Calamity for Your Closers
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Fashion is a fickle beast. A brand successfully launches their look into our culture, that look becomes ubiquitous, and then, suddenly, it goes too far. And then those clothes are on your nearest discount rack or in your basement corner. Here today, gone tomorrow.
I'm no fashion expert, but that may be happening with uggs. Sure, they're probably comfy. And, with all the crap that women have to deal with to look good for men, women should be allowed some ugly comfy clothes. But men? We can rock the jeans and the t-shirt to half the social crap we go to. I just don't see this "uggs for men" idea working out very well.
In their honor, we'll rank this week's closers in tiers named after the worst fashion ideas for men in recent history. The worse the idea was, the better the closers.
Because perhaps nothing in your personal life will make you feel as silly as facing
Heath Bell as wearing big ugly fuzzy boot-moccasins last seen on your girlfriend's feet. (P.S.: Before you get too angry, know that I have personally rocked three of the looks below.) (P.P.S.: If you want visual evidence that these are bad ideas, check em out
here.)
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "uggs for men" Tier.)Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Jonathan Papelbon has recovered his lost velocity and control for the most part. That was all that was standing between him and his former elite self, so here you go - he's the newest member of the top group. He's making plenty of batters look like they are standing in a sea of uggs with his double-digit strikeout rate and minuscule walk rake. It's like last year never happened.Mariano Rivera has only pitched once in the past week and he blew the save. That even makes two blown saves in a row. We're still not worried, not really. He's walked two batters all year and his defense hasn't always been his best friend. He'll be fine.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "zubaz Hammer pants" Tier.)Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Yeah, Craig Kimbrel blew a save last week. But he also pitched in three straight games and had four strikeouts in fewer than four innings - that's what he can do for you. So far this season he has 14 strikeouts against a mere two walks, and control was supposed to be his problem. Batters flail at his electric fastball like they were wearing Hammer pants, and there's not really a reason to think he's getting lucky.If you like control, though, J.J. Putz is your man. No walks on the year! Jose Valverde's strikeout rate isn't quite the same as it used to be, but he's only giving up two walks of his own, and his split-finger has given him a great groundball rate over the past two years. As long as he's healthy, he's rock steady.Unfortunately, just when we thought Brian Wilson might join the elite tier and put some uggs on (that would be a sight), he completely imploded and gave up the deciding three runs against Atlanta on Sunday. He needs to find his control, stat. Carlos Marmol has never really had any control of where the ball is going, but his entire package seems much more risky now that he's 'only' striking out about 12 batters per nine innings. The 'golden' ratio for strikeouts-to-walks is three, and he's much closer to two right now. He's great, but he's also risky.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "sandals and socks" Tier.)Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Comment:If it's too cold to wear sandals, don't wear em. No half-measures. I mean, I've worn socks in my flip-flops if I'm running outside to take the trash out, but that's not quite 'in public.' Francisco Rodriguez is making batters look socks-and-sandals silly at the plate this year with 13 strikeouts in in a mere 8 2/3 innings, but he also has six walks… and a volatile team situation. That counts against him.Huston Street shook off some struggles from a few weeks ago by not walking a batter in five straight appearances. He has 15 strikeouts against four walks all year, and that is an elite ratio. Health will seemingly always be a question with him, but it's not stuff. Chris Prez, on the other hand, has been healthy, but has a mere four strikeouts in eight innings so far - against three walks. That's walking a tightrope. He's had a better strikeout rate in the past, though, so he's not falling just because he blew his first save of the year last week.Jordan Walden doesn't quite have the outerworldly strikeout rate that he showed when he first debuted, but he still has 97 MPH gas. Along with his clean slate so far, that's enough to move him into this tier.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "double popped collar" Tier.)Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Comment:Not everything that is okay is better if you do it twice. Like a couple of weeks ago, John Axford walked two guys, gave up a run and it was okay. The team still won. Then he tried the same feat a couple days later and it wasn't okay - the team lost. Obviously, he's dealing with some of his old control issues, and he's a blown save or two away from joining the bottom tier. At least he's been better over the past week - three appearances, five strikeouts, no walks. Kevin Gregg has only blown one save all year, but then again, he's only successfully converted three. He has eight strikeouts against five walks and has never had great control. In fact, he's been a very borderline closer his whole career. Behind him lurks Koji Uehara, who has seven strikeouts against three walks, has only given up one run all year, and has been generally excellent since joining the pen.And you know what, let's go ahead and call it. They haven't announced anything definitive yet, but Sean Burnett pitched in a loss the other day and Drew Storen has generally been pitching better and later in games. Burnett is droppable these days.Matt Capps? Still mediocre. But for now, he's the man. But remember, we once said pretty much this exact same thing about Ryan Franklin. If you can use his mediocrity to upgrade somewhere, this might be the time.
Fashion is a fickle beast. A brand successfully launches their look into our culture, that look becomes ubiquitous, and then, suddenly, it goes too far. And then those clothes are on your nearest discount rack or in your basement corner. Here today, gone tomorrow.
I'm no fashion expert, but that may be happening with uggs. Sure, they're probably comfy. And, with all the crap that women have to deal with to look good for men, women should be allowed some ugly comfy clothes. But men? We can rock the jeans and the t-shirt to half the social crap we go to. I just don't see this "uggs for men" idea working out very well.
In their honor, we'll rank this week's closers in tiers named after the worst fashion ideas for men in recent history. The worse the idea was, the better the closers.
Because perhaps nothing in your personal life will make you feel as silly as facing
Heath Bell as wearing big ugly fuzzy boot-moccasins last seen on your girlfriend's feet. (P.S.: Before you get too angry, know that I have personally rocked three of the looks below.) (P.P.S.: If you want visual evidence that these are bad ideas, check em out
here.)
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "uggs for men" Tier.)Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Jonathan Papelbon has recovered his lost velocity and control for the most part. That was all that was standing between him and his former elite self, so here you go - he's the newest member of the top group. He's making plenty of batters look like they are standing in a sea of uggs with his double-digit strikeout rate and minuscule walk rake. It's like last year never happened.Mariano Rivera has only pitched once in the past week and he blew the save. That even makes two blown saves in a row. We're still not worried, not really. He's walked two batters all year and his defense hasn't always been his best friend. He'll be fine.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "zubaz Hammer pants" Tier.)Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Yeah, Craig Kimbrel blew a save last week. But he also pitched in three straight games and had four strikeouts in fewer than four innings - that's what he can do for you. So far this season he has 14 strikeouts against a mere two walks, and control was supposed to be his problem. Batters flail at his electric fastball like they were wearing Hammer pants, and there's not really a reason to think he's getting lucky.If you like control, though, J.J. Putz is your man. No walks on the year! Jose Valverde's strikeout rate isn't quite the same as it used to be, but he's only giving up two walks of his own, and his split-finger has given him a great groundball rate over the past two years. As long as he's healthy, he's rock steady.Unfortunately, just when we thought Brian Wilson might join the elite tier and put some uggs on (that would be a sight), he completely imploded and gave up the deciding three runs against Atlanta on Sunday. He needs to find his control, stat. Carlos Marmol has never really had any control of where the ball is going, but his entire package seems much more risky now that he's 'only' striking out about 12 batters per nine innings. The 'golden' ratio for strikeouts-to-walks is three, and he's much closer to two right now. He's great, but he's also risky.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "sandals and socks" Tier.)Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Comment:If it's too cold to wear sandals, don't wear em. No half-measures. I mean, I've worn socks in my flip-flops if I'm running outside to take the trash out, but that's not quite 'in public.' Francisco Rodriguez is making batters look socks-and-sandals silly at the plate this year with 13 strikeouts in in a mere 8 2/3 innings, but he also has six walks… and a volatile team situation. That counts against him.Huston Street shook off some struggles from a few weeks ago by not walking a batter in five straight appearances. He has 15 strikeouts against four walks all year, and that is an elite ratio. Health will seemingly always be a question with him, but it's not stuff. Chris Prez, on the other hand, has been healthy, but has a mere four strikeouts in eight innings so far - against three walks. That's walking a tightrope. He's had a better strikeout rate in the past, though, so he's not falling just because he blew his first save of the year last week.Jordan Walden doesn't quite have the outerworldly strikeout rate that he showed when he first debuted, but he still has 97 MPH gas. Along with his clean slate so far, that's enough to move him into this tier.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "double popped collar" Tier.)Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Comment:Not everything that is okay is better if you do it twice. Like a couple of weeks ago, John Axford walked two guys, gave up a run and it was okay. The team still won. Then he tried the same feat a couple days later and it wasn't okay - the team lost. Obviously, he's dealing with some of his old control issues, and he's a blown save or two away from joining the bottom tier. At least he's been better over the past week - three appearances, five strikeouts, no walks. Kevin Gregg has only blown one save all year, but then again, he's only successfully converted three. He has eight strikeouts against five walks and has never had great control. In fact, he's been a very borderline closer his whole career. Behind him lurks Koji Uehara, who has seven strikeouts against three walks, has only given up one run all year, and has been generally excellent since joining the pen.And you know what, let's go ahead and call it. They haven't announced anything definitive yet, but Sean Burnett pitched in a loss the other day and Drew Storen has generally been pitching better and later in games. Burnett is droppable these days.Matt Capps? Still mediocre. But for now, he's the man. But remember, we once said pretty much this exact same thing about Ryan Franklin. If you can use his mediocrity to upgrade somewhere, this might be the time.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (9) (AKA: The "man jeggings" Tier.)Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Mitchell Boggs, St. Louis Cardinals
Darren Oliver, Texas Rangers
Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
Frank Francisco /
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays
Brian Fuentes, Oakland Athletics
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Jonathan Broxton / Vincente Padilla /
Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers
Comment:Look, we know the world's jeans have gotten tighter. And that's fine. But when they get so tight that they are just leggings that look like jeans, then you're doing it wrong. And in this tier, it's the closers wearing the jeggings and looking silly.Mitchell Boggs might be the guy that holds his job all year, at least it looked that way until Tuesday night's blowup. And really, Tuesday night was a comedy of errors, where passed balls, wild pitches, muffed grounders and a bunch of singles did him in - it could have just been one of those days. We did say that Tony LaRussa could easily return to his veteran Ryan Franklin, but Boggs has shown plus velocity this year, and it's possible he's finally figured out relieving. He only switched to the pen full-time last year, so maybe the work he's doing now is sustainable. Don't drop Ryan Franklin just yet, but another couple of bad appearances in middle relief will cement his doom.Sergio Santos got the first White Sox save in what seemed like forever, and who knows if he'll keep the job past the second opportunity that he converted Tuesday (thanks in no small part to Brent Lillibridge and his two amazing catches). He does have electric stuff, but he's basically in his second year of pitching - ever. The converted shortstop may or may not hold on, so don't drop Matt Thornton just yet, unless you really face a roster crunch.Jonathan Broxton is in much hotter water if it can be believed. He's lost his velocity, and therewith his elite strikeout rate. Now his control is gone, too. He blew a save on Monday and was relieved of his role Tuesday, at least according to some sources - his GM and manager now disagree about his role, publicly. Hong-Chih Kuo is due back this weekend and it might be Vincente Padilla taking save opportunities for now. We still love Kenley Jansen long term because of his strikeouts (20 in 12 1/3 innings) but his control problems lurk (seven walks). He could be the closer long-term, with Kuo taking over from Padilla until the lefty gets hurt again. Anything could happen in this pen, including Broxton figuring it out. Don't drop the big guy just yet. P.S.: Brandon Lyon is still a mediocre pitcher. Mark Melancon is a great speculative play.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers (shoulder)
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies (elbow)
David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (hip surgery)
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics (forearm tightness)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Comment:The Rangers are hopeful that Neftali Feliz will miss the minimum, but shoulder soreness is not good. Jose Contreras' injury is worse, though, because there's an actual strain in his elbow. A strain is a tear, just a mild one, so this one could take up to a month and Ryan Madson, who Philly fans swear cannot close and has been ridiculed in public by his manager and GM, is now the closer.On the good news side of this ledger is David Aardsma, who is already rehabbing and due back any day. Andrew Bailey is throwing, and looking good, but the team hasn't announced a schedule yet.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Of all the pitchers on this list, I like Joe Nathan's chances of rejoining the land of the living closers. I think he's just getting some cobwebs out of his elbow. Jonathan Broxton is probably the next one on this list (he may already be here), and HIS velocity drop is more worrisome because there's no ready explanation.* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentHe's still around in shallower leagues, but Chris Coghlan is disappearing off of waiver wires because of his two-home-run game on Monday. He does have some power, but he's more interesting for batting average and steals help. He's striking out a little too much right now - he never once struck out close to 20% of the time in the minors and is now at nearly 23% - but even at this rate, his batting average is relatively safe. He's not a speed demon, but he once stole 34 bases in 565 Double-A plate appearances. There are some "buts" here, but you could pencil him in for double-digit home runs and as many as twenty steals going forward. He's a great fourth outfielder in most leagues. Just like with Jarrod Dyson last week, this week's deep league recommendation is flawed. Heck, anyone on a deep league waiver wire is most likely flawed. So we come to Emilio Bonifacio, who has many many flaws. One, he strikes out way too much for a guy with absolutely no power. That's one home run, career, in close to 1000 plate appearances, and almost 200 strikeouts. As with any player with these flaws, he needs to get on base in order to flash his wheels, but he walks at a below-average rate, too. But you know what? The Marlins have no choice but to turn to Bonifacio regularly. Their third basemen are just as flawed, if not worse, and half of them are hurt right now anyway. And Bonifacio is also the primary outfield backup. Given four hundred plate appearances - reasonable given the circumstances on the team - he could hit .270 with 20+ steals going forward. Not so bad for a free pickup.