Don’t Overlook
These guys just missed out on the premium list but should not be dismissed this week.
Dustin Johnson: He’s not playing with Gretzky this week but he’s still dating his daughter. He couldn’t make the cut last week at a tournament he’s won twice so I’m gun-shy again this week. In five starts here, he’s hit the top 10 three times. He’s won this year but he’s only been under par twice in his last seven rounds.
Matt Kuchar: He’s off to a very solid start in 2013 with finishes of T9, T5 and T16. In seven events at Riviera, he’s never hit the top 10, which is what you expect from a guy where you’ll have to draft Kuchar. Try to steal him in the next round.
K.J. Choi: In 12 events Choi has been worse than T30 exactly thrice in his career and has never missed the cut. After a miserable 2012, Choi has one top 10 in three starts in 2013 and obviously likes this track.
Kevin Stadler: His worst round in 14 this year is 71 as SOW (Son of Walrus) has finished T27, T11 and T3 the last three weeks. His last three starts at Riviera he’s finished T10, T12 and T24 last year.
Chris Kirk: He’s played four events this season and has finished T5, MC, T24 and was second last week. His history at Riviera is MC, MC but I wouldn’t have any problem playing the hot hand in deeper fields this week.
Bo Van Pelt: Van Pelt has been nothing but steady over the last couple of years and is on a streak of ten cuts made in a row. You like him this week because he’s accurate off the tee and hits tons of GIR. He’s not a bad putter either! He was T8 last year and T15 in 2010.
Scott Piercy: In four starts in 2013 he’s been T13, T15, MC and third at WMPO as he closed with 61. It’s hard for me to turn a blind eye to a guy who fired a Sunday 61 even though his best finish in three at Riviera is T45.
Jim Furyk: He’s made 11 of his last 12 cuts at Riviera and his ball-striking and putting will be his biggest assets this week. He made only two bogeys in his last 54 holes last weekend so he’s warmed up and ready to go.
Keegan Bradley: Last year, he needed to make a 15-footer to get into a playoff and he did, right after Mickelson drained a 25-footer to do the same. That’s when you knew that Bradley wasn’t going to be a flash-in-the-pan. He’s off to a quiet start in 2013 after his T4 at HTOC as he’s finished T49, MC and T24 in his last three starts. Hopefully for season-long gamers the idyllic Riviera springs his game back into life.
James Hahn: HAHN! Sure, it’s his first time here, but it’s the rookie’s first time EVERYWHERE in 2013! He’s made the cut in all five starts this season and has been in the top four twice. Until he makes a hash out of a tournament, he’s on this list.
Graeme McDowell: He’s busy being engaged and opening a new restaurant at Lake Nona so I’ll be interested to see how he starts of 2013. Too much class to omit for me.
Off the Beaten Path
Either “horse-for-course” or guys off the radar
Marc Leishman: He’s MC in his last two starts after a T9 at Sony but he’s been T15, MC, T17 in the last three years at Riviera.
Cameron Tringale: In eight rounds he’s had seven at par or better at Hogan’s Alley. He’s a SoCal kid who has made four cuts in a row and closed with 66 last week at Pebble Beach.
Retief Goosen: He’s “back”. Get it? Back surgery is now behind him and he cracked the top 10 (T9) in his third start of 2013 last week.
Kevin Na: His game is heading in the right direction after T36 in Phoenix and T22 last week at Pebble Beach. He’s back at Riviera where he’s had mixed success. Before finishing 77-78 on the weekend last year, Na was third in 2011, T10 in 2010 and T25 in 2009. He’s made six on the bounce at the Northern Trust Open.
Brendon de Jonge: Wash. Rinse. Repeat. de Jonge schedule is off to a busy start again this year. He was in the top 20 of ball-strikers in 2012; this year he’s third already. There plenty of big “name” players in the field this week but he’ll help you out in a deep draft. His history isn’t wonderful, but, like his game, is steady. He’s finished T10, T29 and T42 in his only three at Riviera.
John Merrick: He’s SoCal born and raised and still lives in Long Beach. He was T16 last week at Pebble Beach so I’m trying to catch lightning in a bottle. His ball-striking is just as good as his putting numbers are bad.
William McGirt: He’s trending in the right direction T56, T32 and T16 last week at Pebble. Excellent putter who’s been accurate off the tee and from the fairway.
Patrick Cantlay: The UCLA grad has seen this track once or twice. He’s flying high after his T9 last week. I’ve taken worse chances.
Buyer Beware
Current form plus course history or injury has chased me away this week. As sure as the sun will rise in the east, one of these guys usually contends each week…
Charles Howell III: Since his victory in 2007, CHIII has teed it up five times at Riviera and his best finish is T55 (MC twice). You should have cashed on CH III already!
Hunter Mahan: His best finishes in seven starts are T17, T24 and T31.
Jeff Overton: In four starts in 2013 he’s finished eighth, T27, T60 and T70 in his last outing of the group. In 18 rounds at Riviera, he has played only two in the 60s.
Geoff Ogilvy: Nine events, two top 25s and five MC. His best finish was T19 in 2006. He began the year T27 and backed that with three consecutive MC.
Kevin Streelman: Five events at Riviera have produced two MCs and T68, 72nd and T56 last year. Tough to stretch to that.
Northern Trust Open
Riviera Country Club
Pacific Palisades, CA
“Hogan’s Alley”
Yards: 7,349
Par: 71 (35-36)
Greens: Creeping Bentgrass and Poa Annua (5,000 square feet on average)
Rough: Kikuyugrass 2.5”
Stimpmeter: 12’
Bunkers: 60
Water Hazards: zero
Course Architect: Captain George C. Thomas (1926); Tom Fazio (2008)
Purse: $6,600,000
Winner’s Share: $1,188,000
FexExCup Points: 500 to the winner
Defending Champion: Bill Haas defeated Phil Mickelson and Keegan Bradley on the second playoff hole when he drained a 45-foot birdie for his fourth win on TOUR in his career.
Dates: February 14-17
Notes: Ahhhhhhhh, back to normal. 144 players will be cut to the top 70 and ties after two rounds. The early weather report looks absolutely perfect!
History Lessons
Len Mattiace (2002) was the last player to break his TOUR maiden at Riviera.
If you’re looking to Bill Haas this week to repeat, it’s not impossible as Corey Pavin (1994-95), Mike Weir (2003-04) and Phil Mickelson (2008-09) have completed this task in the last 19 years.
Riviera is referred to as “Hogan’s Alley” because the great Ben Hogan won the 1947 and 1948 Los Angeles Opens and the U.S. Open on this great track in an 18 month period. The term was coined by the great Jimmy Demaret.
Riviera has hosted the U.S. Open, The PGA (1983; 1995) and the U.S. Senior Open (1998).
Since 1990, only eight champions have been major champions yet they have accounted for 12 of the 22 victories.
Jack Nicklaus collected his first check on TOUR here in 1962. It was for $33.33. That’s right. No, I am not missing any zeroes or commas…
Last year, Bill Haas, Phil Mickelson and Keegan Bradley all finished on seven-under-par 277. That was the highest winning score since Craig Stadler posted 278 in 1996. The average winning score over the last ten or so years is around 13-under.
Jason Kokrak, T34, was the best rookie finisher last year.
Rank and File
This week, we have a massive field as 25 of the top 50 OWGR players are at Riviera this week. This is the best ranked field yet of 2013.
Of Course
Riviera Country Club and the Northern Trust Open is the fourth-longest running Event on TOUR. Riviera has hosted every Northern Trust open since 1973, minus two editions (1983 and 1998). The course is a lovely old dear set in the bowl of the Santa Monica Valley and has stood the test of time. Captain George C. Thomas used doglegs and strategic bunkering to make the players think their way or bomb their way over and around this behemoth.
Riviera will bring solid rough back into play for the first time since Torrey Pines. The kikuyugrass is sticky and swallows golf balls around the greens and off the fairways so play out of the rough will be popular and necessary this week.
Once on the greens, the creeping Bentgrass and Poa annua will provide another challenge altogether. The bumpy and lumpy that occurs later in the day will test even the best putters. Last year, Haas was third in the field in strokes-gained putting en route to victory; Bradley was first. Yet, putting for par all day after trying to get up-and-down will wear guys out.
Riviera is consistently ranked in the harder half of courses played on TOUR each season due to the challenging fairways and greens to hit and tough, slick putting.
Top 10, Plus One
Bubba Watson: One of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball, Watson should have an advantage this week with his length and penchant for GIR. Watson is off and running with T4 at HTOC and a closing round 64 for solo 15th in Phoenix two weeks ago. He’s been T14, T17 and T13 in six (one WD) starts.
Sergio Garcia: He’s played twice on the European Tour (T2, T17) and had some success in kicking off 2013. Known as one of the steadiest ball-strikers around, Garcia is looking to build off his final round 64 (T4) here last year.
Phil Mickelson: Back-to-back winner leads us down another dead-end alley again this week. He’s not playing in the WGC-Match Play so this is his last tournament for a while. In his last six appearances here, he’s won twice, been second twice and finished T35 and T45. There’s no point in leaving all of that out this week.
Jimmy Walker: Last year, he was T8 at Torrey Pines, T9 at Pebble Beach and T4 at Riviera. This year he was T4 at Torrey Pines and T3 at Pebble Beach. He was also T4 here in 2011. There’s no doubt that the Butch Harmon effect is working here. Next stop is a W!
Aaron Baddeley: Similar to Walker, the 2011 champion also plays well on the Pebble-Riviera circuit. Baddeley’s last three finishes at Pebble have been T12 or better and his last two here have been T11 and WIN. Oh, and he’s made every cut in 10 tries. G’day mate!
Charl Schwartzel: In his last four events he’s won, finished second, T3 and fifth. Ok. Works for me. He’d be ranked higher if he saw this quirky, classic course before this week in tournament play.
Luke Donald: He would be rated higher in this list if he would have teed it up once or twice this year and not racked up 78 and 79 in his last two outings. Donald made 16 of 17 cuts on TOUR last year and has a fantastic putter and short game along with supreme accuracy off the tee.
Ryan Moore: After getting off to a rocky start in two events in Hawaii, Moore blasted TPC Scottsdale to the tune of 22-under his last time out. He’s a sweet ball-striker and tremendous putter and that has helped him to T4 and T17 finishes the last two years here.
Bill Haas: The 2012 champion in a playoff is on a very similar arc to begin 2013 as he was last year. He struggled in Hawaii and at the Humana before lighting his fire at Torrey Pines. He won here last year because he kept the ball in play and got up and down from everywhere with a hot putter. He was T12 in 2011 so last year wasn’t too far off the cards.
Adam Scott: His last time out in 2012 he won the Australian Masters so he has that going for him, which is nice. He picks up the 2013 schedule with a start at Riviera where he has won (2005) and finished second (2006) during his six attempts. He also has a T14 and a T17 on his resume so this renowned ball-striker should be ready to go this week.
Lee Westwood: Westwood began his season with a T5 at the Omega and was T46 last week playing with his Dad at Pebble Beach. He’s another one of the great ball-strikers who should thrive where accuracy tee-to-green is necessary. This will be his first start in five years at Riviera. His best finish is T5 in 2006.
Don’t Overlook
These guys just missed out on the premium list but should not be dismissed this week.
Dustin Johnson: He’s not playing with Gretzky this week but he’s still dating his daughter. He couldn’t make the cut last week at a tournament he’s won twice so I’m gun-shy again this week. In five starts here, he’s hit the top 10 three times. He’s won this year but he’s only been under par twice in his last seven rounds.
Matt Kuchar: He’s off to a very solid start in 2013 with finishes of T9, T5 and T16. In seven events at Riviera, he’s never hit the top 10, which is what you expect from a guy where you’ll have to draft Kuchar. Try to steal him in the next round.
K.J. Choi: In 12 events Choi has been worse than T30 exactly thrice in his career and has never missed the cut. After a miserable 2012, Choi has one top 10 in three starts in 2013 and obviously likes this track.
Kevin Stadler: His worst round in 14 this year is 71 as SOW (Son of Walrus) has finished T27, T11 and T3 the last three weeks. His last three starts at Riviera he’s finished T10, T12 and T24 last year.
Chris Kirk: He’s played four events this season and has finished T5, MC, T24 and was second last week. His history at Riviera is MC, MC but I wouldn’t have any problem playing the hot hand in deeper fields this week.
Bo Van Pelt: Van Pelt has been nothing but steady over the last couple of years and is on a streak of ten cuts made in a row. You like him this week because he’s accurate off the tee and hits tons of GIR. He’s not a bad putter either! He was T8 last year and T15 in 2010.
Scott Piercy: In four starts in 2013 he’s been T13, T15, MC and third at WMPO as he closed with 61. It’s hard for me to turn a blind eye to a guy who fired a Sunday 61 even though his best finish in three at Riviera is T45.
Jim Furyk: He’s made 11 of his last 12 cuts at Riviera and his ball-striking and putting will be his biggest assets this week. He made only two bogeys in his last 54 holes last weekend so he’s warmed up and ready to go.
Keegan Bradley: Last year, he needed to make a 15-footer to get into a playoff and he did, right after Mickelson drained a 25-footer to do the same. That’s when you knew that Bradley wasn’t going to be a flash-in-the-pan. He’s off to a quiet start in 2013 after his T4 at HTOC as he’s finished T49, MC and T24 in his last three starts. Hopefully for season-long gamers the idyllic Riviera springs his game back into life.
James Hahn: HAHN! Sure, it’s his first time here, but it’s the rookie’s first time EVERYWHERE in 2013! He’s made the cut in all five starts this season and has been in the top four twice. Until he makes a hash out of a tournament, he’s on this list.
Graeme McDowell: He’s busy being engaged and opening a new restaurant at Lake Nona so I’ll be interested to see how he starts of 2013. Too much class to omit for me.
Off the Beaten Path
Either “horse-for-course” or guys off the radar
Marc Leishman: He’s MC in his last two starts after a T9 at Sony but he’s been T15, MC, T17 in the last three years at Riviera.
Cameron Tringale: In eight rounds he’s had seven at par or better at Hogan’s Alley. He’s a SoCal kid who has made four cuts in a row and closed with 66 last week at Pebble Beach.
Retief Goosen: He’s “back”. Get it? Back surgery is now behind him and he cracked the top 10 (T9) in his third start of 2013 last week.
Kevin Na: His game is heading in the right direction after T36 in Phoenix and T22 last week at Pebble Beach. He’s back at Riviera where he’s had mixed success. Before finishing 77-78 on the weekend last year, Na was third in 2011, T10 in 2010 and T25 in 2009. He’s made six on the bounce at the Northern Trust Open.
Brendon de Jonge: Wash. Rinse. Repeat. de Jonge schedule is off to a busy start again this year. He was in the top 20 of ball-strikers in 2012; this year he’s third already. There plenty of big “name” players in the field this week but he’ll help you out in a deep draft. His history isn’t wonderful, but, like his game, is steady. He’s finished T10, T29 and T42 in his only three at Riviera.
John Merrick: He’s SoCal born and raised and still lives in Long Beach. He was T16 last week at Pebble Beach so I’m trying to catch lightning in a bottle. His ball-striking is just as good as his putting numbers are bad.
William McGirt: He’s trending in the right direction T56, T32 and T16 last week at Pebble. Excellent putter who’s been accurate off the tee and from the fairway.
Patrick Cantlay: The UCLA grad has seen this track once or twice. He’s flying high after his T9 last week. I’ve taken worse chances.
Buyer Beware
Current form plus course history or injury has chased me away this week. As sure as the sun will rise in the east, one of these guys usually contends each week…
Charles Howell III: Since his victory in 2007, CHIII has teed it up five times at Riviera and his best finish is T55 (MC twice). You should have cashed on CH III already!
Hunter Mahan: His best finishes in seven starts are T17, T24 and T31.
Jeff Overton: In four starts in 2013 he’s finished eighth, T27, T60 and T70 in his last outing of the group. In 18 rounds at Riviera, he has played only two in the 60s.
Geoff Ogilvy: Nine events, two top 25s and five MC. His best finish was T19 in 2006. He began the year T27 and backed that with three consecutive MC.
Kevin Streelman: Five events at Riviera have produced two MCs and T68, 72nd and T56 last year. Tough to stretch to that.
Rookie of the Week Last Week
Sony: Russell Henley WIN
Humana: David Lingmerth P2
Farmers: Brad Fritsch T9
WMPO: James Hahn T16
AT&T: James Hahn T3
One-and-Done
SEASON TOTAL: $1,287,600
HTOC: Steve Stricker (2nd; $665,000)
Sony: Charles Howell III (T3; $324,800)
Humana: Tim Clark (MC)
Farmers: Rickie Fowler (T6; $204,350)
WMPO: Jason Dufner (MC)
AT&T Pebble: Hunter Mahan (T16; 94,250)
Northern Trust: Bill Haas
GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge
Northern Trust Open
Mike Glasscott (Rank: 7,221; $3,966,134)
Group 1: Bubba Watson
Group 2: Jimmy Walker
Group 3: J.B. Holmes
Group 4: Patrick Cantlay
Ryan O’Sullivan (Rank: 19,809; $2,618,173)
Group 1: Keegan Bradley
Group 2: Jimmy Walker
Group 3: J.B. Holmes
Group 4: Lucas Glover
Ned Brown (Rank: 1,570; 5,153,970)
Group 1: Luke Donald
Group 2: Jimmy Walker
Group 3: J.B. Holmes
Group 4: Fred Couples
Rob Bolton (Rank: 20,900; 2,514,692)
Group 1: Adam Scott
Group 2: Ryan Moore
Group 3: J.B. Holmes
Group 4: Kevin Chappell
Ned said, “…
Ned Brown is a long-time contributor for Rotoworld Golf. He’s had documented success in Yahoo!’s game for years. Even if you’re confident in your selections for that game, give his insight a read. Ned also provides us with his GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge selections as well!
GROUP A
Bill Haas-- He is the defending champion here and he has played well this year with a T9 at the Farmers and a T6 at the WMPO.
Phil Mickelson-- He looked great a couple of weeks ago with a dominate win at the WMPO, but there was no momentum last week at the AT&T where he tied for 60th place. I'm going with him based on his recent record at Riviera of two wins ( '08,'09) and two second places ('07. last year) in his last six starts.
SUPER SUBS
Sergio Garcia, Charles Howell III, Brendon de Jonge
GROUP B
Jimmy Walker-- Walker has been hot over the last three weeks, with a T4 at the Farmers and a T3 last week at the AT&T. An added bonus is that he has tied for fourth place in the last two editions of the NTO.
Aaron Baddeley- He has played well recently with a T6 at the Farmers and a T12 last week at the AT&T. His recent record at the NTO is strong with a win in '11 and a T11 last year.
Luke Donald-- The NTO marks the starts of Donald's season, but he played well in the off-season events which included a championship at the Dunlap Phoenix. He hasn't done well in his last two starts at the NTO, but before that he had a nice stretch of a T3 in '08, a T6 in '09 and a second place in '10.
J.B. Holmes-- A true horse for the course with a T7 in '08, a T6 in '09, a T3 in '10 and a T8 last year.
SUPER SUBS
Dustin Johnson, Bo Van Pelt, Jim Furyk, Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson
GROUP C
Adam Scott—The NTO will be the opening event of the season for Scott. He played well in the off-season events, with the highlight being a championship at the Talisker Masters. He won a championship here in '05 and he has a pair of T17s ( T14'in '08 and T17 last year) in his last three starts here.
Charl Schwartzel-- He has a streak going of top 5s in his last six worldwide starts and I thought he played great last week at the Joburg Open where he finished in second place.
SUPER SUBS
Lee Westwood, Ryan Moore, Kevin Stadler, Retief Goosen
Coming Wednesday
And the analysis doesn't end here. Rotoworld's Rob Bolton and I will be co-hosting a one-hour live chat WEDNESDAY at NOON ET. We will be breaking down the field at the Northern Trust Open and answering your questions. Simply return to the golf home page to join in on the chatter.