Eno Sarris

Draft Strategy

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NFBC Draft Analysis (Part 2)

Thursday, April 01, 2010

Earlier this week, we looked at rounds 1-10 of my National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft. This 15-team, 30-round behemoth of a draft should give you deep league drafters a sense of the where the less heralded players are going. In particular, rounds 10-30 should help uncover some deeper sleepers and go where many other mock drafts don't go.

So let's take a look at the some of the most important rounds in any draft. Remember to root for me as I compete for the $100,000 prize! Below are the results of rounds 10-30. We'll have to move a little faster in order to get through all these rounds, so we're picking up the pace. My picks are in bold, blue lettering.

11. 1. Rafael Furcal
11. 2. Mike Napoli
11. 3. Kurt Suzuki
11. 4. Adam LaRoche
11. 5. Francisco Liriano
11. 6. Alcides Escobar
11. 7. Gavin Floyd
11. 8. Chipper Jones
11. 9. Raul Ibanez
11. 10. Bengie Molina
11. 11. Vladimir Guerrero
11. 12. Max Scherzer
11. 13. Ryan Dempster
11. 14. Tim Hudson
11. 15. Mark Buehrle

12. 1. Carlos Zambrano
12. 2. Chad Qualls
12. 3. Frank Francisco
12. 4. Rich Harden
12. 5. Paul Konerko
12. 6. Ryan Ludwick
12. 7. Jorge De La Rosa
12. 8. Johnny Damon
12. 9. Kevin Slowey
12. 10. Ted Lilly
12. 11. [Missing Pick]
12. 12. David Aardsma
12. 13. Jonathan Sanchez
12. 14. David Price
12. 15. Ryan Franklin

13. 1. Colby Rasmus
13. 2. Brad Hawpe
13. 3. Trevor Hoffman
13. 4. Brian Fuentes
13. 5. Huston Street
13. 6. Michael Cuddyer
13. 7. Chris Coghlan
13. 8. Brad Lidge
13. 9. Vernon Wells
13. 10. Mike Gonzalez
13. 11. Rick Porcello
13. 12. Phil Hughes
13. 13. Jorge Cantu
13. 14. Dexter Fowler
13. 15. Mark Teahen

Best Values: Getting Tim Hudson with the 164th pick of the draft has to count as a victory. His groundball percentage and strikeout rate last year rebounded well with his fresh elbow ligament in place, and it seems to follow that he'll do better with more rehab under his belt. Francisco Liriano is a much riskier bet, with a much bigger upside. Ted Lilly is in the same mold as Hudson: injury has made him undervalued – but Lilly's injury was mostly to his knee. The shoulder portion of his surgery was minor.

In the thirteenth round, getting Brad Hawpe and his solid power and batting average is a coup – fantasy owners don't have to worry about his poor defense. Chad Qualls is an excellent closer to get this late. Philip Hughes and Dexter Fowler are some nice upside picks in that round, though Fowler's playing time situation is a little cloudy.

Questionable Selections: Of course, with the "two catchers" portion of the lineup staring them in the face, teams have to pick somebody to play the position, but Kurt Suzuki won't hit many home runs and won't steal many bases. His upside is sort of like 75% of Russell Martin's work a few years back. Not so exciting, and the slower-than-molasses Bengie Molina is even worse considering his age and the surging Buster Posey behind him.

Maybe Jonathan Sanchez finally walks under four batters a game this year… maybe. Vernon Wells and Mark Teahen don't do much but take up a position on the lineup chart, not sure what reasons for excitement they provide. Then again, Wells gets lucky with the batted balls every once in a while, so it could happen again.

This draft is starting to get deep! Our award-winning Rotoworld Draft Guide goes even deeper and has all sorts of cheat sheets, rankings and analysis. Check it out. You won't be sorry.

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Eno Sarris is an editor and writer at FanGraphs.com. You can find his work gathered in one place at and enosarris.com. Follow his misadventures in writing on Twitter as well.
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