Deeper Mixed Leagues:Jayson Nix, 2B, Colorado RockiesJayson Nix is a nice speculative pick for 2008 as he's the leading candidate to start at second base for the Rockies. Colorado has taken their time with Nix, and while he doesn't project as an All-Star, you can do a lot worse than take a chance on a second baseman playing half the time in Coors Field.
Nix sacrificed some of his plate patience for power last season, keeping identical ground ball and line drive rates from the year prior, while dropping his bb% and increasing his k% for 11 total home runs versus two in 2006 at the same level.
Marcus Giles is past his prime and is nobody's friend in the clubhouse, so Nix's biggest competition is from
Ian Stewart. The Colorado second base job is definitely one to watch during spring training.
Matt Antonelli, 2B, San Diego PadresThe classic over-achiever and all out hustle guy, Antonelli was supposed to be San Diego's starting second baseman this year, despite limited experience in the role, until San Diego signed
Tadahito Iguchi. Temper your expectations on Antonelli, now and in the future, as he'll be playing in a park that will sap what little power he has, and while he doesn't attempt to hit the ball like
Khalil Greene, it will still turn many of his line drives into outs.
He also doesn't have the glove or range that Khalil sports, and there's little chance that he unseats Iguchi any time soon. And though he's avoided major injury so far in his career, his playing style screams future issues. He also has above-average speed, though his average base path instincts say he might not be as good of a base stealer as his speed suggests. If you own, sell.
Jonathan Meloan, RHP, Los Angeles DodgersAwesome make-up combined with a plus slider, two above average breaking balls and incredible command.
Jonathan Meloan has the opportunity to win a bullpen job this spring training, and could see an important role if he succeeds. He derives his above-average command from his solid ¾ delivery and has plus sink on his fastball, suggesting that if his elbow holds up, he could become extremely valuable to the Dodgers. If
Jonathan Broxton is moved, his value goes way up. File under: Future Los Angeles Closer.
Franklin Morales, LHP, Colorado RockiesFranklin Morales has more upside than every player on this secondary list, and in time will become a dominant starter, however, he's still just 22-years-old, and will likely have a very difficult season pitching in Coors Field. He doesn't repeat his mechanics, his walk rate is very high thus he's fairly inefficient, and when you combine that with his high effort on pitches, we'll likely see him pulled often before completing the fifth inning. He also tends to get very flustered on the mound when things aren't going his way. Avoid in one year leagues, keep on your minor league roster in leagues that have them.
2008 NL-Only, with projected job:Delwyn Young, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (reserve OF/2B)
Casey Weathers, RHP, Colorado Rockies (short middle relief)
Chin-Lung Hu, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (reserve SS/2B)
Eugenio Velez, OF, San Francisco Giants (reserve OF/2B)
Joe Koshansky, 1B, Colorado Rockies (reserve 1B)
Seth Smith, OF, Colorado Rockies (reserve OF)
Brooks Brown, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief, possible #5 starter)
Emilio Bonifacio, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks (reserve 2B)
Billy Buckner, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief, possible #5 starter)
Juan Gutierrez, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief, possible #4 starter)
Esmerling Vasquez, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief)
Max Scherzer, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (short middle relief)
Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF, San Francisco Giants (reserve OF)
Wade LeBlanc, LHP, San Diego Padres (middle relief, possible #5 starter)
Billy Sadler, RHP, San Francisco Giants (short middle relief)
Juan Morillo, RHP, Colorado Rockies (short middle relief)
Osiris Matos, RHP, San Francisco Giants (short middle relief)
Nick Pereira, RHP, San Francisco Giants (middle relief)
John Bowker, OF, San Francisco Giants (reserve OF)
Jamie D'Antona, 1B/C/3B, Arizona Diamondbacks (reserve 1B/C/3B)
Click here for a look at the NL Central.
Click here for a look at the NL East.
Prospect Contributions for 2008NL WestClick here for a look at the NL Central.
Click here for a look at the NL East.In terms of 2008 production, the NL West falls squarely in between the prospect-rich NL Central, and the prospect-barren NL East, with six players who potentially could give you nice late round value, including one who could be a mid-round steal. While
Andy LaRoche, our top player for the NL West, would be in a near tie with the top player in the NL East,
Cameron Maybin, he has drastically less negative anchors attached to him, and would be the superior pick despite Maybin's extra benefits of stolen bases and runs. Compared to NL Central talent, LaRoche would likely rank third or fourth this season.
And while I thought that I had made clear what the purpose of these articles were, my mail bag tells me I wasn't so good at explaining this. These are not, repeat, are NOT long-term keeper lists. If they were,
Clayton Kershaw would be the far and away top choice in the NL West. However, because he doesn't figure to play in the majors this season, he would have zero impact for your team. Thus, he doesn't rate a top contributing prospect in 2008 despite his amazing long term potential, and was omitted from this article. Likewise, if you don't see someone whom you thought would be up, it's because I either don't think he will be, or that he doesn't rate as a prospect, rather he's an organizational solider, and not likely to project as a big league regular.
While the last few years have seen an explosion in keeper and other specialty leagues, single-season leagues are still the majority. Leagues with a minor league roster, though also becoming more commonplace, are still far and away from being used by a majority. The fact of the matter is that there are plenty of lists out there documenting top 10 prospects for each team in the league and a Google search will come up with many of them. What really isn't out there is a list documenting which of these players will actually help your teams out for the upcoming season, stripped of all the upside and ceiling hype, broken down to the nitty-gritty numbers of what they'll likely produce in their rookie campaigns.
Why is this important? Well, let me use
Alex Gordon again as an example. I'm a big believer in
Alex Gordon. But Gordon illustrates an important point about overvaluing hype in the short term. Gordon will likely be a great player, but it takes time for these guys to get there, most likely two to three seasons (BJ Upton is a great example of this). A season like
Ryan Braun's comes around once maybe every four or five years, and even that is a very liberal estimation. More often, what occurred with Gordon is the norm, and it's important to take that into consideration come draft day, especially when you are new to the game and aren't in a keeper league. Getting caught up in the hype and drafting a prospect way too early can ruin an entire season, and more importantly hasten the creation of the universally reviled 'dead-team syndrome', which is the single biggest problem with public leagues, and why many of us have left them behind.
So again, please understand that you are not going to see all of the top prospects in these lists, simply because many are not going to play in the majors in 2008. That does not mean I've devalued them long-term. It just means that they aren't worth drafting comparative to a player who will actually get 100 plate appearances or 40 innings and produce semi-positive results. And for those in keeper leagues, most are not advisable for you to bring up to your major league squad. It also means that when you see someone of
Max Scherzer's caliber (the best player now in the Diamondbacks system) all the way down at the bottom of the last list, it's because his projected value for this season is so low/poor that drafting him would have consequences for your team, not because he's a terrible player. He will be an above-average regular in future seasons given playing time, but this year will be one of those awful ones with many growing pains, and why he should be chosen only after a laundry list of others has been exhausted.
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Los Angeles DodgersThe news out of Los Angeles is that
Nomar Garciaparra and
Andy LaRoche are going to compete for the third base job this spring training. Don't let that bit of information fool you. LaRoche is currently Los Angeles' third baseman of the future (barring a trade, of course), and even if he loses out on the job, general manager Ned Colletti has said he'd be playing on the team in some fashion. Whatever the case may be, LaRoche is going to have the best campaign amongst all NL West players if he stays in the division for the whole season. However, the prospect that he will be moved remains on the higher end of the scale if LA enters the
Johan Santana fray.
LaRoche has plus power, the ability to hit the ball to all parts of the park, and great pitch recognition. His bat speed is also superior, indicating he'll hit for both power and a high batting average. His batting eye in Las Vegas was an awesome .929 and his contact rate was an above average 84%. While that contact rate dropped significantly upon his promotion to Los Angeles(as it tends to do for most players called up from the minors), he was able to maintain an above average .833 batting eye, suggesting that he will be able to raise his contact rate significantly with more experience. He also had a staggering .280 isolated power percentage at Las Vegas, which also plummeted upon call-up, but rest assured, he'll hit more towards that Las Vegas number than the .086 isop in LA. And though he tends to get pull-happy at times, he has the ability to be a middle of the order impact bat in short-order given he gets steady major league at bats.
What's keeping him from getting this experience is his average glove work at third base and his below-average speed. His range is poor, and while he's got soft hands and has worked hard to improve at the corner, his inability to project long term there is a major reason why Los Angeles has been looking to move him. He has been somewhat successful at playing left field at Las Vegas, and if he can improve his fielding skills, he's a lock to get plenty of at bats this year.
448 AB, .284 BA, 15 HR, 67 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB
Ian Stewart, 2B/3B, Colorado RockiesWhile
Ian Stewart's stock has slipped somewhat over the last year, it's hard to discount a guy who previously showed 30 home run potential who'll play half of his games at Coors Field. Not to mention the line-up he'll bat in. And many who have written off Stewart are quick to forget that
Matt Holliday did not show very well in the minors either.
Stewart has incredible bat speed with an uppercut swing, allowing him to hit for power to all fields. His swing gets long at times, becoming too pull-conscious, however, his approach has matured and there are small signs that his offense is coming together. He increased his bb% and dropped his k% last year at Colorado Springs, and while the overall changes in percentage were small, the numbers were in the right direction. His range and arm at third are great, and he projects long term as a solid third baseman, though he tends to get sloppy on the routine plays. And though he has average speed, his instincts on the bases say he'll steal more than expected.
The major hurdle in the road for Stewart is
Garrett Atkins. Stewart isn't getting any younger, and at age 25 this season, it's likely something has to give. Stewart has been working out at second base, and he will get a shot to win the starting job there this year in spring training. If he can shore up on the routine plays, and hit more balls in the air, he has an outstanding shot at starting at second base, but Jason Nix's glove and range may be too much for Stewart's bat and sometimes lazy glove to overcome. And considering the young age of some of Colorado's starters, having an error-prone lackadaisical second baseman is a recipe for disaster. However, it's clear that Stewart's time is done in the minors, and he really needs major league experience, now. While he may start the year out again at Colorado Springs, he will see a majority of his time up in the majors this season, and if he can put things together, he'll be a draft day steal. If he wins a starting job coming out of spring training, bump all these numbers up by 20-30%.
321 AB, .268 BA, 11 HR, 44 R, 49 RBI, 7 SB
Nate Schierholtz, OF, San Francisco GiantsIt really is this bad for the San Francisco Giants - their best prospect is a 17-year-old at least three years away from the majors (
Angel Villalona), and really no other prospect ready to substantially contribute this year, except Nate Schierholtz. I'll admit, I'm fairly high on him, especially considering how barren this system was before their 2007 draft, which still seems a bit questionable considering what they passed on. He has the potential to put up very serviceable numbers if he wins a starting outfield job out of spring training, and I think he has a solid shot of doing so when you consider just how truly horrendous San Francisco is.
Schierholtz has progressed very nicely over the past three seasons, decreasing his strike out rate every year, while maintaining his power output and increasing his contact rate (86% last year). While his batting eye (.293) leaves much to be desired, (only a 4.5% bb rate last year), he was able to off-set this with that above-average contact rate and 25% line drive rate. Though his batting eye says he's not a .300 hitter, his contact rate says he's not a .260 hitter either. He's kept his ground ball rate at a nice level upon promotion to San Francisco, and though he walked only once in the AFL, San Francisco will definitely take his .348/.363/.596 line combined with four home runs and eight doubles in 89 at bats. They have to, as they really have no other choice.
Schierholtz is incredibly strong and muscular, and has power to all fields and above average base stealing ability, something sorely lacking from San Francisco's current lineup. He also has improved his range in right field and has a very accurate and strong arm, suggesting that he's got a great shot to start in San Francisco rather than Fresno at season's start. And even if he does end up in Fresno, there's a very good chance that he sees extended time in the big leagues this year.
The biggest knock right now against Schierholtz is San Francisco's lineup. They will be the worst team in the major leagues this year, and rbi opportunities will be few and far between. And while they have
Rajai Davis,
Fred Lewis and
Daniel Ortmeier competing for outfield spots along with
Aaron Rowand,
Randy Winn and
Dave Roberts as established veterans, Schierholtz is younger and has more upside than any of the younger players. San Francisco will likely be out of contention after only a month or so, and there is no reason to suppress Schierholtz's growth to play sub-standard regulars. In fact, he could be the single reason why many fans come to see the Giants this season.
368 AB, .276 BA, 12 HR, 40 R, 39 RBI, 6 SB
Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres
Chase Headley had an outstanding season for San Antonio last year, hitting .330/.437/.580, all tops in the Texas League, with 20 home runs, 38 doubles and five triples, winning the league's MVP award and leading San Antonio to the league championship. He also made his major league debut after
Kevin Kouzmanoff sustained an injury to his lower back.
Headley plays above his tools, and has moderate power, bat speed and plate coverage, suggesting that while home runs will not be his forte, long doubles in Petco will, as he has good plate discipline mixed with nice first-step quickness, despite below-average speed. He also has work to do on his left-handed swing, and while he improved his approach in the Texas League, it's still a far cry from the majors.
Headley is blocked by Kouzmanoff, but many think that because Kouzmanoff has superior speed, that moving him to left field and placing Headley at third base is the best option for the organization. Unfortunately, San Diego isn't seeing it that way yet, and still has Kouzmanoff pegged as the starting third baseman, with Headley getting a shot at the left field gig. Regardless of where he plays, it's clear that Headley is ready for some big league time, and San Diego is likely going to give it to him. Petco is going to deflate what home run power he had, but his batting approach suggests that in time he could hit a fair amount of doubles at home with above-average home run power on the road. Also keep in mind he has no Triple-A time, and his contact rate at San Antonio last year was 74%, so there is the possibility that he spends a fair amount of time in Portland learning to hit against superior pitching.
252 AB, .262 BA, 5 HR, 36 R, 40 RBI, 0 SB
Deeper Mixed Leagues:Jayson Nix, 2B, Colorado RockiesJayson Nix is a nice speculative pick for 2008 as he's the leading candidate to start at second base for the Rockies. Colorado has taken their time with Nix, and while he doesn't project as an All-Star, you can do a lot worse than take a chance on a second baseman playing half the time in Coors Field.
Nix sacrificed some of his plate patience for power last season, keeping identical ground ball and line drive rates from the year prior, while dropping his bb% and increasing his k% for 11 total home runs versus two in 2006 at the same level.
Marcus Giles is past his prime and is nobody's friend in the clubhouse, so Nix's biggest competition is from
Ian Stewart. The Colorado second base job is definitely one to watch during spring training.
Matt Antonelli, 2B, San Diego PadresThe classic over-achiever and all out hustle guy, Antonelli was supposed to be San Diego's starting second baseman this year, despite limited experience in the role, until San Diego signed
Tadahito Iguchi. Temper your expectations on Antonelli, now and in the future, as he'll be playing in a park that will sap what little power he has, and while he doesn't attempt to hit the ball like
Khalil Greene, it will still turn many of his line drives into outs.
He also doesn't have the glove or range that Khalil sports, and there's little chance that he unseats Iguchi any time soon. And though he's avoided major injury so far in his career, his playing style screams future issues. He also has above-average speed, though his average base path instincts say he might not be as good of a base stealer as his speed suggests. If you own, sell.
Jonathan Meloan, RHP, Los Angeles DodgersAwesome make-up combined with a plus slider, two above average breaking balls and incredible command.
Jonathan Meloan has the opportunity to win a bullpen job this spring training, and could see an important role if he succeeds. He derives his above-average command from his solid ¾ delivery and has plus sink on his fastball, suggesting that if his elbow holds up, he could become extremely valuable to the Dodgers. If
Jonathan Broxton is moved, his value goes way up. File under: Future Los Angeles Closer.
Franklin Morales, LHP, Colorado RockiesFranklin Morales has more upside than every player on this secondary list, and in time will become a dominant starter, however, he's still just 22-years-old, and will likely have a very difficult season pitching in Coors Field. He doesn't repeat his mechanics, his walk rate is very high thus he's fairly inefficient, and when you combine that with his high effort on pitches, we'll likely see him pulled often before completing the fifth inning. He also tends to get very flustered on the mound when things aren't going his way. Avoid in one year leagues, keep on your minor league roster in leagues that have them.
2008 NL-Only, with projected job:Delwyn Young, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (reserve OF/2B)
Casey Weathers, RHP, Colorado Rockies (short middle relief)
Chin-Lung Hu, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (reserve SS/2B)
Eugenio Velez, OF, San Francisco Giants (reserve OF/2B)
Joe Koshansky, 1B, Colorado Rockies (reserve 1B)
Seth Smith, OF, Colorado Rockies (reserve OF)
Brooks Brown, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief, possible #5 starter)
Emilio Bonifacio, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks (reserve 2B)
Billy Buckner, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief, possible #5 starter)
Juan Gutierrez, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief, possible #4 starter)
Esmerling Vasquez, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (middle relief)
Max Scherzer, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (short middle relief)
Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF, San Francisco Giants (reserve OF)
Wade LeBlanc, LHP, San Diego Padres (middle relief, possible #5 starter)
Billy Sadler, RHP, San Francisco Giants (short middle relief)
Juan Morillo, RHP, Colorado Rockies (short middle relief)
Osiris Matos, RHP, San Francisco Giants (short middle relief)
Nick Pereira, RHP, San Francisco Giants (middle relief)
John Bowker, OF, San Francisco Giants (reserve OF)
Jamie D'Antona, 1B/C/3B, Arizona Diamondbacks (reserve 1B/C/3B)
Click here for a look at the NL Central.
Click here for a look at the NL East.