Closing Machines on the Fritz
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
So much can happen in a week when it comes to closers.
You think everything is settled, and then - bam - your world is upside down. It's like an action flick sequence running rough shod through your fantasy bullpen. Suddenly you are picking up the broken pieces and wondering why you ever thought
Fernando Rodney would manage to hold on to that job despite being such a below-average pitcher.
In that honor, we'll name this week's tiers after action flicks! And, by the way, this is no exhaustive list, nor should omissions mean anything. It's just five movie franchises that represent different talent levels.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Die Hard" Tier.)Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Let's just put Mo in the top tier, he belongs here until we get a hint that the end is near, that he's ready to yell 'yippee-kai-yay' and ride off into the sunset. Everybody else in this tier is still doing well. Even a poor effort from this group is a strong effort, just like the Die Hard franchise itself. You still get the classic lines, the big explosions - and even in lesser parts of the trilogy, there are still airplanes hitting tankers, or two strikeouts and a baserunner of some sort.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "Matrix" Tier.)Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
If you walk as many guys as Carlos Marmol does, you are going to blow the occasional save. That just makes him a second-tier option, and moves him down the list a tiny bit, but it doesn't mean that he's a bad closer. It just means that, like the Matrix movies, his great efforts will be awesome, and his lesser efforts, well, massively disappointing really.All the talk about Joe Nathan sharing opportunities with Matt Capps have gone out the window, making our ranking of Joe Nathan so high seem prescient. On the other hand, Nathan still hasn't quite got the velocity or command back to his pre-surgery days, so we can't move him too far.Let's give Jonathan Papelbon more time before we decide which way he's headed. He did manage three strikeouts in one appearance, but also let in a run on two hits. Brian Wilson might head up in the rankings once he shows he's healthy.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Bourne Identity" Tier.)Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Comment:The Bourne Identity movies are sort of steady Eddie: you won't get elite action out of them, but they're usually solid. These guys, wether it's because of their team situation or peripherals, aren't quite elite closers either. The only question with J.J. Putz is his health, but after a slight back issue in spring training, he's dealing now. Chris Perez has a save and hasn't given up a run yet, but he also hasn't managed a strikeout in two innings so far.Craig Kimbrel deserves his own mention. He has five strikeouts in two innings and looks legit. Even though the team said at first that he would share opportunities with lefty Jonny Venters, Kimbrel has faced lefties in both of his save opportunities and has dominated. We have to watch his walk rate - he has a Carlos-Marmol-ian statistical profile - but so far so good. No walks on the young season.It's hard to move guys around too much based on one weekend, but Joel Hanrahan is the sole closer and he's acted like it. One walk, three hits and five strikeouts in his first three saves works just fine.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Pirates of the Carribbean" Tier.)Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Comment:Jonathan Broxton should be at the head of this slightly wonky tier. You'll get some saves from him - three so far - but he's not quite right just yet. He's given up two home runs in three home games so far, and only gave up eight home runs in the last two years combined, or six home runs in 211 career games. Watching him, you get sort of that same uncomfortable feeling you get when you're enjoying a good stretch in one of these movies, and you're not sure you should be.Jon Axford completely melted down in his first save attempt, but it wasn't all his fault. Third baseman Casey McGehee got no outs from a double play - like water from a stone. Even one out there helps the closer out. At least he got back on the horse, and at least it wasn't all about his control. Watch his walk rate, that matters most.Kevin Gregg joins this group because he got the first save chance in Baltimore, which seemed like an open question mark. Koji Uehara might still take the job, but at this point it looks like it will take some sort of implosion from Gregg.Oh, and Jordan Walden? He's immediately Johnny Depp. We told you how bad Fernando Rodney is, and it didn't take his manager long to see it too. Rodney is out and though Walden wasn't immediately officially announced as the closer, he got the first save. His big fastball should work, don't look too hard at his minor league numbers. He used to be a starter then.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (9) (AKA: The "Spiderman" Tier.)Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies
Sean Burnett /
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays
Brian Fuentes /
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Kyle Farnsworth /
Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays
Comment:Brandon Lyon is just as terrible as we thought he was, and he could easily lose the role to Wilton Lopez any day. That's a handcuff you must make if you are depending on Lyon to close.
So much can happen in a week when it comes to closers.
You think everything is settled, and then - bam - your world is upside down. It's like an action flick sequence running rough shod through your fantasy bullpen. Suddenly you are picking up the broken pieces and wondering why you ever thought
Fernando Rodney would manage to hold on to that job despite being such a below-average pitcher.
In that honor, we'll name this week's tiers after action flicks! And, by the way, this is no exhaustive list, nor should omissions mean anything. It's just five movie franchises that represent different talent levels.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Die Hard" Tier.)Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Let's just put Mo in the top tier, he belongs here until we get a hint that the end is near, that he's ready to yell 'yippee-kai-yay' and ride off into the sunset. Everybody else in this tier is still doing well. Even a poor effort from this group is a strong effort, just like the Die Hard franchise itself. You still get the classic lines, the big explosions - and even in lesser parts of the trilogy, there are still airplanes hitting tankers, or two strikeouts and a baserunner of some sort.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "Matrix" Tier.)Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
If you walk as many guys as Carlos Marmol does, you are going to blow the occasional save. That just makes him a second-tier option, and moves him down the list a tiny bit, but it doesn't mean that he's a bad closer. It just means that, like the Matrix movies, his great efforts will be awesome, and his lesser efforts, well, massively disappointing really.All the talk about Joe Nathan sharing opportunities with Matt Capps have gone out the window, making our ranking of Joe Nathan so high seem prescient. On the other hand, Nathan still hasn't quite got the velocity or command back to his pre-surgery days, so we can't move him too far.Let's give Jonathan Papelbon more time before we decide which way he's headed. He did manage three strikeouts in one appearance, but also let in a run on two hits. Brian Wilson might head up in the rankings once he shows he's healthy.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Bourne Identity" Tier.)Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Comment:The Bourne Identity movies are sort of steady Eddie: you won't get elite action out of them, but they're usually solid. These guys, wether it's because of their team situation or peripherals, aren't quite elite closers either. The only question with J.J. Putz is his health, but after a slight back issue in spring training, he's dealing now. Chris Perez has a save and hasn't given up a run yet, but he also hasn't managed a strikeout in two innings so far.Craig Kimbrel deserves his own mention. He has five strikeouts in two innings and looks legit. Even though the team said at first that he would share opportunities with lefty Jonny Venters, Kimbrel has faced lefties in both of his save opportunities and has dominated. We have to watch his walk rate - he has a Carlos-Marmol-ian statistical profile - but so far so good. No walks on the young season.It's hard to move guys around too much based on one weekend, but Joel Hanrahan is the sole closer and he's acted like it. One walk, three hits and five strikeouts in his first three saves works just fine.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Pirates of the Carribbean" Tier.)Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Comment:Jonathan Broxton should be at the head of this slightly wonky tier. You'll get some saves from him - three so far - but he's not quite right just yet. He's given up two home runs in three home games so far, and only gave up eight home runs in the last two years combined, or six home runs in 211 career games. Watching him, you get sort of that same uncomfortable feeling you get when you're enjoying a good stretch in one of these movies, and you're not sure you should be.Jon Axford completely melted down in his first save attempt, but it wasn't all his fault. Third baseman Casey McGehee got no outs from a double play - like water from a stone. Even one out there helps the closer out. At least he got back on the horse, and at least it wasn't all about his control. Watch his walk rate, that matters most.Kevin Gregg joins this group because he got the first save chance in Baltimore, which seemed like an open question mark. Koji Uehara might still take the job, but at this point it looks like it will take some sort of implosion from Gregg.Oh, and Jordan Walden? He's immediately Johnny Depp. We told you how bad Fernando Rodney is, and it didn't take his manager long to see it too. Rodney is out and though Walden wasn't immediately officially announced as the closer, he got the first save. His big fastball should work, don't look too hard at his minor league numbers. He used to be a starter then.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (9) (AKA: The "Spiderman" Tier.)Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies
Sean Burnett /
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays
Brian Fuentes /
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Kyle Farnsworth /
Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays
Comment:Brandon Lyon is just as terrible as we thought he was, and he could easily lose the role to Wilton Lopez any day. That's a handcuff you must make if you are depending on Lyon to close. Jose Contreras moves up because his front office ridiculed Ryan Madson's ability to close publicly this week. Wow. Seems crazy, but maybe there's a reason to mock your player in public that isn't obvious here. I mean, mock Toby Maguire, yes. Mock a perfectly capable bullpen pitcher who has blown some saves in his past? Doesn't seem right.Among the injury replacements in the group, Brandon League is the safest in the meantime. David Aardsma is feeling better in his bullpen sessions, but League is the sole man at the end of that pen in the meantime.Washington is up in the air right now. With four pitches and the pedigree of being a to college closer and draft pick, Drew Storen should be the long-term answer there if he can get it together. In the meantime, both he and Sean Burnett need to be owned, and that's a shame.In Tampa Bay, we're just waiting for more information. The team needs to score enough runs to be in a save chance before we can know how bad the bullpen situation actually is. Might say the same about Oakland, where both Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour have had bad appearances in the young season.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays (strained pectoral)
David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (hip surgery)
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics (forearm tightness)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Comment:David Aardsma is doing good but there's no timetable set yet for his return. Frank Francisco is starting his rehab appearance and should be back within the week - if he's on your wire he makes for a great DL stash right now.The news about Andrew Bailey and Brad Lidge is a little bit murkier. Bailey has managed three straight long-toss sessions that went well, but that's just long-toss and nothing else has yet been approved. Brad Lidge has been shut down completely for three-to-six weeks, and his manager thought he might be back by the All-Star break. So that's not great.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Fernando Rodney deserves to be here, but it's sort of surprising how quick he ended up on this list. Drew Storen might be on his way here, but it's not set in stone yet.* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentHe's not Jayson Werth, and he doesn't have the upside of injured rookie Domonic Brown. But Ben Francisco can play. He has 20/20 upside, and even if it doesn't come with the greatest batting average, that will be useful on most teams. He has some platoon issues, but they've been over-rated in the past, and now the team is sort of stuck without anyone else to fill the role. While he's starting every day and running a little bit, he's a great end-of-bench guy in most leagues.Michael Brantley seems to make it on this list every year. Right now, he's playing center field every day with Grady Sizemore on the mend, and he's stealing bases and taking walks. That's a great combination, and he's at least a good short-term add. He's not a bad long-term add either - do you think Austin Kearns and Shelley Duncan would keep Brantley down if he was showing plus D and the ability to get on base and flash some wheels? There's a chance Brantley is relevant all year, and doesn't need to return to this list again.