Guys to Remember in '08
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
This week I'll discuss some guys who are on my radar for next year's
draft. Then I'll debate with some emailers on the topic of drafting
hitters early.
Thanks to all of you for tuning into OTBS this season. I had a lot of
fun, as always. See you in April!
Topic of the Week: Guys to Remember in
'08
I don't know about you, but at the end of every season I make a mental
list of guys to remember for the following year's draft. Of course, by the
time the season rolls around, some of those names have escaped me…that is
until someone else shouts them out on draft day. So, with that in mind,
I'm writing my list down this time. That way, we can both refer back to it
later.
Wily Mo Pena – David Ortiz is on record as saying Wily Mo is going to be
just like Big Papi once he gets enough at bats to figure out the curveball.
How's that for an endorsement? Based on his performance since the trade
to Washington, it seems Wily is determined to prove him right. In 118 at
bats with the Nationals, he is hitting .295 with eight long balls. Expect
Pena to start next year, and expect him to provide value. If 2008 turns
out to be his "breakout" season, he'll be the steal of the draft.
Jacoby Ellsbury – The first Native American of Navajo descent to make
the major leagues, Ellsbury is a fantasy goldmine waiting to happen—mainly
because of his Randy Moss type speed. I've watched him beat out seemingly
routine grounders and take second base off a pickoff attempt at first. He
has the potential to swipe 50 bases under the right circumstances. But
what sets him apart from the Scott Podsedniks is that Ellsbury can also hit
for average—he posted a .313 AVG in three seasons in the minors—and provide
some pop as well. The only question is, when will he have a full-time gig?
Rick Ankiel – We all know this amazing roller coaster of a story. Who
knows what major development lies around the corner with this guy. What's
important from a fantasy standpoint is that the former pitching phenom can
truly mash. If we didn't know about the crazy control issues that led him
to step down from the mound, you'd think he was inspired by that classic
"Chicks dig the longball" commercial with Greg Maddux and Tommy Glavine.
Between the majors and minors this year, Ankiel has 42 round trippers. The
question is, how much of those can be attributed to HGH? If he comes back
next year with an IRod-type shrinkage, steer clear. If, on the other hand,
he can still be mistaken for Mark McGwire from a distance, draft away.
Jason Kubel – After some injury plagued seasons, Kubel has come on
strong in the second half of this season, hitting .298 with six HR in 168
AB. He could finally fulfill his potential next season.
Nate McLouth – He doesn't hit for much of an average, but he can steal
you bases and provide a little pop to boot. Who ever knows what's going to
happen in Pittsburgh, but McLouth will have nice fantasy value if given the
playing time.
James Loney – The Dodgers' first baseman finished extremely strong with
eight dingers and 33 RBI over the last month. On the season, he's hit .335
with 15 HR in 325 AB. The power is somewhat surprising, as he didn't show
much pop before being called up. Then again, despite playing in the minors
since 2002, the kid is just 23 years old. One thing we know for sure is
that he can hit for average. Last year he batted .380 for Triple-A Las
Vegas en route to winning the Dodgers' Minor League Player of the
Year honors.
Kevin Kouzmanoff – Due to a terrible April, Kouzmanoff's totals aren't
all that impressive. Consider, however, that he hit .330 with 10 HR after
the break. He'll likely be undervalued going into next season.
Yovani Gallardo – After a great start to his major-league career,
Gallardo stumbled for a couple of outings in August—amazingly left in to
allow 18 earned runs over two starts. Over the last month, though, he has
been dominant to the tune of a 1.03 ERA. This kid destroyed minor-league
hitting and could be an elite fantasy starter as soon as next year.
Clay Buchholz – So far, Buchholz has lived up to they hype, posting a
1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 22 strikeouts in 22.1 IP for the Red Sox. His
no-hitter proved that he can certainly handle the pressure of the Bigs.
Over three seasons in the minors, Buchholz posted a 2.46 ERA and 11.23 Ks
per nine innings. If he can crack the Sox rotation next season, he'll be a
draft-day deal.
Dustin McGowan – Another young arm who seems to be hitting stride,
McGowan showed flashes of brilliance down the stretch…like when he whiffed
12 batters against the Devil Rays and nine against the Red Sox. Over the
last month, he managed a 3.67 ERA and a fantastic 1.02 WHIP to go along
with 35 Ks in 34 IP.
The Trash Dump
To submit a question or comment to the Trash Dump, email jgangi@rotoworld.com.
Gangi, what kind of league do you play in where Orlando Hudson was
among the top 50 hitters at the start of the season? Was Freddy Sanchez in
your top 10? Was Jack Wilson the league's MVP?
- Dennis
Totally. What makes no sense is that Hudson's numbers this season are
pretty comparable to last year's, yet he's ranked 208 overall now versus 63
in the preseason. You know how it goes with these rankings, though…they
often make less sense than Premonition.
I agree 100% about drafting hitters. I am leading my league because I
have almost a perfect score in the hitting categories, while I am in the
middle of the pack in the pitching categories. Starting pitching is a crap
shoot. Who could have predicted that Tom Gorzelanny would outperform Scott
Olsen or Anibal Sanchez? As for the guy with all the transactions, instead
of limiting the number of transactions, how about making people pay extra
for each transaction over a designated amount? We put in that rule two
years ago, after one particular owner went nuts, basically turning over
about half of his pitching staff every few days.
- Tom H
Good idea, so long as you can get all of the owners to agree to it.
I totally agree with you about taking hitters early. I was in an
auction last year, and while big name pitchers were going for $25 - $30 or
more, I waited until everyone had spent their pitching budget and got Peavy
and Haren for less than $15 each.
- Rob
Peavy for less than $15? I know he was coming off a down year, but
still!
Love the column, but I think there's a converse to your argument
about batters holding their value better. I had the top pick in a 16-team
snake-style draft this year. I took Pujols first, who to me did not hold
his value even if he's top 50, and took Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb on the
turn in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Fast-forward to Sunday night and I won my
championship. I felt like those two pitchers were sure things for high K,
low ERA/WHIP, and high innings-pitched seasons. They were, and with a solid
supporting cast of waiver wire guys in the rest of the rotation, I pretty
much won those three categories every week. If sure things are hard to
find at pitcher than the few who are up there are all the more valuable.
Hence the reason for drafting them early comes from the old business
refrain about supply and demand. With such a small supply of sure things at
the position, and equal demand, snagging one early can grant a sizable
advantage down the road.
- Adi
Yes, but picking the pitchers who will "hold their value" is a lot more
difficult than picking the hitters who will. Your guys Peavy and Webb
lived up to expectations, as did Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, and C.C.
Sabathia. However, Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Carlos Zambrano, Felix
Hernandez, Rich Hill, Ben Sheets, John Maine, Matt Cain, Daisuke Matsuzaka,
Jered Weaver, Jeremy Bonderman, and of course Rich Harden and Chris
Carpenter all fell short to varying degrees. By contrast, the only top
hitters whose numbers were significantly sub par were Manny Ramirez and
Travis Hafner.
In a roto league, yes you probably have a point {about drafting
hitters early}. However, in a head-to-head league, I think there is
definitely a benefit to drafting pitching early. The benefit of top
pitchers is that their starts for the most part are pretty consistent, they
don't have too many blow ups. In a head to head league where your match-up
lasts one week, one or two blow ups can kill you. I grabbed Peavy, Webb,
Hamels, and Hill early in my draft and then traded for Beckett early in the
season and my pitching has carried me into the championship match-up in my
league.
- Glenn
If it works for you…but again, you were fortunate enough to get the
starters that did pan out. Personally, I plan to stock up on hitting next
year to dominate those categories then just pick up two-start pitchers each
week to secure Ks and Ws.
This week I'll discuss some guys who are on my radar for next year's
draft. Then I'll debate with some emailers on the topic of drafting
hitters early.
Thanks to all of you for tuning into OTBS this season. I had a lot of
fun, as always. See you in April!
Topic of the Week: Guys to Remember in
'08
I don't know about you, but at the end of every season I make a mental
list of guys to remember for the following year's draft. Of course, by the
time the season rolls around, some of those names have escaped me…that is
until someone else shouts them out on draft day. So, with that in mind,
I'm writing my list down this time. That way, we can both refer back to it
later.
Wily Mo Pena – David Ortiz is on record as saying Wily Mo is going to be
just like Big Papi once he gets enough at bats to figure out the curveball.
How's that for an endorsement? Based on his performance since the trade
to Washington, it seems Wily is determined to prove him right. In 118 at
bats with the Nationals, he is hitting .295 with eight long balls. Expect
Pena to start next year, and expect him to provide value. If 2008 turns
out to be his "breakout" season, he'll be the steal of the draft.
Jacoby Ellsbury – The first Native American of Navajo descent to make
the major leagues, Ellsbury is a fantasy goldmine waiting to happen—mainly
because of his Randy Moss type speed. I've watched him beat out seemingly
routine grounders and take second base off a pickoff attempt at first. He
has the potential to swipe 50 bases under the right circumstances. But
what sets him apart from the Scott Podsedniks is that Ellsbury can also hit
for average—he posted a .313 AVG in three seasons in the minors—and provide
some pop as well. The only question is, when will he have a full-time gig?
Rick Ankiel – We all know this amazing roller coaster of a story. Who
knows what major development lies around the corner with this guy. What's
important from a fantasy standpoint is that the former pitching phenom can
truly mash. If we didn't know about the crazy control issues that led him
to step down from the mound, you'd think he was inspired by that classic
"Chicks dig the longball" commercial with Greg Maddux and Tommy Glavine.
Between the majors and minors this year, Ankiel has 42 round trippers. The
question is, how much of those can be attributed to HGH? If he comes back
next year with an IRod-type shrinkage, steer clear. If, on the other hand,
he can still be mistaken for Mark McGwire from a distance, draft away.
Jason Kubel – After some injury plagued seasons, Kubel has come on
strong in the second half of this season, hitting .298 with six HR in 168
AB. He could finally fulfill his potential next season.
Nate McLouth – He doesn't hit for much of an average, but he can steal
you bases and provide a little pop to boot. Who ever knows what's going to
happen in Pittsburgh, but McLouth will have nice fantasy value if given the
playing time.
James Loney – The Dodgers' first baseman finished extremely strong with
eight dingers and 33 RBI over the last month. On the season, he's hit .335
with 15 HR in 325 AB. The power is somewhat surprising, as he didn't show
much pop before being called up. Then again, despite playing in the minors
since 2002, the kid is just 23 years old. One thing we know for sure is
that he can hit for average. Last year he batted .380 for Triple-A Las
Vegas en route to winning the Dodgers' Minor League Player of the
Year honors.
Kevin Kouzmanoff – Due to a terrible April, Kouzmanoff's totals aren't
all that impressive. Consider, however, that he hit .330 with 10 HR after
the break. He'll likely be undervalued going into next season.
Yovani Gallardo – After a great start to his major-league career,
Gallardo stumbled for a couple of outings in August—amazingly left in to
allow 18 earned runs over two starts. Over the last month, though, he has
been dominant to the tune of a 1.03 ERA. This kid destroyed minor-league
hitting and could be an elite fantasy starter as soon as next year.
Clay Buchholz – So far, Buchholz has lived up to they hype, posting a
1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 22 strikeouts in 22.1 IP for the Red Sox. His
no-hitter proved that he can certainly handle the pressure of the Bigs.
Over three seasons in the minors, Buchholz posted a 2.46 ERA and 11.23 Ks
per nine innings. If he can crack the Sox rotation next season, he'll be a
draft-day deal.
Dustin McGowan – Another young arm who seems to be hitting stride,
McGowan showed flashes of brilliance down the stretch…like when he whiffed
12 batters against the Devil Rays and nine against the Red Sox. Over the
last month, he managed a 3.67 ERA and a fantastic 1.02 WHIP to go along
with 35 Ks in 34 IP.
The Trash Dump
To submit a question or comment to the Trash Dump, email jgangi@rotoworld.com.
Gangi, what kind of league do you play in where Orlando Hudson was
among the top 50 hitters at the start of the season? Was Freddy Sanchez in
your top 10? Was Jack Wilson the league's MVP?
- Dennis
Totally. What makes no sense is that Hudson's numbers this season are
pretty comparable to last year's, yet he's ranked 208 overall now versus 63
in the preseason. You know how it goes with these rankings, though…they
often make less sense than Premonition.
I agree 100% about drafting hitters. I am leading my league because I
have almost a perfect score in the hitting categories, while I am in the
middle of the pack in the pitching categories. Starting pitching is a crap
shoot. Who could have predicted that Tom Gorzelanny would outperform Scott
Olsen or Anibal Sanchez? As for the guy with all the transactions, instead
of limiting the number of transactions, how about making people pay extra
for each transaction over a designated amount? We put in that rule two
years ago, after one particular owner went nuts, basically turning over
about half of his pitching staff every few days.
- Tom H
Good idea, so long as you can get all of the owners to agree to it.
I totally agree with you about taking hitters early. I was in an
auction last year, and while big name pitchers were going for $25 - $30 or
more, I waited until everyone had spent their pitching budget and got Peavy
and Haren for less than $15 each.
- Rob
Peavy for less than $15? I know he was coming off a down year, but
still!
Love the column, but I think there's a converse to your argument
about batters holding their value better. I had the top pick in a 16-team
snake-style draft this year. I took Pujols first, who to me did not hold
his value even if he's top 50, and took Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb on the
turn in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Fast-forward to Sunday night and I won my
championship. I felt like those two pitchers were sure things for high K,
low ERA/WHIP, and high innings-pitched seasons. They were, and with a solid
supporting cast of waiver wire guys in the rest of the rotation, I pretty
much won those three categories every week. If sure things are hard to
find at pitcher than the few who are up there are all the more valuable.
Hence the reason for drafting them early comes from the old business
refrain about supply and demand. With such a small supply of sure things at
the position, and equal demand, snagging one early can grant a sizable
advantage down the road.
- Adi
Yes, but picking the pitchers who will "hold their value" is a lot more
difficult than picking the hitters who will. Your guys Peavy and Webb
lived up to expectations, as did Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, and C.C.
Sabathia. However, Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Carlos Zambrano, Felix
Hernandez, Rich Hill, Ben Sheets, John Maine, Matt Cain, Daisuke Matsuzaka,
Jered Weaver, Jeremy Bonderman, and of course Rich Harden and Chris
Carpenter all fell short to varying degrees. By contrast, the only top
hitters whose numbers were significantly sub par were Manny Ramirez and
Travis Hafner.
In a roto league, yes you probably have a point {about drafting
hitters early}. However, in a head-to-head league, I think there is
definitely a benefit to drafting pitching early. The benefit of top
pitchers is that their starts for the most part are pretty consistent, they
don't have too many blow ups. In a head to head league where your match-up
lasts one week, one or two blow ups can kill you. I grabbed Peavy, Webb,
Hamels, and Hill early in my draft and then traded for Beckett early in the
season and my pitching has carried me into the championship match-up in my
league.
- Glenn
If it works for you…but again, you were fortunate enough to get the
starters that did pan out. Personally, I plan to stock up on hitting next
year to dominate those categories then just pick up two-start pitchers each
week to secure Ks and Ws.