterpieces on the 2013 TOUR season. Waialae opened for play in February of 1927 but it wasn’t until 1965 that the TOUR showed up for play. Waialae is known for its narrow fairways and doglegs that require the players to work the golf ball in both directions. Those who miss fairways will have to deal with 2.5-inch deep rough when judging their approach shots. Once on the green, the undulation will make the premium putters drool and the average putters sweat.
Waialae Country Club ranked 28th hardest of the 49 courses used in the 2012 PGA TOUR season. The average winning score over the last 15 years has been right around 15-under-par so the players will still have to produce birdies and avoid bogeys to win. Even though Waialae has ranked near the top as one of the toughest course on TOUR to hit fairways, Johnson Wagner, who ended 2012 152nd on TOUR in driving accuracy, has also shown that you do not have to be an accurate driver of the golf ball to be successful here. He makes putts for a living and that’s what he did to be successful here in 2012. Firm and undulating greens have a way of balancing out the ball-strikers and the putters on TOUR.
Bogeys beware as well as Wilson, the winner in 2011, went his last 36 holes (all on Sunday!) without a making bogey and last year’s winner, Johnson Wagner, didn’t make a bogey on the back nine in four rounds.
Hang “10”
After scouring the data, form and history, these are the players I project to be at or near their best come Sunday (hopefully!) of this week!
(Editor's Note: Charles Howell III was omitted in the original submission)
Dustin Johnson: He has shown the penchant for playing tight courses with smallish-greens (Pebble Beach, TPC Southwind) and being successful. Johnson, who I believe will have a monster 2013, will be on this list frequently this year. He’s working on his short game and has the chops to handle any tracks on TOUR. If you’re afraid that his wildness off the tee might be a factor this week, remember that he was 26th on TOUR in GIR percentage from other than the fairway last year. He’s used to being off the short stuff and obviously it doesn’t bother him. With his length, he’s usually has a wedge or short iron in his hands which makes hitting GIR easier and he’s second in proximity to the hole from the rough. So there. In eight rounds at Waialae, Johnson has been par or better in the seven of them. He’s finished T10 (-6) in 2008 and T16 (-7) in 2010 so he’s been there, done that.
Keegan Bradley: Bradley is making his third consecutive trip to Honolulu to see if he can continue his improvement at Waialae. As a rookie in 2011, Bradley finished T68 an last year, he fired eight-under to finish T13. Bradley was No.1 in the all-around category in 2012 and has proven in his three wins that his game is also suited for any style of course on TOUR. All of those wins have also come on par-70 tracks (Firestone, Atlanta Athletic Club and TPC Four Seasons-Las Colinas).
Matt Kuchar: If it wasn’t for Kuchar’s last time playing here in 2011, he might not have been on the list this week. This will be his sixth Sony Open in seven years and his last visit, 2011, was the first time in five that he finished better than 65th (T5). He MC in the other three events. He’s only missed THREE cuts on TOUR in the last two years! Kuchar’s ball-striking and putting will make him a factor every week he tees it up as well in 2013!
Charles Howell III: In 40 career rounds at Waialae, CH III has played only six of them over par. Six. He also has six top 10 finishes in his 11 events as well so to say he's comfortable here would be a HUGE understatement. In his last four events here, he's finished fourth, T5, T68 and T2 last year. He finished 2012 with three events all inside the top 15 so he should be feeling pretty good about his game heading into 2013. He hasn't cracked into that elite group that we all thought he would 10 years ago but he's as steady as they come and cashed tons of checks. This week shouldn't be any different.
Zach Johnson: When you think of accuracy off the tee and strong putting, Zach Johnson is one of the first names that pop into my tiny brain inside my huge noggin. Johnson was 14th in fairways and sixth in strokes gained-putting last year and he’s proven that his game suits this course with a victory in 2009 and T12 in 2010. The last two seasons he’s finished T57 and T54 as weather has wreaked havoc on this event. His last two seasons have seen him make the cut in 43 of 48 events including 24 of 25 last year. DING!
Ryan Moore: He closed out 2012 with the birth of his first son so he’ll probably be excited to get away and get some sleep! His lack of length off the tee won’t be much of a concern this week because his ball-striking and putting should carry the load. He’s 21st in strokes gained-putting and makes tons of birdies. He hasn’t played here since 2006 so I’m relying on his current form to take over.
Webb Simpson: This will be Simpson’s fifth attempt to conquer Waialae in the last five seasons. Last year, he admitted after the tournament that he was out of gas from the 2011 regular season and was looking forward to some time off. In 2012, Simpson took time off in July and August as his wife gave birth to their second child. Simpson should be rested and ready to go as he looks to build on finishes of T9, T77, T46 and T38 last year. Sure, he can spray it a bit off the tee that doesn’t scare me off of him. He finished 34th in GIR last season 8th in 2011. Oh, and he makes tons of birdies as well which will come in handy around here!
Brendon de Jonge: If there’s a tournament scheduled this week or any week, de Jonge will be entered. His four seasons on TOUR have seen him play 29, 32, 30 and 31 starts. He’s made the cut in 89 of those starts including a career-best 27 (of 31) last year. He hit the top 25 11 times as well as he racked up the most money on TOUR without a victory last year. de Jonge missed the cut here in his first three starts but has finished T20 in 2011 and T10 last year. His second round 62 last year was his career-low round on TOUR. He was eighth on TOUR in GIR, first in birdies and was 24th in ball-striking last year so you know he’ll have plenty of chances this week.
Carl Pettersson: I hesitated to put Pettersson on here because this is an ODD year. After MC in his maiden voyage in 2004, Pettersson has made the cut in every EVEN year tournament since. In 2006 he was T10; T25 in 2008; T5 in 2010 and T2 last year. You wanna guess what happens in the ODD years? Go ahead. In three odd year tournaments, he’s broken 70 once. Statistical anomaly? Cursed like the Brady Bunch when they went to Hawaii? His final round, double-bogey on No. 2 set him in a hole but he dug out with six closing birdies to rebound last year. I’ll stick with him as that can’t hurt his confidence and he’s coming off a career year.
Tim Clark: In his three starts here, he’s been par or better in 11 of 12 rounds, including a pair of 64s. Now that Clark is healthy again, he will factor more consistently. We all had a glimpse of the “old” Tim Clark during the summer last year as he banged out six top 25s in nine events which included a T4 at the Travelers and a solo second at the Wyndham Championship. Clark’s three finishes here are T12 (2009), T25 (2010) and T2 (2011).
Johnson Wagner/Jimmy Walker: This year’s Johnson Wagner? Could be! He’s a very solid putter whose ball-striking is a bit loose. Walker has spent time this winter working with Butch Harmon so I’m encouraged to see how that works out. Walker has played here six times and made the cut in half of those appearances. 72-68 last year saw him MC but in 2011 he finished solo fourth with all four rounds in the 60s, including 65-66 Friday and Saturday. Wagner is your defending champion who MC the three previous years before winning. Makes sense!
Sony Open
Waialae Country Club
Honolulu, Hawaii
Yards: 7,044
Par: 70 (35-35)
Greens: Bermudagrass (6,500 square feet on average)
Rough: Bermudagrass at 2.5”
Stimpmeter: 11’
Bunkers: 78
Water Hazards: 4
Course Architect: Seth Raynor (1927)
Purse: $5,500,000
Winner’s Share: $990,000
FexExCup Points: 500 to the winner
Defending Champion: Johnson Wagner held off Carl Pettersson, Sean O’Hair, Charles Howell III and Harrison Frazar to claim his third victory on TOUR.
Dates: January 10-13
Format: The first full-field tournament of 2013 that will feature stroke play for 72 holes with the top 70 and ties advancing to the weekend.
Notes: In the Hawaiian language, Honolulu means “sheltered bay” or “place of shelter”. Who says you don’t learn anything by reading this column? After taking a beating from the wind and the rain last week at Kapalua (“arms of the sea”) this is fitting!
Happy New Year and 2013!
I’ll leave these opening paragraphs in the column for these first few tournaments in January so everyone can get caught up!
I hope that you were naughty AND nice in 2012 and were rewarded by the fat man in the red suit for your efforts.
Now that you have throttled the turkey dinners and swigged down gallons of egg nog, it’s time to get back to being athletic by playing Fantasy Golf.
This will be my second year of trying to entertain and educate you guys as we all try to hoist the trophies in our respective leagues.
The “rules” this year are no different than they were last year: You ask, I’ll answer. Whether it’s via email, Twitter or carrier pigeon, all of us here at Rotoworld.com will do everything rational in our power to make sure that you have all the information you need to dominate your weekly, monthly or season-long fantasy leagues.
The Weekly Process
Each week, I go inside the course and the numbers trying to find you the players I believe who project to have the best chance of playing well. Since we are dealing with human beings, there are many factors I will consider when putting together my projections.
First, I’ll always take a look at class. There’s an old saying in the world that “form is temporary and class is permanent.” I’m a believer in that but I’m also watching to make sure that the form is doing its part as well. It’s silly to try and force square holes into round pegs (see: majors and WGC events) when the class players usually dominate.
I’ll also take a look at recent form (who’s hot), course history (horses for courses) and statistical trends (which players games fit the course) to develop the best projections possible. You’ll see over the year that riding a hot player is easy. The hard part is determining when to jump off. There are certain players who eat up certain courses; there are guys who stripe irons; there are guys who roll the rock. Depending on the style of course, I’ll make sure I cover all the angles.
Tell Me Who Are You?
Information is power. I’m here to help those of you who don’t have 40 hours a week to set your fantasy roster. Here are some great resources that you should bookmark to help you set your weekly line ups:
Rotoworld.com, as you are aware if you are reading this, is the best source of up-to-the-minute news, injuries and golf information. We’re glad you’ve found us. Now, follow us on Twitter (@Rotoworld_GF).
Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) is the Dean of fantasy golf writing. His insight for Rotoworld.com and PGATour.com cannot be missed on a weekly basis.
Ryan O’Sullivan (@RyanGolfBlogger) joined the crew at Rotoworld.com, as I did, last year and has great insight and strategy on all aspects of fantasy golf.
Please bookmark the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) and Jeff Sagarin’s Rankings at Golfweek.com to make your life easier.
Facebook, Twitter and player websites are another great source for information as they give us an inside-look at what makes them tick or what’s going on in their lives. Remember, even know they are golfers, they still are human beings, believe it or not. They have to deal with births, marriages, divorces, health issues and everything us mere mortals experience as well. These bumps in the road are good to know before drafting players, not after.
I will answer all of your questions at mikeglasscott@gmail.com or @GlassWGCL on Twitter. Please don’t hesitate to ask and I’ll be happy to help!
Don’t forget, this column will feature the weekly picks of myself, Rob, Ryan and Ned Brown in the GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge PLUS Ned’s world-famous weekly Yahoo! Fantasy Golf Picks. You can follow Ned on Twitter @Esoxgolf.
Last “Week” at Kapalua…
Usually, I will write a wrap-up column, “The Takeaway” Sunday nights after the golf finishes. As we all know, the golf was going to finish Monday night of this week if everything went according to Hoyle but obviously Hoyle was still on winter break or didn’t answer his phone this week. Whatever. We’re tough, we’re dealing with it and we’re moving forward!
Since the tournament wrap-up and preview have overlapped, I’ll give you a quick recap of the events at the HTOC below before I preview the Sony Open in case you’ve been out of the loop.
After cancelling play twice on the island of Maui, the PGA TOUR finally kicked off the 2013 season on MONDAY with 36 holes and finished on Tuesday with 18 more. Dustin Johnson avoided three-putts and lost balls over 54 holes to fire 16-under-par 203 to win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions at Kapalua. He held off fellow U.S. Ryder Cup teammates Steve Stricker, who finished second four shots back, Brandt Snedeker (six back) and Bubba Watson and Keegan Bradley (seven back).
This is Johnson’s seventh victory on TOUR in his PGA career. He joins Tiger Woods as the only TOUR players to win in six consecutive seasons after leaving college. Johnson collects 500 FedExCup points and $1,140,000. Remember, since the tournament went 54 holes, all the exemptions, payoffs and FedExCup points were the same as a 72-hole finish. Johnson is the king of 54-hole victories on TOUR as this is the third one of his career. He won a rain-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach and a hurricane-shortened Barclays so this was old hat for him. Johnson arrived the week before the tournament and was playing Kapalua every morning. His homework and his short game work paid off this week. He was the only golfer to play all rounds in the 60’s and still was 16-under in THAT weather. His driver was crooked and led to some nervy moments but when he’s chipping in and holing birdie putts from everywhere, he’s almost unbeatable. He’s now eligible for this tournament again next year and he is a must on your radar EVERY time he tees it up.
Steve Stricker fought through a nerve problem that was giving him shooting pains in his back and leg on Monday to finish 67-69 for solo second. Stricker will have to find a victory in 2013 to make it back here next year but if he’s not an automatic choice (if healthy) for you here next year, you need your head examined. In five starts here Stricker has finished second, WIN, T4, T10 and second.
Brandt Snedeker, buoyed by his quite amazing 2012, showed no signs of slowing down this week as he finished in third place by himself. The TOUR and FedExCup Champion made a run at Stricker and Johnson on Tuesday but his usually wonderful flat stick went cool on the back nine. I wouldn’t worry about that one bit as the season progresses and I liked the grit “Opie Taylor” showed this week.
Here are the players moving on to the Sony Open (as of 6 pm Tuesday):
Keegan Bradley: His T4 finish should have him confident and ready to go on Thursday.
Tommy Gainey: T6 with all three rounds under par. Well done, rookie!
Carl Pettersson: Solo eighth with all three rounds under par.
Matt Kuchar: T9 after an opening round 74. Rallied for 71-69 finish.
Mark Wilson: Best finish ever, T11, even with a second round 76.
Webb Simpson: He was three under through 7 the FIRST time they threw the scores out. Didn’t break 70 in three rounds but all were under par for T11.
J.J. Henry: T13 with nine birdies and six bogeys. Lots of pars.
Johnson Wagner: Three straight 72s. T13. Defending champ at the Sony.
Scott Stallings: He was seven over on the first day. Made the most of his mulligan T13.
Scott Piercy: Three bogeys and a late double knocked him out of the top 10.
Jonas Blixt: He’ll be happy not to play No. 5 again for a while. He was four OVER on this par 5 at Kapalua. T18.
Ben Curtis: Four putted the first two holes on the second attempt to get things going. His middle round of 76 sunk any chances he had. T18.
John Huh: One round under par in his first time here. Experience pays usually. T18.
Zach Johnson: Another year at Kapalua, another year outside the top 10. In six events, his best finish was T6 in 2009. T18 this week.
Marc Leishman: Finally broke par in the final round 75-75-71 as the rookie here finished T23.
Ted Potter, Jr.: Ten bogeys and a double = T26.
Ryan Moore: 77-76 finish doesn’t inspire confidence for Sony but I’m sticking with him as he knocked off the rust. Adjusting to the wife and kid will keep my attention. T28.
George McNeill: One top 10 in now six events. T28.
Kyle Stanley: 78-80 before his final round of 72 (-1). Nike clubs didn’t’ help this week. 30th.
History Lessons
Even though the Sony Open is the first full-field event of the season, now is it not the time to get caught up in the “rookie wave” that is about to hit Honolulu if you are looking for a winner this week. Experience pays at this old-style course and the last player to win this event in their 20’s was Paul Stankowski in 1997. The last first-time winner here was Jerry Kelly in 2002. Ted Potter, Jr. (T13), Sang-Moon Bae and Bud Cauley (T30 for both) were the lowest rookies in 2012 and Chris Kirk (T30) was the low rookie in 2011.
Since 1999, winners here have included Ryder Cuppers and major winners such as Jeff Sluman, Paul Azinger, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, David Toms and Zach Johnson. The “other” winners, besides Jerry Kelly at the time, Brad Faxon, Paul Goydos, K.J.Choi, Mark Wilson and Johnson Wagner all have multiple wins on TOUR in their careers. Also remember that nine of the last 14 winners here played the week before at Kapalua. #Trend.
Ernie Els is the only player to win the HTOC and the Sony Open in the same season.
“Young” Guns versus “Middle” Guns versus “Old” Guns
In 46 events on TOUR in 2012 the “Young” guns knocked out the “Middle” and “Old” guns, 25-18-3.
In one event this year, the 28-year old Johnson starts the “Young” guns off in the right direction. I would be shocked if this was the last time I typed his name in this column in 2013.
"Since 2011 52% of the PGA Tour winners have been 32 years old or younger." - Billy Schroeder, PGA Tour VP Player Relations.
Well, that means just under half have been OVER 32 years of age!
Last year’s winners:
For the “Young”, age during their victory in ( ), Johnson Wagner (31), Brandt Snedeker TWICE (31), Kyle Stanley (24), Bill Haas (29), John Huh (21), Hunter Mahan TWICE (29) Rory McIlroy FOUR times (22), Justin Rose (31), Rickie Fowler (23), Dustin Johnson (27), Webb Simpson (26), Marc Leishman (29), Ted Potter, Jr. (28), Scott Stallings (27), Keegan Bradley (26), Sergio Garcia (32), Nick Watney TWICE (31),Ryan Moore (29) and Jonas Blixt (28) were your winners.
The “Middle” guys are Mark Wilson (37), George McNeill (36), Luke Donald (34), Tiger Woods THRICE (36), Bubba Watson (33), Carl Pettersson (34), Ben Curtis (34), Matt Kuchar (33), Jason Dufner TWICE (35), Zach Johnson TWICE (36), Scott Piercy (33) J.J. Henry (37), Tommy Gainey (37) and now Ian Poulter (37) were victorious.
Steve Stricker (44), Phil Mickelson (41) and Ernie Els (42) are the only “Old” guys to hit the board in 2012. At least 33% of their wins were majors! Stricker is the only “Old” dude teeing it up this week, although Wilson, McNeill, Henry, Gainey and Poulter are closing in on the big 4-0.
Of Course
Seth Raynor’s design is the first of two (White Sulfur Springs; The Greenbrier Classic) of his masterpieces on the 2013 TOUR season. Waialae opened for play in February of 1927 but it wasn’t until 1965 that the TOUR showed up for play. Waialae is known for its narrow fairways and doglegs that require the players to work the golf ball in both directions. Those who miss fairways will have to deal with 2.5-inch deep rough when judging their approach shots. Once on the green, the undulation will make the premium putters drool and the average putters sweat.
Waialae Country Club ranked 28th hardest of the 49 courses used in the 2012 PGA TOUR season. The average winning score over the last 15 years has been right around 15-under-par so the players will still have to produce birdies and avoid bogeys to win. Even though Waialae has ranked near the top as one of the toughest course on TOUR to hit fairways, Johnson Wagner, who ended 2012 152nd on TOUR in driving accuracy, has also shown that you do not have to be an accurate driver of the golf ball to be successful here. He makes putts for a living and that’s what he did to be successful here in 2012. Firm and undulating greens have a way of balancing out the ball-strikers and the putters on TOUR.
Bogeys beware as well as Wilson, the winner in 2011, went his last 36 holes (all on Sunday!) without a making bogey and last year’s winner, Johnson Wagner, didn’t make a bogey on the back nine in four rounds.
Hang “10”
After scouring the data, form and history, these are the players I project to be at or near their best come Sunday (hopefully!) of this week!
(Editor's Note: Charles Howell III was omitted in the original submission)
Dustin Johnson: He has shown the penchant for playing tight courses with smallish-greens (Pebble Beach, TPC Southwind) and being successful. Johnson, who I believe will have a monster 2013, will be on this list frequently this year. He’s working on his short game and has the chops to handle any tracks on TOUR. If you’re afraid that his wildness off the tee might be a factor this week, remember that he was 26th on TOUR in GIR percentage from other than the fairway last year. He’s used to being off the short stuff and obviously it doesn’t bother him. With his length, he’s usually has a wedge or short iron in his hands which makes hitting GIR easier and he’s second in proximity to the hole from the rough. So there. In eight rounds at Waialae, Johnson has been par or better in the seven of them. He’s finished T10 (-6) in 2008 and T16 (-7) in 2010 so he’s been there, done that.
Keegan Bradley: Bradley is making his third consecutive trip to Honolulu to see if he can continue his improvement at Waialae. As a rookie in 2011, Bradley finished T68 an last year, he fired eight-under to finish T13. Bradley was No.1 in the all-around category in 2012 and has proven in his three wins that his game is also suited for any style of course on TOUR. All of those wins have also come on par-70 tracks (Firestone, Atlanta Athletic Club and TPC Four Seasons-Las Colinas).
Matt Kuchar: If it wasn’t for Kuchar’s last time playing here in 2011, he might not have been on the list this week. This will be his sixth Sony Open in seven years and his last visit, 2011, was the first time in five that he finished better than 65th (T5). He MC in the other three events. He’s only missed THREE cuts on TOUR in the last two years! Kuchar’s ball-striking and putting will make him a factor every week he tees it up as well in 2013!
Charles Howell III: In 40 career rounds at Waialae, CH III has played only six of them over par. Six. He also has six top 10 finishes in his 11 events as well so to say he's comfortable here would be a HUGE understatement. In his last four events here, he's finished fourth, T5, T68 and T2 last year. He finished 2012 with three events all inside the top 15 so he should be feeling pretty good about his game heading into 2013. He hasn't cracked into that elite group that we all thought he would 10 years ago but he's as steady as they come and cashed tons of checks. This week shouldn't be any different.
Zach Johnson: When you think of accuracy off the tee and strong putting, Zach Johnson is one of the first names that pop into my tiny brain inside my huge noggin. Johnson was 14th in fairways and sixth in strokes gained-putting last year and he’s proven that his game suits this course with a victory in 2009 and T12 in 2010. The last two seasons he’s finished T57 and T54 as weather has wreaked havoc on this event. His last two seasons have seen him make the cut in 43 of 48 events including 24 of 25 last year. DING!
Ryan Moore: He closed out 2012 with the birth of his first son so he’ll probably be excited to get away and get some sleep! His lack of length off the tee won’t be much of a concern this week because his ball-striking and putting should carry the load. He’s 21st in strokes gained-putting and makes tons of birdies. He hasn’t played here since 2006 so I’m relying on his current form to take over.
Webb Simpson: This will be Simpson’s fifth attempt to conquer Waialae in the last five seasons. Last year, he admitted after the tournament that he was out of gas from the 2011 regular season and was looking forward to some time off. In 2012, Simpson took time off in July and August as his wife gave birth to their second child. Simpson should be rested and ready to go as he looks to build on finishes of T9, T77, T46 and T38 last year. Sure, he can spray it a bit off the tee that doesn’t scare me off of him. He finished 34th in GIR last season 8th in 2011. Oh, and he makes tons of birdies as well which will come in handy around here!
Brendon de Jonge: If there’s a tournament scheduled this week or any week, de Jonge will be entered. His four seasons on TOUR have seen him play 29, 32, 30 and 31 starts. He’s made the cut in 89 of those starts including a career-best 27 (of 31) last year. He hit the top 25 11 times as well as he racked up the most money on TOUR without a victory last year. de Jonge missed the cut here in his first three starts but has finished T20 in 2011 and T10 last year. His second round 62 last year was his career-low round on TOUR. He was eighth on TOUR in GIR, first in birdies and was 24th in ball-striking last year so you know he’ll have plenty of chances this week.
Carl Pettersson: I hesitated to put Pettersson on here because this is an ODD year. After MC in his maiden voyage in 2004, Pettersson has made the cut in every EVEN year tournament since. In 2006 he was T10; T25 in 2008; T5 in 2010 and T2 last year. You wanna guess what happens in the ODD years? Go ahead. In three odd year tournaments, he’s broken 70 once. Statistical anomaly? Cursed like the Brady Bunch when they went to Hawaii? His final round, double-bogey on No. 2 set him in a hole but he dug out with six closing birdies to rebound last year. I’ll stick with him as that can’t hurt his confidence and he’s coming off a career year.
Tim Clark: In his three starts here, he’s been par or better in 11 of 12 rounds, including a pair of 64s. Now that Clark is healthy again, he will factor more consistently. We all had a glimpse of the “old” Tim Clark during the summer last year as he banged out six top 25s in nine events which included a T4 at the Travelers and a solo second at the Wyndham Championship. Clark’s three finishes here are T12 (2009), T25 (2010) and T2 (2011).
Johnson Wagner/Jimmy Walker: This year’s Johnson Wagner? Could be! He’s a very solid putter whose ball-striking is a bit loose. Walker has spent time this winter working with Butch Harmon so I’m encouraged to see how that works out. Walker has played here six times and made the cut in half of those appearances. 72-68 last year saw him MC but in 2011 he finished solo fourth with all four rounds in the 60s, including 65-66 Friday and Saturday. Wagner is your defending champion who MC the three previous years before winning. Makes sense!
Horses for Courses
Based on their play over time on this course and the history of previous winners, these players deserve a thorough look this week.
Brian Gay: He’ll be teeing it up here for the 14 time in the last 15 years. He’s made 11 consecutive cuts after MC in his first two appearances. In those 11 years where he’s made the cut, Gay has finished in the top 25 six times including the last four years running. His last four years have seen Gay finish T5, T25, T13 and T6 last year. His streak would have been even better if it wasn’t for final rounds of 74 in 2007 (T54) and 75 in 2008 (T40). Gay has three career victories and fits the “past champions” profile.
Jerry Kelly: The 2002 champion has played in 15 of these so 2013 will be sweet 16. None have been sweeter than his 2002 title, his first on TOUR, but he’s had plenty of close calls over the years. He has six top 10s and four of those are top 5s. He’s only MC twice (1996, 2005) and in his last 24 rounds here, he’s been over par TWICE (not including WD in 2010). Fill up those saddlebags and giddy up!
Chad Campbell: He’s nine out of 10 at Waialae and has played in every event except the 2009 edition. His streak of T13 or better was broken up last year by MDF T71. In his 37 rounds here, he’s broken par in 20 of them. Campbell made six of his last 12 cuts of 2012 and was T3, T4 and T7 in three of them after a slooooooooooooooooooooooow start to 2013. This course should help get him started this season.
Mark Wilson: He’s playing in his sixth straight Sony Open and in that stretch Wilson has won in 2011 and was T20 in 2010 and T25 in 2008. He MC last year and in 2009. Fantasy gurus will know that this is the time of year to place your faith in Mark Wilson. His last three victories have been the Sony Open, the Humana Challenge and the Waste Management Phoenix Open. In his victory here in 2011, he didn’t make a bogey on his final 36 holes. He’ll be hoping to find that form again this week after a very quiet close to 2012.
Rory Sabbatini: When you look at his record here, you’ll wonder why he’s not in the top 10. When you look at how he finished 2012, you’ll understand why. After finishing June with T2 at the Memorial and T18 at the Travelers, Sabbatini made the cut in three of his last 12 starts (one WD). His record at Waialae is amazing so he can’t be completely dismissed this week. In six starts, Sabbatini has finished second (2001), 25th (2004), T13 (2007), 17th (2008), second (2010) and T9 last year. That’s quite impressive.
Davis Love III: The 2012 Ryder Cup captain is back to his playing ways with the weight of the golfing world off his shoulders. Hawaii is a great place to recharge the batteries and the golf game and DL3 should be excited and ready to go. He’s made 10 of 13 cuts here. In his last four years, he was MC, T5, T9 and MC last year. He has seven top 10s here in those 13 starts. Captain!
Dark Horses
I had to dig a little for these guys but they have enough game to come from off the pace and surprise this week.
Steve Marino: His 2012 was ruined by a knee issue that never could heal properly but he’s back to kick off 2013 in a place where he’s been awfully good over the last few years. If he knee is healthy (I said the same thing last year and it still holds), he’s worth a shot in deep fields because he has finishes of T4, T7, and T2 in three of the last five trips to Hawaii. Last year he MC with 74-69.
Marc Leishman: The Aussie secured his first TOUR win with a victory at the Travelers but the 10 events after that win, Leishman’s best finish was T18 in November. In three events here he’s finished T12 (2009), T20 (2010) and T27 in 2011. He fits winner profile and is playing at Kapalua.
John Rollins: He made half of his money in the first four events of 2012 so Rollins will be looking to the trade winds again to get off to a good start. In his last two appearances here he’s finished T8 (2010) and T10 last year after closing with a final round 64.
George McNeill: In five starts since 2007, McNeill has quietly finished T13, T17, T7, MC and T19 last year. His last top 25 in 2012 was at the Wells Fargo Championship in May so his form hasn’t been great but it’s impossible to argue his record here.
Vijay Singh: The 2005 champion is 15 for 15 at Waialae. He’s made 12 cuts in a row on TOUR. He’s 49 for one more month…
Graham de Laet: He finished T25 in 2010 and T29 last year. In 2012 he led the field in GIR, he was T2 in driving accuracy and T18 in putting. Three doubles on top of seven bogeys didn’t help but it’s obvious he’s close.
Excuse Me Sir, Where’s the First Tee and What’s the Course Record?
“Rookie Watch” If any of them are going to make noise, I would suggest these few.
Luke Guthrie: His first three starts on TOUR last summer saw him finish T19, T5 and T18. His fourth event was in October at the Frys.com where he MC. He played 10 events on the Web.com Tour where he made eight cuts, including a third, a second and two firsts. Oh, and he hit the top 10 in seven of those eight events. He can really putt!
Russell Henley: He also had seven top 10s including two wins on the Web.com Tour last year but in 26 events. His last four events were P1, third, P1 and T6. Excellent ball -striker.
Morgan Hoffmann: In 13 events on the Web.com Tour he made 12 cuts with seven top 10s that included a second and a third. In his last six events of 2012, his worst finish was T30; the other five were T9 or better. Another big putter.
GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge: Sony Open (Glass’ Picks)
Group 1: Dustin Johnson
Group 2: Tim Clark
Group 3: John Rollins
Group 4: Steve Marino
GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge: Sony Open (Rob’s Picks)
Group 1: Dustin Johnson
Group 2: Tim Clark
Group 3: Billy Horschel
Group 4: Richard H. Lee
GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge: HTOC (Ryan’s Picks)
Group 1: Keegan Bradley
Group 2: Charles Howell III
Group 3: Rory Sabbatini
Group 4: Richard H. Lee
Golf Channel Fantasy Challenge: Sony Open (Ned’s Picks)
Group 1: Dustin Johnson
Group 2: Charles Howell III
Group 3: Davis Love III
Group 4: Steve Marino
Ned said, “…
Ned Brown is a long-time contributor for Rotoworld Golf. He’s had documented success in Yahoo!’s game for years. Even if you’re confident in your selections for that game, give his insight a read. Now, Ned also provides us with his GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge selections as well!
Full Disclosure: I am NOT Ned! He’s smarter and better looking!
GROUP A
Charles Howell III-- He loves the Sony Open and he has three top 5 finishes in the last four starts here.
Tim Clark-- Clark played in only one event in the off season, but that was a T4 at the Nelson Mandela in South Africa. He has a solid record at the Sony with his best finish being a T2 in '11.
SUPER SUBS
Brendon de Jonge, Mark Wilson, Jonas Blixt
GROUP B
Dustin Johnson-- He looked great in Monday at the TOC, where he opened up a three-stroke lead. His record at the Sony is solid, so he will most likely be the favorite when play starts on Thursday.
Keegan Bradley-- Played in a couple events in the off-season with the highlight being a second place at the World Challenge. He looked very good on Monday at the TOC, where he was tied for fourth and I think he can improve on the T13 finish that he had at last year's Sony Open.
Webb Simpson-- Simpson played OK on Monday at the TOC and his 2-under-par total was good enough for an overnight tie for tenth place. He has made the cut in all four of his starts at the Sony, with his best result being a T9 in '09.
K.J. Choi-- I think this spot is a flip of the coin between Choi and Steve Marino. Choi gets the nod because he is a past champion at the Sony ( '08), and despite that Marino has a very good record at the Sony, I would like to see an event or two to see how Marino has rebounded back from his knee injury before I burn a Yahoo! game start.
SUPER SUBS
Matt Kuchar, Steve Marino, Carl Pettersson, Davis Love III, Zach Johnson
GROUP C
Scott Piercy-- Piercy played well in the off-season events, which included an impressive T2 the WGC-HSBC Champions. His play on Monday at the TOC was solid and he sat in an overnight ninth place.
John Rollins-- I was going with Ryan Moore in this spot, but a rough second round at the TOC had me looking for an alternative. Rollins had a rough end to last season, but he has two top 10s in his last two starts at the Sony, so I'll play the horse for the course angle.
SUPER SUBS
Ryan Moore, Brian Gay, Matt Every, Jerry Kelly, Vijay Singh
And the analysis doesn't end here. Rotoworld's Rob Bolton and I will be co-hosting a one-hour live chat WEDNESDAY at NOON p.m. ET. We will be breaking down the field at the Sony Open and answering your questions. Simply return to the golf home page to join in on the chatter.