Pen Shakeup in the T-Dot
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "Too Much TV Can Make You Fat" Tier.)1st Chair:
Fernando Salas, 2nd Chair:
Eduardo Sanchez, St. Louis Cardinals
1st Chair:
Ryan Madson, 2nd Chair:
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies
1st Chair:
Aaron Crow, 2nd Chair: Luis Coleman, Kansas City Royals
1st Chair:
Kevin Gregg, 2nd Chair:
Koji Uehara, Baltimore Orioles
1st Chair:
Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair:
Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros
1st Chair:
Jon Rauch, 2nd Chair:
Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair:
Javy Guerra, 2nd Chair:
Matt Guerrier, Los Angeles Dodgers
Comment:Caution is important. Like, it looks like Fernando Salas should be in the next tier up and Neftali Feliz should be here. But these guys have pitched fewer than 25 innings each this year. They could pitch five innings each this week, and if those five innings look like the back of their baseball cards, it will have been a good idea to move slowly. But Salas only walked three guys in May (against 14 strikeouts) and has converted ten straight save opportunities with a couple holds mixed in. Another week and he'll make it out of the grotto.We've been talking about Joakim Soria for weeks now, and the ending came suddenly. After blowing his third straight save on Monday night, the decision was made. Closer of the Future Aaron Crow is now the closer and Soria will work on getting right in middle relief. The thing is, the team has every reason to root for him, even if the only outcome is trading him for value before he walks in the offseason. He could close again, if only for a little while before being traded, or he could hit the DL and spend the year looking for what he lost. It's a riddle wrapped in a conundrum on top of an enigma.In Philadelphia, we'll just have to wait to see what a healthy Brad Lidge can do this year before we know more about that potential battle with Ryan Madson. But the situation in Baltimore could come to a head at any moment. In his last four appearances, Kevin Gregg has six walks against one strikeout. Sure, he's only given up two runs, and he's even converted a save, but your closer is not supposed to have 18 walks against 15 strikeouts. Not while the setup man has only five walks against his 28 strikeouts and has been a successful closer in the past. Mark Melancon has one walk in May and has only blown one save since becoming the closer in Houston. He's probably in no danger from Wilton Lopez, who has six walks against four strikeouts in his last six appearances. At least Lopez has his groundball rate back, and if Melancon blows up, it'll be Lopez cleaning up.No-one really knows what's going on in Toronto right now. Frank Francisco blew two saves in a row and was removed from the role, but the trouble was a little while in coming. In May, he's given up three home runs and has looked hittable despite managing 17 strikeouts in his 14 2/3 innings so far this year. He's always been a fly-baller (not a fly baller), so maybe he's not a great mix for the Toronto stadium. On the other hand, he was fine in Texas and could easily find it again. Consider this: 10% of all fly balls leave the park across baseball - and basically a quarter of Francisco's fly balls have gone yard. He's still got the best stuff of the bunch. He's got more punch than Jon Rauch, who might be the closer right now since he got the team's last save. Rauch has 14 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings. It could be Jason Frasor, too, since he has decent overall rates. We know even less about the situation in Los Angeles. The best overall pitcher in the pen right now might be recently called up prospect Rubby De La Rosa, who now has five strikeouts in his first five innings as a result of his knockout stuff. But the 21-year-old Dominican might need to return to starting at some point, and it's Javy Guerra who got the last save for the Dodgers. Guerra pairs a 94-MPH fastball with a good slider, but he's had control problems in the minor leagues that could resurface at any time. Matt Guerrier is still doing his steady-eddy, but five walks against four strikeouts in his last seven appearances is not impressive. Call De La Rosa the dark horse, Guerra the flavor of the moment, and Guerrier the bland backup plan. Oh and Vicente Padilla should be back Friday to make this even harder to parse.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (hip surgery)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros (shoulder)
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers (forearm)
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins (elbow)
Comment:Jose Contreras returned from the DL a setup man. So did Andrew Bailey, but it's Bailey that will close again soon.Brad Lidge, on the other hand, only touched 87 MPH in extended spring training Tuesday so he's got a ways to go. Joe Nathan ended up back on the DL with elbow soreness that Twins' doctors say is common in Tommy John returners. He's working out but not throwing and should be back in June. The DL is the perfect place to stash Nathan until he finds it.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Fernando Rodney got a save! Jordan Walden needed the day off. Ryan Franklin struck out three in a scoreless eighth inning! That's bigger news, potentially.* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentNyjer Morgan is a hot-head. And, sure, he strikes out a bit much and is probably more of a .275-.285 hitter going forward. But in full seasons, he's averaged 38 steals per, and he plays a good enough center field that the Brewers can sit the glove-only Carlos Gomez most days. In fact, the only time Gomez will probably start is when the Brewers face lefties. So, even if you don't like him, pick up Morgan if you need speed.
Tony Campana caught the attention of Cubs fans and fantasy players alike when he stole four bases Monday - on one hit and one walk. The lefty might not play against lefties, and he has absolutely no power. He doesn't really walk a ton either. But it's either him or Lou Montanez (another flawed player) in center field for the Cubs these days after Alfonso Soriano joined Marlon Byrd, Jeff Baker and Reed Johnson on the DL. A decimated outfield might just be your shot at a few saves in a short time. Like, say, four stolen bases in one game.
Sometimes you feel like you need a little boost. Maybe you drink a soda, or a coffee, or an energy drink. You can do that because you're an adult, or at least close to it. You can make that choice.
But maybe it's not such a good idea to make that choice for your children. In a 'bacon tastes good' moment, scientists have found that energy drinks are not good for children. Next they'll discover that cigarettes and beer aren't good for them either, know what I'm saying?
So we'll name the tiers this week in honor of some of the more obvious discoveries of recent time. Because sometimes Captain Obvious is actually Doctor Obvious.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "People Happiest on Fridays" Tier.)Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Heath Bell hasn't quite shown the crazy strikeout punch, but we've put our crack team of scientists on the case and found that he's still pretty good. He hasn't walked a batter since May 8th even. Of course, the team may trade him. The year hasn't gone well and they probably won't have the money to sign him unless he likes living in his home state so much that he gives a little discount. If he goes, it's Luke Gregerson taking over most likely, since the Padres control Gregerson for longer than the also-excellent Mike Adams.Mariano Rivera has now blown his last two games. He's only had a worse strikeout rate once in the last eleven years - and that was last year. He's still got tremendous control, and that one awesome pitch, but the cracks are showing.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Men More Interested Than Women in Casual Hookups" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Speaking of dry spells for men, J.J. Putz is in the middle of a strikeout-less stretch (one in his last five innings). Other than that, and the ever-present health risk, and he'd be in the elite tier. Craig Kimbrel is prone to the occasional hiccup, but a nice stretch might make him elite. Francisco Rodriguez might never be elite just because the threat that his team trades him is very real. Keep Jason Isringhausen close. Carlos Marmol's team may need to step it up a little, because he'd only given up 12 hits in 23 innings before Tuesday night. Then he gave up five hits and six runs and doesn't look like elite material any more. He'll be fine though.Joel Hanrahan deserves some love. He used to have some control issues, but he only has five walks all year and one in May. In his last appearance he struck out three batters and didn't allow a baserunner. He lights up the radar gun, too. Sure, the Rangers are interested, but will they pay serious prospects for Hanrahan? Since he's under team control until the end of the 2013 season, he won't be acquired cheaply. Hanrahan is looking rock-steady.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Exercise Helps People Lose Weight" Tier.)Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Comment:Leo Nunez did blow a save against the Giants last week, but from personal, live experience this reporter can tell you that none of the balls in play were really line drives. The Giants dinked and dunked him to death. Nunez still has three strikeouts to every walk and is having an excellent year. He's also under team control for another year so he'll probably stay with the team even if they drop out of the NL East race.Drew Storen is also on a bad kick. He's given up runs in three straight appearances and was saddled with a blown save and a loss in the last two. Thing is, he also looks fine if you zoom out past the last week. He doesn't have an elite strikeout rate, but it's above-average. He's got great control, and that hasn't changed with only two walks in May. And most of the contact he induces is on the ground, which will help him avoid more home runs like the one he gave up to Jason Bartlett in San Diego. He should be fine.He doesn't have great control, so he's no Rock Steady, but Sergio Santos has kept his ERA skinny by striking out 30 in 25 2/3 innings. Most importantly, the former shortstop has been run back out onto the mound for successful save conversions after he blew a save two weeks ago. Looks like Ozzie Guillen likes him - and it's not like Matt Thornton or Chris Sale are pitching lights out. Santos might keep the job all year.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Little Boys Like Cars" Tier.)
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Comment:
Little boys like cars. They also like chicken fingers and sandboxes and trees and running and jumping. News? Not news like "Andrew Bailey is back and will shortly be the sole closer in Oakland." Not news like that. Jordan Walden is still effective, and still cooking with gas, but he's also got some shaky control at times. He had three appearances in May in which he gave up two walks - and two baserunners in one inning usually means a runner will score. But most of the pitchers on this list have one flaw or another. If it's not Walden's great strikeout punch with poor control, it's Brandon League and Kyle Farnsworth and Matt Capps showing poor strikeout rates and excellent control.And then there's Neftali Feliz. He's looking all kinds of messed up. He has three blown saves in his last five appearances and was removed from his last attempt before blowing it. Since returning from the DL, he has nine walks against three strikeouts. His velocity is a little down, but more worrisome is the fact that the swinging strikes are now below average. By looking at his rate stats, his ERA should be much, much worse. Arthur Rhodes and Darren Oliver deserve to be owned, and if Feliz hadn't been so awesome last year, he would be in the Rollercoaster tier right now. As it is, he might not last the week if his current work continues.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "Too Much TV Can Make You Fat" Tier.)1st Chair:
Fernando Salas, 2nd Chair:
Eduardo Sanchez, St. Louis Cardinals
1st Chair:
Ryan Madson, 2nd Chair:
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies
1st Chair:
Aaron Crow, 2nd Chair: Luis Coleman, Kansas City Royals
1st Chair:
Kevin Gregg, 2nd Chair:
Koji Uehara, Baltimore Orioles
1st Chair:
Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair:
Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros
1st Chair:
Jon Rauch, 2nd Chair:
Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair:
Javy Guerra, 2nd Chair:
Matt Guerrier, Los Angeles Dodgers
Comment:Caution is important. Like, it looks like Fernando Salas should be in the next tier up and Neftali Feliz should be here. But these guys have pitched fewer than 25 innings each this year. They could pitch five innings each this week, and if those five innings look like the back of their baseball cards, it will have been a good idea to move slowly. But Salas only walked three guys in May (against 14 strikeouts) and has converted ten straight save opportunities with a couple holds mixed in. Another week and he'll make it out of the grotto.We've been talking about Joakim Soria for weeks now, and the ending came suddenly. After blowing his third straight save on Monday night, the decision was made. Closer of the Future Aaron Crow is now the closer and Soria will work on getting right in middle relief. The thing is, the team has every reason to root for him, even if the only outcome is trading him for value before he walks in the offseason. He could close again, if only for a little while before being traded, or he could hit the DL and spend the year looking for what he lost. It's a riddle wrapped in a conundrum on top of an enigma.In Philadelphia, we'll just have to wait to see what a healthy Brad Lidge can do this year before we know more about that potential battle with Ryan Madson. But the situation in Baltimore could come to a head at any moment. In his last four appearances, Kevin Gregg has six walks against one strikeout. Sure, he's only given up two runs, and he's even converted a save, but your closer is not supposed to have 18 walks against 15 strikeouts. Not while the setup man has only five walks against his 28 strikeouts and has been a successful closer in the past. Mark Melancon has one walk in May and has only blown one save since becoming the closer in Houston. He's probably in no danger from Wilton Lopez, who has six walks against four strikeouts in his last six appearances. At least Lopez has his groundball rate back, and if Melancon blows up, it'll be Lopez cleaning up.No-one really knows what's going on in Toronto right now. Frank Francisco blew two saves in a row and was removed from the role, but the trouble was a little while in coming. In May, he's given up three home runs and has looked hittable despite managing 17 strikeouts in his 14 2/3 innings so far this year. He's always been a fly-baller (not a fly baller), so maybe he's not a great mix for the Toronto stadium. On the other hand, he was fine in Texas and could easily find it again. Consider this: 10% of all fly balls leave the park across baseball - and basically a quarter of Francisco's fly balls have gone yard. He's still got the best stuff of the bunch. He's got more punch than Jon Rauch, who might be the closer right now since he got the team's last save. Rauch has 14 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings. It could be Jason Frasor, too, since he has decent overall rates. We know even less about the situation in Los Angeles. The best overall pitcher in the pen right now might be recently called up prospect Rubby De La Rosa, who now has five strikeouts in his first five innings as a result of his knockout stuff. But the 21-year-old Dominican might need to return to starting at some point, and it's Javy Guerra who got the last save for the Dodgers. Guerra pairs a 94-MPH fastball with a good slider, but he's had control problems in the minor leagues that could resurface at any time. Matt Guerrier is still doing his steady-eddy, but five walks against four strikeouts in his last seven appearances is not impressive. Call De La Rosa the dark horse, Guerra the flavor of the moment, and Guerrier the bland backup plan. Oh and Vicente Padilla should be back Friday to make this even harder to parse.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (hip surgery)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros (shoulder)
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers (forearm)
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins (elbow)
Comment:Jose Contreras returned from the DL a setup man. So did Andrew Bailey, but it's Bailey that will close again soon.Brad Lidge, on the other hand, only touched 87 MPH in extended spring training Tuesday so he's got a ways to go. Joe Nathan ended up back on the DL with elbow soreness that Twins' doctors say is common in Tommy John returners. He's working out but not throwing and should be back in June. The DL is the perfect place to stash Nathan until he finds it.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Fernando Rodney got a save! Jordan Walden needed the day off. Ryan Franklin struck out three in a scoreless eighth inning! That's bigger news, potentially.* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentNyjer Morgan is a hot-head. And, sure, he strikes out a bit much and is probably more of a .275-.285 hitter going forward. But in full seasons, he's averaged 38 steals per, and he plays a good enough center field that the Brewers can sit the glove-only Carlos Gomez most days. In fact, the only time Gomez will probably start is when the Brewers face lefties. So, even if you don't like him, pick up Morgan if you need speed.
Tony Campana caught the attention of Cubs fans and fantasy players alike when he stole four bases Monday - on one hit and one walk. The lefty might not play against lefties, and he has absolutely no power. He doesn't really walk a ton either. But it's either him or Lou Montanez (another flawed player) in center field for the Cubs these days after Alfonso Soriano joined Marlon Byrd, Jeff Baker and Reed Johnson on the DL. A decimated outfield might just be your shot at a few saves in a short time. Like, say, four stolen bases in one game.