Deeper Mixed LeaguesJair Jurrjens, RHP, Atlanta BravesJair Jurrjens is a 22-year-old from Curacao who came over from Detroit in the
Edgar Renteria trade with
Gorkys Hernandez. He has two above average fastballs and a change up with good arm speed and sinking action. His command is also good and he has an athletic body. Jurrjens struggles with his curveball and his delivery is long. While he changes speeds well, he also leaves pitches up in the zone.
However, durability is his major concern, as he has a lot of effort at his finish and has already established an injury history. Jurrjens has a chance to be the number five starter for Atlanta this year, but because his opposing batting average is likely to hover around .290, it could be ugly times for those involved. He may actually provide some nice win upside now, but likely needs more time in the high minors to make his ratios acceptable.
Brandon Jones, LF, Atlanta BravesPlain and simple, if
Brandon Jones glove was where his bat currently is, he'd likely move up onto the first list, and possibly to the top of it for 2008. He's the complete package, with great bat speed, above average power and batting average ability. His power is also projectable and because of improved plate discipline, could continue to grow. While his speed is average, he has great base instincts, and has the ability to possibly steal 15-20 bases annually. While his arm is strong, he still has accuracy issues.
Left field is still up in the air in Atlanta next season, and while
Matt Diaz's bat is pretty special against lefties (and none too shabby against righties), and he has a better glove, there's no doubt that Jones is the Braves preference for the future. If Jones gets extended time there, he could be a Rookie of the Year darkhorse. As it stands now, he'll probably start the year off at Triple-A Richmond while Diaz starts in left for the Braves, though all it will take is a small slump by Diaz to give Jones a shot. Monitor very closely. If it turns out that the Braves carry Jones with the team to start the season, his value increases substantially, and he moves up into the top list.
Chris Volstad, RHP, Florida MarlinsChris Volstad was a 2005 first-rounder, and a tall one at that. Standing in at 6'7", Volstad's largest problem is that he gives up too many hits considering his above average stuff. He pitches to contact due to a below average change-up, mainly because of a failure to repeat his arm speed. He retooled his curveball to induce more grounders, which also tends to inflate the hit rate.
Because Volstad is known for his impeccable poise and ability to take in instruction, it stands to reason that he may learn to get around his high hit rate. His body is very projectable, and it's not like Florida's current pitching staff is reliable health-wise or quality-wise. But because he's so new to the upper levels, this could be some time away. He'll likely start 2008 at Double-A Carolina, and if he can start missing more bats, he'll likely see a mid-season call-up as a fifth starter. What that means, however, remains to be seen for this year.
Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Philadelphia PhilliesAn extremely projectable pitcher,
Carlos Carrasco has two electric fastballs, a 72-78 mph curve and the best change-up in the Phillies system. Impressive command and arm action, it stands to reason that because he can repeat his ¾ arm delivery that he should stay relatively injury free. One concern is that he does pitch with effort, which could wear him down early in games. He also struggled after his promotion, leading to command/hr rate woes as well as struggles with runners on base. However, he still projects as a power ground ball pitcher, and he is still quite young for how far he's progressed. The question that remains is will he be able to solve his inconsistency?
While it is unlikely that Carrasco is called up this season, there is a remote chance that he gets bullpen work down the stretch for a playoff run. Whether or not Philadelphia wants to toy with that inconsistency in pressure filled games remains to be seen. There is also the small chance that
Adam Eaton does not work out, and if Carrasco is dominating the Eastern League, he's given the opportunity. He could definitely move up this list, and has a bright future ahead of him as one of the best young arms in the game.
Prospect Contributions for 2008NL EASTClick here for a look at the NL Central.The first thing that you will notice as we move from the NL Central to the NL East, is that there is comparatively an absolute dearth of qualifying rookie prospects that can help your team this season. Whereas there were five players who would go for $10+ in a regular 5x5 league in the NL Central, in the NL East, there is only one, and his value comes with an extreme downside. So the mood of these lists will be a bit on the somber side.
This is not to say that there are no bright future stars in the NL East, on the contrary, there's plenty; it's just that almost all of them will not be ready to substantially contribute positive stats to their teams this year, nor yours. And again, these are not future keeper lists, but rather, top prospects who may contribute to your successes in 2008. I've received a fair share of emails about this, and I just want to reiterate, these lists are not meant to rank future keepers on their full careers, but for just one season.
Another question was: "how was I determining who qualified for these lists?" I'm using the MLB's rookie designation limits: "A player who hasn't accumulated 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in previous seasons and hasn't spent 45 or more days on 25-man active rosters, not including times when the active list is expanded to 40." That last part should answer why
Carlos Gomez isn't on any of the below lists, despite only 125 at-bats in the majors. Nitpicky I know, but this one is already long enough.
I also wanted to thank the many of you who wrote me positive letters. It definitely means a lot that someone out there values the hard work and time I put into these articles. And I know all the Rotoworld staff appreciates the positive feedback. Thanks again folks.
Cameron Maybin, CF, Florida MarlinsNo prospect in the NL East currently projects to contribute even a third of the value that Maybin will provide this year, and that's unfortunate for a variety of reasons. The most pressing of these is the fact that Maybin is simply not ready for the majors, and his time there this season could harm his progress. His season ended on a variety of down notes – from the Tigers losing out on the World Series, to his horrible showing in the majors, to him extending that horribleness to the AFL and finally being shut down with a partially dislocated shoulder. So any further disappointments have the potential to send him into a downward spiral that will likely only be corrected by a demotion, and extended time back in the minors.
With that said, Maybin's future does indeed look exceptionally bright. While he moves from a much better team in Detroit, to a suddenly depleted one at the major league level in Florida, he now has little to no competition for the starting center field job. It's essentially his to lose unless the Marlins come to their senses and allow him to progress slowly through their high minors as a 20-year-old. Playing time is one of the major reasons why he's substantially more valuable than anyone else on this particular list.
His skill set is beyond enticing, with incredible athleticism combined with excellent bat speed, and great batting average ability and power in the future. He's also a plus defender with amazing range and great arm strength. Maybin's also big, fast and has excellent instincts on the base paths. He is a true five-tool player, with a great make-up and is a true student of the game. The major issue here is his contact rates, which are driven by his long swing and below average strike zone judgment. Consider that he had a contact rate of .70 in 2006 at West Michigan, explaining his .415 BABIP and devaluing the .304/.382/.457 that he hit. Add into that a 9% LD rate and a 26.1% K rate, highlighting that there are some looming issues that need working on that major league pitchers won't likely be willing to help him out with.
Things got relatively better at High-A Lakeland, as he raised his contact rate up to .76, still not a remarkable number, but not bad for a 20-year-old in High A. Maybin also had a very high BABIP of .396, again explaining his .305/.393//488 line as something less than it looks. In his Double-A and MLB stops he had contact rates of .70 and .58, respectively, highlighting to an almost nauseating degree what many in the industry have been saying: the young man is not yet ready. Yes, the injury did not help these numbers, but the pre-injury data supported this kind of drop, though the .58 at Detroit is a likely a combination of both. It should also be noted that both these sample sizes are very small.
What this means for those buying into
Cameron Maybin this year is that he's going to score a fair amount of runs, and will actually provide a great deal of value in terms of stolen bases. He may even hit 10-14 home runs. But these numbers will come with an extremely prohibitive batting average; think .230. And over the amount of at-bats that he's likely to get, it could be a real killer for your team, so you have to decide if those steals, runs and home runs are worth the hassle. Most everyone thinks that Maybin gets there eventually in his career, no matter how this year goes for him, and he's one of the top ten prospects in the game, so none of this takes away from his future shine. And this year he will give you around $15 of value in a 5x5 league this year, but it will be a $15 that you may want to stay away from in redraft leagues, though you can certainly sell high. Those in keepers should try and snag him from their impatient owners after about his 5th week up if you want to buy in low. If you already own him on your minor league roster, keep him stashed there the entire year, and possibly even all of next.
467 AB, .233 BA, 11 HR, 86 R, 51 RBI, 34 SB
Brent Lillibridge, SS, Atlanta Braves There's a huge drop-off both in value for this season and value over the long-term, between Maybin and the rest of the players listed here starting now. While there are other prospects in the NL East who rank higher than the rest of these players, none of them are ready to contribute in 2008. And of the prospects that follow in this section, Lillibridge likely will not be as valuable as most them if they all reach their ceilings, as he doesn't have a lot of projecting left. But this is not to say that he's not a very good player, on the contrary. And for 2008, he's number two on this list because he's likely to see the most action without causing actual negative value to your team.
Lillibridge's skill set is that of the prototypical lead-off shortstop– great speed, doubles power and a fairly good batting eye, with an average hovering around the low .270's. All of his batting skills rate at moderate. His defense is very sound and he will stick at shortstop for his career and likely be considered one of the better ones in the majors. This is what he projects at, and he's essentially already there, which is what makes him unique versus these other players, as most are far from realizing their ceilings.
Where the issues come in is with Lillibridge viewing himself as something other than this. While he makes solid contact and has learned to drive the ball with more authority, he hurts his overall batting average by attempting to hit the home run rather than drive the ball to the open parts of the park, and use his natural speed to manufacture extra-base hits. This was manifested more in an on base percentage hit, hidden in his slugging gains.
There is room for Lillibridge to be better in the long run as a complete player, in reality, above just about every shortstop prospect out there. Certainly he has all the makings of a great defensive shortstop with game changing speed and on base ability. Whether or not he realizes this is what's left of his projection remains to be seen, and has a large impact on his role for the next few seasons. As it stands for 2008, he likely begins the season at Triple-A Richmond and is promoted once he begins playing to his actual strengths rather than his own perceived ones. His promotion will likely put him in a reserve role and as a pinch runner, with the chance to flourish at shortstop if he hits well.
161 AB, .266 BA, 4 HR, 29 R, 14 RBI, 13 SB
Ross Detwiler, LHP, Washington NationalsThe sixth-overall pick in last year's draft,
Ross Detwiler has all the makings of Washington's future ace. Plain and simple, the kid has electric stuff with three plus pitches to work with. Detwiler starred for Team USA in 2006, and only because of poor run support on lesser known Southwest Missouri State was Detwiler not the most heralded college pitcher of last year (and maybe because of a little guy named
David Price). Add to that he was the first 2007 draftee to make it to the majors, and you can understand why many in Washington are extremely excited.
Detwiler has a ton of projection and an absolutely devastating curve. The left-hander also throws a plus fastball that sits at 90-93 mph and can hit 96. He also has a changeup that is a third plus pitch at times. Combine that with above average command, and you have the perfect mix for a truly dominating pitcher. While Detwiler still needs to add strength, there's little doubt he'll be able to do that to his 6'5" frame.
His professional numbers are so small as to make any assumptions about them would be somewhat improper, but they sure do look good. If we look at his 2007 season at Southwest Missouri State, while we still get an incomplete picture, we can pick out his pitching metrics independent of his team defense. Over 89 innings, he compiled a 2.89 command rate and an 11.2 dominance rate! His 3.84 control rate leaves a little to be desired, and this will likely be the major thing he needs to work on next season in order to be successful.
Detwiler will likely start 2008 at Double-A Harrisburg, but if he improves on his 2007 gains, and gets his control rate down, it's more than likely he will get a mid-season call-up. Washington's rotation has some severe injury concerns so an early call certainly is possible (which would move him up to second on this list), but whenever he gets there, it's likely he starts. His stuff would project well in the Nationals bullpen though, so if he's needed, he could also end up in middle relief. There is a possibility that Detwiler's numbers go up from these projections based upon the rotation's health, or lack thereof.
98 IP, 5 W, 89 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Deeper Mixed LeaguesJair Jurrjens, RHP, Atlanta BravesJair Jurrjens is a 22-year-old from Curacao who came over from Detroit in the
Edgar Renteria trade with
Gorkys Hernandez. He has two above average fastballs and a change up with good arm speed and sinking action. His command is also good and he has an athletic body. Jurrjens struggles with his curveball and his delivery is long. While he changes speeds well, he also leaves pitches up in the zone.
However, durability is his major concern, as he has a lot of effort at his finish and has already established an injury history. Jurrjens has a chance to be the number five starter for Atlanta this year, but because his opposing batting average is likely to hover around .290, it could be ugly times for those involved. He may actually provide some nice win upside now, but likely needs more time in the high minors to make his ratios acceptable.
Brandon Jones, LF, Atlanta BravesPlain and simple, if
Brandon Jones glove was where his bat currently is, he'd likely move up onto the first list, and possibly to the top of it for 2008. He's the complete package, with great bat speed, above average power and batting average ability. His power is also projectable and because of improved plate discipline, could continue to grow. While his speed is average, he has great base instincts, and has the ability to possibly steal 15-20 bases annually. While his arm is strong, he still has accuracy issues.
Left field is still up in the air in Atlanta next season, and while
Matt Diaz's bat is pretty special against lefties (and none too shabby against righties), and he has a better glove, there's no doubt that Jones is the Braves preference for the future. If Jones gets extended time there, he could be a Rookie of the Year darkhorse. As it stands now, he'll probably start the year off at Triple-A Richmond while Diaz starts in left for the Braves, though all it will take is a small slump by Diaz to give Jones a shot. Monitor very closely. If it turns out that the Braves carry Jones with the team to start the season, his value increases substantially, and he moves up into the top list.
Chris Volstad, RHP, Florida MarlinsChris Volstad was a 2005 first-rounder, and a tall one at that. Standing in at 6'7", Volstad's largest problem is that he gives up too many hits considering his above average stuff. He pitches to contact due to a below average change-up, mainly because of a failure to repeat his arm speed. He retooled his curveball to induce more grounders, which also tends to inflate the hit rate.
Because Volstad is known for his impeccable poise and ability to take in instruction, it stands to reason that he may learn to get around his high hit rate. His body is very projectable, and it's not like Florida's current pitching staff is reliable health-wise or quality-wise. But because he's so new to the upper levels, this could be some time away. He'll likely start 2008 at Double-A Carolina, and if he can start missing more bats, he'll likely see a mid-season call-up as a fifth starter. What that means, however, remains to be seen for this year.
Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Philadelphia PhilliesAn extremely projectable pitcher,
Carlos Carrasco has two electric fastballs, a 72-78 mph curve and the best change-up in the Phillies system. Impressive command and arm action, it stands to reason that because he can repeat his ¾ arm delivery that he should stay relatively injury free. One concern is that he does pitch with effort, which could wear him down early in games. He also struggled after his promotion, leading to command/hr rate woes as well as struggles with runners on base. However, he still projects as a power ground ball pitcher, and he is still quite young for how far he's progressed. The question that remains is will he be able to solve his inconsistency?
While it is unlikely that Carrasco is called up this season, there is a remote chance that he gets bullpen work down the stretch for a playoff run. Whether or not Philadelphia wants to toy with that inconsistency in pressure filled games remains to be seen. There is also the small chance that
Adam Eaton does not work out, and if Carrasco is dominating the Eastern League, he's given the opportunity. He could definitely move up this list, and has a bright future ahead of him as one of the best young arms in the game.
Jordan Schafer, CF, Atlanta BravesThis write-up is substantially longer than the other deep leaguers because of my affinity for
Jordan Schafer. Last years minor league leader in hits, Schafer made more strides than nearly everyone down on the farm last season. He's one of those guys who does not seem to get the respect due to them despite their solid production. He's got a line-drive stroke with nice loft and great speed (4.05). He's a defensive wizard in center, with a plus plus arm, and projects as the Braves long term answer to
Andruw Jones. And not only is he solid in the field, but he comes off as a very likable player and a future clubhouse leader. He has that 'something' that companies love to buy into if you're an All-Star level producer.
Despite ending the year at High-A Myrtle Beach, some scouts think he could be ready after the 2008 All Star break. However, he still strikes out too much (19.6% K rate) despite the improved plate patience, and the risk of rushing his bat up to the majors risks damaging the progress he's made with pitch recognition (down to a 14.3% K rate in September from 25.2% in May) – his one major weakness. It would be best if they left him down and let him flourish in the right confines and progress on his natural pace.
While the Rangers netted Schafer's best-friend
Elvis Andrus in the
Mark Teixeira deal, Schafer was the one player that Atlanta general manager John Schuerholz would not part with under any circumstance. This speaks multitudes to how much the Braves organization values their future Gold Glover. Bet on late 2009 and definitely put on your radar, but I wouldn't expect anything more than a September cup-o-coffee, if that.
2008 NL-Only, with possible job:Josh Anderson, CF, Atlanta Braves (platoon CF)
Phil Humber, RHP, New York Mets (potential number five starter)
Justin Maxwell, CF, Washington Nationals (reserve outfielder)
JA Happ, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies (middle reliever, number five starter)
Collin Balester, RHP, Washington Nationals (middle reliever, number five starter)
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Washington Nationals (middle reliever, number five starter)
Greg Golson, CF, Philadelphia Phillies (reserve outfielder)
Robert Andino, SS, Florida Marlins (reserve SS/2B)
John Lannan, LHP, Washington Nationals (potential number five starter)
Joey Devine, RHP, Atlanta Braves (short reliever)
Eulogio de la Cruz, RHP, Florida Marlins (short reliever)
Josh Outman, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies (middle reliever, spot starter)
Mike Carp, 1B, New York Mets (reserve 1B, pinch-hitter)
Kevin Mulvey, RHP, New York Mets (middle reliever, spot starter)
Gaby Hernandez, RHP, Florida Marlins (middle reliever, potential number five starter)
Harvey Garcia, RHP, Florida Marlins (short reliever)
Jai Miller, OF, Florida Marlins (reserve outfielder, pinch-runner)
Anderson Hernandez, SS/2B, New York Mets (utility infielder)
Carlos Martinez, RHP, Florida Marlins (short reliever)
Dallas Trahern, RHP, Florida Marlins (middle reliever, spot starter)
Michael Zagurski, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies (lefty specialist)
Click here for a look at the NL Central.