Josh Culp

Culp's Corner

print article archives RSS

FanDuel Focus: THE PLAYERS

Wednesday, May 10, 2017


As we get more and more data for the FanDuel format, the logical stategy of paying up for studs on the back-end is finally starting to win out from week-to-week.

When the product was first introduced, we saw a few wacky weeks with popular plays missing the cut, but for the most part, it is still worth taking chances before the cut and playing it safe in Rounds 3 & 4. 

Instead of looking stars versus scrubs, let's take another look at pre-cut performance versus post-cut performance to see what golfers should be on our radar this week. 


Pre-Cut Stars
For this experiment, I'm going to look at long-term performance before the cut and compare it to performance after the cut. 

I will point out a few examples that look notable to me. The idea is that some golfers are prone to fast starts, but start to fade as the week goes on. That could be due to added pressure or it could be due to typical weekend course setups with pin placements, firmer greens, and what not.

Emiliano Grillo: Ranks 25th in the field for PRE-CUT performance but just 65th in POST-CUT performance. 

Ryan Palmer: Ranks 16th in the field for PRE-CUT performance but way down at 70th in POST-CUT performance. 

Martin Kaymer: Ranks 27th in the field for PRE-CUT performance but just 100th in POST-CUT performance. 

Steve Stricker: Ranks 30th in the field for PRE-CUT performance but just 53rd in POST-CUT performance. 

Martin Kaymer has the course history but he's also been getting off to quick starts lately. He's been top 25 after Round 2 in seven of his last eight PGA TOUR starts. 
 

Post-Cut Stars
On the flip side, here are some golfers that really shine on the weekend but don't always fire out of the gates. 

Tyrrell Hatton: Ranks 11th in the field for POST-CUT performance but just 73rd in PRE-CUT performance. 

Branden Grace: Ranks 16th in the field for POST-CUT performance but just 75th in PRE-CUT performance. 

Rickie Fowler: Ranks 8th in the field for POST-CUT performance but just 15th in PRE-CUT performance. 

Louis Oosthuizen: Ranks 15th in the field for POST-CUT performance but just 58th in PRE-CUT performance. 

We see some large differentials here. Basically, these golfers do not provide a steady stream of good play week-to-week but when they do have their A game, they don't let up over the weekend.

Another way to look at it would be that these golfers don't give in to pressure situations, so they play a similar brand of golf for all four rounds but their competitors slowly get weeded out over the weekend. 

Rickie Fowler is an interesting case because he was not known to be a closer for the longest time. Now, looking at the last three years of data, his performance actually increases 3/4 of a shot in Rounds 3 & 4 versus before the cut. 
 


5 Golfers to Pay Up For: 
Rickie Fowler ($9,400)
Jason Day ($10,300)
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,600)
Justin Thomas ($9,100)
Rory McIlroy ($10,500)


5 Value Plays: 
Francesco Molinari ($7,600)
Russell Henley ($6,800)
Daniel Berger ($7,300)
Bernd Wiesberger ($6,300)
Emiliano Grillo ($6,400)



Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



Highest Searched Golfers over the last 7 days



Video Center

  •  
    Dose: Zeke Smashes 49ers

    Dose: Zeke Smashes 49ers
  •  
    Dose: Raiders Win Thriller

    Dose: Raiders Win Thriller
  •  
    RotoPat: Week 7 Rankings

    RotoPat: Week 7 Rankings
  •  
    Dose: Diggs Not Practicing

    Dose: Diggs Not Practicing
  •  
    Power Rankings: Saints Rise

    Power Rankings: Saints Rise
  •  
    Waivers: Top Dallas RB?

    Waivers: Top Dallas RB?
  •  
    Dose: Mariota Wins in Return

    Dose: Mariota Wins in Return
  •  
    Dose: Vintage Peterson

    Dose: Vintage Peterson