Josh Culp

DFS Dish

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DFS Dish: Sentry TOC

Wednesday, January 3, 2018


Welcome to the inaugural DFS Dish! 

 
This weekly feature will be geared toward DFS gamers that play on websites like FanDuel and DraftKings. 
 
The beauty of DFS is that it's a brand new puzzle, each and every week. 
 
I will try to solve that puzzle every week, or at least lock in a few pieces.
 
Salary Strategy
 
If you are playing large-field, guaranteed prize pool contests on FanDuel or DraftKings then ownership is important. Especially with a limited field like we have in Hawaii this week. The number of duplicate lineups will be very high this week. There have been plenty of studies done that show that most gamers will spend ALL of their salary or leave just a few hundred dollars on the table. 
 
If you follow the pack and use all of your salary then you are more likely going to share your lineup with someone else. That may not be a huge deal if the payouts are flatter. However, let's look at the $7 Season Tee Off contest on DraftKings as our example. First place pays out $50,000 but second place drops way down to "just" $20,000. If you don't focus on leaving some extra salary on the table then winning that $50K will nearly be impossible since you will be sharing with one or multiple other gamers. 

This matters even more this week where we have a field full of winners. We know they all have the potential to crack the winner's circle since they've all done it at some point in the last 12 months. Leaving more salary on the table won't just help eliminate complete duplication but it will also create unique 2/3/4-golfer combinations. That means you can watch your team soar up the leaderboard while others are stuck in a traffic jam with the rest of the pack. 
 
Recommendation: When playing GPPs this week, leave between $300 to $1,500 in salary on the table to help keep your roster unique. There are always exceptions. If you have a good gauge on ownership then you can stick a few of the lowest-owned golfers on your team and then not worry too much about remaining salary. As you play more GPPs this will become easier to gauge who will be popular. 
 

Weather Strategy

The latest forecast on WindFinder and Accuweather both show projected winds in the 15-to-20 MPH throughout the week. Gusts should flirt with 25 MPH. This forecast looks very similar to the 2014 edition, so take an extra peek at that leaderboard if you want a tiebreaker. 

With a tiny field, there are no tee-time waves to target. Instead, we can look at performance in the wind to see who might be up for the challenge. 

When winds become a factor, the elite ball-strikers generally get a boost. The best way to hit approach shots in the wind is to strike it pure. The other way to shine in the wind is to have good course management and/or great short game. 

Distance is often an underrated aspect when it comes to wind performance. Depending on the speed and directions, it is sometimes a huge advantage to have that extra 10 or 15 yards in the tank to be able to carry a bunker or avoid a water hazard. 
 
Looking at rounds since 2014 when the wind is 14 MPH or higher, the following names have posted the best performance (per round): 
 
Jordan Spieth
Dustin Johnson
Hideki Matsuyama
Rickie Fowler
Jon Rahm
Brooks Koepka
Austin Cook
Daniel Berger
Kevin Chappell
Marc Leishman
 
Austin Cook has a smaller sample (16 rounds in the wind) but so far he's crushed it in the wind. 
 
Another way to look at wind performance is to look at a golfers baseline performance and then see who shows the most improvement with rounds in the wind. I call these Wind Specialists. The top 10 wind specialists (since 2014) in the field are as follows: 
 
Pat Perez
Hideki Matsuyama
Ryan Armour
Kevin Chappell
Patton Kizzire
Si Woo Kim
Kyle Stanley
Jordan Spieth
Daniel Berger
Billy Horschel
 
Recommendation: Take a hard look at Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama when looking for team anchors that can deal with the wind. Consider using Austin Cook as a cheap flier whose elite short game may help him thrive in windy conditions. 

Value Spotlight
 
Wesley Bryan: His form has gone off the rails a bit but Bryan is someone that struggles to hang off-the-tee most weeks. With a plethora of short par 4s at Kapalua, Bryan won't need much distance to get into scoring range. From there, he can really shine. Looking for two examples we can first look at the 2017 John Deere Classic where he gained 8.2 strokes approaching-the-green and then 4.1 strokes with the putter. Second, we can rewind to the tournament that earned his seat this week, the 2017 RBC Heritage. It was there he gained 8.4 strokes approaching-the-green and 3.8 strokes putting. Those are elite numbers and most of the golfers priced around him this week don't have that kind of upside. 
 
 
Hopefully, this article will help you when trying to finalize your DFS rosters for the week. This is a brand new column, so feel free to send over any feedback or suggestions and I'll see what I can do moving forward. Best of luck in all your contests this week! 
 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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