Josh Culp

DFS Dish

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DFS Dish: 118th U.S. Open

Wednesday, June 13, 2018


As the season's second major draws nearer, the USGA is putting its final touches on Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. 

There is some rain hitting the course today but it still should be a very tough test. 

As a reminder, this field of 156 golfers will be cut to just Top 60 and Ties, which is 10 less than the normal week-to-week PGA TOUR stop. 

Combine a full field, a tighter cut line, and a difficult golf course, and this week will be extremely tough in terms of getting 6-of-6 golfers through the cut

A DFS site like Fantasy Draft could be fun this week since they let you pick seven golfers and drop the lowest score. Even with that format, getting 6-of-7 through the cut will likely be difficult. 

Gamers should also take note that Yahoo! recently launched golf contests for their DFS product. I gave it a whirl last week and it's pretty good outside of some obvious features missing like a CSV export. The big scoring format note is they give bigger bonuses to longer birdie trains. Par breakers were already a big deal on all sites but even more so on Yahoo since you can't rack up bigger birdie bonuses unless you are making lots of birdies to begin with! 

 

Editor’s Note: With over 15,000 reviews, DRAFT is the highest rated fantasy sports app. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link.

 

Weather Update

With a big event on hand, let's take a look at a trio of forecasts....

Thursday (R1)
:

Windy.com (ECMWF Model): Sunny with high of 72 degrees. Winds 13-14 MPH all day with gusts up to 20 MPH. 
Windfinder: Sunny with a high near 70 degrees. Winds at 14-17 MPH all day with gusts up to 32 MPH. 
NOAA: Sunny with a high near 77 degrees. Winds 10-to-17 MPH with gusts up to 29 MPH. 

Friday (R2):

Windy.com (ECMWF Model): 
Partly sunny with high near 65 degrees. Winds around 13 MPH early before calming to 6-to-10 MPH in the PM. 
Windfinder: 
Sunny with a high near 64 degrees. Winds at 10-to-15 MPH very early before settling at 8 MPH for most of the afternoon. 
NOAA: 
Mostly sunny with a high near 72 degrees. Winds at 7-to-15 MPH. 

Weekend:
 Temps in the mid-to-upper 70s with winds around 10-to-15 MPH. 

Thursday looks to be a consensus amongst the sites, should be steady winds all day with some big gusts, particularly in the afternoon. Friday is still up in the air but the consensus currently looks like temps in the low 70s with a bit of a morning breeze before dying down in the afternoon. 

If I had to pick out a preferred tee-time wave, it looks like the AM/PM wave might have the advantage, if any wave does. They look to avoid the highest gusts on Thursday afternoon and also get the calmer PM wind on Friday. 
 

DRAFT.com 
 
The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts. 

The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings. 

OVERRATED GOLFERS

Jon Rahm (80.6 Projected Pts): I'm not a believer in the temper narrative so that's not why he's here. Instead, I'm looking at his ball-striking since his win at the CareerBuilder. His driving remains elite but he's lost strokes on approach in five of his last six starts. Always capable of contending but I don't think he deserves this top-3 spot which is where his pre-draft ranking begins. 

Pat Perez (66.5 Projected Pts): Another fiery personality here. Perez has lost his mojo since a T20 at the WGC-Mexico Championship. He's lost strokes to the field in four of his last five starts. The culprits have been poor iron play and poor putting. He's been positioned outside the top 50 thru R2 in all five of those starts. A major championship is not where golfers typically find their lost form so I will pass on Perez and thinks its the safest route until he shows a spark. 

UNDERRATED GOLFERS


Tiger Woods (39.9 Projected Pts): As this legend rounds into form he ranks top 20 in my personal model and top 10 in the betting markets which are usually a bit inflated in his favor. Even accounting for that, this projection is just too low for Woods who gained 11.2 strokes on approach in his most recent start. He's actually gained strokes approaching-the-green in 7-of-8 ShotLink starts since returning to action this year. 

Jimmy Walker (55.0 Projected Pts): The Texan is hitting his stride with five straight top 20s, starting at the Masters. His irons are back to pre-Lyme Disease levels and he's riding a hot putter as well. A winner at Baltusrol, we know he doesn't mind the conditions in this part of the country. If he wind picks up then he's always well-equipped to deal wth that. 

Course Fit

We are used to seeing poa annua greens on the West Coast Swing but lots of these classical, Northeastern courses also feature poa annua surfaces. That will be the case this week at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.  


Looking at performance on poa courses since the start of 2014, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this: 

 

Dustin Johnson
Jason Day
Jordan Spieth
Jon Rahm
Justin Thomas
Phil Mickelson
Bubba Watson
Paul Casey
Tony Finau
Justin Rose
Sergio Garcia
Brandt Snedeker
Tyrrell Hatton
Brendan Steele
Tommy Fleetwood


Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on poa annua courses (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  

 

Scott Stallings
Bubba Watson
Jhonattan Vegas
Patrick Rodgers
Cameron Smith
Dustin Johnson
Justin Thomas
Chesson Hadley
Scott Piercy
Tony Finau
Brandt Snedeker
Jon Rahm
Adam Hadwin
Brendan Steele
Shane Lowry


Recommendation:
 A few names that pop on both lists are Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Bubba Watson, Tony Finau, Brandt Snedeker, and Brendan Steele


Value Spotlight
 
Branden Grace He's not in the bargain basement across DFS sites this week but he generally sits around the average price of a golfer. For a golfer that grades out in my top 10 and also has an AM/PM tee time, I think the South African presents a lot of value. Last time the TOUR stopped here we had Retief Goosen win Ernie Els and Tim Clark right in the mix also. Trevor Immelman also flashed up the board before a weekend fade. There might be something about this setup that caters to South Africans. Grace already owns five finishes or T6 or better in major championships. He's not afraid of the spotlight. 


Best of luck in all your contests this week! 
 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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