Eno Sarris

Saves and Steals

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Enough To Make You Angry

Wednesday, May 11, 2011


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Injured


Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies (elbow)
David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (hip surgery)
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics (forearm tightness)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros (shoulder)

Comment:
  • David Aardsma might be on his way to Tommy John surgery, so hold him for another few days if you can, but don't count on him returning. Andrew Bailey is throwing bullpens, but the team is working quick-sand-slow with him and he might throw another before going out on rehab.

  • Brad Lidge is only six days into his throwing program, but he says he feels much stronger and is optimistic about a mid-June return. If he's available and you've got a DL spot, might as well put a future closer on your team.

  • Brandon Lyon? He's droppable. He's just now starting the same process that Brad Lidge did - they both have rotator cuff issues. Even when he returns, if Mark Melancon has been doing well, it's unclear that he will get his old job back. He was a mediocre closer at best when healthy.

  • Jonathan Broxton was once a great closer, and maybe six weeks will help him get his velocity back. Just because of his upside, he's more of a stash than a trash.


  • The Deposed:
    Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
    Joe Nathan, Minnesota
    Ryan Franklin, St. Louis

  • His GM wants him to close again, so it's worth noting that Ryan Franklin may yet get another save chance. Doesn't seem likely, but sometimes a GM gets what he wants on his own team. Joe Nathan's velocity is inching it's way back to 94 and he's been more effective of late. He's only been scored on once in his last five appearances, with six strikeouts and two walks in those 4 2/3 innings. The Twins strike me as a loyal organization that just might reward him for sticking with it.


  • * * * * * * * * * *


    The Steals Department

  • Since Travis Snider was sent down, Rajai Davis is playing most days in the Toronto outfield. He stole 91 bases over the last two years, at an 80% success rate. That's elite, even if the rest of his game is lacking. It's hard to look at his sub-mendoza batting average right now and see opportunity, but his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .250 right now. That number trends to .300 across baseball, and he's speedy enough that his own personal number should be higher even. Consider him very, very likely to hit at least .270 going forward, with at least a 40-steal pace, and if you're lucky enough to find him on your waiver wire, snag him now.


  • With Rick Ankiel on the DL with a sprained wrist, Roger Bernadina is a temporary add in deep leagues for his speed. Really, even once Ankiel returns, it might make sense for the team to find some playing time for The Shark. He strikes out a little too often to have a great batting average, and he doesn't have great power, but his defense and speed make him a real-life asset on the field. He could hit for a mediocre batting average and steal some bags, at least for the next couple of weeks. Go shark hunting on your waiver wire if you really need a speed boost in your deep league.


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    Eno Sarris is an editor and writer at FanGraphs.com. You can find his work gathered in one place at and enosarris.com. Follow his misadventures in writing on Twitter as well.
    Email :Eno Sarris


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