Non-Tenders & Trade Talk

Notes column this week.

Trade Talk

Despite a monster trade that seemed to come together and get executed in a 24-hour span, the winter meetings were definitely disappointing as far as the ratio of gossip and speculation to actual news. As a result, there are still plenty of star pitchers and quality regulars in play in trade talks. Let's run through a few of the names.

Johan Santana (Twins) - Rotoworld's new favorite player. Santana has set site records for most blurbs in a day (28 on Dec. 4), most blurbs in a year and most consecutive days with at least one blurb on the site (11/22-12/8). We probably would have set a traffic record last week anyway -- the winter meetings have traditionally been our busiest time of the year, as football and the other sports are generating plenty of hits, too -- but thanks in no small part to Santana (the front offices of the Twins, Red Sox and Yankees deserve plenty of credit as well) we received about twice as many page views as we did a year ago.

While nothing ended up happening with Boston or any other team last week, the consensus is that Santana will be traded. The Twins can talk about reopening negotiations, but if they didn't present their absolute best offer before making Santana available for all the world to bid on, they're crazy. The Red Sox probably won't budge from including more than one of the big three (Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury or Jon Lester), but there is some room for flexibility there. It helps that the Twins seem particularly high on Lester, the one of the three the Red Sox are the most willing to give up. The Red Sox seem to still be the favorites here. However, it's no better than a 50/50 proposition now after looking more like 80/20 for a time last week.

No one seems to buy the New York Daily News report that the Yankees turned down the chance to get Santana for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, a decent arm in Jeff Marquis and a lesser infield prospect in Mitch Hilligoss. If the Twins decide that it's the Hughes-Cabrera package they want over everything else that's been offered, it'll likely be back out on the table for them. The Mets are running third in this race with no major league-ready pitching stud to offer. Mike Pelfrey's stock has tumbled, and Kevin Mulvey isn't going to be a No. 1 or a No. 2. Deolis Guerra is the Mets' best pitching prospect, though he had some shoulder trouble last season and his name hasn't come up often. If the Mets were willing to give up both Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez, plus two from the Pelfrey-Mulvey-Guerra group, it really should be plenty to buy one year of Santana. More likely, the Mets will insist on keeping one of the two outfielders, leaving them without enough to tempt the Twins.

Unless something happens this week, odds are that talks will linger into January, increasing the chances that a surprise contender will emerge. It's more likely to be the Angels than the Dodgers or Mariners. I'm guessing the matter won't be settled until after New Year's Day.

Erik Bedard (Orioles) - More affordable than Santana when it comes to salary, if not in terms of the prospects it'd take to acquire him, Bedard has about a dozen suitors. Unfortunately, the Orioles seem to have taken three of the better ones out of the mix, as owner Peter Angelos doesn't want his top pitcher moved within the division. It's a silly way of thinking, in my opinion -- Baltimore has no chance of overtaking the Red Sox or Yankees in the next couple of years, and taking away a large chunk of young talent from one of those teams could prove very beneficial by the time 2010 or 2011 rolls around -- but that's simply the new Oriole Way. Regardless of whether they have Bedard, the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays will still make Camden Yards their playground.

The other top bidders for Bedard appear to be the Mariners, Dodgers and Reds. The Mets have already been shot down at least once. Other candidates to be in the mix include the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Angels, Indians, Phillies and Cubs. It appears that Cincinnati is willing to part with Homer Bailey and a hitter not named Jay Bruce. Joey Votto is the logical candidate, though Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarnacion are also possibilities. That doesn't necessarily top a Dodgers package including either Matt Kemp or Clayton Kershaw, but it is very good. The Mariners would have to give up Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and maybe Wladimir Balentien. There's also been talk of George Sherrill, but he's a lot more valuable to a contending Mariners team than he would be to Baltimore's rebuilding effort. It looks like something will get done with one of the three teams. My guess would be Seattle.

Dan Haren & Joe Blanton (Athletics) - The Diamondbacks keep getting mentioned in connection with Haren, while things remain quiet on the Blanton front. A's GM Billy Beane has said the price for the two would be similar, but the truth is that Haren will be supremely expensive. Blanton is the better bet of the two to go, perhaps to the Mets or Dodgers. Blanton for Carlos Gomez would give the A's the center fielder they desire. Ideally, they could acquire Kemp for him instead, but that's unlikely to happen. Blanton to Milwaukee for Chris Capuano and Dave Bush would also make sense. The Brewers need quality more than quantity when it comes to starting pitching, and it would allow them to save a little money.

Miguel Tejada (Orioles) - Even though his contract is pretty affordable at $13 million per season through 2009, Tejada just isn't being valued as a top property by other teams in trade talks. Most teams see him as a third baseman, not a shortstop, and they say that his power production is on the decline. Tejada did deliver 10 homers in August, so it's not like he was completely impotent last season. Still, the perception of Camden Yards as a bandbox isn't helping things, and Tejada hit just a third of his 18 homers on the road last year. Tejada remains more likely than Brian Roberts to be traded, even though he might not net quite as much in return as the second baseman. There still might be something brewing with the Astros, who have Chris Burke, Adam Everett, Luke Scott and some young pitching to part with. They're one of the few teams that would use him at short. The Giants and Angels appear to be out of the bidding. What'd be fascinating would be to see him go back to Oakland, perhaps for Blanton and Bobby Crosby.

Brandon Inge (Tigers) - Is it worth trading for Inge, who is owed $19.1 million over three seasons, when Pedro Feliz could surely be had for less? The two are similar players. Both are tremendously underrated defensive third baseman -- Feliz is probably the best in the game right now, while Inge has more range than anyone else at the position -- with reputations as all or nothing hitters. Feliz delivers the "nothing" part of the equation more frequently. His career high in OBP is .305, and he's at .288 lifetime. Inge has been at .330, .313 and .312 the last three years. He was probably an above average regular in 2005 and 2006, when he hit 27 homers, but he lost much of his power and finished with a 688 OPS last season. I'd take Inge going forward, but he'd still only be worth acquiring if the Tigers picked up some of his contract. The Phillies and Dodgers have reportedly signaled to GM Dave Dombrowski that they're not interested. The Giants might be if they lose Feliz.

Notes column this week.

Trade Talk

Despite a monster trade that seemed to come together and get executed in a 24-hour span, the winter meetings were definitely disappointing as far as the ratio of gossip and speculation to actual news. As a result, there are still plenty of star pitchers and quality regulars in play in trade talks. Let's run through a few of the names.

Johan Santana (Twins) - Rotoworld's new favorite player. Santana has set site records for most blurbs in a day (28 on Dec. 4), most blurbs in a year and most consecutive days with at least one blurb on the site (11/22-12/8). We probably would have set a traffic record last week anyway -- the winter meetings have traditionally been our busiest time of the year, as football and the other sports are generating plenty of hits, too -- but thanks in no small part to Santana (the front offices of the Twins, Red Sox and Yankees deserve plenty of credit as well) we received about twice as many page views as we did a year ago.

While nothing ended up happening with Boston or any other team last week, the consensus is that Santana will be traded. The Twins can talk about reopening negotiations, but if they didn't present their absolute best offer before making Santana available for all the world to bid on, they're crazy. The Red Sox probably won't budge from including more than one of the big three (Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury or Jon Lester), but there is some room for flexibility there. It helps that the Twins seem particularly high on Lester, the one of the three the Red Sox are the most willing to give up. The Red Sox seem to still be the favorites here. However, it's no better than a 50/50 proposition now after looking more like 80/20 for a time last week.

No one seems to buy the New York Daily News report that the Yankees turned down the chance to get Santana for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, a decent arm in Jeff Marquis and a lesser infield prospect in Mitch Hilligoss. If the Twins decide that it's the Hughes-Cabrera package they want over everything else that's been offered, it'll likely be back out on the table for them. The Mets are running third in this race with no major league-ready pitching stud to offer. Mike Pelfrey's stock has tumbled, and Kevin Mulvey isn't going to be a No. 1 or a No. 2. Deolis Guerra is the Mets' best pitching prospect, though he had some shoulder trouble last season and his name hasn't come up often. If the Mets were willing to give up both Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez, plus two from the Pelfrey-Mulvey-Guerra group, it really should be plenty to buy one year of Santana. More likely, the Mets will insist on keeping one of the two outfielders, leaving them without enough to tempt the Twins.

Unless something happens this week, odds are that talks will linger into January, increasing the chances that a surprise contender will emerge. It's more likely to be the Angels than the Dodgers or Mariners. I'm guessing the matter won't be settled until after New Year's Day.

Erik Bedard (Orioles) - More affordable than Santana when it comes to salary, if not in terms of the prospects it'd take to acquire him, Bedard has about a dozen suitors. Unfortunately, the Orioles seem to have taken three of the better ones out of the mix, as owner Peter Angelos doesn't want his top pitcher moved within the division. It's a silly way of thinking, in my opinion -- Baltimore has no chance of overtaking the Red Sox or Yankees in the next couple of years, and taking away a large chunk of young talent from one of those teams could prove very beneficial by the time 2010 or 2011 rolls around -- but that's simply the new Oriole Way. Regardless of whether they have Bedard, the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays will still make Camden Yards their playground.

The other top bidders for Bedard appear to be the Mariners, Dodgers and Reds. The Mets have already been shot down at least once. Other candidates to be in the mix include the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Angels, Indians, Phillies and Cubs. It appears that Cincinnati is willing to part with Homer Bailey and a hitter not named Jay Bruce. Joey Votto is the logical candidate, though Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarnacion are also possibilities. That doesn't necessarily top a Dodgers package including either Matt Kemp or Clayton Kershaw, but it is very good. The Mariners would have to give up Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and maybe Wladimir Balentien. There's also been talk of George Sherrill, but he's a lot more valuable to a contending Mariners team than he would be to Baltimore's rebuilding effort. It looks like something will get done with one of the three teams. My guess would be Seattle.

Dan Haren & Joe Blanton (Athletics) - The Diamondbacks keep getting mentioned in connection with Haren, while things remain quiet on the Blanton front. A's GM Billy Beane has said the price for the two would be similar, but the truth is that Haren will be supremely expensive. Blanton is the better bet of the two to go, perhaps to the Mets or Dodgers. Blanton for Carlos Gomez would give the A's the center fielder they desire. Ideally, they could acquire Kemp for him instead, but that's unlikely to happen. Blanton to Milwaukee for Chris Capuano and Dave Bush would also make sense. The Brewers need quality more than quantity when it comes to starting pitching, and it would allow them to save a little money.

Miguel Tejada (Orioles) - Even though his contract is pretty affordable at $13 million per season through 2009, Tejada just isn't being valued as a top property by other teams in trade talks. Most teams see him as a third baseman, not a shortstop, and they say that his power production is on the decline. Tejada did deliver 10 homers in August, so it's not like he was completely impotent last season. Still, the perception of Camden Yards as a bandbox isn't helping things, and Tejada hit just a third of his 18 homers on the road last year. Tejada remains more likely than Brian Roberts to be traded, even though he might not net quite as much in return as the second baseman. There still might be something brewing with the Astros, who have Chris Burke, Adam Everett, Luke Scott and some young pitching to part with. They're one of the few teams that would use him at short. The Giants and Angels appear to be out of the bidding. What'd be fascinating would be to see him go back to Oakland, perhaps for Blanton and Bobby Crosby.

Brandon Inge (Tigers) - Is it worth trading for Inge, who is owed $19.1 million over three seasons, when Pedro Feliz could surely be had for less? The two are similar players. Both are tremendously underrated defensive third baseman -- Feliz is probably the best in the game right now, while Inge has more range than anyone else at the position -- with reputations as all or nothing hitters. Feliz delivers the "nothing" part of the equation more frequently. His career high in OBP is .305, and he's at .288 lifetime. Inge has been at .330, .313 and .312 the last three years. He was probably an above average regular in 2005 and 2006, when he hit 27 homers, but he lost much of his power and finished with a 688 OPS last season. I'd take Inge going forward, but he'd still only be worth acquiring if the Tigers picked up some of his contract. The Phillies and Dodgers have reportedly signaled to GM Dave Dombrowski that they're not interested. The Giants might be if they lose Feliz.


Potential Non-Tenders

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible non-tender candidates. There will also be some zero-to-three players non-tendered and then often re-signed to minor league deals, but picking them out of the crowd is a more difficult exercise. Wednesday is the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.

Likely: C Johnny Estrada (Mets), OF Craig Monroe (Twins), INF Felipe Lopez (Nationals), 3B Morgan Ensberg (Padres), OF Emil Brown (Royals), 1B Ben Broussard (Mariners), OF Kevin Mench (Brewers), C Miguel Olivo (Marlins), LHP Mark Hendrickson (Dodgers), LHP Horacio Ramirez (Mariners), LHP Neal Cotts (Cubs), OF Jason Lane (Padres), OF Cory Sullivan (Rockies), RHP Brendan Donnelly (Red Sox), LHP John Parrish (Mariners), LHP Wilfredo Ledezma (Padres), RHP Greg Aquino (Brewers), RHP Seth McClung (Brewers), RHP Grant Balfour (Rays), RHP Dave Borkowski (Astros), C Eric Munson (Brewers), RHP Brandon Duckworth (Royals), RHP Ryan Wagner (Nationals)

Of the first eight hitters on the list, Lopez and Brown probably have the best chances of survival. The Nationals are publically talking about keeping Lopez and putting him back at second base, though that may only be in the hopes of generating more interest in him. He's due $4 million-$4.5 million in his final year of arbitration. I've long assumed Brown would go, but the Royals still have room for him in left field if they want to bring him back. They could do better for the $3.5 million he's likely to collect. … Ramirez needs to get back to the NL if he's going to have a shot at putting his career back together. There should be plenty of interest, with Philadelphia possibly leading the way. … The Red Sox will probably non-tender and then re-sign Donnelly, who is expected to miss much of the season following Tommy John surgery.

Less Likely: 3B Joe Crede (White Sox), RHP Mark Prior (Cubs), RHP Akinori Otsuka (Padres), RHP John Patterson (Nationals), OF Xavier Nady (Pirates), OF Marcus Thames (Tigers), RHP Luis Ayala (Nationals), LHP Gustavo Chacin (Blue Jays), RHP Claudio Vargas (Brewers), RHP Josh Towers (Blue Jays), RHP Jorge Sosa (Mets), RHP Tim Redding (Nationals), RHP Chad Durbin (Tigers), OF Jason Tyner (Twins), OF Tike Redman (Orioles), OF Chris Snelling (Phillies), RHP Yhency Brazoban (Dodgers), RHP Vinnie Chulk (Giants), RHP Todd Coffey (Reds), RHP Tyler Yates (Braves), RHP Kyle Snyder (Red Sox), LHP Lenny DiNardo (Athletics), OF Jason Repko (Dodgers), INF Jason Smith (Royals), RHP Luke Hudson (Royals)

Crede and Prior might not have a lot of trade value, but they should fetch back a couple of lesser prospects apiece. Neither needs to be non-tended. … Otsuka's rehab from his elbow injury seems to be going well, so the Rangers will probably offer him a contract. That Eric Gagne signed elsewhere only makes that a more likely scenario. … Thames and Durbin would have qualified as big surprises a week ago, but with Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis on the roster, the Tigers need to free up money and have put both on the trading block. Thames, in particular, should have some trade value. … The Blue Jays have indicated they don't plan to non-tender any of their pitchers, even though Chacin and Towers figure to be long-shot rotation candidates at best. Chacin is eligible for arbitration for the first time, so it'll be worth $1 million or so to see if he can bounce back and contribute. Towers isn't worth keeping around at the $3 million-$3.5 million he's likely to command.

Already Dropped: OF Scott Podsednik (White Sox), INF Jose Castillo (Pirates), OF So Taguchi (Cardinals), INF Jorge Cantu (Reds), INF Alex Cintron (White Sox), OF Terrmel Sledge (Padres), RHP Julio Mateo (Phillies), LHP Dave Williams (Mets), RHP Chin-Hui Tsao (Dodgers), 1B Josh Phelps (Pirates), OF Willie Harris (Braves), OF Timo Perez (Tigers), OF David Newhan (Mets), RHP Lance Cormier (Braves), RHP Chad Paronto (Braves), OF Laynce Nix (Brewers)



Rule 5 Wrap

Believing it was easier to find the next Joakim Soria or Kevin Cameron than a Josh Hamilton or Dan Uggla, teams mostly decided to look for bullpen help in the Rule 5 draft. 14 of the 18 players to go were pitchers and 12 will only be considered for bullpen duty in spring training. The pitchers with a chance of claiming rotation spots were R.A. Dickey (Mariners) and Travis Blackley (Phillies). Not coincidentally, those two happened to be the only players chosen that were signed to minor league contracts after the season. The Twins brought in Dickey with an eye towards potentially making the knuckleballer their fifth starter. Blackley, unlike Dickey, would seem to have a much better chance of winning a job with his new team after initially being re-signed by the Giants.

Besides Dickey and Blackley, I think the best bets to stick are Brian Barton (Cardinals), Randor Bierd (Orioles), Carlos Guevara (Padres) and Fernando Hernandez Jr. (Athletics). Barton seems like the only fantasy sleeper of the bunch, and he'll have to prove he's 100 percent after September knee surgery. Despite being old for his leagues, Barton, an undrafted free agent out of Miami in 2004, was a consensus top-10 prospect in the Indians chain after hitting .323/.412/.511 between Single-A Kinston and Double-A Akron in 2006. In 2007, he batted .314/.416/.440 in 389 AB for Akron before struggling some in a late-season stint in Triple-A (.264/.333/.333 in 87 AB). He's a pretty good center fielder, and he has 30-steal ability, assuming that he's past his knee issues. If he loses a step, then he might not be much more than a fourth outfielder. The Cardinals figure to give him at-bats over Jim Edmonds and Chris Duncan against left-handers, with the possibility of a more significant role once someone gets hurt. He'll be worth a late-round pick in NL-only leagues.


Free Agency Review

A quick glance at how last month's predictions (Hitters, Pitchers) are holding up for the free agents that have already signed.

Jorge Posada - Yankees
Prediction: Yankees - four years, $56 million
Actual: Yankees - four years, $52.4 million

Yorvit Torrealba - Rockies
Prediction: Marlins - two years, $9 million
Actual: Rockies - two years, $7.25 million with $4 million mutual option for 2010

Michael Barrett - Padres
Prediction: Rockies - one year, $2.5 million
Actual: Padres - accepted arbitration

Jason Kendall - Cubs
Prediction: Padres - one year, $2 million
Actual: Brewers - one year, $4.25 million with $4.25 million option for 2009

Luis Castillo - Mets
Prediction: Mets - two years, $13 million
Actual: Mets - four years, $25 million

Kaz Matsui - Rockies
Prediction: Cubs - three years, $13.5 million
Actual: Astros - three years, $16.5 million

Mark Loretta - Astros
Prediction: Astros - one year, $3 million
Actual: Astros - accepted arbitration

Alex Rodriguez - Yankees
Prediction: Angels - eight years, $260 million
Actual: Yankees - 10 years, $275 million plus $30 million in incentives

Mike Lowell - Red Sox
Prediction: Red Sox - three years, $45 million
Actual: Red Sox - three years, $37.5 million

Torii Hunter - Twins
Prediction: Yankees - six years, $96 million
Actual: Angels - five years, $80 million

Andruw Jones - Braves
Prediction: Dodgers - three years, $54 million
Actual: Dodgers - two years, $36.2 million

Jose Guillen - Mariners
Prediction: Royals - two years, $16 million
Actual: Royals - three years, $36 million

Milton Bradley - Padres
Prediction: Cardinals - one year, $5 million with club option for 2009
Actual: Rangers - one year, $5 million (reportedly)

Andy Pettitte - Yankees
Prediction: Yankees - one year, $16 million
Actual: Yankees - Accepted arbitration

Curt Schilling - Red Sox
Prediction: Red Sox - one year, $13 million
Actual: Red Sox - one year, $8 million (plus $6 million in incentives)

Kenny Rogers - Tigers
Prediction: Tigers - one year, $8 million
Actual: Tigers - one year, $8 million (plus $2 million in incentives)

Tom Glavine - Mets
Prediction: Braves - one year, $7 million
Actual: Braves - one year, $8 million

Randy Wolf - Dodgers
Prediction: Angels - one year, $5 million (plus incentives)
Actual: Padres - one year, $4 million (plus $5 million in incentives)

Mariano Rivera - Yankees
Prediction: Yankees - three years, $40 million
Actual: Yankees - three years, $45 million

Francisco Cordero - Brewers
Prediction: Brewers - four years, $40 million
Actual: Reds - four years, $46 million

Scott Linebrink - Brewers
Prediction: Yankees - four years, $24 million
Actual: White Sox - four years, $19 million

Todd Jones - Tigers
Prediction: Tigers - one year, $6 million
Actual: Tigers - one year, $7 million

Eric Gagne - Red Sox
Prediction: Rangers - one year, $5 million plus incentives
Actual: Brewers - one year, $10 million (plus $1 million in incentives)

Masahide Kobayashi - Japan
Prediction: Mariners - three years, $15 million
Actual: Indians - two years, $6.25 million with $3.25 million club option for 2010

David Riske - Royals
Prediction: Phillies - three years, $13.5 million
Actual: Brewers - three years, $13 million with $4.75 million club option for 2011

Kerry Wood - Cubs
Prediction: Cubs - one year, $4 million plus incentives
Actual: Cubs - one year, $4.25 million (plus $3.45 million in incentives)

J.C. Romero - Phillies
Prediction: Phillies - three years, $12 million
Actual: Phillies - three years, $12 million with $4.75 million club option for 2011

LaTroy Hawkins - Rockies
Prediction: Athletics - two years, $7.5 million
Actual: Yankees - one year, $3.75 million (reportedly)

Yasuhiko Yabuta - Japan
Prediction: White Sox - three years, $9 million
Actual: Royals - two years, $6 million with $4 million club option for 2010