Hit The Road, Matt Thornton?
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
This is
Saves and Steals. We are not going to talk about
Manny Ramirez here.
Well, we are, but just to set up the tiers this week. Because Manny went out in such an explosion of bad that he set a new basement for retiring with grace and class. He was a great hitter, but that was a terrible ending. Craptacular even.
And so, the tiers this week are labeled by players ranked by their ability to 'go out on top.' Somewhere in this muddled mess you'll find plenty of information about non-Manny-Ramirez relievers and speedsters, we promise.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Ted Wiliams" Tier.)Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Ted Williams hit 29 home runs in fewer than 400 at-bats in his final season - and hit a home run on his final at-bat ever. He's the gold standard for retirements, and these are the gold standards for closers this year. John Elway, who won a title on his way out, would provide the football version. There's really only one worry on this list is the fact that Soria only has two strikeouts in his six-plus innings. And that's not a huge worry just yet. Well, let's say that wouldn't normally be a problem if he wasn't also suffering from a two-mile-per-hour drop in his fastball velocity. It's not like Soria's history is without injury - if you can get a solid, healthy closer back, along with an upgrade elsewhere, it wouldn't be crazy to trade His Mexcellence away.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "George Brett" Tier.)Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Brett hit .266 with 19 home runs and played 145 games in his final season, which is a respectable final season. Tiki Barber rushed for a ton of yards in his last season. These guys were "Rock Steady" into their twilights, like these closers.This tier has seen some upheaval recently. Gone is Matt Thornton, and down a couple ticks goes Brian Wilson… for now. The Beach Boy hasn't returned with his full beard-force, but let's give him a little slack since he missed time with injury and is just now getting up to speed, as evidenced by Tuesday's nights excellent work.To replace Thornton, we have Braves wunderkind Craig Kimbrel joining the second tier in his first season. He's not ceding save chances to lefty Jonny Venters, and he's blowing people away with his big fastball and nasty slider. The possible control problems haven't even surfaced yet - one walk so far.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Tony Gwyn" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Comment:Tony Gwynn hit .324 in his final season, but only managed 71 games. That's an okay way to go out - he still had his skills, but health failed him. In the same way, this tier has skills, but a flaw or two keeps them from joining the top tier.J.J Putz hasn't walked a guy and is performing well - but health always lurks in the background. Francisco Rodriguez has a nice strikeout rate and is obviously an elite closer on skills alone - but he's walked too many so far this year and who knows what team he'll be on at the end of the year. Jose Valverde is strong now but has also failed to pitch more than 55 innings in half of his seasons, so health is a lingering question for him. Chris Perez is nice, but he still hasn't struck out a batter per inning in the American League.Huston street has a whopping five saves already, and has been getting steady work all week. He even went to three innings last Friday. If he's healthy all year, he'll end up a strong second-tier option. Joel Hanrahan has eight strikeouts against one walk, and Evan Meek is hurting, so he moves up a little inside the tier as well.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Dale Murphy" Tier.)Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals
Comment:If we opened this up to other sports, Brett Favre would name this tier (and really, it's amazing that Manny could top Favre). Instead, it's Dale Murphy, who was traded out of Atlanta after injuries ravaged him and left him a below-mendoza corner outfielder. Sad ending to a shortish but great career. Let's just tackle the new closer in the tier, shan't we? We will list him alone as the closer for now, but there's obviously some cause for concern for Matt Thornton owners. But! He had the best fastball in the league last year (which is good because he used it more than anyone else, too), and he's been great ever since he put on the black and silver. He's had some defensive help in blowing his saves this year, but his manager is talking about going to a committee. The problem with using that press conference as a jump-off point is this: Ozzie Guillen also said, in the same presser, that Thornton would have gotten the ball Sunday had he not thrown so many pitches Saturday. Sergio Santos, Jesse Crain and Chris Sale are all handcuffs and this is an open sore of a situation. Thornton is a good pitcher and could easily come out on top, so we'll leave him here just to remind you that it is too soon to drop him.It's tempting to move Jonathan Broxton up since he's been successful in his save chances so far, but his velocity hasn't recovered its' peak speed, and he's getting about half the swinging strikes that he got last year. He's not completely right, and his one strikeout on the year confirms the diagnosis.Same verse, same as the first for Francisco Cordero, whose velocity is down from last year's career-worst. He's also getting the fewest swinging strikes of his career and is so far surviving on the fact that he hasn't walked a batter yet. Okay, but not solid.
This is
Saves and Steals. We are not going to talk about
Manny Ramirez here.
Well, we are, but just to set up the tiers this week. Because Manny went out in such an explosion of bad that he set a new basement for retiring with grace and class. He was a great hitter, but that was a terrible ending. Craptacular even.
And so, the tiers this week are labeled by players ranked by their ability to 'go out on top.' Somewhere in this muddled mess you'll find plenty of information about non-Manny-Ramirez relievers and speedsters, we promise.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Ted Wiliams" Tier.)Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Ted Williams hit 29 home runs in fewer than 400 at-bats in his final season - and hit a home run on his final at-bat ever. He's the gold standard for retirements, and these are the gold standards for closers this year. John Elway, who won a title on his way out, would provide the football version. There's really only one worry on this list is the fact that Soria only has two strikeouts in his six-plus innings. And that's not a huge worry just yet. Well, let's say that wouldn't normally be a problem if he wasn't also suffering from a two-mile-per-hour drop in his fastball velocity. It's not like Soria's history is without injury - if you can get a solid, healthy closer back, along with an upgrade elsewhere, it wouldn't be crazy to trade His Mexcellence away.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "George Brett" Tier.)Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Brett hit .266 with 19 home runs and played 145 games in his final season, which is a respectable final season. Tiki Barber rushed for a ton of yards in his last season. These guys were "Rock Steady" into their twilights, like these closers.This tier has seen some upheaval recently. Gone is Matt Thornton, and down a couple ticks goes Brian Wilson… for now. The Beach Boy hasn't returned with his full beard-force, but let's give him a little slack since he missed time with injury and is just now getting up to speed, as evidenced by Tuesday's nights excellent work.To replace Thornton, we have Braves wunderkind Craig Kimbrel joining the second tier in his first season. He's not ceding save chances to lefty Jonny Venters, and he's blowing people away with his big fastball and nasty slider. The possible control problems haven't even surfaced yet - one walk so far.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Tony Gwyn" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Comment:Tony Gwynn hit .324 in his final season, but only managed 71 games. That's an okay way to go out - he still had his skills, but health failed him. In the same way, this tier has skills, but a flaw or two keeps them from joining the top tier.J.J Putz hasn't walked a guy and is performing well - but health always lurks in the background. Francisco Rodriguez has a nice strikeout rate and is obviously an elite closer on skills alone - but he's walked too many so far this year and who knows what team he'll be on at the end of the year. Jose Valverde is strong now but has also failed to pitch more than 55 innings in half of his seasons, so health is a lingering question for him. Chris Perez is nice, but he still hasn't struck out a batter per inning in the American League.Huston street has a whopping five saves already, and has been getting steady work all week. He even went to three innings last Friday. If he's healthy all year, he'll end up a strong second-tier option. Joel Hanrahan has eight strikeouts against one walk, and Evan Meek is hurting, so he moves up a little inside the tier as well.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Dale Murphy" Tier.)Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals
Comment:If we opened this up to other sports, Brett Favre would name this tier (and really, it's amazing that Manny could top Favre). Instead, it's Dale Murphy, who was traded out of Atlanta after injuries ravaged him and left him a below-mendoza corner outfielder. Sad ending to a shortish but great career. Let's just tackle the new closer in the tier, shan't we? We will list him alone as the closer for now, but there's obviously some cause for concern for Matt Thornton owners. But! He had the best fastball in the league last year (which is good because he used it more than anyone else, too), and he's been great ever since he put on the black and silver. He's had some defensive help in blowing his saves this year, but his manager is talking about going to a committee. The problem with using that press conference as a jump-off point is this: Ozzie Guillen also said, in the same presser, that Thornton would have gotten the ball Sunday had he not thrown so many pitches Saturday. Sergio Santos, Jesse Crain and Chris Sale are all handcuffs and this is an open sore of a situation. Thornton is a good pitcher and could easily come out on top, so we'll leave him here just to remind you that it is too soon to drop him.It's tempting to move Jonathan Broxton up since he's been successful in his save chances so far, but his velocity hasn't recovered its' peak speed, and he's getting about half the swinging strikes that he got last year. He's not completely right, and his one strikeout on the year confirms the diagnosis.Same verse, same as the first for Francisco Cordero, whose velocity is down from last year's career-worst. He's also getting the fewest swinging strikes of his career and is so far surviving on the fact that he hasn't walked a batter yet. Okay, but not solid. Another couple of notes: Fernando Rodney got the save Sunday, but his manager said that Jordan Walden had thrown too many pitches the night before and is still his closer. Ryan Franklin is still the Cardinals' closer, but he had a tough week, and Jason Motte had a much better strikeout rate last year (and even hit a home run Monday).
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (9) (AKA: The "Manny Ramirez" Tier.)Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies
Brian Fuentes, Oakland Athletics
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays
Sean Burnett /
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Comment:Manny left the league at the very nadir of his career. His exit was so bad it's the new platinum standard. His name is now synonymous with walking away from wrongdoing in order to avoid punishment. You might (*might*) want to walk away from some of these closers because they'll just give you heartburn.The upper portion of this tier is mostly filled with capable closers that have an expiration date. By talent alone, they could all be Question Marks, but you have to acknowledge that they'll only be around until the head honcho returns from rehab.Drew Storen: the velocity is there, but he isn't using his curveball. Then again, in his last four innings he has four strikeouts and one walk and only one hit. You know the team wants him to win out in the end, if only to justify his draft position. On the other hand, Burnett is no slouch and hasn't walked a guy this year. You'll just have to handcuff those to each other for a while.Brandon Lyon is not a great pitcher, and he looked absolutely terrible throwing high 88-MPH cutters in the first game of the season. But since blowing that save, Lyon hasn't given up a walk or a run. He might last all year despite being so mediocre. Wilton Lopez gets groundballs and doesn't walk people, but has a platoon split. Mark Melancon might actually next in line to be the closer, so watch his usage. You might say the same thing about Kyle Farnsworth as you do about Brandon Lyon. Flawed pitcher, but it looks like the save chances are his for the time being. Jake McGee is scuffling and may not yet be ready for the job.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays (strained pectoral)
David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (hip surgery)
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics (forearm tightness)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Comment:Frank Francisco is on his rehab assignment - good. Frank Francisco is getting shelled on his rehab assignment - bad. Apparently, he's down more than a couple MPH on his fastball, and it might take a little more time before he's back up garnering saves. David Aardsma is throwing bullpens and fielding grounders, but doesn't have an official timetable yet. He's ahead of Andrew Bailey, who hasn't thrown a scheduled bullpen session yet, and Brad Lidge, who is still talking about the All-Star break.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
No-one here for now, and hopefully we won't see Matt Thornton here soon.* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentHe doesn't have any power really, and he's not a speed demon, but the most important thing about Maicer Izturis is that he's playing virtually every day. He's appeared in eight of ten games so far, and now with Erick Aybar on the disabled list, he should appear in even more going forward. With eligibilities all over the diamond, he could be a plug-and-play bench player in any league deeper than a 10-team mixed league - but even then he's a decent injury replacement. Sure, he's never topped 14 stolen bases in a full season since he was an Expo in 2004. He's also never topped 437 plate appearances. But he'll steal you a couple bases and have a decent batting average while Aybar is out. If you're in a deeper league, or have an injured shortstop, consider him in the short term.Two deeper league options this week. Sam Fuld was a hit short of the cycle on Monday night, so he's a newsy option. But power is not his game - getting on base and flashing wheels is more his deal. His yearly average in the minor leagues suggests that he could steal as many as 30 bases if given a full slate of at-bats in the major leagues. That used to be a problem, but with Manny Ramirez gone, DH at-bats can now go to Johnny Damon. Matt Joyce moves to the outfield, and there's Sam Fuld looking at everyday duty. If a decent batting average (or OBP) is what you need, Fuld is a good long-term pick up in deep leagues - and even has more upside than our first entrant in the Steals Department, despite being owned in about a quarter as many leagues. Guess he doesn't play the infield.