These guys just missed out above
Louis Oosthuizen: He’s like the South African Phil Mickelson, all-or-nothing! Louis, you’re too young for that, lad! He was knocked out in the second round of WGC-Match Play and then MC at The Honda. He was T33 at WGC-Cadillac and MC at Tampa. He was T10 at SHO and MC at the Masters. Last week, he played decently and was T19 at THE PLAYERS. Wait, that’s not even fair to the “all” part of “all-or-nothing”. One top 10 and three MC is a bit scary for a player of his caliber. There’s too much talent here to dismiss but I’m not hitching my wagon up just yet, not after three doubles and a triple here last year in a MC.
Dustin Johnson: He has enough talent where he can absolutely win each week he tees it up. He has now proven to us that he can also WD at the drop of a hat. At TPC Four Seasons he’s shown that this long, challenging course is right up his alley as he’s finished T20, T7 and T4 in his last three starts here. But, in fantasy golf, the biggest surety is eliminating guys who aren’t sure bets. If he’s in your line up, you’ll need ample back up, no pun intended…As I typed this, I received an email from Rob Bolton saying that he has WD on Tuesday afternoon. He owes me 100 words…
Jeff Overton: In five events since 2008 he has found himself in the top 10 twice at TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas. He’s also found himself in the top 10 twice in 2013. He’s been on decent run of form lately and is known to play hot in bunches. He had it to eight-under last Sunday at THE PLAYERS before a double on No. 4 killed his momentum so he’s close!
Jordan Spieth: As an amateur, he played this event twice and finished T32 in 2011 and T16 in 2010. He’s been under par in five of his eight rounds so this isn’t a long-shot selection this week. He’s already hit the top 10 three times and has his special membership for 2013 so he can just let it rip the rest of the season. He could be the next Els, Day, Bradley-type to win this.
Robert Garrigus: After missing the cut in his first start here, Garrigus has rattled off finishes of T16, T26, T20 and T9 last year. His recent form has been spotty but his length and GIR penchant should overcome his putting fallacies this week, especially on a course he loves. Course form here trumps.
Brian Gay: With finishes of T7, T2 and T14 in the last five years here, Gay is another player who can thrive this week. He’ll hit every fairway and make most putts he looks at and that formula has proven to be successful around here. He’s missed three of his last eight cuts and hasn’t finished better than T35 in those eight starts so I have found this week’s winner, obviously.
Pat Perez: He had a nice run of seven straight starts broken up with a MC last week at THE PLAYERS but that’s hardly going to dissuade me from taking a look this week. He’s hit the weekend in his last two outings here and was T9 last year. In eight rounds here he’s found a trio of 66s and a 67 and has five of eight rounds below par.
J.J. Henry: Another Texas residence with success here, Henry has made all five cuts since 2008 and was T3 here last week. He had a chance to win on Sunday last year, including an ace on No. 5, but his three-putt on No. 17 kept him from a playoff and the winner’s circle. He’s made 10 of 11 cuts here in his career and is a solid ball-striker. His recent form moves him down the list here.
John Rollins: Sometimes you have to stretch in a light field and this pick would qualify that. In his last six starts on TOUR he’s been T22 or better in three and MC in the other three. With finishes of T6 and T24 last year in his last two, I’ll go with T22 or better this week. He’s in the top 30 in ball-striking on TOUR.
Graham DeLaet: He’s second on TOUR in ball-striking and 20th in scrambling so there are worse choices you could make this week. In 10 weekends this year he’s hit the top 25 five times.
Off the Beaten Path
Either “horse-for-course” or guys off the radar
Henrik Norlander: He’s hit the weekend in five straight including T15 and T16 in his last two. He’s ninth on TOUR in ball-striking and can take it deep as well. Hot golf is hot golf.
Jeff Maggert: Speaking of hot golf, this Texan was two holes away from a playoff at THE PLAYERS last week before doing the backstroke on No. 17. He’s fourth on TOUR in driving accuracy and that probably explains why he hits 68% GIR, good for 34th. The putter is his hindrance but the more greens he hits, the more birdies and pars he’ll have a chance at making. #Math. He was T8 here in 2009, his only weekend in five tries.
James Driscoll: He’s now put together back-to-back solid weeks on TOUR and his final three rounds at Sawgrass were 68-70-71 so he’s found something these last two weeks. He was T19 here last year and T8 in 2011 so I’m not stretching that much!
Harris English: It will be his first time around these parts but I’ll never forget his famous quote from last year: “I love playing tree-lined courses.” A solid putter and ball-striker, this sophomore has finished T6 (Zurich) and T33 (PLAYERS) in his last two starts and seven of those eight rounds have been under par.
Rod Pampling: With a T8 and T23 here in his five starts, the Aussie, and Dallas resident, should be comfortable taking a shot this week. He was six-under at Quail Hollow before a 74-78 weekend dropped him to T43.
Luke List: The rookie has played under par in seven of his last eight rounds resulting in 31st at Zurich and T16 at Quail Hollow. He hits it further than anyone on TOUR and if he kept his ball in play enough at Quail, he’ll be all right around here. Flier.
Tim Herron: Sometimes you have to ride the wave and I’ll take a look after Herron’s excellent 68 on Sunday at THE PLAYERS that moved him into T16. Sometimes these fine-tuned machines just need a bump in the right direction to fire. This will be his 16th event at the HPBNC.
D.H. Lee: With finishes of T16 and T8 in his last two starts, I can live with taking a chance on that form. He’s a ball-striker that can sneak under the radar this week as he’s riding a three event streak of cuts made.
Take It Deep
Long shots. Oh, you mean other guys besides the bottom five on the list above? Righto.
Matt Every: Four cuts on the bounce including T26 last week yet a first-timer here.
Blayne Barber: His last time out he won a NGA Tour event and received a sponsor’s exemption this week. He’s made both cuts (NTO & PRO) in the events he’s played in 2013. You’ll remember that he called a one-shot penalty on himself in Q-School but realized the next morning that it should have been a two-shot penalty. He DQ’d himself from the tournament and killed any chance of him getting his card for 2013. #Karma.
Padraig Harrington: Sure, why not! He was T15 last year so he looks great on paper. He makes Mickelson look stable.
Stuart Appleby: Another grizzled veteran who won’t mind if the blowers are on this weekend, Appleby has quietly made four cuts in a row. Sadly, that’s now considered news for him in the fantasy world. But, those are his best four finishes of 2013 so if he’s going to bust one, it would be right about now. No course history (all MCs) to speak about here.
These folks have struggled on this track or in general recently.
Chez Reavie: Five starts, four MCs and a T63. Ryan Palmer scoffs at me.
Colt Knost: Five starts, four MCs and a T52.
Erik Compton: Great story, stale golf as he’s MC his last four events.
Tom Gillis: Five straight weekends off on TOUR.
Paul Haley II: I’ll take Bill Haley AND The Comets instead.
David Mathis: I’ll take Johnny Mathis!
Rookie of the Week Last Week
I keep an eye on the youngin’s each week to see who is making the most noise.
Sony: Russell Henley WIN
Humana: David Lingmerth P2
Farmers: Brad Fritsch T9
WMPO: James Hahn T16
AT&T: James Hahn T3
NTO: Luke Guthrie T21
WGC-Match Play: Russell Henley 2nd round
Honda: Luke Guthrie 3rd
WGC-Cadillac: Russell Henley T28
Puerto Rico: Jordan Spieth 2nd
Tampa Bay: Jordan Spieth T7; Shawn Stefani T7; Ben Kohles T7
Arnold Palmer: Ben Kohles T14
Shell Houston Open: Robert Streb T22
Valero Texas Open: Ben Kohles T37
Masters: Russell Henley MC
RBC Heritage: Russell Henley T6
Zurich Classic: D. H. Lee T8
Wells Fargo Championship: Derek Ernst WIN
THE PLAYERS: David Lingmerth. Great back-to-back weeks for the rookies on TOUR!
SEASON TOTAL: $2,559,123
HTOC: Steve Stricker (2nd; $665,000)
Sony: Charles Howell III (T3; $324,800)
Humana: Tim Clark (MC)
Farmers: Rickie Fowler (T6; $204,350)
WMPO: Jason Dufner (MC)
AT&T Pebble: Hunter Mahan (T16; $94,250)
Northern Trust: Bill Haas (T3; $343,200)
WGC-Match Play: Charl Schwartzel (T33; $46,000)
Honda: Lee Westwood (T9; $156,000)
WGC-Cadillac Championship: Matt Kuchar (T35; $68,500)
Tampa Bay: Jim Furyk (T7; $148,892)
Bay Hill: Sergio Garcia (WD after three rounds)
Shell Houston: Jimmy Walker (T50; $14,838)
Valero: Cameron Tringale (MC)
Masters: Phil Mickelson (T54; $18,320)
RBC Heritage: Luke Donald (T3; $336,400)
Zurich Classic: Bubba Watson (T15; $102,500)
Wells Fargo: Webb Simpson (T32; $37,073)
THE PLAYERS: Nick Watney (MC)
HPBNC: Jason Day. Sorry, mate…