Round Eleven11. 1.
Brett Anderson11. 2.
Michael Cuddyer11. 3. Brian Wilson11. 4.
Denard Span11. 5.
Matt Garza11. 6.
Carlos Gonzalez11. 7.
Carlos Zambrano11. 8.
Max Scherzer11. 9.
Scott Baker11. 10.
Jason Kubel11. 11.
Howie Kendrick11. 12.
Alfonso SorianoTalking PointsCarlos Zambrano still draws high selections in fantasy drafts even though he hasn't posted elite numbers in over two years. Some guys simply feed off of name recognition and reputation, and Big Z fits the bill on both counts. He's known for having a fiery attitude and casual fans often equate that with a high-velocity fastball. Truth is, Zambrano's fastball has dropped progressively since he first arrived in the show back in 2002 with a heater that averaged 92.8 MPH throughout his rookie season. The same pitch fell to 92.2 in 2006, 91.6 in 2007, 91.3 in 2008 and settled at 91.2 last year.
Zambrano never threw fewer than 209 innings during a five-year stretch between 2003-2007 and the overuse is obviously catching up to him. We like to avoid train wrecks around these parts. You should too.Best ValueBrett Anderson burst onto the scene last year with 11 wins, a 4.06 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and 150 strikeouts in 175 1/3 innings. He had never touched a major league rubber before his early April debut and he was impressive all season. Will he build on it in 2010? There are
skeptics, including a few well-read national baseball columnists, but finding a guy with Anderson's potential at the top of the 11th round feels like a real treat.
Round Twelve12. 1.
James Shields12. 2.
Alex Rios12. 3.
Rickie Weeks12. 4.
Carlos Marmol12. 5.
Nyjer Morgan12. 6.
Roy Oswalt12. 7.
Jorge Posada12. 8.
Vladimir Guerrero12. 9.
Jair Jurrjens12. 10. A.J. Burnett12. 11.
James Loney12. 12.
Tim HudsonTalking PointsI'll admit, I let out an audible laugh when Alex Rios fell off the board with the second pick of the 12th round. Rios posted an ugly .246 batting average, .296 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage last season and smacked only 17 home runs in 633 plate appearances between the Blue Jays and White Sox. His exorbitant salary will keep him in Chicago's lineup, but there are far better outfield options available in mixed leagues. Unless you want to count on a total rebound, avoid Rios.James Loney has had a truly interesting start to his career. The first baseman, now 25, first made noise in the National League West back in 2006 when he rattled off 15 home runs and a .331/.381/.538 batting line in 96 games for the Dodgers. He failed to improve upon his power numbers in 2008, though, and then left many a fantasy owner upset last season when he hit just .281/.357/.399 with 13 dingers in 576 at-bats.
Loney has displayed great plate discipline and he boasts a decently slick glove over at first base, but he has not mastered the art of power-hitting at Chavez Ravine. In fact, Loney batted just .251/.324/.316 with one home run at Dodger Stadium last season. I'm not so sure he will ever figure it out.Best ValueSome fantasy owners like to stock up on power and speed in the first nine or 10 rounds, even grabbing a bat to fill the oft-present utility spot. Tim Dierkes, who runs the ship over at
MLB Trade Rumors, drafted
Vladimir Guerrero with the 140th overall pick in our little rehearsal draft and drew rave reviews from almost every other mock league member. The praise was deserved. Vlad should do extraordinarily well in the Rangers' tightly enclosed ballpark this season and Tim was wise enough to add him at a time when others were searching for starting pitching flier picks. Guerrero won't be asked to play the outfield in Texas so he should be able to stay healthy and he boasts a .394/.471/.705 batting line in 50 career games at the Rangers' home park. The American League West is going to be an awfully fun division to watch this season.
Questions, comments, verbal abuse? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.
This column is part of an ongoing series recapping an intentionally slow-moving baseball industry mock draft that I recently hosted over at the excellent
CouchManagers.com. Part One covered the first six rounds and can be found
at this link. Below I'll wrap up rounds seven through 12 with a fair share of hard-hitting analysis.
If you need a refresher, here's the crew that helped me pull this thing off:
Team 1:
Eno Sarris (
FanGraphs.com,
FantasyLoungeSports.com)
Team 2:
Auto-Queue (Computer-run)
Team 3:
Drew Silva (That's Me!)
Team 4:
Steve Gardner (
USA Today)
Team 5:
Tim Dierkes (
MLBTradeRumors,
RotoAuthority)
Team 6:
Mike Axisa (
River Ave. Blues,
MLBTradeRumors)
Team 7:
Jesse Spector (
New York Daily News)
Team 8:
Sam Miller (
Orange County Register)
Team 9:
Chet Gresham (
Razzball.com)
Team 10:
Dan Wade (
Bleacher Report)
Team 11:
Thor Nystrom (
Rotoworld)
Team 12:
D.J. Short (
Rotoworld)
Oh, and if you haven't already checked out everything our annual
Rotoworld Draft Guide has to offer, what the heck are you waiting for?
[My picks can be found in bold, blue lettering.]Round Seven7. 1.
Hunter Pence7. 2.
Michael Young7. 3. Dan Uggla7. 4.
Billy Butler7. 5.
Andrew McCutchen7. 6.
Joe Nathan7. 7.
Matt Cain7. 8.
Matt Wieters7. 9.
Josh Hamilton7. 10.
Adam Jones7. 11.
Josh Beckett7. 12.
Shane VictorinoTalking PointsEvery year, in every fantasy baseball draft, a parade of closers begins streaming down the draft board right around pick No. 80. This mock took a little longer to embrace the saves category than most, but Joe Nathan being selected as the first or second overall ninth-inning hurler is likely to be a common theme throughout the spring. He has collected 35 or more saves in each of the last six seasons and converted 47-of-52 save chances in 2009 while posting an ERA of 2.10 and a WHIP of 0.93. He's as solid as it gets and the Twins boast a much-improved roster heading into 2010. Nathan also fans batters at a higher rate than most of the game's elite closers, including Mariano Rivera (taken in the 5th round of this mock). It never hurts to add a few more strikeouts to the mix.
Jonathan Broxton was the next closer to go, followed by Jonathan Papelbon, Joakim Soria, Heath Bell, Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Wilson. You'd have a tough time arguing against any of those picks. The fact is, saves are an important part of any category-based league and you can't deny the immense fantasy value of a solid closer.Best ValueJosh Hamilton has fallen past the fifth round in every mock draft I've participated in this winter and I can't exactly figure out why. Perhaps owners are worried that he won't be able to stay on the field for a full season -- a fair concern given his recent run of injuries -- but you can't deny the RBI potential that the big man boasts in that cozy ballpark down in Arlington and with the lineup the Rangers have assembled. Plus, he's no longer manning the physically-demanding center field position.
Julio Borbon is all set to take over that gig this season with Hamilton sliding to right. Whatever might be happening in Texas, his ADP (53) suggests that he was a stellar value pick in this mock draft.
Round Eight8. 1.
Tommy Hanson8. 2.
Alexei Ramirez8. 3.
Gordon Beckham8. 4.
Raul Ibanez8. 5.
Clayton Kershaw8. 6.
Jose Lopez8. 7.
Yunel Escobar8. 8.
Torii Hunter8. 9.
Jonathan Broxton8. 10. Jason Bartlett8. 11.
Javier Vazquez8. 12.
Yovani GallardoTalking PointsIt's pretty hard to understand why Alexei Ramirez was taken 86th overall in this draft, ahead of Yunel Escobar, Jason Bartlett, Stephen Drew, and even Elvis Andrus. The shortstop position is as thin as it's been in years and it is incredibly hard to find good value if you miss out on the top dogs. But if you're going to draft a shortstop in the eighth round this season make sure it's someone who has redeemable fantasy qualities.
Ramirez, 28, batted just .277/.333/.389 last season in 542 at-bats for the White Sox. He stole fewer bases than Barlett, drove in fewer runs than Escobar, and scored fewer runs than Drew. Let's not reward mediocrity, especially for a guy whose backup is a much better bet defensively (see: Omar Vizquel).Best ValueTommy Hanson has been all over the map in the mock drafts we've tracked this offseason. He's gone as high as the 54th overall pick and has dropped as low as No. 108. We like him right where he was selected in this mock draft, if not higher. The 23-year-old from Tulsa, Oklahoma went 11-4 last season with a 2.89 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 127 2/3 frames. He is the real deal, with a fastball that averaged 92.3 MPH in 2009 and a three-pitch complimentary arsenal that includes a sharp slider, curve and changeup. Grab him without hesitation; Hanson is going to be a star for many, many years to come.
Round Nine9. 1.
Jay Bruce9. 2.
Jonathan Papelbon9. 3. Carlos Pena9. 4.
Wandy Rodriguez9. 5.
Ubaldo Jimenez9. 6.
Chipper Jones9. 7.
Miguel Tejada9. 8.
Carlos Quentin9. 9.
Cole Hamels9. 10.
Chad Billingsley9. 11.
Michael Bourn9. 12.
Miguel MonteroTalking PointsMiguel Montero's ADP of 146 tells a different story, but I've run into plenty of fantasy industry professionals that have fallen in love with the 26-year-old Venezuelan backstop. It's easy to see why. Montero had a .316/.366/.534 batting line, 11 home runs and 40 RBI in 234 at-bats after the All-Star break last season. Stretch those numbers over a full slate of playing time and it's hard not to salivate.
Montero finally has the starting catching gig all to himself in Arizona, having usurped Chris Snyder, and is poised to top his breakout 2009 season. Jorge Posada, Russell Martin and Kurt Suzuki are all being selected before the youngster in mock drafts this winter. Be unique. Take a chance. You'll be happy you did the moment Posada hits the disabled list for a third time.Best ValueI never support reaching for stolen bases in fantasy drafts because I'm of the belief that steals can be found in the depths of draft boards if you just know where to look. That said, when a guy like
Michael Bourn falls so far off his average draft position (68) some explanation must be offered. Bourn, 27, batted a measly .285/.354/.384 last season and hit only three home runs in 606 at-bats for the Astros. He struck out 140 times and we're even expecting a small amount of regression at the plate this year. But we're not here to talk about power numbers or RBI. Bourn is drafted almost solely to swipe stolen bases, and he certainly did plenty of that last season. The speedy center fielder nabbed a National League best 61 bags in 2009 and was caught just 12 times. Sometimes making a nonsensical pick... just... makes sense.
Round Ten10. 1.
Stephen Drew10. 2.
Joakim Soria10. 3.
Heath Bell10. 4.
Elvis Andrus10. 5.
Jake Peavy10. 6.
Brad Hawpe10. 7.
Kurt Suzuki10. 8.
Ricky Nolasco10. 9.
John Lackey10. 10. Jered Weaver10. 11.
Brandon Webb10. 12.
Francisco RodriguezTalking PointsWith a quick scan of the names above you can tell the "parade of closers," as I like to call it, jammed into full swing soon after the 9th round passed. Soria, Bell and K-Rod are all fine options, especially in the 10th round of a 5x5 league that considers saves a standalone category. Like 'em or not, closers are a major part of the fantasy game and it's important to grab a few reliable ninth-inning men while they are still around. Staying active on the waiver wire can help as well. Injuries happen to everyone in this post-Ripken era and some managers like to play around with bullpen responsibilities more than others.
Stay alert, keep up with our constantly-updated player news page, and check out Rotoworld's Season Pass when it's made available April 1. We wouldn't promote the thing so much if we weren't proud of it. The Rotoworld crew is more than happy to guide you to the promised land.Enough preaching. Let's get back to the good stuff.
Best ValueThe real prize in this round was almost certainly
Ricky Nolasco and you might as well make a mental check-note of where he was taken in this particular mock draft. Most owners will be scared off by the 5.06 ERA he posted last season and his unimpressive 13-9 win-loss record, but peel back the surface and you'll find a few fantasy treasures. For instance, the 27-year-old right-hander struck out 195 batters last season in just 185 innings and his WHIP finished at a respectable mark of 1.25. There's a whole lot to like about Nolasco and selecting him before his current average draft position (108) is advised.
Round Eleven11. 1.
Brett Anderson11. 2.
Michael Cuddyer11. 3. Brian Wilson11. 4.
Denard Span11. 5.
Matt Garza11. 6.
Carlos Gonzalez11. 7.
Carlos Zambrano11. 8.
Max Scherzer11. 9.
Scott Baker11. 10.
Jason Kubel11. 11.
Howie Kendrick11. 12.
Alfonso SorianoTalking PointsCarlos Zambrano still draws high selections in fantasy drafts even though he hasn't posted elite numbers in over two years. Some guys simply feed off of name recognition and reputation, and Big Z fits the bill on both counts. He's known for having a fiery attitude and casual fans often equate that with a high-velocity fastball. Truth is, Zambrano's fastball has dropped progressively since he first arrived in the show back in 2002 with a heater that averaged 92.8 MPH throughout his rookie season. The same pitch fell to 92.2 in 2006, 91.6 in 2007, 91.3 in 2008 and settled at 91.2 last year.
Zambrano never threw fewer than 209 innings during a five-year stretch between 2003-2007 and the overuse is obviously catching up to him. We like to avoid train wrecks around these parts. You should too.Best ValueBrett Anderson burst onto the scene last year with 11 wins, a 4.06 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and 150 strikeouts in 175 1/3 innings. He had never touched a major league rubber before his early April debut and he was impressive all season. Will he build on it in 2010? There are
skeptics, including a few well-read national baseball columnists, but finding a guy with Anderson's potential at the top of the 11th round feels like a real treat.
Round Twelve12. 1.
James Shields12. 2.
Alex Rios12. 3.
Rickie Weeks12. 4.
Carlos Marmol12. 5.
Nyjer Morgan12. 6.
Roy Oswalt12. 7.
Jorge Posada12. 8.
Vladimir Guerrero12. 9.
Jair Jurrjens12. 10. A.J. Burnett12. 11.
James Loney12. 12.
Tim HudsonTalking PointsI'll admit, I let out an audible laugh when Alex Rios fell off the board with the second pick of the 12th round. Rios posted an ugly .246 batting average, .296 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage last season and smacked only 17 home runs in 633 plate appearances between the Blue Jays and White Sox. His exorbitant salary will keep him in Chicago's lineup, but there are far better outfield options available in mixed leagues. Unless you want to count on a total rebound, avoid Rios.James Loney has had a truly interesting start to his career. The first baseman, now 25, first made noise in the National League West back in 2006 when he rattled off 15 home runs and a .331/.381/.538 batting line in 96 games for the Dodgers. He failed to improve upon his power numbers in 2008, though, and then left many a fantasy owner upset last season when he hit just .281/.357/.399 with 13 dingers in 576 at-bats.
Loney has displayed great plate discipline and he boasts a decently slick glove over at first base, but he has not mastered the art of power-hitting at Chavez Ravine. In fact, Loney batted just .251/.324/.316 with one home run at Dodger Stadium last season. I'm not so sure he will ever figure it out.Best ValueSome fantasy owners like to stock up on power and speed in the first nine or 10 rounds, even grabbing a bat to fill the oft-present utility spot. Tim Dierkes, who runs the ship over at
MLB Trade Rumors, drafted
Vladimir Guerrero with the 140th overall pick in our little rehearsal draft and drew rave reviews from almost every other mock league member. The praise was deserved. Vlad should do extraordinarily well in the Rangers' tightly enclosed ballpark this season and Tim was wise enough to add him at a time when others were searching for starting pitching flier picks. Guerrero won't be asked to play the outfield in Texas so he should be able to stay healthy and he boasts a .394/.471/.705 batting line in 50 career games at the Rangers' home park. The American League West is going to be an awfully fun division to watch this season.
Questions, comments, verbal abuse? Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.