Bacon & Bearded Closer: Elite
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
This past weekend, runners converged on San Francisco for a crazy, crazy race called Bay to Breakers. The race is run by only the costumed, and then only barely run at all. Think Halloween on legs. Among the many costumes this past weekend was a pack of running bacon.
Bacon is a force of distraction, it seems. Even fake bacon on legs makes one think of thoroughly destroying a big breakfast platter. Going house on some strips is a good way to recover from anything, at least for meat-eaters.
So, in honor of the running pack of bacon, we'll name the closer tiers after our favorite single entity foods. As in, I love me some short ribs in a red wine reduction, but if I had to pick one, simple piece of food for my next meal, what would that food be?
And yes, number one is bacon.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Bacon" Tier.)Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
It makes sense to pair that beard with bacon. They are both so dominant in their respective categories. Brian Wilson is still walking people - three in his last four appearances - but at a much better rate recently. In fact, those three walks were his only May walks. The strikeout dominance never left, nor did the zaniness.Jonathan Papelbon's ridiculous strikeout-to-walk ratio is only getting more ridiculous. He's now up to 21 strikeouts against two walks after not walking a single batter in May. His team isn't providing him the most save chances, but that's a very volatile stat from year to year and month to month. He'll rattle off a string of five saves in ten days and suddenly he'll look as dominant as he actually has been.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Ice Cream" Tier.)
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
His Mexcellence (formerly Mexicutioner) has been downgraded to a mere Mexpert. He blew a save last Wednesday, then the team found a flaw in his delivery, and then he's had a nice two-strikeout-no-walk inning in a 19-to-1 blowout loss. The team is playing well enough to hand him some opportunities, but Soria has shown reduced velocity all year. In fact, he showed his best velocity after they corrected the flaw in his delivery - he could be back on his way to the top with a few saves and some nice pop in the catchers' glove.J.J. Putz hasn't quite been as smooth as ice cream recently, as he's begun to walk batters. Five walks (against only four strikeouts) in his last seven trips to the mound is not elite, but as long as he's still healthy he's a fine option.Craig Kimbrel moves by him in the rankings by striking out a whopping twelve batters in his last five innings. It's gotten to the point where the three-strikeout save must be named the "Kimbrel" from now on. He's a step away from elite himself, and only some longevity in the role stands in the way.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Chocolate" Tier.)Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Comment:Neftali Feliz has not come back strong and sweet like a chocolate truffle. Instead, he's walked four against one strikeout since returning from the DL and it's fair to worry about him just a little. As long as the worrying doesn't lead to more chocolate eating.Joel Hanrahan keeps puttering along like a good chocolate bar, but it's folly to expect his team to continue delivering him save chances in bundles. Though he cooks with gas, Hanrahan will have a few save-less weeks that will give his owners gas like chocolate often does.More proof that saves come in bunches and that it's better to look at strikeout and walk ratios than save totals at this point: Chris Perez has 11 strikeouts against nine walks, and just a week ago had ten saves to Leo Nunez's eleven. Now Nunez has 15 saves and his 21 strikeouts against nine walks is still more impressive. Using that method of thinking, it's more important that Drew Storen has walked only one batter in May and has not lost a save chance to Sean Burnett than the fact that he only has nine saves. He deserves some love.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Rice" Tier.)Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Comment:Rice can be good. Give me some sticky rice with some Japanese Nori-shake in it, or some rice with beans, and I'll go to town. Rice can also just be blah, something you put on the plate to fill the meal out. These closers are slightly rice-like.Jordan Walden looked good for a while, and now is in an iffy stretch. He's still hitting 97 on the gun regularly, and still striking out batters like a closer, and has only walked three in seven May appearances, but three blown saves in the month have to register. There's no talk yet, but Scott Downs is pitching well and is a solid veteran. He might be next in line for save opportunities should the Angels make a change. Brandon League is also in a little hot water after spending the weekend in disastrous fashion after learning that first-chair closer David Aardsma would be out at least two months with an elbow strain. The good news must have gotten to League, who has now given up a whopping ten runs in his last four appearances. The thing is, he didn't walk a guy, at least not until his scoreless inning Tuesday. More worrisome is the home run he gave up on Friday the 13th, because he isn't getting groundballs like he used to. Still, there's no good option behind him - at all. It'll take a few more blown saves before Jamey Wright is in there trying to shut the door. Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
This past weekend, runners converged on San Francisco for a crazy, crazy race called Bay to Breakers. The race is run by only the costumed, and then only barely run at all. Think Halloween on legs. Among the many costumes this past weekend was a pack of running bacon.
Bacon is a force of distraction, it seems. Even fake bacon on legs makes one think of thoroughly destroying a big breakfast platter. Going house on some strips is a good way to recover from anything, at least for meat-eaters.
So, in honor of the running pack of bacon, we'll name the closer tiers after our favorite single entity foods. As in, I love me some short ribs in a red wine reduction, but if I had to pick one, simple piece of food for my next meal, what would that food be?
And yes, number one is bacon.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Bacon" Tier.)Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
It makes sense to pair that beard with bacon. They are both so dominant in their respective categories. Brian Wilson is still walking people - three in his last four appearances - but at a much better rate recently. In fact, those three walks were his only May walks. The strikeout dominance never left, nor did the zaniness.Jonathan Papelbon's ridiculous strikeout-to-walk ratio is only getting more ridiculous. He's now up to 21 strikeouts against two walks after not walking a single batter in May. His team isn't providing him the most save chances, but that's a very volatile stat from year to year and month to month. He'll rattle off a string of five saves in ten days and suddenly he'll look as dominant as he actually has been.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Ice Cream" Tier.)Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
His Mexcellence (formerly Mexicutioner) has been downgraded to a mere Mexpert. He blew a save last Wednesday, then the team found a flaw in his delivery, and then he's had a nice two-strikeout-no-walk inning in a 19-to-1 blowout loss. The team is playing well enough to hand him some opportunities, but Soria has shown reduced velocity all year. In fact, he showed his best velocity after they corrected the flaw in his delivery - he could be back on his way to the top with a few saves and some nice pop in the catchers' glove.J.J. Putz hasn't quite been as smooth as ice cream recently, as he's begun to walk batters. Five walks (against only four strikeouts) in his last seven trips to the mound is not elite, but as long as he's still healthy he's a fine option.Craig Kimbrel moves by him in the rankings by striking out a whopping twelve batters in his last five innings. It's gotten to the point where the three-strikeout save must be named the "Kimbrel" from now on. He's a step away from elite himself, and only some longevity in the role stands in the way.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Chocolate" Tier.)Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Comment:Neftali Feliz has not come back strong and sweet like a chocolate truffle. Instead, he's walked four against one strikeout since returning from the DL and it's fair to worry about him just a little. As long as the worrying doesn't lead to more chocolate eating.Joel Hanrahan keeps puttering along like a good chocolate bar, but it's folly to expect his team to continue delivering him save chances in bundles. Though he cooks with gas, Hanrahan will have a few save-less weeks that will give his owners gas like chocolate often does.More proof that saves come in bunches and that it's better to look at strikeout and walk ratios than save totals at this point: Chris Perez has 11 strikeouts against nine walks, and just a week ago had ten saves to Leo Nunez's eleven. Now Nunez has 15 saves and his 21 strikeouts against nine walks is still more impressive. Using that method of thinking, it's more important that Drew Storen has walked only one batter in May and has not lost a save chance to Sean Burnett than the fact that he only has nine saves. He deserves some love.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Rice" Tier.)Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Comment:Rice can be good. Give me some sticky rice with some Japanese Nori-shake in it, or some rice with beans, and I'll go to town. Rice can also just be blah, something you put on the plate to fill the meal out. These closers are slightly rice-like.Jordan Walden looked good for a while, and now is in an iffy stretch. He's still hitting 97 on the gun regularly, and still striking out batters like a closer, and has only walked three in seven May appearances, but three blown saves in the month have to register. There's no talk yet, but Scott Downs is pitching well and is a solid veteran. He might be next in line for save opportunities should the Angels make a change. Brandon League is also in a little hot water after spending the weekend in disastrous fashion after learning that first-chair closer David Aardsma would be out at least two months with an elbow strain. The good news must have gotten to League, who has now given up a whopping ten runs in his last four appearances. The thing is, he didn't walk a guy, at least not until his scoreless inning Tuesday. More worrisome is the home run he gave up on Friday the 13th, because he isn't getting groundballs like he used to. Still, there's no good option behind him - at all. It'll take a few more blown saves before Jamey Wright is in there trying to shut the door. Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "Tofu" Tier.)1st Chair:
Frank Francisco, 2nd Chair:
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair:
Kevin Gregg, 2nd Chair:
Koji Uehara, Baltimore Orioles
1st Chair:
Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair:
Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros
1st Chair:
Ryan Madson, 2nd Chair:
Antonio Bastardo, Philadelphia Phillies
1st Chair:
Brian Fuentes, 2nd Chair:
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
1st Chair:
Fernando Salas, 2nd Chair:
Eduardo Sanchez, St. Louis Cardinals
1st Chair:
Matt Guerrier, 2nd Chair: Vincente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers
Comment:Tofu has modest upside, I'll give you that. With a crispy crust and downed in some sweet orange sauce, I can even dig on it. But, for the most part, tofu has little sway on the way a dish is going. These closers, in like fashion, are having little (positive) sway on the way their teams are going right now.Frank Francisco has walked five batters and struck out six in May, but he looks like the closer now with two straight saves. Kevin Gregg is in way more danger right now despite also being the nominal closer. He has just as many walks as strikeouts and has now blown two saves in the past week. Koji Uehara is an enticing add these days, if only on the back of his pristine ERA and WHIP and great strikeout to walk ratio. Sure, Uehara allows fly balls, but so does Gregg. Change may be coming.Mark Melancon is the closer in Houston - or at least we assume so because he's gotten the only Astro save in May. He did blow an opportunity Tuesday night by allowing a home run to the pinch-hitting Brian McCann, but it was the only hit he allowed, and, well, Brian McCann is a pretty good hitter. Wilton Lopez has four walks in May (he had five over the entire 2010 season), but he might be next if Melancon stumbles. This is maybe the most tofu-like: safe-ish and bland-ish. Check on the Oakland and Phillie situations in the Injured section of this roundup - Ryan Madson and Brian Fuentes are fine closers, but they are just place-holding until their healthy first-chair closers return.The merry-go-round goes around again in St. Louis and Los Angeles. Fernando Salas looks like the man of the moment in Tony LaRussa's pen - he's been the last pitcher in the last two games for the Cardinals and his 16-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio is pretty good. It's not elite, since he's thrown 17 2/3 innings, and Eduardo Sanchez still has the better strikeout ability (23 strikeouts in 16 innings). But Sanchez doesn't have quite the same clean slate and his last save came more than a week ago. Mitchell Boggs lurks, but this will probably come down to Salas or Sanchez, and Salas is ahead right now.In Los Angeles, Jonathan Broxton has just played catch for the first time since hitting the DL, and this may just be a temporary scrum until he returns. On the other hand, he hasn't looked right for a year-plus now. Matt Guerrier got the save Tuesday night, and has the cleanest ERA of the crew, but he also has 19 strikeouts against 10 walks in 22 1/3 innings. That's neither closer-level strikeout punch, nor is it great control. He's also a fly-ball pitcher, so he's not really that notable in any one area. On the other hand, he doesn't have the control problems of Kanley Jansen or the health problems of Vincente Padilla. Jansen might be the long-term solution if he can control the ball, and Padilla might still get the next save. Anything could happen here.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies (elbow)
David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (hip surgery)
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics (forearm tightness)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros (shoulder)
Comment:Brad Lidge may throw off a mound this week, which would be a big step toward starting his rehab. That probably means that he'll be back before Jose Contreras. It should at least mean that he'll be throwing so soon after Contreras' return that the Cuban becomes expendable if you need the roster spot.David Aardsma will not undergo Tommy John surgery, but he will be shut down completely for a month before throwing, so he's probably out at least two months with his elbow strain. Brandon Lyon also opted to avoid surgery, but won't be coming off the DL when he's eligible too. It'll be a while, and he was so mediocre when in that he's droppable.Andrew Bailey (forearm) is scheduled to pitch in extended spring training again Tuesday. The team is taking their time with the oft-injured pitcher, but he's close to a rehab assignment at least.Jonathon Broxton (elbow) played catch. We'll keep you updated, step by step, as he tries to regain his form.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Joe Nathan's velocity and effectiveness are both inching forward with every appearance. He's still a couple ticks short of his full fastball, though, and Matt Capps has been decent enough. Anything deeper than mixed, though, and Nathan is immediately interesting.* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentOn Wednesday, the Mariners activated Franklin Gutierrez, who is finally over his stomach issues thanks to a team of doctors from around the nation. He looked like the same old Gutierrez on his rehab, and even though his batting average will be an open question, he should be good for a 20-stolen-base pace either way. Given that he does give you some power, he could be a good bench piece that you play when he's going well without costing much power punch. That's certainly a way to add some steals, even if it's not going to be like finding Jacoby Ellsbury on your waiver wire. Because that doesn't happen really.Continuing the Mariners-focused news, you may have heard that Dustin Ackley might be on his way to the major leagues soon - his general manager is considering it and just wants to see a little better defense from his prized prospect. Unfortunately, 'soon' is not now, and it's also unclear if Ackley has mixed-league upside. Since hitting Double-A, he hasn't had a batting average better than .274, and his isolated power has just been about average. He's also only stolen 21 bases in his first thousand plate appearances, so he's not really a 'speed' option. Also, his name value has probably over-rated him in keeper leagues to the point that he'll be owned and hard to pry loose in those leagues. So, yeah, Ackley's not a great option for most. But there is a sweet spot - deeper redraft league managers may find Ackley on the wire, may be struggling at second base, may need a little power and a little speed, and may have space on the bench to stash Ackley for a mid-season callup.