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DFS Dish: BMW Championship

Wednesday, September 5, 2018


We are done sweating the cut line for the 2017-18 season. 

There are two events remaining in the Playoffs. First is this week's BMW Championship, a 70-man field which is now a 69-man field after Daniel Berger withdrew. Then after a week off we will head to East Lake where the Top 30 will play in the finale. 

What does that mean for DFS gamers? It means fewer options to choose from. By default, that means a higher chance of duplicate lineups. That doesn't mean you need to go crazy with your picks this week, but you should be well aware that it'll be tough to find many sub-10% gems come Thursday morning. 

As always, if you want to avoid duplicates in GPP rosters then consider going contrarian with a spot or two. The other option is to leave a chunk of salary on the table. A majority of the field will continue to leave $0 to $200 on the table when filling out their lineups. Personally, I'm comfortable leaving as much as $1,500 on the table. Anyone that made it this far in the Playoffs has the capability of posting a top 20. 


Let's dive into a few last-minute research items like weather, course fit, and value plays....

 

Editor’s Note: With over 15,000 reviews, DRAFT is the highest rated fantasy sports app. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link.

 


Weather Update

Thursday (R1): A chance of showers and thunderstorms (40%). Mostly sunny with a high near 90 degrees. Calm winds. 

Friday (R2): A chance of showers and thunderstorms (50%). Mostly cloudy with a high near 79 degrees. Calm winds. 

Talk about a massive swing in temperature from Round 1 to Round 2! Winds look to be relatively quiet this week but the major variable will be if/when the rain arrives. It will also make a big difference as to whether the rain arrives as a thunderstorm or if we just see a light shower or two. 


Chance of precipitation remains steady around 40% for most of the week so it will be a minor miracle if we get through all four rounds without a delay. 


DRAFT.com 
 
The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts. 

The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings. 

OVERRATED GOLFERS

Phil Mickelson (70.9 Projected Pts): Tried to make a big push over the last few weeks to cement his captain's pick. He's been given the nod so now he can take his foot off the gas. Lefty does a lot of his damage on the par 5s so I'm willing to dock him quite a bit as we head to a tough, par-70 layout. 

Pat Perez (65 Projected Pts): He's projected higher than in-form stars like Bryson DeChambeau and Adam Scott. However, Perez is having a letdown season and he is also coming off a week where he withdrew mid-event as he became a first-time father. I've been saying this for most of the summer, but I am just fine fading Perez until the fall. 

UNDERRATED GOLFERS


Tiger Woods (40.2 Projected Pts): Was seen using his trusty Scott Cameron in the practice rounds this week. Putting hasn't been a major issue, as he's gained strokes putting in four of his last five ShotLinks starts, but it could be a nice confidence boost if he starts seeing them pour in. The thing that is likely causing him to keep switching putters is his performance from 5-to-10 feet. He's lost strokes to the field from this range in five of his last seven starts. This is probably the most frustrating range because it feels like you should make so many from that mid-range. I like Tiger's chances to figure things out and get right back into contention this week. 

Tommy Fleetwood (42.3 Projected Pts): The Englishman continues to shine as he's posted eight straight finishes inside the top 35 on the PGA TOUR. I'd say his transition to American-style courses is nearly complete. Now all he needs is a win. What's in his favor this week? Three of the par 3s at Aronimink are LONG. Fleetwood ranks 4th in this field in Strokes Gained on Par 3s over the Last 12 Months. That includes a ranking of 6th from the 200-225 bucket and 17th from 225+ yards. 

Course Fit

Like so many of these Northern, summer venues, Aronimink features bentgrass greens.  

Looking at performance on bentgrass greens since the start of 2014, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this: 

 

Justin Rose
Jordan Spieth
Rory Mcilroy
Rickie Fowler
Dustin Johnson
Brooks Koepka
Jason Day
Jon Rahm
Henrik Stenson
Hideki Matsuyama
Paul Casey
Francesco Molinari
Justin Thomas
Marc Leishman
Tony Finau


Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on bentgrass (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  

 

Abraham Ancer
Peter Uihlein
Brooks Koepka
Rickie Fowler
Justin Rose
Kyle Stanley
Ryan Armour
Francesco Molinari
Andrew Putnam
Rory Mcilroy
Marc Leishman
Jordan Spieth
Keegan Bradley
Tiger Woods
Byeong Hun An


Recommendation:
 Looking for golfers that crack both lists we find Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka, Francesco Molinari, and Marc Leishman. All of these names should be considered strong plays this week. 


Value Spotlight
 
Marc Leishman We always say it's tough to defend a title on the PGA TOUR. A lot that has to do with media obligations and the extra attention you receive. The Aussie won't have to deal with too much of that since we are on a short week where a lot of the attention is getting drawn to the Ryder Cup Captain's picks. It should feel mostly like a normal week for Leish. The Big Aussie is a Virginia resident so he's playing within 300 miles of home. That kind of comfort is always nice but it also means more familiarity with the grass types and climate. All of this is a roundabout way of saying Leishman is underpriced and there isn't anything that suggests a down week is on the horizon. He is also arriving off a top 25 at the Dell Tech, gaining 3.2 strokes off-the-tee and 3.0 strokes on approach to get the job done. The big Aussie makes for a great salary saver across the industry. 


Best of luck in all your contests this week! 
 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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