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Course History Guide Part 3

Friday, December 28, 2018


This is the third and final leg of the Course History Guide. 

In PART ONE, I looked at the events taking place in the Winter. 

In PART TWO, I looked at the Spring schedule. Now it's time for the third segment of the season. 

As a reminder, these lists will look at the most strokes gained at each course/event over the last 10 years. The numbers are adjusted to the strength of field which explains why the SG:Total number will differ from the raw totals if you are comparing to the PGA TOUR stat leaderboards. 

The idea is to quickly filter out some course horses. When each event rolls around you should also factor in current form. 

Now let's look at the Summer Schedule ...

Travelers Championship
Course: TPC River Highlands

Most Strokes Gained at River Highlands since 2009: 


Bubba Watson: 96 strokes gained
Charley Hoffman: 70 strokes gained
Ryan Moore: 69 strokes gained
Chris Stroud: 57 strokes gained
Brendan Steele: 54 strokes gained
Paul Casey: 52 strokes gained
Marc Leishman: 51 strokes gained
Brian Harman: 50 strokes gained
Keegan Bradley: 47 strokes gained
Webb Simpson: 43 strokes gained
Bo Van Pelt: 43 strokes gained
Kevin Streelman: 42 strokes gained
J.J. Henry: 38 strokes gained
Hunter Mahan: 37 strokes gained
Freddie Jacobson: 37 strokes gained
Zach Johnson: 37 strokes gained
Patrick Reed: 36 strokes gained
John Merrick: 35 strokes gained
Patrick Rodgers: 35 strokes gained
Brandt Snedeker: 31 strokes gained



One-and-Done: It's another "Bubba Track" as many like to say. Leishman is a Virginia man so he's comfy in the region. 





Rocket Mortgage Classic
Course: Detroit Golf Club

One-and-Done: A new event on a new course, in terms of the course seeing PGA TOUR action. This has a $7.3 million purse which is right in line with the 2019 median purse of $7.4 million. Given the title sponsor, we can expect to see Rickie Fowler headlining the field so that is an option if you don't want to use him at a bigger event. Other than that, I would look for golfers with comfort in the Northern States or even a Canadian here. 





3M Open
Course: TPC Twin Cities

One-and-Done: It's back-to-back new events with new courses to look at. This one takes part in my backyard, here in Minnesota. Similar to the Rocket Mortgage Classic, I would again look for golfers that are comfortable in the Northern climate. Or a midwesterner like Steve Stricker/Zach Johnson





John Deere Classic

Course: TPC Deere Run

Most Strokes Gained at Deere Run since 2009: 


Zach Johnson: 108 strokes gained
Steve Stricker: 101 strokes gained
Chad Campbell: 55 strokes gained
Scott Brown: 54 strokes gained
Ryan Moore: 52 strokes gained
Johnson Wagner: 42 strokes gained
J.J. Henry: 41 strokes gained
Jordan Spieth: 40 strokes gained
Brian Harman: 35 strokes gained
Matt Jones: 35 strokes gained
Jerry Kelly: 35 strokes gained
Charles Howell III: 34 strokes gained
Kevin Streelman: 33 strokes gained
Robert Garrigus: 33 strokes gained
Chris Stroud: 30 strokes gained
Kyle Stanley: 29 strokes gained
Patrick Rodgers: 28 strokes gained
Vaughn Taylor: 27 strokes gained
Jason Bohn: 26 strokes gained
Scott Piercy: 26 strokes gained



One-and-Done: This kind of dominance just isn't fair. ZJ and Stricker have dominated this Midwest event. A big part of that is there aren't many top-tier talents that make the annual stop here, so they start each week with a big talent gap over a majority of the field, on top of their Midwest connection. 





The Open Championship
Course: Royal Portrush Golf Club

Top-20 Finishers at the 2012 Irish Open: 


Jamie Donaldson
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Anthony Wall
Fabrizio Zanotti
Mark Foster
Mikael Lundberg
David Drysdale
Padraig Harrington
Craig Lee
Simon Dyson
Ross Fisher
Mikko Ilonen
Rory McIlroy
Francesco Molinari
Paul Waring
Graeme McDowell
Richie Ramsay
Richard Bland
Edouard Dubois
Thongchai Jaidee
Thorbjorn Olesen
Gary Orr
Matthew Zions


Most Strokes Gained at The Open Championship since 2009: 


Adam Scott: 104 strokes gained
Henrik Stenson: 101 strokes gained
Sergio Garcia: 94 strokes gained
Zach Johnson: 92 strokes gained
Rory Mcilroy: 92 strokes gained
Phil Mickelson: 89 strokes gained
Rickie Fowler: 81 strokes gained
Lee Westwood: 77 strokes gained
Dustin Johnson: 74 strokes gained
Jordan Spieth: 73 strokes gained
Francesco Molinari: 68 strokes gained
Justin Rose: 68 strokes gained
Matt Kuchar: 67 strokes gained
Jason Day: 64 strokes gained
Charl Schwartzel: 62 strokes gained
Martin Kaymer: 60 strokes gained
Marc Leishman: 59 strokes gained
Miguel Angel Jimenez: 56 strokes gained
Louis Oosthuizen: 54 strokes gained
Graeme Mcdowell: 54 strokes gained



One-and-Done: The 2012 Irish Open is the only data we have to work with when it comes to course history. Given the strength of field differences and motivation factors of MAJOR versus REGULAR EVENT, I would take those results with a grain of salt. I've also included the most strokes gained at The Open Championship since 2009. This should provide a much-better list of targets since Royal Portrush should play like a traditional links layout. Rory McIlroy will certainly be popular as he said this in 2015 about the layout, "I never thought I would be able to play an Open Championship at home. I’m really excited." 





Barbasol Championship
Course: Keene Trace Golf Club

Most Strokes Gained at Keene Trace since 2017: 


Troy Merritt: 15 strokes gained
Billy Horschel: 14 strokes gained
Tom Lovelady: 14 strokes gained
Richy Werenski: 14 strokes gained
J.T. Poston: 13 strokes gained
Brian Gay: 12 strokes gained
Hunter Mahan: 11 strokes gained
Cameron Percy: 11 strokes gained
Sam Ryder: 11 strokes gained
Robert Streb: 10 strokes gained
Steve Wheatcroft: 10 strokes gained
Blayne Barber: 9 strokes gained
William McGirt: 9 strokes gained
Ben Silverman: 9 strokes gained
Zac Blair: 8 strokes gained
Joel Dahmen: 8 strokes gained
Fabian Gomez: 8 strokes gained
J.J. Henry: 8 strokes gained
David Lingmerth: 8 strokes gained
Conrad Shindler: 8 strokes gained



One-and-Done: Keene Trace made its debut last year and it was Troy Merritt who walked away with the hardware during a waterlogged week. Anyone that shows up on the list above should be given a slight boost but this is a good week to ride a hot hand and not put too much emphasis on last year's leaderboard. 






WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
Course: TPC Southwind

Most Strokes Gained at TPC Southwind since 2009: 


Phil Mickelson: 72 strokes gained
Dustin Johnson: 65 strokes gained
Retief Goosen: 53 strokes gained
Camilo Villegas: 51 strokes gained
Ben Crane: 50 strokes gained
Brooks Koepka: 50 strokes gained
Scott Stallings: 41 strokes gained
Seung-Yul Noh: 40 strokes gained
Chez Reavie: 38 strokes gained
Boo Weekley: 38 strokes gained
Fabian Gomez: 37 strokes gained
Brian Gay: 37 strokes gained
Charles Howell III: 37 strokes gained
Billy Horschel: 35 strokes gained
Chad Campbell: 35 strokes gained
Daniel Berger: 34 strokes gained
Harris English: 34 strokes gained
Robert Allenby: 33 strokes gained
David Hearn: 31 strokes gained
Stewart Cink: 31 strokes gained



One-and-Done: As a two-time course champ it will be Berger that draws a lot of headlines (if he qualifies) but he doesn't have the quantity of results to stack up with guys like Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson. This might be a good spot to use Brooks Koepka, if you don't trot him out at a major championship. 





Barracuda Championship
Course: Montreux Golf & Country Club

Career Money Leaders for the Barracuda: 

J.J. Henry
Vaughn Taylor
Steve Flesch
John Rollins
Gary Woodland
Jonathan Kaye
John Cook
Chris Riley
Chris Stroud
Greg Chalmers
Tim Herron
Will MacKenzie
Martin Laird
Andrew Putnam
Kirk Triplett
Matt Bettencourt
Rod Pampling
Parker McLachlin
Geoff Ogilvy
Jonathan Byrd



One-and-Done:
 It's a Stableford event so we don't have strokes-gained data to lean on. Instead, we can look at the top money winners over the tournament's history. Someone like Martin Laird is always appealing because he spent years in Colorida so he knows how to handle mountain golf. 




Wyndham Championship

Course: Sedgefield Country Club

Most Strokes Gained at Sedgefield since 2009: 


Webb Simpson: 84 strokes gained
Bill Haas: 66 strokes gained
Brandt Snedeker: 59 strokes gained
Ryan Moore: 48 strokes gained
Sergio Garcia: 39 strokes gained
Camilo Villegas: 39 strokes gained
Harris English: 36 strokes gained
Johnson Wagner: 35 strokes gained
Billy Horschel: 35 strokes gained
Lucas Glover: 34 strokes gained
Justin Leonard: 34 strokes gained
Davis Love III: 33 strokes gained
Hideki Matsuyama: 33 strokes gained
Jerry Kelly: 33 strokes gained
Jim Furyk: 33 strokes gained
Tim Clark: 31 strokes gained
Freddie Jacobson: 31 strokes gained
Kevin Na: 30 strokes gained
Jason Dufner: 29 strokes gained
Kevin Kisner: 29 strokes gained



One-and-Done: One of the many courses that Webb Simpson considers a "home game". Plenty of others with Carolina ties show up on the list above. That is a good place to start but comfort in the South in general is another route to take. They've added an end-of-season bonus this year so it will be interesting to see if the field strength gets any kind of bump in 2019. 






THE NORTHERN TRUST
Course: Liberty National Golf Club

Most Strokes Gained at Liberty National since 2009: 


Tiger Woods: 29 strokes gained
Nick Watney: 26 strokes gained
Jim Furyk: 23 strokes gained
Webb Simpson: 23 strokes gained
Freddie Jacobson: 20 strokes gained
Justin Rose: 19 strokes gained
D.A. Points: 19 strokes gained
Jason Day: 19 strokes gained
Adam Scott: 17 strokes gained
Hunter Mahan: 17 strokes gained
Matt Kuchar: 16 strokes gained
Bill Haas: 16 strokes gained
Phil Mickelson: 16 strokes gained
Graham DeLaet: 15 strokes gained
Gary Woodland: 15 strokes gained
Brian Gay: 15 strokes gained
Heath Slocum: 15 strokes gained
Padraig Harrington: 14 strokes gained
Steve Stricker: 14 strokes gained
Matt Every: 13 strokes gained



One-and-Done: Tiger has finished runner-up in two appearances here so this is a good spot to use him if you've managed to avoid him so far and he commits to playing here. It should be noted that it's just a two-week sample size at Liberty National. 






BMW Championship
Course: Medinah Country Club (No. 3)

One-and-Done:
 No stroke-play events at Medinah since the 2006 PGA Championship. It's fun to note that Tiger Woods won the 1999 PGA Championship AND the 2006 PGA Championship at Medinah but those were both so long ago. As we've seen plenty of during the Summer, another great week for golfers comfortable in the MIDWEST. 






TOUR Championship
Course: East Lake Golf Club

Most Strokes Gained at East Lake since 2009: 


Justin Rose: 87 strokes gained
Jason Day: 68 strokes gained
Dustin Johnson: 66 strokes gained
Paul Casey: 63 strokes gained
Rory Mcilroy: 61 strokes gained
Jim Furyk: 56 strokes gained
Matt Kuchar: 53 strokes gained
Webb Simpson: 50 strokes gained
Gary Woodland: 46 strokes gained
Jordan Spieth: 45 strokes gained
Billy Horschel: 44 strokes gained
Bubba Watson: 43 strokes gained
Zach Johnson: 43 strokes gained
Tiger Woods: 43 strokes gained
Luke Donald: 42 strokes gained
Adam Scott: 42 strokes gained
Phil Mickelson: 39 strokes gained
Sergio Garcia: 39 strokes gained
Ryan Moore: 39 strokes gained
Justin Thomas: 38 strokes gained



One-and-Done: Many One-and-Done leagues will end before the TOUR Championship, given the new format of the Playoff finale. 




That does it for the Course History Guide.

In case you missed it, here is the link for Part 1 of the Course History Guide

Here is Part 2 of the Course History Guide






Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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