Macaulay Renner

Renner's Rundown

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BMW Championship Preview

Tuesday, September 12, 2017


After a short break that included some much needed NFL action (except for those David Johnson owners), we slide back into the third leg of the FedExCup Playoffs for the BMW Championship. 


This week's host course is beautiful Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, Illinois, as they host for the third time in five years (2013 and 2015).

  

The top 70 players compete to win the event while the top 30 in the FedExCup standings at the end of the week will advance onto the TOUR Championship which takes place next week in Atlanta.


Course

Par 71 - 7,198 yards - Lake Forest, Illinois

2015 Field Average: 69.49

 

Opened in 1991 and designed by Tom Fazio, Conway Farms Golf Club plays host to  the second oldest golf tournament played in the United States. This course was designed around the traditional Scottish links-style course complete with sand traps and unforgiving fescue. 


The course is laid out over 209 acres of prairie amid a sea of fescue grass that is like water in that it can cost you a stroke if you get too errant. When the wind blows this course can be a different creature. 


The fairways and greens are bentgrass. The greens are challenging, especially on the par 3s that have multi-tiered levels that make putting very difficult. The wind isn't forecasted to blow hard, so there is a good chance that we see low numbers as this course has allowed an opening round 61 to Jason Day in 2015 and a 59 to Jim Furyk in 2013.


This week I am leaning heavily on recent form rather than course history as we only have minimum course history with many players having never played the course.


There doesn't seem to be any specific angle here as both driving accuracy and distance have won here while never really revealing a specific set of traits we are looking for in a golfer. 


Form seems to trumps all this week as the last 9-of-10 winners have ranked inside the top 30 in FedExCup points. I don't expect any dark horses or surprises this week. 


Weather

The weather for the Midwest will not be interrupted by anyone named Irma, I can gladly report.


The forecast for Lake Forest calls for the temps to be in the upper 50s in the morning on Thursday and Friday with some clouds in the morning leading to sunny skies and mild 70-degree temps throughout the weekend.


Past Five Winners

2016- Dustin Johnson 

2015 - Jason Day

2014 - Billy Horschel

2013- Zach Johnson

2012 - Rory McIlroy


Recent Form Stats

Since there is only two years of course-specific stats, I went a different route and compiled stats from recent play.

All these stats are a courtesy of fantasynational.com and look at performance for the last 24 rounds a golfer has played on the PGA TOUR. 


Driving Distance

Rory McIlroy

Tony Finau

Justin Thomas

Kevin Tway

Dustin Johnson

Luke List

Grayson Murray

Jason Day

Gary Woodland

Brooks Koepka

Kevin Chappell


Fairways Gained

Henrik Stenson

Kyle Stanley

Francesco Molinari

Chez Reavie

Ryan Moore

Webb Simpson

Matt Kuchar

Keegan Bradley

Paul Casey

Emiliano Grillo


Greens in Regulation over the Field

Henrik Stenson

Patrick Cantlay

Paul Casey

Gary Woodland

Luke List

Jordan Spieth

Hideki Matsuyama

Marc Leishman

Kyle Stanley

Danny Lee


Strokes Gained Total

Jordan Spieth

Paul Casey

Justin Thomas

Rickie Fowler

Patrick Reed

Jason Day

Louis Oosthuizen

Dustin Johnson

Charlie Hoffman

Hideki Matsuyama


Strokes Gained on Par 3s

Justin Thomas 

Dustin Johnson 

Rickie Fowler 

Hudson Swafford 

Marc Leishman 

Paul Casey 

Hideki Matsuyama 

Brooks Koepka

Webb Simpson 

Patrick Reed


Strokes Gained on Par 4s

Jordan Spieth

Paul Casey

Justin Thomas

Rickie Fowler

Charley Hoffman

Ian Poulter

Jason Day

Dustin Johnson

Louis Oosthuizen

Henrik Stenson


Strokes Gained Putting

Rickie Fowler

Patrick Reed

Henrik Stenson

Louis Oosthuizen

Justin Thomas

Bryson DeChambeau

Scott Brown

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Chez Reavie

Webb Simpson


Birdies Gained

Jordan Spieth

Jason Day

Brooks Koepka

Hideki Matsuyama

Rickie Fowler

Henrik Stenson

Charley Hoffman

Paul Casey

Justin Thomas

Grayson Murray



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Macaulay Scott Renner has been playing ice hockey and golf for over 40 years while growing up on the beaches of the NJ shore. An avid Grateful Dead fan, he has been playing fantasy sports since 1999 and currently resides in Philadelphia. Macaulay can found on Twitter @msr427.



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