World Golf Championship-Cadillac Classic
TPC Blue Monster at Trump Doral
Doral, FL
TPC Blue Monster
Yards: 7,334 per the scorecard
Par: 72 (36-36)
Greens: Bermudagrass (6,600 square feet on average)
Rough: Bermudagrass with perennial ryegrass at 3”
Stimpmeter: 11.8’
Bunkers: 110
Water Hazards: 11
Course Architect: Dick Wilson & Robert von Haggins (1961); Jim McLean (2000); PGA TOUR/Doral (2006)
Purse: $8,750,000
Winner’s Share: $1,500,000
FexExCup Points: 550 to the winner
Defending Champion: Justin Rose won his first WGC title by catching and passing 54-hole leader Bubba Watson by one shot.
Dates: March 6-9
Notes: There is no cut as the field of 65, including the top 50 in the OWGR, will play four rounds of stroke play.
History Lessons
The Blue Monster, now called the TPC Blue Monster, was refurbished in 2006 to bring in the World Golf Championships beginning in 2007.
Please remember, any data on this event BEFORE 2007 took place at other courses around the world. This event has been played at Doral since 2007 so that’s what I’m looking at for horses-for-courses. Past performances at the Ford Championships from the TOUR will be factored in this week.
Since moving to Doral in 2007, no player has defended his championship.
The last six winners have rotated between American and international players.
Tiger Woods (2007) won at 10-under-par with the highest winning score.
Geoff Ogilvy (2008) won at 17-under as the weather cooperated. Ogilvy is in this week’s field after his solo second last week at The Honda Classic.
Phil Mickelson (2009) won at 19-under and has set the lowest mark in this event.
Ernie Els (2010) fired 18-under and won by four shots, which is the largest margin by any winner since 2007.
Nick Watney (2011) posted 16-under to claim his first WGC title.
Justin Rose (2012) also posted 16-under in his victory last year.
This year should be an American, non-major winner, right?
The average winning score is 16 under par and that has been the winning score the last two years.
Doral has been the longest standing tournament host site since its inception in 1962. The final Ford Championship at Doral took place in 2006 before this event turned into a WGC Championship.
Rank and File
By my count, as of Monday afternoon, 49 of the top 50 OWGR players are in the field this week. Only Brandt Snedeker (rib injury) is not playing this week.
All six former champions are in the field this week as well.
Of Course
The TPC Blue Monster rated the 38th-easiest course of the 49 played in 203 on TOUR. Doral is known for its water hazards, tight driving holes and quick greens but has shown over the last six years that players must post a number to win. With four par-fives, it’s no wonder that the big hitters have thrived on this 7,334 yard par-72 course. Where professionals here the word “resort” they know they are going to have to go low to win which is the complete opposite of last week’s wind-swept event at The Honda Classic.
With the best players in the world lining up this week, there is absolutely no point of heading off the reservation to find players. I’ll be looking at players will successes on Bermudagrass greens and can take advantage of par-fives. As we have seen, there have been no “surprise” winners in this event and looking over the top 20 from the last few years, there are not, if any, guys from “off the beaten path” there. That being said, Michael Thompson whipped a better than average field last week at The Honda Classic after coming off rounds of 78-80 at Riviera. This field should make that problem obsolete this week.
Here’s the good news: everyone cashes a check this week because there is no cut so remember that when putting together your one-and-done picks.
Top 10, Plus One
Justin Rose: Last year’s champion is looking the part again this year as he is rounding into form coming off last week’s T4 at The Honda Classic. His ball-striking was “off” by his standards yet he found a way to climb into the top five. From tee to green there aren’t many better in the business and with a premium on hitting fairways and greens this week, he should flourish again.
Charl Schwartzel: The only disappointing week for Schwartzel in the last five months was his first round KO at the WGC-Match Play. Well, actually was his worst stroke-play finish was last week, T9. Yes, T9. He was second here in 2010, T24 in 2011 and T4 last year.
Matt Kuchar: The WGC-Match Play champ has shown he has no regard for who’s in the field any time he tees it up. In the last year he’s won THE PLAYERS and a WGC event so don’t be worried that you might be taking him too high in your games. He’s played this event three times and has finished T3 in 2010, fifth in 2011 and T8 last year. Sold.
Tiger Woods: I can’t throw him out based on his six wins on this track. He was playing quite decently here last year before having his Achilles act up on him, forcing his WD. Since that WD, he’s gone on to win three times on tracks he’s torn up in the past so he SHOULD factor this week. There are plenty of problems off the tee, yes, but he has 11 top 10s in 12 starts. That’s ridiculous.
Jason Day: He has quietly cashed in the top 10 in three of his first four events including third at WGC-Match Play last month. He has no problem grinding it out as his superb short-game can carry him through tough spells during rounds. It looks like he’s finally settled down in the States and his game is reflecting that.
Luke Donald: With the way he drives the golf ball and the way he commands his short game, it’s no wonder why Donald will make this list in every tournament he enters. He enters his 10th event at this course and his worst finish is T26 three times. Five other times he was T11 or better including T6 the last two events here.
Keegan Bradley: I thought he might break through last week in his backyard but his game is getting closer and closer. He’s over the “cheater” comments and back to drilling greens and holing putts. Remember, he was right in the thick of it last year before a Sunday back-nine 41 sunk his chances. He’ll be in the thick of it again this year.
Bubba Watson: Speaking of being right in it, Watson carried the 54-hole lead into Sunday before a front-nine 39 gave Justin Rose the lead he wouldn’t relinquish. Watson has battled illness to start 2013 but he’s feeling stronger each tournament. Should I be worried that the new “Golf Boyz” video is out? NO CHANCE!
Hunter Mahan: Hey, look! Another Golf Boy! Mahan has one round over par in his last 12 and finished second in the WGC-Match Play his last time out. He’d be ranked higher on this list but his form on this course only registers one top 10 in five tries. His second best finish is T24. He’s hot right now so I’m still bullish regardless of the history.
Steve Stricker: Ok, he’s played twice, I know, but in those two events he’s second and T5. He proved to me at Match Play that the layoff was more helpful than hurtful and once you look at his record at Doral, it’s impossible to leave him off. Here’s his run since 2007: T35, T6, T13, T16, T18 and T8 last year. There are worse chances to take this week by far.
Lee Westwood: The “Plus One” this week, Westwood was again close to cashing the top prize but couldn’t catch Luke Guthrie or Michael Thompson last week at Honda so you know he’s getting close to putting all four rounds together. His recent history here is not encouraging but he’s seen this course plenty of times and his improved short game, combined with his sweet ball-striking should make him a factor this week.
What’s up with Rory?
As we did with Tiger Woods last year, McIlroy will now have a section devoted him weekly until he breaks out of his slump. It worked for Woods last year so don’t laugh.
McIlroy is back this week and this will be his final tournament before he has his wisdom teeth pulled. He hasn’t broken par in three events, nor has he made the cut. He poses a huge question in weekly games: To pick or not to pick. The upside? He has enough talent to break out at any second. The downside? He showed last week that he might become disinterested when things don’t go his way. I suggested to a reader last week that was trying to figure out whether to take him or Graeme McDowell on the Yahoo! game that he takes a wait-and-see approach because there was nothing in those first events that said to “waste” a start on him. I suggest using those 10 events when he’s shown some course form. I stand by that again this week.
World Golf Championship-Cadillac Classic
TPC Blue Monster at Trump Doral
Doral, FL
TPC Blue Monster
Yards: 7,334 per the scorecard
Par: 72 (36-36)
Greens: Bermudagrass (6,600 square feet on average)
Rough: Bermudagrass with perennial ryegrass at 3”
Stimpmeter: 11.8’
Bunkers: 110
Water Hazards: 11
Course Architect: Dick Wilson & Robert von Haggins (1961); Jim McLean (2000); PGA TOUR/Doral (2006)
Purse: $8,750,000
Winner’s Share: $1,500,000
FexExCup Points: 550 to the winner
Defending Champion: Justin Rose won his first WGC title by catching and passing 54-hole leader Bubba Watson by one shot.
Dates: March 6-9
Notes: There is no cut as the field of 65, including the top 50 in the OWGR, will play four rounds of stroke play.
History Lessons
The Blue Monster, now called the TPC Blue Monster, was refurbished in 2006 to bring in the World Golf Championships beginning in 2007.
Please remember, any data on this event BEFORE 2007 took place at other courses around the world. This event has been played at Doral since 2007 so that’s what I’m looking at for horses-for-courses. Past performances at the Ford Championships from the TOUR will be factored in this week.
Since moving to Doral in 2007, no player has defended his championship.
The last six winners have rotated between American and international players.
Tiger Woods (2007) won at 10-under-par with the highest winning score.
Geoff Ogilvy (2008) won at 17-under as the weather cooperated. Ogilvy is in this week’s field after his solo second last week at The Honda Classic.
Phil Mickelson (2009) won at 19-under and has set the lowest mark in this event.
Ernie Els (2010) fired 18-under and won by four shots, which is the largest margin by any winner since 2007.
Nick Watney (2011) posted 16-under to claim his first WGC title.
Justin Rose (2012) also posted 16-under in his victory last year.
This year should be an American, non-major winner, right?
The average winning score is 16 under par and that has been the winning score the last two years.
Doral has been the longest standing tournament host site since its inception in 1962. The final Ford Championship at Doral took place in 2006 before this event turned into a WGC Championship.
Rank and File
By my count, as of Monday afternoon, 49 of the top 50 OWGR players are in the field this week. Only Brandt Snedeker (rib injury) is not playing this week.
All six former champions are in the field this week as well.
Of Course
The TPC Blue Monster rated the 38th-easiest course of the 49 played in 203 on TOUR. Doral is known for its water hazards, tight driving holes and quick greens but has shown over the last six years that players must post a number to win. With four par-fives, it’s no wonder that the big hitters have thrived on this 7,334 yard par-72 course. Where professionals here the word “resort” they know they are going to have to go low to win which is the complete opposite of last week’s wind-swept event at The Honda Classic.
With the best players in the world lining up this week, there is absolutely no point of heading off the reservation to find players. I’ll be looking at players will successes on Bermudagrass greens and can take advantage of par-fives. As we have seen, there have been no “surprise” winners in this event and looking over the top 20 from the last few years, there are not, if any, guys from “off the beaten path” there. That being said, Michael Thompson whipped a better than average field last week at The Honda Classic after coming off rounds of 78-80 at Riviera. This field should make that problem obsolete this week.
Here’s the good news: everyone cashes a check this week because there is no cut so remember that when putting together your one-and-done picks.
Top 10, Plus One
Justin Rose: Last year’s champion is looking the part again this year as he is rounding into form coming off last week’s T4 at The Honda Classic. His ball-striking was “off” by his standards yet he found a way to climb into the top five. From tee to green there aren’t many better in the business and with a premium on hitting fairways and greens this week, he should flourish again.
Charl Schwartzel: The only disappointing week for Schwartzel in the last five months was his first round KO at the WGC-Match Play. Well, actually was his worst stroke-play finish was last week, T9. Yes, T9. He was second here in 2010, T24 in 2011 and T4 last year.
Matt Kuchar: The WGC-Match Play champ has shown he has no regard for who’s in the field any time he tees it up. In the last year he’s won THE PLAYERS and a WGC event so don’t be worried that you might be taking him too high in your games. He’s played this event three times and has finished T3 in 2010, fifth in 2011 and T8 last year. Sold.
Tiger Woods: I can’t throw him out based on his six wins on this track. He was playing quite decently here last year before having his Achilles act up on him, forcing his WD. Since that WD, he’s gone on to win three times on tracks he’s torn up in the past so he SHOULD factor this week. There are plenty of problems off the tee, yes, but he has 11 top 10s in 12 starts. That’s ridiculous.
Jason Day: He has quietly cashed in the top 10 in three of his first four events including third at WGC-Match Play last month. He has no problem grinding it out as his superb short-game can carry him through tough spells during rounds. It looks like he’s finally settled down in the States and his game is reflecting that.
Luke Donald: With the way he drives the golf ball and the way he commands his short game, it’s no wonder why Donald will make this list in every tournament he enters. He enters his 10th event at this course and his worst finish is T26 three times. Five other times he was T11 or better including T6 the last two events here.
Keegan Bradley: I thought he might break through last week in his backyard but his game is getting closer and closer. He’s over the “cheater” comments and back to drilling greens and holing putts. Remember, he was right in the thick of it last year before a Sunday back-nine 41 sunk his chances. He’ll be in the thick of it again this year.
Bubba Watson: Speaking of being right in it, Watson carried the 54-hole lead into Sunday before a front-nine 39 gave Justin Rose the lead he wouldn’t relinquish. Watson has battled illness to start 2013 but he’s feeling stronger each tournament. Should I be worried that the new “Golf Boyz” video is out? NO CHANCE!
Hunter Mahan: Hey, look! Another Golf Boy! Mahan has one round over par in his last 12 and finished second in the WGC-Match Play his last time out. He’d be ranked higher on this list but his form on this course only registers one top 10 in five tries. His second best finish is T24. He’s hot right now so I’m still bullish regardless of the history.
Steve Stricker: Ok, he’s played twice, I know, but in those two events he’s second and T5. He proved to me at Match Play that the layoff was more helpful than hurtful and once you look at his record at Doral, it’s impossible to leave him off. Here’s his run since 2007: T35, T6, T13, T16, T18 and T8 last year. There are worse chances to take this week by far.
Lee Westwood: The “Plus One” this week, Westwood was again close to cashing the top prize but couldn’t catch Luke Guthrie or Michael Thompson last week at Honda so you know he’s getting close to putting all four rounds together. His recent history here is not encouraging but he’s seen this course plenty of times and his improved short game, combined with his sweet ball-striking should make him a factor this week.
What’s up with Rory?
As we did with Tiger Woods last year, McIlroy will now have a section devoted him weekly until he breaks out of his slump. It worked for Woods last year so don’t laugh.
McIlroy is back this week and this will be his final tournament before he has his wisdom teeth pulled. He hasn’t broken par in three events, nor has he made the cut. He poses a huge question in weekly games: To pick or not to pick. The upside? He has enough talent to break out at any second. The downside? He showed last week that he might become disinterested when things don’t go his way. I suggested to a reader last week that was trying to figure out whether to take him or Graeme McDowell on the Yahoo! game that he takes a wait-and-see approach because there was nothing in those first events that said to “waste” a start on him. I suggest using those 10 events when he’s shown some course form. I stand by that again this week.
Don’t Overlook
These guys just missed out on the premium list but should not be dismissed this week.
Adam Scott: After admitting he’s not a big fan of the Ritz-Carlton Dove Mountain course, it’s no surprise that he went out, again, in the first round of Match Play. The good news for Scott is he heads to Doral where he’s been T6 in 2011 and T13 last year and had only one round above par. This will be his 12th appearance at Doral so he should be comfortable this week.
Robert Garrigus: Sure, it’s his first time at Doral but he’s No. 1 in the all-around category and seems to birdie everything in sight. He was eliminated by eventual champion Matt Kuchar in Match Play and his worse round this year is 72. All aboard!
Rickie Fowler: His ball-striking and putting help keep him around the top of most leaderboards and he showed last year at Quail Hollow that he can win in a big field. He was eighth here in 2011 before finishing T45 last year. He was in touching distance of the trophy entering Sunday last week before a 74 knocked him out of the top 10.
Ian Poulter: He has only one top 10 here in nine starts but I believe that Poulter and his game are in a happy place after taking six weeks off after HTOC. His history on this course held me back this week.
Graeme McDowell: After getting off to a rough start, 75, last year, G-Mac rallied to fire 12-under to close out the final three days. That was the fourth year in a row that G-Mac posted a round of 74 or better. Back-to-back top 10s in his last two events are encouraging.
Webb Simpson: After missing the cut in Phoenix, Simpson has finished T26, T6 and T5 in his last appearance at Match Play. He hasn’t fired a round above 72 this season so he’s not far away. He finished T35 in his only appearance here last year as he opened with 75 and closed with 77.
Scott Piercy: This might be a step-up in class for Piercy but the way he fires in birdies he just might have a chance this week. He’s currently fifth in birdie-or-better conversion percentage and has hit the top 15 in four of six events played this year.
Off the Beaten Path
Either “horse-for-course” or guys off the radar
Francesco Molinari: In his only three starts here he’s finished T14, T3 and T13 last year to solidify his love for Doral. That’s horse-for-course!
Thorbjorn Olesen: Young and fearless. I prefer that over old and cagey. High risk can turn into high reward but not usually at these events.
Russell Henley: The field didn’t frighten him at Match Play or The Honda Classic.
John Senden: As Rob Bolton pointed out via Twitter, the renowned ball-striker has not three-putted in over 170 holes. His last two times here he’s finished T11 in 2010 and T6 last year.
Jim Furyk: His last two trips here have been underwhelming but we’ve seen him play well here before. This is his 12th trip around Doral.
Buyer Beware
Current form plus course history or injury has chased me away this week. As sure as the sun will rise in the east, one of these guys usually contends each week…
Sergio Garcia: In his first nine events here, he finished in the top 10 six times. His last three trips his best finish is T31.
Jason Dufner: His best finish is T18 in the limited-field HTOC. He’s T29 and T18 in two starts here.
Phil Mickelson: He has one top 10 in 10 starts and that’s a victory in 2009. I don’t like to play him the first event back from a layoff and I’m not going to this week either.
Louis Oosthuizen: Hit the ball all over the place at The Honda Classic and has no top 10s in six events here as his best finish is T20.
Dustin Johnson: Good news? 66 to open at The Honda. Bad news? The 71-74-75 finish. Sure, he could pop one at any time and he’s working with Claude Harmon but I’ll look elsewhere.
Rookie of the Week Last Week
I keep an eye on the youngin’s each week to see who is making the most noise.
Sony: Russell Henley WIN
Humana: David Lingmerth P2
Farmers: Brad Fritsch T9
WMPO: James Hahn T16
AT&T: James Hahn T3
NTO: Luke Guthrie T21
WGC-Match Play: Russell Henley 2nd round
Honda: Luke Guthrie 3rd
Puerto Rico Open
Trump International Golf Club-Puerto Rico
Rio Grande, Puerto Rico
Trump International Golf Club-Puerto Rico
Yards: 7,506 per the scorecard
Par: 72 (36-36)
Greens: Sea Dwarf Paspalum
Fairways: Salam Paspalum
Stimpmeter: 11’
Bunkers: 62
Water Hazards: 18
Course Architect: Tom Kite (2004)
Purse: $3,500,000
Winner’s Share: $630,000
FexExCup Points: 300 to the winner
Defending Champion: American George McNeill birdied the final three holes to defeat young Japanese player Ryo Ishikawa by one shot for his second TOUR victory.
Dates: March 6-9
Top 10, Plus One
Henrik Stenson: Class of the field.
Graham DeLaet: Riding the hot, Canadian hand coming off a solid week at The Honda. He’s played twice here at was T9 last year and T24 in 2010.
Jeff Overton: Is this the week he finally breaks through? He’s been eighth, T15 and T14 in his last three events here so I would expect him to contend.
Josh Teater: TEATER HEATER was married after his T6 at Riviera so it’ll be interesting to see how he gets back on the heater with his new wife by his side.
Kevin Stadler: He’s five-for-five with four, top 18s.
Bryce Molder: Putt it! He’s posted a T13 and T7 in previous trips to Puerto Rico.
John Rollins: No course history but he’s kicked off 2013 five-for-five and four of those are T24 or better.
George McNeill: He’s won and been fifth the last two years. Omit at your own risk. He hasn’t finished higher than T28 this season but you shouldn’t worry.
Boo Weekley: If he can get anything going on the weekend he should have a chance to be right in the thick of it. In eight weekend rounds this season, he’s broken 70 once.
Luke Guthrie: He’ll no question learn from his experience at The Honda Classic so I’d look for him to jump right back into action this week.
Patrick Cantlay: After winning by four shots in Colombia he showed that his T9 at Pebble Beach was a sign of things to come. He’d be higher this week but who wins back-to-back on two different tours on two different weeks.
Sleepers
Peter Uihlein: He’s T18, T19, T22 and fourth last week in his last four starts on the European Tour.
Brian Stuard: He’s five-for-five to start 2013 and nothing worse than T39.
Matt Jones: All four of his finishes are T30 or better including his T18 last weekend with the low round on Sunday (68). He was T5 last year.
Nicholas Thompson: He’s hit the top 25 in three of his five starts in 2013.
One-and-Done
SEASON TOTAL: $1,832,800
HTOC: Steve Stricker (2nd; $665,000)
Sony: Charles Howell III (T3; $324,800)
Humana: Tim Clark (MC)
Farmers: Rickie Fowler (T6; $204,350)
WMPO: Jason Dufner (MC)
AT&T Pebble: Hunter Mahan (T16; $94,250)
Northern Trust: Bill Haas (T3; $343,200)
WGC-Match Play: Charl Schwartzel (T33; $46,000)
Honda: Lee Westwood (T9; $156,000)
WGC-Cadillac Championship: Matt Kuchar
GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge
WGC-Cadillac Championship
Mike Glasscott (Rank: 8,841; $4,720,724)
Player 1: Matt Kuchar
Player 2: Charl Schwartzel
Player 3: Jason Day
Player 4: John Senden
Ryan O’Sullivan (Rank: 11,828; $4,347,090)
Player 1: Matt Kuchar
Player 2: Charl Schwartzel
Player 3: Robert Garrigus
Player 4: Padraig Harrington
Ned Brown (Rank: 1,669; $6,151,550)
Player 1: Matt Kuchar
Player 2: Charl Schwartzel
Player 3: Rickie Fowler
Player 4: Padraig Harrington
Rob Bolton (Rank: 21,024; $3,340,184)
Player 1: Tiger Woods
Player 2: Charl Schwartzel
Player 3: Jason Day
Player 4: John Senden
Puerto Rico Open
Glass
Player 1: Henrik Stenson
Player 2: George McNeill
Player 3: Matt Jones
Player 4: Jordan Spieth
Ryan
Player 1: Graham DeLaet
Player 2: George McNeill
Player 3: Matt Jones
Player 4: Vaughn Taylor
Ned
Player 1: Henrik Stenson
Player 2: Patrick Cantlay
Player 3: Matt Jones
Player 4: Jordan Spieth
Rob
Player 1: Kevin Stadler
Player 2: Bryce Molder
Player 3: Matt Jones
Player 4: Michael Bradley
Ned said, “…
Ned Brown is a long-time contributor for Rotoworld Golf. He’s had documented success in Yahoo!’s game for years. Even if you’re confident in your selections for that game, give his insight a read. Ned also provides us with his GolfChannel.com Fantasy Challenge selections as well!
“Pure Spin”
Points last week: 158
Points this year: 1372
Overall Ranking: 539
GROUP A
Tiger Woods-- Woods had an off week at PGA National, but here at Doral he is a top ten machine. I can't see how you can fade him this week.
Bubba Watson-- Watson had his off week at the NTO, but otherwise he has well this season. He led for most of last year's edition of the the WGC-Cadillac until a final round of 74 left him in second place.
SUPER SUBS
Graeme McDowell, Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia
GROUP B
Justin Rose-- He is the defending champion at Doral and he looked pretty good last week at The Honda where he tied for fourth place.
Matt Kuchar—He is coming off a win in the WGC-Accenture March Play and his record at this event is very good with a T3 in '10, a T5 in '11 and a T8 last year.
Luke Donald--He has played a light schedule this season, but he has played well and his recent record at Doral in solid with a pair of T6s in the last two years.
Steve Stricker-- Another player that has played a very light schedule, but he has been solid with a second place at the TOC and a T5 at the Match Play.
SUPER SUBS
Hunter Mahan, Keegan Bradley, Nick Watney, Fredrik Jacobson
GROUP C
Charl Schwartzel—He has been so hot this year that his T9 finish last week at The Honda was a bit of a disappointment. He has a strong recent history at Doral of a second place in '10 and a T4 last year.
Adam Scott—He got bounced out the first round of the Match Play, but before that he played well in the off-season events and he looked good at the NTO where finished tied for tenth place. His recent history at Doral is solid, with a T9 in '08, a T6 in '11 and a T13 last year.
SUPER SUBS
Rickie Fowler, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter
Coming Wednesday
And the analysis doesn't end here. Rotoworld's Rob Bolton and I will be co-hosting a one-hour live chat WEDNESDAY at NOON ET. We will be breaking down the field at the WGC-Cadillac Championship AND the Puerto Rico Open and answering your questions. Simply return to the golf home page to join in on the chatter.