If predicting the NFL draft is an inexact science, predicting the MLB draft is a nonexistent one.
Where NFL teams are typically drafting players (in the first round) that will not only contribute but start the following fall, the MLB draft is all about the long haul.
Since the draft was instituted in 1965, just 20 players have skipped the minor leagues and made their professional debut in the majors.
Those being drafted also tend to have options.
If you're a high school player, you can threaten to attend college if you want to drive up your bonus or increase your chances of falling to a team you like. If you're a college player with a little patience, like
Aaron Crow, you can simply refuse to sign and re-enter the draft the following year if you don't like the money or the team offering it.
Perhaps the most important difference, however, is that the NFL has a slotting system that is actually adhered to, and not just treated as a loose guideline.
In baseball, your "signability" is everything. Top 10 talents can fall out of the first round thanks to fears they will play hardball at the negotiating table, which just isn't a realistic option in the NFL (ask Michael Crabtree).
Throw in the fact that major-league front offices house some of the most paranoid people in the country, and everything combines to make forecasting the MLB draft a difficult task for even the most connected of insiders. That's why instead of projecting when their names will be called on Monday evening, we'll instead just get you up to speed on the draft's 33 most interesting prospects.
Potential No. 1 overall picksUnlike the past two years, which saw the best pitching prospect in a generation taken in 2009 and the best hitting prospect in a generation taken in 2010, there is no clear-cut choice for the Pirates to take with the top overall pick this summer, though it is expected to come down to three or four players.
Danny Hultzen - LHP - University of Virginia The draft's most "polished" pitcher, Hultzen's ceiling isn't considered to be quite as high as you would expect for someone in play to go No. 1 overall.
Not that his credentials are unimpressive. The engine behind UVA's 49-9 season, he boasts a 10-3 record to go along with a 1.59 ERA and 136/16 K/BB ratio in 96 1/3 innings over 14 starts.
Solidly built at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, he has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s to go along with a developing slider and an unusually effective changeup for a 21-year-old.
The Pirates are known to look for relative value in the first round, and not necessarily the highest-upside, so if they decide to take the path of least resistance, Hultzen will be the route they go.
Gerrit Cole - RHP - UCLAIf highest ceiling is what the Bucs decide to go with, then it would not be surprising to see them settle on Cole.
A 6-foot-4, 220 pound righty, Cole is the closest thing this draft has to a
Stephen Strasburg, though that is admittedly not very close.
His fastball reaches 100, while like Hultzen, he boasts an impressive changeup. Unlike Hultzen, his breaking ball is also considered ready for primetime.
So what's the hang up?
Cole wasn't even close to being the best pitcher on his own college team this season (more on that in a second). Entering the NCAA tournament, he is a middling 6-7 in 15 starts, and the owner of a 3.28 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 107 innings of work.
Certainly good numbers, but hardly befitting of someone that might be the first player off the board this Monday. If you can barely strike out a batter an inning in the Pac 12, what should you be expected to do in the National League Central?
A 100 mile-per-hour fastball will get you far in life, and if Cole is taken with the first pick, it will be because of the potential of his heater, and not his college production.
Trevor Bauer - RHP - UCLASo if a potential No. 1 pick wasn't even the best pitcher on his own college team, who was better? That would be Bauer, a not quite 6-foot-1, 185 pound righty that has drawn more than one comparison to
Tim Lincecum thanks to his diminutive build, and, of course, devastating fastball, which sits in the mid-90s.
If Cole's college statistics are head scratching, Bauer's are, for lack of a better word, awesome. He has won 12 of his 15 starts this spring, posting a 1.27 ERA and dominating 189 strikeouts in 127 2/3 innings.
With comparisons to Lincecum, however, comes another label: injury risk. Lincecum famously fell to No. 10 in the 2006 draft thanks to concerns over his slight build and unusual delivery, which some figured made him a ticking time bomb for injury.
Bauer has routinely exceeded 130 pitches during his college career, so it's hard not to place at least some credence in the pre-draft pessimism. Even though he's produced as much as any player that will be taken on Monday, he's a long-shot to go in the top spot.
Anthony Rendon - 3B - RiceThis bring us to the last player thought to be in play for the No. 1 pick.
Like Bauer, Rendon has been insanely productive during his college career, hitting .394 to go along with 26 home runs (compared to just 22 strikeouts) and a .530 on-base percentage as a sophomore.
However, like with Cole, the elite production you'd expect from someone in play to be the No. 1 overall pick has been missing this year for Rendon, as a shoulder injury has limited him to just six home runs and a .327 average.
He is still reaching base at a sterling .523 clip, but that's likely due in part to the reputation he earned as a sophomore.
Opinions are mixed as to just how serious his injury is/was. He has been limited to DH duties for nearly the entire year, though he did curiously play some second base toward the end of last month, seen as a red flag by some.
However, ESPN's Keith Law has spoken with a source that assures him "there is nothing structurally wrong with Rendon's shoulder," and it does not appear set to be a deal-breaker for the Pirates.
That tends to happen when a player draws frequent comparisons to two of the best third basemen going today,
Ryan Zimmerman and
Evan Longoria.
If predicting the NFL draft is an inexact science, predicting the MLB draft is a nonexistent one.
Where NFL teams are typically drafting players (in the first round) that will not only contribute but start the following fall, the MLB draft is all about the long haul.
Since the draft was instituted in 1965, just 20 players have skipped the minor leagues and made their professional debut in the majors.
Those being drafted also tend to have options.
If you're a high school player, you can threaten to attend college if you want to drive up your bonus or increase your chances of falling to a team you like. If you're a college player with a little patience, like
Aaron Crow, you can simply refuse to sign and re-enter the draft the following year if you don't like the money or the team offering it.
Perhaps the most important difference, however, is that the NFL has a slotting system that is actually adhered to, and not just treated as a loose guideline.
In baseball, your "signability" is everything. Top 10 talents can fall out of the first round thanks to fears they will play hardball at the negotiating table, which just isn't a realistic option in the NFL (ask Michael Crabtree).
Throw in the fact that major-league front offices house some of the most paranoid people in the country, and everything combines to make forecasting the MLB draft a difficult task for even the most connected of insiders. That's why instead of projecting when their names will be called on Monday evening, we'll instead just get you up to speed on the draft's 33 most interesting prospects.
Potential No. 1 overall picksUnlike the past two years, which saw the best pitching prospect in a generation taken in 2009 and the best hitting prospect in a generation taken in 2010, there is no clear-cut choice for the Pirates to take with the top overall pick this summer, though it is expected to come down to three or four players.
Danny Hultzen - LHP - University of Virginia The draft's most "polished" pitcher, Hultzen's ceiling isn't considered to be quite as high as you would expect for someone in play to go No. 1 overall.
Not that his credentials are unimpressive. The engine behind UVA's 49-9 season, he boasts a 10-3 record to go along with a 1.59 ERA and 136/16 K/BB ratio in 96 1/3 innings over 14 starts.
Solidly built at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, he has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s to go along with a developing slider and an unusually effective changeup for a 21-year-old.
The Pirates are known to look for relative value in the first round, and not necessarily the highest-upside, so if they decide to take the path of least resistance, Hultzen will be the route they go.
Gerrit Cole - RHP - UCLAIf highest ceiling is what the Bucs decide to go with, then it would not be surprising to see them settle on Cole.
A 6-foot-4, 220 pound righty, Cole is the closest thing this draft has to a
Stephen Strasburg, though that is admittedly not very close.
His fastball reaches 100, while like Hultzen, he boasts an impressive changeup. Unlike Hultzen, his breaking ball is also considered ready for primetime.
So what's the hang up?
Cole wasn't even close to being the best pitcher on his own college team this season (more on that in a second). Entering the NCAA tournament, he is a middling 6-7 in 15 starts, and the owner of a 3.28 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 107 innings of work.
Certainly good numbers, but hardly befitting of someone that might be the first player off the board this Monday. If you can barely strike out a batter an inning in the Pac 12, what should you be expected to do in the National League Central?
A 100 mile-per-hour fastball will get you far in life, and if Cole is taken with the first pick, it will be because of the potential of his heater, and not his college production.
Trevor Bauer - RHP - UCLASo if a potential No. 1 pick wasn't even the best pitcher on his own college team, who was better? That would be Bauer, a not quite 6-foot-1, 185 pound righty that has drawn more than one comparison to
Tim Lincecum thanks to his diminutive build, and, of course, devastating fastball, which sits in the mid-90s.
If Cole's college statistics are head scratching, Bauer's are, for lack of a better word, awesome. He has won 12 of his 15 starts this spring, posting a 1.27 ERA and dominating 189 strikeouts in 127 2/3 innings.
With comparisons to Lincecum, however, comes another label: injury risk. Lincecum famously fell to No. 10 in the 2006 draft thanks to concerns over his slight build and unusual delivery, which some figured made him a ticking time bomb for injury.
Bauer has routinely exceeded 130 pitches during his college career, so it's hard not to place at least some credence in the pre-draft pessimism. Even though he's produced as much as any player that will be taken on Monday, he's a long-shot to go in the top spot.
Anthony Rendon - 3B - RiceThis bring us to the last player thought to be in play for the No. 1 pick.
Like Bauer, Rendon has been insanely productive during his college career, hitting .394 to go along with 26 home runs (compared to just 22 strikeouts) and a .530 on-base percentage as a sophomore.
However, like with Cole, the elite production you'd expect from someone in play to be the No. 1 overall pick has been missing this year for Rendon, as a shoulder injury has limited him to just six home runs and a .327 average.
He is still reaching base at a sterling .523 clip, but that's likely due in part to the reputation he earned as a sophomore.
Opinions are mixed as to just how serious his injury is/was. He has been limited to DH duties for nearly the entire year, though he did curiously play some second base toward the end of last month, seen as a red flag by some.
However, ESPN's Keith Law has spoken with a source that assures him "there is nothing structurally wrong with Rendon's shoulder," and it does not appear set to be a deal-breaker for the Pirates.
That tends to happen when a player draws frequent comparisons to two of the best third basemen going today,
Ryan Zimmerman and
Evan Longoria.
The best of the restDylan Bundy - RHP - HSBundy has made waves this spring, and not just because his fastball reaches 100 miles per hour.
The Owasso, Okla. product has reportedly warned teams that would attempt to wean him off his long-toss program, which involves playing catch from distances as far as 300 feet, not to draft him.
The dictum was likely directed at the Pirates and Royals (who choose fifth), who do not advocate long-toss.
The Mariners (second), Diamondbacks (third), Orioles (fourth) and Nationals (sixth) all do, however, making them attractive landing spots for a rare prep pitcher thought to be close to major-league ready.
Bundy has a big-league ready cutter, and turned in absurd, videogame-like stats as a senior, posting a 156/5 K/BB ratio in 71 innings.
Bubba Starling - OF - HSStarling is one of two elite prep prospects that also has a scholarship offer to play quarterback at one of the nation's top football schools.
A native of the Kansas City area, Starling could either help usher in the Big 10 era at Nebraska, or enter next spring as one of the top position prospects in all of baseball.
A center fielder, he is a true five-tool player built like, well a quarterback, at 6-foot-5, 200 pounds. He is expected to ultimately choose baseball.
Archie Bradley - RHP - HSBradley has an offer to quarterback Nebraska's one-time biggest rival, the Oklahoma Sooners.
At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, he possesses an upper-90s fastball, and profiles as a true power pitcher.
He hails from Broken Arrow, Okla., so the pull to play for Bob Stoops will be strong, but like Starling, he is still likely to ultimately end up as a major-league pitcher.
Francisco Lindor - SS - HSThe top high school shortstop in this year's draft, Lindor is not thought to be extraordinary in any one area besides defense, but is above-average in all phases of the game.
Likely to develop into a gap hitter with good speed, Lindor is high energy, and the kind of player most major-league teams would love to plug in at one of the most important defensive positions on the field.
Javier Baez - SS - HSIf Lindor is the top prep shortstop, Baez is a very close second.
His tools are the opposite, however. Where Lindor is already a plus defender growing into his bat, Baez is a raw and powerful hitter that may eventually be moved somewhere else on the diamond, possibly third base.
He will likely need at least three or four years in the minor leagues to develop his plate discipline.
Levi Michael - SS - UNCLindor and Baez are the draft's top two shortstops, but Michael joins them to form a very solid trio at the position.
A switch-hitter, Michael has good plate discipline and mostly hits for contact. He is an average defender and slightly above-average runner.
He sounds a lot like the last ballyhooed position prospect to come out of North Carolina,
Dustin Ackley.
Matt Purke - LHP - TCUOne of the draft's more unfortunate stories, Purke was originally one of the favorites for the No. 1 pick this summer after going 16-0 at TCU in 2010.
A first-round pick of the Rangers' in 2009, Purke is dealing with a shoulder injury, however, and saw his velocity dip from the upper-90s to the upper-80s this spring.
He has still been productive, posting a 1.51 ERA over 47 2/3 innings, but red flags don't get more glaring than shoulder issues.
Alex Meyer - RHP - KentuckyMeyer has a fastball that can reach 99 miles per hour, a plus slider and No. 1 starter upside.
He is not without issues, however. He has experienced minor shoulder problems in the past, and was strangely ineffective during his first two seasons at Kentucky. He also walked 46 batters this past spring. If he falls out of the top 10, that will be why.
Matt Barnes - RHP - UConnOne of two Huskies on this list, Barnes sports a mid-90s fastball and plus curveball to go along with a developing (which in this case means below-average) slider.
A lanky 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, he may need more time in the minor leagues than most college hurlers thanks to some suspect command.
George Springer - OF - UConnBarnes' teammate is one of the top position prospects in the draft, sporting all five tools, a rarity for a college prospect.
A particularly good baserunner and defender, questions still remain about his approach at the plate, however.
While he gets his money's worth when he makes contact, he is currently swinging and missing far too often. He will need ample time to develop, not the best thing for a player that will turn 22 in September.
Sonny Gray - RHP - VanderbiltGray is close to MLB ready, but does not have an "ace" ceiling.
At 5-foot-11, he has a fastball that can reach the mid-90s, but usually sits in the low-90s. He has an above-average curveball, but not the most refined command.
If he can sharpen up his control, he could be a future No. 2 or 3 starter. If not, he could be destined to be a holds specialist.
Taylor Jungmann - RHP - TexasWhat would the draft be without a power pitcher from Texas?
Jungmann doesn't have classic Texas heat — he does not reach the upper-90s — but boasts excellent command to go along with a lower-to-mid 90s fastball and plus changeup and curveball.
At 6-foot-6, 220 pounds, he's a towering presence on the mound, and a strike-thrower. He's likely to be one of the fastest from this draft class when it comes to reaching the majors.
Jed Bradley - LHP - Georgia TechLike Gray, Bradley is viewed as more of an MLB-ready arm than future ace.
However, he still may be the draft's second best left-hander despite some struggles at Georgia Tech this spring.
Although none of his four pitches are considered extraordinary, he does have four pitches, and can hit the mid-90s with his fastball.
Mikie Mahtook - OF - LSUViewed as a potential five-tool talent, Mahtook boasts developing power to go along with an above-average arm and speed.
Projected as a major-league center fielder, it's quite possible he'll end up as one of the most productive players from a draft class considered to be very deep.
Brandon Nimmo - OF - HSAn 18 year old out of Wyoming, Nimmo has established himself as one of the top outfielders in the draft despite the fact that his high school did not have a baseball team.
A left-handed bat that can consistently hit line drives, Nimmo owns good speed and is thought to be a future power hitter. Thanks to his lack of exposure, he could fall much further than his talent dictates, and end up being a tremendous steal.
Blake Swihart - C - HSThe draft's top catching prospect, some believe a position change may eventually be in order for Swihart, who is a very average defender.
His bat is earning lots of attention, however, as he makes consistent contact, and usually with good authority.
Thanks to below average speed and a plus arm, it's not a foregone conclusion he'll ultimately end up somewhere else on the diamond.
Josh Bell - OF - HSPerhaps the top prep position prospect in the draft, Bell is a switch-hitter with true power.
He has also reportedly sent a letter to all 30 teams imploring them not to draft him, however, claiming he is firm in his committment to play for the University of Texas next season.
Of course, he has retained Scott Boras as his adviser, so he may just be playing hardball.
Daniel Norris - LHP - HSIn a year dominated by right-handers, Norris is likely the top prep lefty.
He has excellent command of a fastball that sits at around 92, and has been able to dial up some extra miles per hour in the past. He is not viewed as a future ace, but could turn into an above-average major-league hurler.
His first order of business in the minor leagues will be refining his curveball.
Henry Owens - LHP - HSOwens joins Norris as the only other notable prep lefty in a curiously thin field.
A towering 6-foot-6 but frail 195 pounds, he needs to fill out before he does anything else.
Praised for a deceptive delivery and mighty hook, a below average fastball is the main reason he isn't likely to go in the top 20.
Taylor Guerrieri - RHP - HSGuerrieri has some of the best raw stuff in the draft, with a mid-90s fastball and huge breaking ball, but can't yet command either with enough consistency.
Could end up attending South Carolina in the fall.
Larry Greene - OF - HS One of the draft's premiere power prospects, Greene is thought to be deficient most everywhere else, including on defense, the bases and when it comes to making contact.
He has a ton of upside, but a long developmental period ahead of him.
Kolten Wong - Hawaii - 2BUnder-sized at 5-foot-9, 190 pounds, Wong is nevertheless one of the best pure hitters available this year.
He is not going to provide much power, but has a great approach at the plate to go along with plus speed. Close to major-league ready.
Jose Fernandez - RHP - HS An intimidating presence on the mound, Fernandez has a plus-slider to pair with an upper-90s fastball.
He needs to develop a changeup, but has unusually good control for an 18 year old, and has some of the most upside in the draft.
Cory Spangenberg - 3B - Indian River State CollegeA left-handed hitter, Spangenberg is thought to be a sure-thing contact prospect.
It just remains to be seen if he'll develop enough power to stick at the hot corner.
Dillon Howard - RHP - HSHoward possesses a mid-90s fastball with nasty movement.
Combine that with his 6-foot-4, 210 pound frame and a heavy breaking ball, and you've got one of the draft's most exciting prep righties.
Robert Stephenson - RHP - HSThe owner of a 96 mile-per-hour fastball, Stephenson is still working on harnessing his changeup and breaking ball.
He's also a bit slight, tipping the scales at barely 180 pounds. He will likely need a number of years in the minor leagues.
Andrew Susac - C - Oregon StateThis year's top college catcher, Susac was slowed by a broken hamate bone this past spring.
He has raw power, and the ability to go the other way for gap doubles. Although his defensive ability is not anything out of the ordinary, he is expected to stick behind the plate.
Jackie Bradley - OF - South CarolinaA one-time surefire first rounder, Bradley's junior year of college was marred by a wrist injury that helped hold him to a .259 average.
He also has below-average speed for a center fielder. However, he is still considered an above-average defender, and despite his slight 5-foot-10, 180 pound frame, he has a power bat. Unlikely to slip out of the first round.
C.J. Cron - 1B - UtahPerhaps the top first base prospect in a draft bereft of them, Cron can hit for both average and power, and uses all fields well.
At 6-foot-4, 235 pounds, he has first base size, and it would not be surprising to eventually see him as a top 10 fantasy first baseman.
You can find Patrick Daugherty on Twitter @RotoPat