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2019 Course History Guide

Wednesday, December 26, 2018


I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season. By now, you are probably itching for some fantasy golf action. 

To hold us over until the Tournament of Champions next week, I will be laying out the course history for every event for the upcoming schedule. 

Consider giving this article a bookmark and then returning as the year goes on. Or else you can just read the weekly picks column where I will provide the top 15 lists, as well. 

For anyone in One-and-Done leagues, these lists should provide some value, allowing you to scout out some spots for future picks and/or look for events with little or no history to plug in some younger stars. 

For each event I will look back over the last 10 years of history and provide a list of most strokes gained over the field (total, not per round). I have adjusted the numbers for strength of field but the numbers do not adjust for recency. For the purposes of this exercise, I want back-to-back wins in 2010 and 2011 to be more valuable than back-to-back top 10s in 2017 and 2018. For gaming purposes, you may want the opposite. I would suggest you dive into the results to see when the finishes took place. 

This will give us a good starting point to look at repeated success at a particular event/course. You can use the lists to pluck out specific plays or you can use the lists to give you a prototype of golfing style that thrives on a particular layout. 

To start things off, I will look at the Winter Events...

Sentry Tournament of Champions
Course: The Plantation Course at Kapalua

Most Strokes Gained at Kapalua since 2009: 


Dustin Johnson
: 78 strokes gained
Jordan Spieth: 57 strokes gained
Steve Stricker: 45 strokes gained
Patrick Reed: 42 strokes gained
Hideki Matsuyama: 38 strokes gained
Brandt Snedeker: 38 strokes gained
Matt Kuchar: 37 strokes gained
Zach Johnson: 35 strokes gained
Rickie Fowler: 33 strokes gained
Jason Day: 32 strokes gained
Jimmy Walker: 31 strokes gained
Webb Simpson: 29 strokes gained
Pat Perez: 29 strokes gained
Jonathan Byrd: 28 strokes gained
Geoff Ogilvy: 27 strokes gained
Martin Laird: 26 strokes gained
Bubba Watson: 24 strokes gained
Jason Dufner: 24 strokes gained
Ryan Moore: 23 strokes gained
Justin Thomas: 23 strokes gained


One-and-Done: DJ laps the field but mostly through volume. He is a regular here at the TOC, making eight starts since 2009. With a limited field and a course that gives everyone a lot of wedge opportunities, this isn't a place where you need to unleash heavy artillery and waster a top pick. Add in the extra rest/rust from the holiday break, and it's a good week to take a mid-range option. 





Sony Open in Hawaii
Course: Waialae Country Club

Most Strokes Gained at Waialae CC since 2009: 


Charles Howell III
: 91 strokes gained
Zach Johnson: 67 strokes gained
Marc Leishman: 67 strokes gained
Jimmy Walker: 66 strokes gained
Jerry Kelly: 60 strokes gained
Webb Simpson: 59 strokes gained
Brian Gay: 55 strokes gained
Tim Clark: 54 strokes gained
Chris Kirk: 51 strokes gained
Scott Piercy: 48 strokes gained
Brian Stuard: 45 strokes gained
Matt Kuchar: 44 strokes gained
Rory Sabbatini: 43 strokes gained
Justin Thomas: 42 strokes gained
Gary Woodland: 40 strokes gained
Brian Harman: 38 strokes gained
Harris English: 38 strokes gained
James Hahn: 38 strokes gained
Russell Henley: 37 strokes gained
Stewart Cink: 37 strokes gained


One-and-Done: It's still early in the calendar year and holiday rust is still a factor. That makes CH3 a primo play here because you won't miss him much down the road and he generally produces here, shortly after the holidays. Looking down the rest of the list, it's clear that distance isn't a requirement here, even if JT did shoot a 59 here en route to winning the 2017 edition. 





Desert Classic
Courses: Stadium Course at PGA WEST (x2), La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA WEST

Most Strokes Gained at the Desert Classic since 2012: 


Ryan Palmer
: 57 strokes gained
Charles Howell III: 55 strokes gained
Adam Hadwin: 52 strokes gained
David Lingmerth: 52 strokes gained
Bill Haas: 50 strokes gained
Brendan Steele: 47 strokes gained
Jason Dufner: 46 strokes gained
Zach Johnson: 45 strokes gained
Martin Laird: 44 strokes gained
Bud Cauley: 43 strokes gained
Webb Simpson: 41 strokes gained
Robert Garrigus: 41 strokes gained
Hudson Swafford: 40 strokes gained
Patrick Reed: 39 strokes gained
Phil Mickelson: 39 strokes gained
Lucas Glover: 38 strokes gained
Kevin Na: 37 strokes gained
Ben Crane: 35 strokes gained
Matt Kuchar: 34 strokes gained
Harris English: 34 strokes gained


One-and-Done: The courses used have changed a bit over the years but I've used data since 2012 for this one since it was a 5-round event before that. Regardless of the specific courses, the scoring is always low here as they play in Palm Springs which is basically a dome, weather-wise.  We've seen big hitters win the last two editions (Rahm and Swafford) but overall this is another event where elite wedge play will be your ticket to the top. 






Farmers Insurance Open
Courses: Torrey Pines South (x3), Torrey Pines North

Most Strokes Gained at the Farmers since 2009: 


Brandt Snedeker
: 94 strokes gained
Charles Howell III: 92 strokes gained
Marc Leishman: 74 strokes gained
Nick Watney: 67 strokes gained
J.B. Holmes: 64 strokes gained
Bill Haas: 62 strokes gained
Jason Day: 56 strokes gained
Hunter Mahan: 54 strokes gained
Keegan Bradley: 54 strokes gained
K.J. Choi: 49 strokes gained
Harris English: 48 strokes gained
Jhonattan Vegas: 48 strokes gained
Phil Mickelson: 48 strokes gained
Jimmy Walker: 48 strokes gained
Brendan Steele: 48 strokes gained
Gary Woodland: 47 strokes gained
Lucas Glover: 46 strokes gained
Justin Rose: 45 strokes gained
Tony Finau: 44 strokes gained
Bubba Watson: 42 strokes gained


One-and-Done: Another winter event and another strong showing by Charles Howell III. If you want to avoid the crowds then perhaps you should stay patient and wait to invest in CH3 until here at the Farmers. He's finished T16 or better in seven of his last nine appearances. Comparing this list to the previous lists, it's clear that distance becomes a bigger factor here. That makes sense when you consider the South Course stretches out to nearly 7,700 yards! 






Waste Management Phoenix Open
Course: TPC Scottsdale

Most Strokes Gained at the TPC Scottsdale since 2009: 


Bubba Watson
: 84 strokes gained
Brendan Steele: 83 strokes gained
Rickie Fowler: 74 strokes gained
Phil Mickelson: 73 strokes gained
Hideki Matsuyama: 68 strokes gained
Kevin Na: 68 strokes gained
Brandt Snedeker: 62 strokes gained
Webb Simpson: 55 strokes gained
Martin Laird: 54 strokes gained
Matt Kuchar: 54 strokes gained
Gary Woodland: 52 strokes gained
Ryan Moore: 52 strokes gained
Zach Johnson: 50 strokes gained
Ben Crane: 49 strokes gained
Hunter Mahan: 48 strokes gained
Harris English: 48 strokes gained
Scott Piercy: 46 strokes gained
William McGirt: 44 strokes gained
Nick Watney: 43 strokes gained
Daniel Berger: 40 strokes gained


One-and-Done: A course where you can set up plenty of scoring chances if you don't find trouble in the native areas. You also have massive crowds to deal with which makes history a little more valuable, in my book. We can't rule out the West Coast connection either, as a good chunk of this list has ties to Arizona or Las Vegas. Desert Golf. 






AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links (x2), Spyglass Hill, Monterey Peninsula CC

Most Strokes Gained at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am since 2010: 


Dustin Johnson
: 92 strokes gained
Phil Mickelson: 83 strokes gained
Jimmy Walker: 79 strokes gained
Jason Day: 74 strokes gained
Jordan Spieth: 74 strokes gained
Brandt Snedeker: 72 strokes gained
Patrick Reed: 55 strokes gained
Kevin Streelman: 52 strokes gained
J.B. Holmes: 49 strokes gained
Hunter Mahan: 48 strokes gained
Matt Jones: 47 strokes gained
Nick Watney: 46 strokes gained
Pat Perez: 43 strokes gained
Sean O'Hair: 42 strokes gained
Aaron Baddeley: 42 strokes gained
Bryce Molder: 41 strokes gained
Jason Kokrak: 40 strokes gained
Kevin Na: 39 strokes gained
Brian Gay: 39 strokes gained
Robert Garrigus: 34 strokes gained


One-and-Done: I used data since 2010 here since that's when Poppy Hills was swapped out with Monterey Peninsula. Despite the low scores and wacky format, there is a lot of firepower at the top of this list. It's also a list that is full of "wind specialists." Being able to control your ball flight in the wind and then scrambling when needed is huge around these parts. Just since 2007 we have three repeat winners (Mickelson, D Johnson, and Snedeker). Don't be afraid to go back to the well with a past champ here. Someone like Jimmy Walker would be perfect for OAD, if he arrives with a bit of form in his favor. 






Genesis Open
Course: Riviera Country Club

Most Strokes Gained at the Riviera since 2009: 


Dustin Johnson
: 106 strokes gained
K.J. Choi: 81 strokes gained
J.B. Holmes: 77 strokes gained
Jim Furyk: 62 strokes gained
Bubba Watson: 57 strokes gained
Jimmy Walker: 56 strokes gained
Keegan Bradley: 56 strokes gained
Phil Mickelson: 55 strokes gained
Luke Donald: 53 strokes gained
Cameron Tringale: 52 strokes gained
Ryan Moore: 51 strokes gained
Aaron Baddeley: 50 strokes gained
Vijay Singh: 48 strokes gained
Steve Stricker: 47 strokes gained
Adam Scott: 46 strokes gained
Matt Kuchar: 44 strokes gained
Bill Haas: 44 strokes gained
Justin Rose: 44 strokes gained
Sergio Garcia: 42 strokes gained
Hunter Mahan: 41 strokes gained


One-and-Done: DJ has seven top 10s here since 2009, including a win in 2017. It's Bubba that will draw the attention of gamers as he's won three times here in his last five visits. However, none of his other nine trips to The Riv have yielded top-10 finishes. In a perfect world, someone like Holmes, Furyk, or Bradley will arrive in good form. That way we can avoid the high OAD ownership on Bubba but also have a good shot at picking up a top 5. 






WGC-Mexico Championship
Course: Club de Golf Chapultepec

Most Strokes Gained at the WGC-Mexico Championship since 2017: 


Justin Thomas
: 35 strokes gained
Dustin Johnson: 34 strokes gained
Phil Mickelson: 34 strokes gained
Tyrrell Hatton: 32 strokes gained
Tommy Fleetwood: 29 strokes gained
Sergio Garcia: 27 strokes gained
Jon Rahm: 26 strokes gained
Rafa Cabrera Bello: 23 strokes gained
Jordan Spieth: 23 strokes gained
Paul Casey: 23 strokes gained
Daniel Berger: 22 strokes gained
Thomas Pieters: 20 strokes gained
Ross Fisher: 20 strokes gained
Kevin Kisner: 19 strokes gained
Bubba Watson: 18 strokes gained
Francesco Molinari: 18 strokes gained
Matthew Fitzpatrick: 16 strokes gained
Kiradech Aphibarnrat: 15 strokes gained
Brian Harman: 15 strokes gained
Brandt Snedeker: 15 strokes gained


One-and-Done: We have just two years of data to work with here so we shouldn't put too much weight into this list. Still, with JT and DJ as #s 1 and 2, it's clear that distance can be a big advantage here, even with the high altitude shrinking this course. This will likely be a good spot to use a Euro Tour transplant like Hatton, Fleetwood, or RCB. They won't have much history elsewhere throughout the year. Maybe even Barnrat if you want to go "off the board" a little. 






Puerto Rico Open
Course: Coco Beach Golf & Country Club

Most Strokes Gained at Coco Beach since 2008: 


Scott Brown
: 43 strokes gained
Boo Weekley: 37 strokes gained
George McNeill: 36 strokes gained
Michael Bradley: 30 strokes gained
David Hearn: 27 strokes gained
Jerry Kelly: 26 strokes gained
Chris Stroud: 26 strokes gained
Kevin Stadler: 23 strokes gained
Graham DeLaet: 23 strokes gained
Sam Saunders: 21 strokes gained
Martin Flores: 19 strokes gained
Fabian Gomez: 19 strokes gained
Brendon de Jonge: 19 strokes gained
Will MacKenzie: 18 strokes gained
Retief Goosen: 17 strokes gained
Chesson Hadley: 17 strokes gained
Henrik Stenson: 17 strokes gained
Michael Thompson: 17 strokes gained
Jonathan Byrd: 16 strokes gained
Bill Lunde: 16 strokes gained


One-and-Done: As an alternate-field event, this is not a good event to have loads of history on your side. As we often see in these type of events, most "in-form" golfers will arrive with little or no history while "course horses" will usually arrive with poor form in their corner. With the paspalum greens, this is a good event to target those who excel on grainy greens. Someone like Sam Burns might be a good breakout pick here. If Sam Saunders or Chesson Hadley enter with some good early-year results then they would both be on my radar. 





The Honda Classic
Course: PGA National's Champion Course

Most Strokes Gained at PGA National since 2009: 


Graeme Mcdowell: 70 strokes gained
Rickie Fowler: 66 strokes gained
Sergio Garcia: 60 strokes gained
Lee Westwood: 53 strokes gained
Freddie Jacobson: 51 strokes gained
Jason Dufner: 47 strokes gained
Sean O'Hair: 47 strokes gained
Jeff Overton: 46 strokes gained
Y.E. Yang: 44 strokes gained
Charles Howell III: 43 strokes gained
Russell Henley: 42 strokes gained
Luke Donald: 42 strokes gained
Tiger Woods: 41 strokes gained
Stewart Cink: 41 strokes gained
George McNeill: 40 strokes gained
Paul Casey: 40 strokes gained
Rory Sabbatini: 39 strokes gained
Rory Mcilroy: 38 strokes gained
Ryan Palmer: 37 strokes gained
Adam Scott: 36 strokes gained


One-and-Done: This is where the Florida residents start to litter the leaderboard. That includes G-Mac who has finished T14 or better in five of his last eight trips to PGA National. He will need to show a bit of early-season form to get our full confidence. You don't need distance here, so it's a good place to opt for some elite iron players and/or short-game specialists. 






Arnold Palmer Invitational
Courses: Bay Hill Club and Lodge

Most Strokes Gained at Bay Hill since 2009: 


Henrik Stenson
: 90 strokes gained
Justin Rose: 78 strokes gained
Tiger Woods: 74 strokes gained
Zach Johnson: 70 strokes gained
Kevin Na: 70 strokes gained
Francesco Molinari: 63 strokes gained
Marc Leishman: 63 strokes gained
Charles Howell III: 62 strokes gained
Sean O'Hair: 59 strokes gained
Rory Mcilroy: 57 strokes gained
Ian Poulter: 57 strokes gained
Jason Day: 55 strokes gained
Keegan Bradley: 50 strokes gained
Rickie Fowler: 48 strokes gained
Kevin Chappell: 45 strokes gained
Matt Every: 44 strokes gained
Graeme Mcdowell: 40 strokes gained
Ryan Moore: 39 strokes gained
Lucas Glover: 38 strokes gained
Martin Laird: 37 strokes gained


One-and-Done: Staying in Florida, the locals continue to crush it here. Bay Hill does provide a bit more opportunity for big hitters to separate themselves, compared to last week's Honda Classic. This is the spot to go after Stenson who has six top 15s in his last seven visits to Bay Hill. Five of those were 8th place or better. 






THE PLAYERS Championship
Courses: TPC Sawgrass

Most Strokes Gained at TPC Sawgrass since 2009: 


Matt Kuchar
: 82 strokes gained
Zach Johnson: 81 strokes gained
Sergio Garcia: 80 strokes gained
Adam Scott: 80 strokes gained
Henrik Stenson: 68 strokes gained
Ian Poulter: 66 strokes gained
Martin Kaymer: 63 strokes gained
Francesco Molinari: 58 strokes gained
Steve Stricker: 58 strokes gained
Jason Day: 57 strokes gained
Justin Rose: 54 strokes gained
Kevin Na: 53 strokes gained
Rory Mcilroy: 52 strokes gained
Tiger Woods: 51 strokes gained
Jimmy Walker: 50 strokes gained
Jim Furyk: 50 strokes gained
Charley Hoffman: 49 strokes gained
Luke Donald: 48 strokes gained
Jason Dufner: 46 strokes gained
K.J. Choi: 46 strokes gained


One-and-Done: Returning to March for the first time since 2006. That means overseeded grasses and likely some changes in the weather conditions. That may shake up the course horses just a bit, but overall this is a venue that doesn't lend itself to consistent results. With water lurking everywhere, one or two mishaps can ruin your whole week. There are only two Americans inside the top 8 on this list, so it might be a good week to fire at some European Tour talent. 


That does it for part one of the Course History Guide. Check back soon for Parts 2 and 3. 






Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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