Geovany Soto, C, Chicago CubsYou won't find a more debated prospect coming into 2008 due to his out-of-nowhere production last season. Coming into 2007, Soto had done nothing to prove himself as a top prospect in Chicago's system beyond being an above average defensive catcher, batting a paltry .262/.344/.371 over his full career. And there's still reason for concern coming into 2008 when you take into consideration his high hr/f rate and low fly ball and contact numbers upon call-up.
However, one simply cannot discount the numbers he put up last season as a fluke. Not only did he lead the minors in batting average by a catcher (.353) and slugging percentage (.652), he also won the Triple-A Pacific Coast League RBI crown (109) and was named MVP of the league. And he was arguably Chicago's best hitter after his call-up, so he was able to excel for an extended period of time.
One secret to this success might be the dramatic weight loss Soto achieved before 2007's start. By losing 30 pounds before the season, Soto was able to get around on pitches more efficiently with his compact swing, as well as helping his defense wholesale. While one has to take pause that he has not done this beyond one season, where and when he's doing it cannot be ignored.
Combine with that the fact that Soto is all but guaranteed the starting catcher gig this year, and you have yourself a potential breakout player. His defense will keep him up (he had a 31% caught-stealing rate last season, which will translate well in the big leagues), and considering how long they toiled with
Jason Kendall, if his bat is only half as good as it was last year, he's going to stick. Most quality catchers will go in the middle rounds of a regular 12-team, with the top three going way too early, making Soto a wonderful speculative pick at the end of your draft, allowing you to maximize on positional players with high at bat impacts.
460 AB, .281 BA, 19 HR, 66 R, 74 RBI, 1 SB
Jay Bruce, CF/RF, Cincinnati RedsThe consensus best hitter in the minor leagues last season and Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year, Bruce heads a class of Cincinnati prospects ready for prime time. He will be as hyped in your coming drafts as
Alex Gordon was last year and long-term projects as a perennial all-star and a top 20 player for years to come.
His similarities to Gordon unfortunately do not end with pedigree and hype, but also with him being drastically overvalued in redraft leagues. Cincinnati picked up
Adam Dunn's option, and with all three Reds outfielders returning, it's not clear where Bruce fits in right now. Cincinnati could be content with Bruce delaying his service time and fine-tuning his game in Triple-A for at least the first few months, though he really has little to nothing left to prove in the minors.
Bruce rates as above average in all five tools, with his bat his calling card (and it's quite the calling card). He has the ability to hit for both a very high batting average (.310+) and power (20 HR), this year. He'll be able to play an average centerfield, but long term projects as a right fielder which will allow his body to fill out. His major problem thus far has been a rather high K rate (23.5% at Triple-A last year), which combined with his lucky BABIP rates (.351, .400, .429 and .359 at his four respective stops, though this could be a developing skill), low contact rate (74%) and high ground ball rate (39%) says he'll have a bit of trouble with more advanced pitching – he'll be 21 at season's start after all. This is likely a temporary setback, and Cincinnati has proven time and time again that they'll promote (and stick with) pure power regardless of low average. But for 2008, what his production holds, overall, is still a major question. 204 plate appearances in Triple-A is not the same as a full year in the majors.
When you combine this with the lack of a clear spot for him to play, you'll be risking an awful lot with the high pick you'll have to use to grab him. Of course, if you're in a keeper league he'll be worth whatever you spend now at some point in the near future, but for those in one-year leagues, he's an extremely risky investment as he'll most likely be gone by the 7th to 10th rounds (and higher in NL-only). If he's there in the twelfth or lower rounds, by all means make the move, but this will be the exception, not the rule. If things change and he does get a starting job out of spring training, you can completely trash these numbers below.
315 AB's, .285 BA, 11 HR, 42 R, 45 RBI, 5 SB
Prospect Contributions for 2008Taking chances at the end of your draft is what makes or breaks a season. Every team will draft a bevy of stars at the top and usually only injury derails these picks. The successful teams not only get the top picks they want, they also excel at drafting well at the very end of their drafts. And while they're not always picking prospects here, understanding and noting what these type of players will do for the upcoming season is of the utmost importance when putting together your own cheat sheets.
Second and third year players are the ones who usually show the most growth and value (see
James Shields' 2007 campaign), and are your best late round fliers, but we're taking a closer look at the prospects for this coming season, as this is the list where most late-round draft mistakes are made, and these overvaluations prevent owners from obtaining more productive players. And unfortunately, because the pedigree is so high with some of these guys, it becomes difficult to cut bait with a future superstar in the midst of a horrible struggle (see
Alex Gordon's 2007 campaign).
Please note that the order of these lists assumes a non-keeper 12-team mixed league, and not long term keeper value. We're focusing on the most common league that the majority of people play, and that is the redraft league. This is a seven-part series, breaking down each individual division, and finally presenting individual combined lists for mixed redraft, AL-only redraft and NL-only redraft, as well as a mixed league keeper list to see where all these guys stand for the future.
* Kosuke Fukudome is not listed here because Japanese or any other experienced foreign players coming over aren't necessarily 'prospects' per se, rather, they're more like 'special free agents.' If he was included here, he'd easily be #1, and he'd also be #1 for this season on the final list, if that helps at all. Other foreign 'special free agents' will be handled separately as well.
NL CentralJoey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati RedsJoey Votto was thought to be the safer bet (due to an open job) of the Reds position players coming into this season, until Cincinnati picked up their option on
Scott Hatteberg. Votto will now compete for the first base job come spring training, and considering Hatteberg's poor defense (as evidenced by a .675 RZR rating and only twelve out-of-zone plays) might not be such a bad risk as one might assume considering Votto's so-so glove work.
Votto has above-average bat speed and strong wrists which allows him to hit for power to all fields. While he doesn't project as a .300 hitter, he also won't become
Adam Dunn II, most likely hovering around .280 with extended at bats. He's much more patient at the plate than fellow teammate
Jay Bruce, striking out 18.8% of the time while walking 12.8% (compared to Bruce's 23.5% and 7.8%) while also posting a slightly better contact rate (78% versus 74%), which also had been rising at every level. He's not much of an athlete, and while he did do a serviceable job when given time in left field last year, he still projects as somewhat of a defensive liability, meaning his bat has to produce for him to stick. Comparative bat-wise to Hatteberg, however, he's a huge upgrade despite whatever slumps may come.
While the likelihood of Votto starting the season in Louisville remains high because of the Hatteberg resigning, Wayne Krivsky knows he needs more impact bats in the Cincinnati's line-up if they are to compete. A platoon isn't likely as both players struggle against left-handers, meaning the writing is on the wall for Hatteberg. His bat is essentially empty outside of his high on base percentage, and his negligible speed negates much of that value, while Votto actually possesses solid enough base path instincts to have stolen 17 bags at Louisville last year.
Long term,
Jay Bruce is the much better bet between the two prospects (and is number one in all of the minors in terms of keeper leagues), but for this season the likelihood that Votto eventually wins the first base job outright and gets 100-200 more at bats than Bruce, combined with his more advanced plate coverage and contact rate gains, makes him the top choice. He's a perfect candidate for a late-round flier when you also consider the park he'll call home.
465 AB, .280 BA, 20 HR, 64 R, 71 RBI, 12 SB
Geovany Soto, C, Chicago CubsYou won't find a more debated prospect coming into 2008 due to his out-of-nowhere production last season. Coming into 2007, Soto had done nothing to prove himself as a top prospect in Chicago's system beyond being an above average defensive catcher, batting a paltry .262/.344/.371 over his full career. And there's still reason for concern coming into 2008 when you take into consideration his high hr/f rate and low fly ball and contact numbers upon call-up.
However, one simply cannot discount the numbers he put up last season as a fluke. Not only did he lead the minors in batting average by a catcher (.353) and slugging percentage (.652), he also won the Triple-A Pacific Coast League RBI crown (109) and was named MVP of the league. And he was arguably Chicago's best hitter after his call-up, so he was able to excel for an extended period of time.
One secret to this success might be the dramatic weight loss Soto achieved before 2007's start. By losing 30 pounds before the season, Soto was able to get around on pitches more efficiently with his compact swing, as well as helping his defense wholesale. While one has to take pause that he has not done this beyond one season, where and when he's doing it cannot be ignored.
Combine with that the fact that Soto is all but guaranteed the starting catcher gig this year, and you have yourself a potential breakout player. His defense will keep him up (he had a 31% caught-stealing rate last season, which will translate well in the big leagues), and considering how long they toiled with
Jason Kendall, if his bat is only half as good as it was last year, he's going to stick. Most quality catchers will go in the middle rounds of a regular 12-team, with the top three going way too early, making Soto a wonderful speculative pick at the end of your draft, allowing you to maximize on positional players with high at bat impacts.
460 AB, .281 BA, 19 HR, 66 R, 74 RBI, 1 SB
Jay Bruce, CF/RF, Cincinnati RedsThe consensus best hitter in the minor leagues last season and Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year, Bruce heads a class of Cincinnati prospects ready for prime time. He will be as hyped in your coming drafts as
Alex Gordon was last year and long-term projects as a perennial all-star and a top 20 player for years to come.
His similarities to Gordon unfortunately do not end with pedigree and hype, but also with him being drastically overvalued in redraft leagues. Cincinnati picked up
Adam Dunn's option, and with all three Reds outfielders returning, it's not clear where Bruce fits in right now. Cincinnati could be content with Bruce delaying his service time and fine-tuning his game in Triple-A for at least the first few months, though he really has little to nothing left to prove in the minors.
Bruce rates as above average in all five tools, with his bat his calling card (and it's quite the calling card). He has the ability to hit for both a very high batting average (.310+) and power (20 HR), this year. He'll be able to play an average centerfield, but long term projects as a right fielder which will allow his body to fill out. His major problem thus far has been a rather high K rate (23.5% at Triple-A last year), which combined with his lucky BABIP rates (.351, .400, .429 and .359 at his four respective stops, though this could be a developing skill), low contact rate (74%) and high ground ball rate (39%) says he'll have a bit of trouble with more advanced pitching – he'll be 21 at season's start after all. This is likely a temporary setback, and Cincinnati has proven time and time again that they'll promote (and stick with) pure power regardless of low average. But for 2008, what his production holds, overall, is still a major question. 204 plate appearances in Triple-A is not the same as a full year in the majors.
When you combine this with the lack of a clear spot for him to play, you'll be risking an awful lot with the high pick you'll have to use to grab him. Of course, if you're in a keeper league he'll be worth whatever you spend now at some point in the near future, but for those in one-year leagues, he's an extremely risky investment as he'll most likely be gone by the 7th to 10th rounds (and higher in NL-only). If he's there in the twelfth or lower rounds, by all means make the move, but this will be the exception, not the rule. If things change and he does get a starting job out of spring training, you can completely trash these numbers below.
315 AB's, .285 BA, 11 HR, 42 R, 45 RBI, 5 SB
Homer Bailey, RHP, Cincinnati RedsIn the world of prospect projecting, a few bad circumstances sure can tarnish a player's outlook, despite all the gushing and fawning he received only months prior.
Homer Bailey is the perfect example of this somewhat unfair devaluation. Less than a year ago I was reading comparisons to Nolan Ryan (how accurate this may be is certainly debatable), and now I'm seeing him valued lower than fellow Reds prospect
Johnny Cueto on many expert's lists.
Bailey flashes a plus curveball that has the ability to absolutely embarrass hitters, mixed with deceptive drag-and-drop delivery and two above average fastballs. His ¾ arm slot and delivery both are extremely sustainable. He initially struggled at the major league level because he was attempting to incorporate his full arsenal, losing a bit of the bite on his fastball, and sacrificing his command. All he has to do is refine his command and control to become the true ace that he's been long projected to be. And despite the poor results last season, he's on the correct path.
Adding to Bailey's problems last year was the fact that he was injured for the majority of his call-up, straining his groin after his seven-inning, two-hit start against Oakland on June 19. He was shutdown shortly thereafter for two months, returning for three somewhat notable starts in September, winning two. The major knock on Bailey has always been his inefficiency; pitching deep into counts and tiring early, which clearly can be seen in his poor k/bb rates (both 13.7% in the majors).
Barring something miraculous, this is unlikely to change for 2008 (or unfortunately part of 2009). However, he's got a nice repeatable delivery and is a very good athlete, thus the injury tag should not be applied. Still, he's best to be avoided on draft day, as young pitchers usually take years to adjust to the major league level and his repertoire has already been exposed, not to mention pitching in Great American Ballpark. While there is a slight chance it will click for him this season, thus elevating the below numbers, neither he nor Cueto will likely provide substantial value, and staying away from Bailey for another year or so makes the most sense in redraft leagues. Those who own him in keeper leagues do not have much choice but to hold, and must continue to as the potential payoff still remains quite great.
130 IP, 7 W, 104 K, 87 BB, 4.65 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
J.R. Towles, C, Houston AstrosDespite limited high minor league experience, Justin Towles impressed upon his call-up to Houston last season, batting .375/.432/.575 over 45 plate appearances, hitting one home run while only striking out once. Towles has rocketed up many prospect lists due to his ability to steal bases, and reminded some of the next
Russell Martin.
The problem is that the two catchers have very different bodies, with Martin four inches shorter and about 35 pounds heavier. Martin is simply much more powerful right now. And while Towles is fast, he was also caught 14 of the 28 times he ran last season, leading one to temper their expectations for his success rates in the big leagues – he did not even attempt one steal in 40 at bats in Houston.
What Towles does have going for him (and against him) is that he does everything well and nothing spectacular. His pitch recognition and plate presence are sound (as evidenced by an 84% contact rate at Double-A), he's adding strength, suggesting that he'll hit for moderate power and a decent average. His speed is above average for a catcher, but his instincts on the base paths need refining. He calls a good game and has soft hands, which is what will keep him up this season under the tutelage of
Brad Ausmus. All of these traits do place him as an above average catcher, and definitely worthy of taking a flier on draft day in the final rounds.
What one needs to take pause with is that he has proven little in the high minors due to limited time there. And while his stats last year in the majors look nice on paper, he did it during mop up time and against the following pitchers:
Matt Morris,
Paul Maholm,
Braden Looper (his 8 RBI game),
Joel Pineiro,
Brad Thompson,
Homer Bailey,
Kirk Saarloos,
Matt Belisle (who he went hitless against) and Jo Jo Reyes. It's likely he needs more time polishing up his skills before he faces superior pitching, and prolonged slumps could be in order in the immediate future. But due to the amount of at bats he's destined to get, and a superior contact skill, he's more than likely to hit for average, suggesting you could do much worse at catcher on draft day. However, the
Russell Martin steal totals are a dream right now, and his power still needs a full season to develop.
340 AB, .282 BA, 7 HR, 53 R, 43 RBI, 4 SB
Colby Rasmus, CF, St. Louis CardinalsRasmus takes a big hit on this list with word that
Rick Ankiel will be given every opportunity to open the season as the Cardinals starting centerfielder, and either
Skip Schumaker or
Ryan Ludwick manning right. If Rasmus was assured of a job, he'd move up this list. A true five-tool talent with nary a weakness, it's looking more and more like Colby will begin the season at Triple-A Memphis, which is where he should be at in terms of his natural progression.
One only has to take a cursory look at his metrics from last season to see a true star in the making. He's still growing into his frame, but still hit 37 doubles and 29 home runs in 555 plate appearances! While he struck out 19.5% of the time, he also showed promising plate presence by walking 12.6%. His fly ball rates were also quite high, while keeping his ground ball rate at a very low 28%. His average was at .274, which does suggest he could struggle at the major league level, and could use a little more time in the minors, but this average is due to climb as he gains more experience against better competition and learns how to avoid prolonged slumps. The sky is the limit with Rasmus.
The big wild card this season with Rasmus is his playing time. If he gets regular at bats, he'll be an above average producer with a slightly better-than
Adam Dunn-esque batting average. But because the risk is so high that he'll actually see less than 250 at bats, for 12-team mixed redraft leagues, he's nothing more than a final round flier, and very risky one whom could be taking up valuable bench space with no discernable return for quite some time. Unfortunately, I'd bet on the under with Rasmus in terms of playing time.
240 AB, .248 BA, 11 HR, 31 R, 26 RBI, 8 SB
Deeper Mixed Leagues:Matt LaPorta, LF, Milwaukee BrewersLed the NCAA in slugging and OPS and possesses incredible power and excellent plate discipline. A student of the game, if defense improves only moderately, bat will carry him far. Move to left field could yet pay off big dividends for Milwaukee. LaPorta is definitely one to nab in deep leagues earlier than later, and if a keeper league, bump up even further. Might even be worth a flier in a 12-team mixed if he gets the playing time.
Johnny Cueto, RHP, Cincinnati RedsSmall frame but has plus command. Though his stamina lacks, his light weight indicates this shouldn't be a future issue. Has impressive pitch movement which is his key to strike outs. Because he can succeed in a variety of roles, may see bullpen action or spot starts for 2008. Future is bright and has shot up many prospect lists. Do not discount because of size.
Manny Parra, LHP, Milwaukee BrewersDespite history of arm problems, had an incredibly successful season, highlighted by a perfect game against Red Rock in only his second start in the Pacific Coast League. Has the stuff to absolutely dominate hitters due to plus command and plus curve mixed with above average mixed fastball. Because last season was his first healthy one, he's more than likely due for extended time in Milwaukee's bullpen, but all it will take is another semi-annual
Ben Sheets trip to the DL to move him into the rotation. He could easily rocket into the top list provided his arm stays healthy and the opportunity manifests.
Steven Pearce, 1B, Pittsburgh PiratesPearce is an under-the-table guy to keep your eyes on. Has produced at a 30 home run pace throughout his minor league career, and only defense has held him back. Has power to all fields, plays a solid first base and even has some nice speed for a slugger (16 stolen bases last year). He's blocked by
Adam LaRoche, but if his play improves in right field, he could see more time. As it stands, he will have limited at bats, but still could produce at a high level for a rookie and move up this list.
Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh's one true impact player, whom normally would be listed amongst the Bruce's and Rasmus' of the prospect world, slides out of 12-team mixed leagues due to his limited power ceiling and eroding plate discipline. While he will be given an opportunity to compete for the starting center field job, a more likely scenario is a mid-season call up, and a limited fantasy impact outside of steals and runs. His speed and defense is top notch, but as stated above, he still has bat work to fine tune, and that's best done at Triple-A Indianapolis for a full season.
Neil Walker, 3B, Pittsburgh PiratesMove from behind the plate helped Walker focus on hitting to increasingly positive results. Walker has a smooth swing, good bat speed and some quickness on the base paths, all traits lacking from anyone manning the hot corner in Pittsburgh for some time.
Jose Bautista's RZR (.612) says a third base upgrade is needed, though he did make 36 out-of-zone plays, which means Walker is likely limited for 2008. He is, however, their third baseman of the future despite his own limited range.
2008 NL-Only, with projected job: Eric Patterson, 2B, Chicago Cubs (possible starting/mid-season 2nd baseman)
Felipe Paulino, RHP, Houston Astros (possible 5th starter/middle reliever)
Chris Perez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (middle reliever)
Daniel Moskos, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (middle reliever)
Sean Gallagher, RHP, Chicago Cubs (spot starter)
Tyler Colvin, RF, Chicago Cubs (platoon outfielder)
Brian Barton, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (platoon outfielder)
Matt Maloney, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (possible 5th starter/middle reliever)
Sam Gervacio, RHP, Houston Astros (middle reliever)
Chad Reineke, RHP, Houston Astros (middle reliever/RH specialist)
Kevin Hart, RHP, Chicago Cubs (middle reliever)
Up next:
NL East