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Josh Culp

DFS Dish

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DFS Dish: Hero World Challenge

Tuesday, November 27, 2018


An exclusive field of 18 elite golfers heads to The Bahamas this week for the Hero World Challenge. 

For most, that doesn't sound like an appealing event to play fantasy golf. However, DraftKings and FanDuel think otherwise. Thanks to the big names in the field, they've propped up some relatively large prize pools for us to take a shot on. 

When you think about drafting 6 (of 18) golfers to a lineup, it becomes difficult to create a unique roster. 

For that reason, I will remind you to keep it tight this week. There is no reason to overextend yourself on a week that presents very few chances to separate yourself from the field. 

On a week where anyone in the field can win, you should not be afraid to leave salary on the table. I'm not talking one or two hundred. If you feel good about a lineup that leaves a few thousand on the table... don't tinker just to use more of your salary. 

Let's take a quick pulse on the weather and then look at a few course angles that might reveal some golfers that take to the course. 


Weather Update

Thursday (R1): Overcast with a high of 73 degrees. Winds NNE at 8-to-12 MPH. 

Friday (R2): Slight chance of rain with a high near 77 degrees. Winds East at 14-to-18 MPH. 

The Thursday/Friday forecast hasn't changed much since I looked at it yesterday. Thursday should be a bit calmer than Friday. 

When I looked yesterday, Saturday was dicey with storms and high winds expecting. Now, the rain has shifted into Sunday but the high winds (20 MPH+) are still expected to arrive on Saturday. 

 
Course Fit

Albany features bermudagrass greens. Given the location of this event, performance on a grass like paspalum would also be relevant. Combining the two, we get performance on grainy greens...

Looking at performance on grainy greens since the start of 2014, there are seven golfers in this field that improve their performance on grainy greens compared to their baseline:  

Tiger Woods
Bryson DeChambeau
Justin Thomas
Gary Woodland
Justin Rose
Jason Day
Dustin Johnson


Now let's keep that same number (7) and find out the top 7 overall performers on grainy greens, since 2014:  

Dustin Johnson
Justin Rose
Jason Day
Justin Thomas
Rickie Fowler
Henrik Stenson
Tiger Woods


Recommendation:
 Golfers that crack both lists include Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, and Jason Day


The second angle we'll look at is the performance on par 72s. There are five par 5s on hand this week at Albany so golfers that play well on par 72s should really feel comfortable here. 

Again, we have seven golfers that improve their performance on par 72s, compared to their baseline: 

Keegan Bradley
Justin Rose
Alex Noren
Tony Finau
Patrick Reed
Justin Thomas
Hideki Matsuyama

From there, let's look at the top overall performers on par 72s since 2014: 

Justin Rose
Dustin Johnson
Jason Day
Henrik Stenson
Hideki Matsuyama
Rickie Fowler
Justin Thomas

Recommendation: Golfers that crack both lists are Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama


Golfers that crack the overlap lists on both angles are Justin Thomas and Justin Rose. Definitely consider them as top-tier options this week. 


Value Spotlight
 
Henrik Stenson: The Swede finished runner-up here two years ago, falling two shy of Hideki Matsuyama. He was three clear of the rest of the field. Last year he had his wife caddie for him and may have treated this more like a vacation than a tournament. He finished 17th (of 18). This time around he is just six weeks removed from a minor knee procedure. He is looking to get some tournament reps ahead of 2019. If this were his first event back I'd be concerned but we saw him finish T12 just a few weeks ago at the DP World Tour Championship. From a long-term view I have him around the top 5 in this field but his salary is hovering near the bottom five. That is value. 


Best of luck in all your contests this week! 
 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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