Broxton Out? Sanchez In?
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
Your fantasy team might currently be straining under the stress of multiple injuries - at least one of mine has a bench full of dinged up dudes. We don't yet have any truly bizarre injuries on the list, but there's still time. It might be tempting fate, but let's name the tiers after those injuries that are devastating our lineups and ravaging our pitching staffs.
The worse the injury, the better the closer - because if we were to ever face these closers, the result would most likely be an injury. To us. The batters.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Fractured Kneecap While Celebrating" Tier.)Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Though it's very unlikely that you'd hit a walk-off if you were facing one of these closers, it is very likely that you would hurt yourself badly facing them. And hurt yourself in an embarrassing way.There's a distinct possibility that there is something wrong with Joakim Soria - possibly even a nagging unreported injury of some sort. He's lost about half of his swinging strike rate, and that might be a result of a fastball that is a mile-and-a-half slower than it used to be. He's throwing his slider almost twice as much as his curveball, which he's never done before, and using his fastball less often than ever before. Because he's been so good for so long, we'll leave him here, but he's hanging off the tier by a ledge. If you can sell him as an elite closer, this might be the time to do so.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "Abdominal Surgery" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Try to catch up to most of these fastballs, and you'd twist your trunk so badly that you probably would blow an oblique.Craig Kimbrel had a bad week - he blew two saves and walked three batters in the past seven days. Amazingly, he still has 17 strikeouts in 12.2 innings this year, and though his control has been an open question, he only has five walks. If these were keeper rankings, he'd already be in the elite tier - he's still the closer despite his recent struggles, and will be for a while. But, for now, he'll stay in this tier and rack up the strikeouts for your fantasy team.Brian Wilson wants to join the top tier, but he's spent the last week striking out six batters in four innings - and walking four batters in four innings. His control problems are probably related to his 'winning' stuff, but he's got to figure them out. He walked two batters in an outing against the Nationals and suddenly the bases were loaded with a 3-2 count on the final batter. That's enough to add 'gastrointestinal issues' to the list of his fantasy owner's ailments.Francisco Rodriguez has more strikeouts than innings pitched (15 in 11), has blown only one save, and is not feeling any pressure from pitchers behind him in the pen. He did have a few too many walks early on, but he's only walked two batters in his last five appearances. Yes, the danger that he is dealt is still there, but for now, he deserves this ranking.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Strained Hamstring" Tier.)Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Comment:You could strain something worse facing Huston Street, but the likelihood that he, himself, strains something is also part of the package. He continued his elite work over the past week with a save and two strikeouts in one inning, and could easily move up. It hasn't been a vintage Joel Hanrahan season, but his velocity is up over 97 MPH right now and he hasn't officially blown a save yet. Given his history, it's more likely that he returns to striking out one per inning than Chris Perez does, for example. Perez didn't blow up in the past week, but he also only has nine strikeouts (against five walks) in 13 innings so far. Those are not elite rates. You could say the same about Francisco Cordero and his nine strikeouts, four walks and 12 innings so far. Meh.Jordan Walden blew his first game this past week, but the fact that he got right back on the horse and logged two straight saves thereafter is great news for his owner. He looks like he could close all year. We'll move Leo Nunez into this tier because he had a similar hiccup - two earned runs against the Reds on April 29th - and a similar recovery - two straight saves since. And, really, almost everything has been the same for Nunez as it was last year - except he's having better luck on batted balls. He can keep it up.
Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "Back Spasms" Tier.)Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Comment:Back spasms are not fun - and it wouldn't be fun to face these guys - but they're mostly temporary and don't usually lead to extended missed time. These guys are all okay - they have one or two pitches that could hurt you - but they're also flawed. Yeah, Drew Storen's manager still says that he's in a time-share with Sean Burnett, but the actions on the field suggest that Storen is the main man. And yeah, Kyle Farnsworth blew a save last week, but he was put into a tough situation. He was brought on in a tie game in the ninth with Torii Hunter on second base and no outs. He gave up one hit and there went the 'save.' Kevin Gregg just keeps on trucking despite having some wonky control (six walks in ten innings), and he hasn't blow a save in the last two weeks. Those holding on to Koji Uehara - in many ways a better pitcher - may want to consider rostering other relief aces that have clearer paths to saves.John Axford has settled down bigtime. He hasn't walked a batter since April 18th, and although that's just a span of four appearances, it's impressive given his history. We did know, that given the lack of viable alternatives in that pen, that he would get a long leash, and he looks like the Axford of 2010 again.
Your fantasy team might currently be straining under the stress of multiple injuries - at least one of mine has a bench full of dinged up dudes. We don't yet have any truly bizarre injuries on the list, but there's still time. It might be tempting fate, but let's name the tiers after those injuries that are devastating our lineups and ravaging our pitching staffs.
The worse the injury, the better the closer - because if we were to ever face these closers, the result would most likely be an injury. To us. The batters.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Fractured Kneecap While Celebrating" Tier.)Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Though it's very unlikely that you'd hit a walk-off if you were facing one of these closers, it is very likely that you would hurt yourself badly facing them. And hurt yourself in an embarrassing way.There's a distinct possibility that there is something wrong with Joakim Soria - possibly even a nagging unreported injury of some sort. He's lost about half of his swinging strike rate, and that might be a result of a fastball that is a mile-and-a-half slower than it used to be. He's throwing his slider almost twice as much as his curveball, which he's never done before, and using his fastball less often than ever before. Because he's been so good for so long, we'll leave him here, but he's hanging off the tier by a ledge. If you can sell him as an elite closer, this might be the time to do so.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "Abdominal Surgery" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Try to catch up to most of these fastballs, and you'd twist your trunk so badly that you probably would blow an oblique.Craig Kimbrel had a bad week - he blew two saves and walked three batters in the past seven days. Amazingly, he still has 17 strikeouts in 12.2 innings this year, and though his control has been an open question, he only has five walks. If these were keeper rankings, he'd already be in the elite tier - he's still the closer despite his recent struggles, and will be for a while. But, for now, he'll stay in this tier and rack up the strikeouts for your fantasy team.Brian Wilson wants to join the top tier, but he's spent the last week striking out six batters in four innings - and walking four batters in four innings. His control problems are probably related to his 'winning' stuff, but he's got to figure them out. He walked two batters in an outing against the Nationals and suddenly the bases were loaded with a 3-2 count on the final batter. That's enough to add 'gastrointestinal issues' to the list of his fantasy owner's ailments.Francisco Rodriguez has more strikeouts than innings pitched (15 in 11), has blown only one save, and is not feeling any pressure from pitchers behind him in the pen. He did have a few too many walks early on, but he's only walked two batters in his last five appearances. Yes, the danger that he is dealt is still there, but for now, he deserves this ranking.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Strained Hamstring" Tier.)Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Comment:You could strain something worse facing Huston Street, but the likelihood that he, himself, strains something is also part of the package. He continued his elite work over the past week with a save and two strikeouts in one inning, and could easily move up. It hasn't been a vintage Joel Hanrahan season, but his velocity is up over 97 MPH right now and he hasn't officially blown a save yet. Given his history, it's more likely that he returns to striking out one per inning than Chris Perez does, for example. Perez didn't blow up in the past week, but he also only has nine strikeouts (against five walks) in 13 innings so far. Those are not elite rates. You could say the same about Francisco Cordero and his nine strikeouts, four walks and 12 innings so far. Meh.Jordan Walden blew his first game this past week, but the fact that he got right back on the horse and logged two straight saves thereafter is great news for his owner. He looks like he could close all year. We'll move Leo Nunez into this tier because he had a similar hiccup - two earned runs against the Reds on April 29th - and a similar recovery - two straight saves since. And, really, almost everything has been the same for Nunez as it was last year - except he's having better luck on batted balls. He can keep it up.
Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "Back Spasms" Tier.)Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Comment:Back spasms are not fun - and it wouldn't be fun to face these guys - but they're mostly temporary and don't usually lead to extended missed time. These guys are all okay - they have one or two pitches that could hurt you - but they're also flawed. Yeah, Drew Storen's manager still says that he's in a time-share with Sean Burnett, but the actions on the field suggest that Storen is the main man. And yeah, Kyle Farnsworth blew a save last week, but he was put into a tough situation. He was brought on in a tie game in the ninth with Torii Hunter on second base and no outs. He gave up one hit and there went the 'save.' Kevin Gregg just keeps on trucking despite having some wonky control (six walks in ten innings), and he hasn't blow a save in the last two weeks. Those holding on to Koji Uehara - in many ways a better pitcher - may want to consider rostering other relief aces that have clearer paths to saves.John Axford has settled down bigtime. He hasn't walked a batter since April 18th, and although that's just a span of four appearances, it's impressive given his history. We did know, that given the lack of viable alternatives in that pen, that he would get a long leash, and he looks like the Axford of 2010 again.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (9) (AKA: The "Mental Health Day" Tier.)Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Jonathan Broxton / Vicente Padilla /
Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Frank Francisco /
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays
Brian Fuentes, Oakland Athletics
Darren Oliver, Texas Rangers
Eduardo Sanchez, St. Louis Cardinals
Comment:These closers, as a group, collectively inspire fantasy owners to want a mental health day. for the most part, they are injury fill-ins, closers-by-committee, or just plane old flawed pitchers (Brandon Lyon). Jon Rauch, for example, has never had the strikeout rate of a real closer, and now after blowing the game Tuesday night, he might be out of that role for a mental health day of his own.He's only been on the mound since 2009, but Sergio Santos may emerge from the scrum in the White Sox pen with the job this year. He has punch (95 MPH fastball), and is showing better control as he matures as a pitcher. It might be time to start dropping everyone in that pen other than Matt Thornton, who is still getting high-leverage chances and might still be his handcuff. But, yeah, it looks pretty good for Santos owners right now.Jonathan Broxton is now the closer again, maybe. Or maybe he never lost the role. He's successfully converted two straight saves in the past week, and though his velocity is not back, it is better than it was earlier this season. Could he maybe succeed at 95 MPH even if it's not 97? That's a question we'll see answered in the next few weeks. Hold on to Vincente Padilla as a handcuff, but Broxton could hold on to this role by his scuffed-up fingernails. Although the blown game Tuesday night might have been the nail in coffin, in which case Hong-Chih Kuo is interesting also.The new worst pen - at least from a fantasy standpoint - is being Mike Shanahaned currently by Tony LaRussa. In the last week, Ryan Franklin and Mitchell Boggs both lost a game, Fernando Salas, Trever Miller and Eduardo Sanchez have all gotten saves. Miller is a lefty and he got his save in extra innings, so he's probably further away from being a closer than the rest of the group. Fernando Salas has been pitching well, and he could easily take the job. Boggs has really only had one bad appearance all year, so anything could happen with his candidacy. Eduardo Sanchez is obviously an important figure, and we've been in love with his strikeout punch (17 strikeouts in ten innings so far) since day one. He got the last save, and he might just be the closer now. See? It's already time for a break from contemplating this pen and we haven't even gotten into the fact that Ryan Franklin is still getting opportunities in close games. You might as well own them all at this point, with a focus on Sanchez and Boggs.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers (shoulder)
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies (elbow)
David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (hip surgery)
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics (forearm tightness)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Comment:Neftali Feliz has already thrown a successful bullpen without any shoulder issues, and he'll make a rehab appearance Wednesday. Darren Oliver's shelf-life is shorter than an over-ripe avocado at this point. David Aardsma (hip) is also close, as he's had multiple rehab appearances so far, but his velocity has been a little down and he has been struggling some. Hold on to Brandon League even once Aardsma returns. Andrew Bailey will face live batters for the first time on Wednesday, and if that goes well, he may face them one more time and then go out on a rehab assignment. That's at least closer than he's been so far to regaining his closer role.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Is Ryan Franklin actually the closer most likely to leave this list? He's been terrible, but he's getting opportunities to pitch at the end of close games. Then again, he's terrible. Joe Nathan could also resurrect, but he gave up two earned runs Saturday against the Royals and hasn't gotten things on track just yet either.* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentMichael Brantley has been dropped in too many leagues. Sure, Grady Sizemore is back and his return has bumped Brantley down in the order. Sure, Brantley has no power at all. But you're here because you want steals, and Brantley can give you steals with a decent batting average. He is available in more than half of the leagues out there, and he still has 30+ steal upside despite only swiping four bags so far this year. He stole 46 in 528 PAs in 2009 in Triple-A, so there's your speed upside for you. Jason Bourgeois has three steals in the last week. Sure he doesn't have any power, and his glove won't probably play long-term in center field, but right now he's got a clear path to playing time. Carlos Lee is dealing with that injury to his ribs and is out for an indeterminate amount of time - it's possible Bourgeois is only a short-term add. Then again, Lee is not getting any younger, his bat has clearly been declining, and the team has been playing him at first base some. There's opportunity here for the youngish outfielder (Bourgeois is 29) to carve out enough at-bats to steal some bags for your deep league team. He should be available, too.