Josh Culp

DFS Dish

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DFS Dish: Arnold Palmer Invite

Wednesday, March 14, 2018


The TOUR hops over to Orlando for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

It's an invitation-only event which limits the field to 120 golfers. From a DFS perspective, that means a higher percentage of golfers will play all four rounds, compared to a normal week. That means we are able to take a few more risks on lower-priced golfers but we shouldn't get carried away. 

Every week in DFS is a new puzzle so let's see if we can piece some things together...  

 

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Weather Update

Last week we had loads of wind at Innisbrook and looking at wind performance proved to be one of the more predictive angles. There is no reason to look at that for Bay Hill since the current forecast calls for calm winds throughout the week (4-to-8 MPH range with gusts not set to exceed 15 MPH). 

Outside of calm conditions, golfers will see very cool morning temperatures that graduate into perfect golfing weather as the days progress. Thursday high is set at 71 degrees while Friday through Saturday has the chance to yield temps in the low 80s. 

Unless there is a drastic change in the forecast we are in for a great week, weather-wise. 

 

Course Stats
 
Bay Hill is a course with water in play on nine holes. 

I like to look at course-specific stats most weeks but even more so when there are lots of hazards and doglegs like we have here in Orlando. 

Looking at a stat like Strokes Gained Off the Tee can help identify what golfers might feel comfortable shaping shots here to give themselves a better chance to attack with their irons. Looking at SG OTT at Bay Hill (since 2012) the following names show up near the top: 

Bubba Watson
Henrik Stenson
Hideki Matsuyama
Hunter Mahan
Adam Scott
Jason Day
Francesco Molinari
Justin Rose
Zach Johnson
Rory McIlroy

I skipped over Grillo and Lovemark as they have played just 8 rounds. 

After the tee shot, golfers still have plenty of water hazards to deal with on approach. Having a look at Strokes Gained Approach at Bay Hill might help us identify which golfers feel comfortable on this layout: 

Henrik Stenson
Lucas Glover
Matt Every
Tiger Woods
Hudson Swafford
Jason Kokrak
Marc Leishman
Francesco Molinari
Rory McIlroy
Adam Scott

Golfers that show up on both lists include: Henrik Stenson, Francesco Molinari, Rory McIlroy, and Adam Scott.  

Sometimes a hot putter can rise up the leaderboard but I prefer to lean on ball striking from week-to-week. These four golfers above have proven their comfort at Bay Hill so I would invest with confidence in all four of these golfers. 


Course Fit

Bay Hill Club & Lodge features TifEagle Bermuda green surfaces. This grass was installed ahead of the 2016 edition and as a result, the greens haven't needed overseed since. 

Looking at performance on courses with bermuda greens since the start of 2014, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this: 


Rory Mcilroy

Adam Scott
Louis Oosthuizen
Jason Day
Francesco Molinari
Justin Rose
Rickie Fowler
Hideki Matsuyama
Henrik Stenson
Kevin Chappell
Tommy Fleetwood
Tyrrell Hatton
Lucas Glover
Marc Leishman
Ollie Schniederjans



Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on bermuda (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  


Si Woo Kim
Louis Oosthuizen
Ollie Schniederjans
Francesco Molinari
Lucas Glover
Kevin Chappell
Ryan Armour
Sangmoon Bae
Luke Donald
Grayson Murray
Ian Poulter
Ben Martin
Adam Scott
Billy Horschel
Luke List



Recommendation:
 A few names that pop on both lists are: Louis Oosthuizen, Ollie Schniederjans, Francesco Molinari, Lucas Glover, Kevin Chappell, and Adam Scott. Consider giving these golfers a boost in your rankings this week. 


Value Spotlight
 
Kevin Chappell We just saw Chappell pop in the bermuda list above which puts him on the radar to begin with. It's not just bermuda performance that is interesting, though. The UCLA product has steady form, landing inside the top 70 after 55 of his last 58 rounds on TOUR, dating back to last year's RBC Canadian Open. Chappell gets it done through the air, gaining strokes in the long game (off-the-tee plus approach) in 20 of his last 21 ShotLink events. On top of the form, Chappell also has played this event six times, posting finishes of T24 or better in half of those apearances. That includes a runner-up finish in 2016. Chappie should be popular this week but rightfully so.

Best of luck in all your contests this week! 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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