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Josh Culp

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DFS Dish: WGC-Mexico

Wednesday, February 28, 2018


This week's WGC-Mexico Championship yields plenty of big contests across the DFS industry. 

These type of events are fun to sweat because you never truly feel your team is out of it. With four guaranteed rounds, there is always that chance that one or two of your golfers catch fire over the weekend and completely flip your positioning on the leaderboard. 

If you've been on the fence about diving into DFS, this is a good week to get started. Here are some tips that might help you build your rosters...

 
Roster Construction

This week we have a no-cut event with only 65 golfers. That means DFS gamers will have a smaller pool of players to work with, compared to most weeks. That means the ratio of duplicate lineups will be higher this week

If you're playing in large-pool guaranteed contests, duplicate lineups are something you want to avoid at all costs. The way the prize pools are set up on DraftKings and FanDuel, minimum cashes are better than nothing but not great in the long-term. You need to have some really top-heavy finishes to pad your long-term ROI. 

Besides building strong lineups, you also need to avoid these duplicate lineups. The easiest way to do that is leaving some salary on the table. We see it time and time again where most owners use all of their allotted salary or leave just $100 on the table. 

Recommendation: Leave at least $300 in remaining salary when building GPP lineups this week. If you think the golfers you pick are going to be heavily owned, considering leaving even more than $300 on the table. I think the honey hole this week will be leaving $400 to $600, which helps keep your rosters unique but also doesn't sacrifice any upside. 


Weather Update

There is not much change in the early-week forecast. 

Temperatures look to creep into the low 80s while winds remain calm. 

With great weather and condensed tee-times , there doesn't look to be much of a weather angle to dive into this week. 



Dealing with Altitude
 
This week's course is situated more than 7,500 feet above sea level. The PGA TOUR doesn't see that kind of elevation ever. The only regular event in decent altitude is the Barracuda which is an alternate-field event, so you won't see much overlap in the field this week. 

On the Euro Tour, there is actually plenty of events played at elevation. The Omega European Masters is the big one but there are also loads of events in South Africa which are all played in the 3,700 to 5,300 foot range.

Looking at performance in those high-altitude events, the following names have gained the most total strokes since the start of 2015: 

Dean Burmester
Branden Grace
Dylan Frittelli
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Alex Noren
Charl Schwartzel
Jorge Campillo
Alexander Bjork
Tyrrell Hatton
Paul Dunne
Hao Tong Li


Clearly, this shouldn't be taken as gospel since most of this week's field don't make many trips to South Africa or Crans Montana for these Euro Tour stops. Instead, we should use this list above to consider pecking out some potential sleepers.  


Course Fit

We return to poa annuagreensthis week which we saw plenty of recently in California. 

Looking at performance on poa annua greens since the start of 2014, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this: 

Dustin Johnson
Jordan Spieth
Jon Rahm
Phil Mickelson
Justin Rose
Justin Thomas
Tony Finau
Bubba Watson
Paul Casey
Brendan Steele
Matt Kuchar
Chez Reavie
Gary Woodland
Patrick Cantlay
Branden Grace


Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement in the wind (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  

Bubba Watson
Jhonattan Vegas
Dustin Johnson
Jon Rahm
Tony Finau
Jason Dufner
Justin Thomas
Adam Hadwin
Brendan Steele
Chez Reavie
Gary Woodland
Phil Mickelson
Kyle Stanley
Jordan Spieth


Recommendation:
 A few names that pop on both lists are: Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Bubba Watson, Brendan Steele, Chez Reavie, and Gary Woodland. Consider loading up on these golfers or at least give them a slight boost.  
  

Value Spotlight
 
Marc Leishman At the beginning of 2018, Leish was all the rage. He was heavily owned across all contests and he hasn't really disappointed outside of a missed cut at the Genesis Open. Despite all that, his salary has plummetted down to $10,300 on FanDuel and just $7,600 on DraftKings. What really draws my eye to Leish is one of his past quotes. He said this at the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open but it still applies this week, "It’s the same grass as I grew up on. I grew up on poa greens and kikuyu fairways so that’s probably got something to do with it." That is the same grass types that we'll see this week at Chapultepec GC. The Aussie had a cold putter at the Genesis but he had gained strokes with the putter in all seven of his previous ShotLink-lasered events. I'm expecting a big bounce back for Leishman. 


Best of luck in all your contests this week! 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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