Soria Back So Soon?
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Some magical arbitration date has passed unseen in the night. How else would you explain the rash of teams suddenly deciding that their young players are ready for the big leagues? Our collective unconscious only goes so far.
It's silly that we've been deprived of the services of
Brett Lawrie,
Dustin Ackley,
Anthony Rizzo,
Jemile Weeks, and to some extent Charlie Blackmon this long. And yet, under the 'Super Two' rule, it made the most financial sense for their teams to keep those exciting young players in the minor leagues. Can't get too angry about it - hate the game not the player, in other words.
Now we get a week full of debuts in the middle of June. There are worse things. In honor of all the debuts we'll see, let's name the closer tiers this week after some of the more interesting debuts of all time.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Juan Marichal" Tier.)Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Apologies to Stephen Strasburg, who debuted with 14 strikeouts in seven innings and triple-digits on the radar gun, but Juan Marichal was perhaps even more dominating in his debut. After throwing a shutout with 12 strikeouts against one walk, he was well on his way to establishing his legacy. Good thing that Jonathan Papelbon has an established legacy of his own, because June has not been kind to the closer. He's given up six runs while getting ten outs, but he hasn't officially been hung with a blown save. He's still only walked three guys since May 1st, and he's still an excellent closer. The only other news to report in this tier is that Brian Wilson only has two walks in his last eight appearances, which is a huge step forward for him and solidifies his position in this tier.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "J.P. Arencibia" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
He won't ever have as nice a batting average as he did after his first game, but J.P. Arencibia does have great power and is a good young catcher. He gave lessons in how to debut by hitting two home runs and a double and ending up four for his first five with a boffo slugging percentage.J.J. Putz has the strikeout to walk ratio of an elite tier guy, but the injury history of a roller coaster guy. He blew his first save of the season against the Marlins last Wednesday, but recovered to strike out four guys in his last two innings. Really, you could say the exact same things about Huston Street. Their strikeout to walk ratios are almost identical, even. As long as those two guys are healthy, they belong here.It's Carlos Marmol that drops to the bottom of the tier. He blew a save in St. Louis and normally we'd laugh that off as the single and shallow double that it was, but it doesn't come long after his blown save on the last day of May. His velocity is down a couple ticks, too. Still, he's got a double-digit strikeout rate and should be fine going forward.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Jeremy Hermida" Tier.)
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Comment:Yup. Jason Heyward debuted with a home run and four RBI, which is great and all, but did you know that Jeremy Hermida did the exact same thing - and did it in a single at-bat? Not bad at all.Francisco Rodriguez has the specter of a trade looming over his head, and now he's given up eight runs in his last six appearances. He's also showing the worst strikeout rate of his career, held up by the worst swinging strike rate of his career. When he pitches, he's not bad, but the rest of the picture is a toxic portrait that deserves to knock him down a tier.By only walking one dude in his last three appearances, and throwing 7 2/3 straight scoreless innings, Sergio Santos zooms to the top of this tier. That the rest of the tier has muddled along this week certainly helped. Leo Nunez and Drew Storen both blew saves, John Axford has five walks in his last four innings, and Chris Perez has only one more strikeout than he has walks. Still, they should all be fine for the most part. Chris Perez has Vinnie Pestano racking up whiffs by the bushel behind him, and it won't take much of a stumble for him to lose the job. The manager can see his strikeout to walk ratio as much as any of us can.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Troy Tulowitzki" Tier.)
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Comment:
Do you remember the debut of Troy Tulowitzi? He'd likely hope you didn't, as he went hitless in four at-bats with three strikeouts. Still, it has turned out okay for him since.As change came quickly for Tulo - he hit his first home run five games later - change could come quickly for this tier. Jordan Walden still has the gas and the strikeout rate of a tier above, but the walks are a little worrisome. He also gave up two runs in a shaky save in the past week. Andrew Bailey has the talent of a better tier, but he's only pitched three times since he returned and one was a blown save. Brandon League doesn't miss bats, but he gets grounders and has given up only five base-runners in his last nine innings. If you're an impatient fellow, just look to the benefit of patience with the final closer in this tier. It was tempting to say he was in trouble and should be in the bottom tier - and he still hasn't shown the elite skills that he had his rookie year - but in his last four appearances, Neftali Feliz has not given up a run or a walk and has struck out two. A few more strikeouts and he'll make for a buy-low even.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Some magical arbitration date has passed unseen in the night. How else would you explain the rash of teams suddenly deciding that their young players are ready for the big leagues? Our collective unconscious only goes so far.
It's silly that we've been deprived of the services of
Brett Lawrie,
Dustin Ackley,
Anthony Rizzo,
Jemile Weeks, and to some extent Charlie Blackmon this long. And yet, under the 'Super Two' rule, it made the most financial sense for their teams to keep those exciting young players in the minor leagues. Can't get too angry about it - hate the game not the player, in other words.
Now we get a week full of debuts in the middle of June. There are worse things. In honor of all the debuts we'll see, let's name the closer tiers this week after some of the more interesting debuts of all time.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Juan Marichal" Tier.)Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Apologies to Stephen Strasburg, who debuted with 14 strikeouts in seven innings and triple-digits on the radar gun, but Juan Marichal was perhaps even more dominating in his debut. After throwing a shutout with 12 strikeouts against one walk, he was well on his way to establishing his legacy. Good thing that Jonathan Papelbon has an established legacy of his own, because June has not been kind to the closer. He's given up six runs while getting ten outs, but he hasn't officially been hung with a blown save. He's still only walked three guys since May 1st, and he's still an excellent closer. The only other news to report in this tier is that Brian Wilson only has two walks in his last eight appearances, which is a huge step forward for him and solidifies his position in this tier.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "J.P. Arencibia" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
He won't ever have as nice a batting average as he did after his first game, but J.P. Arencibia does have great power and is a good young catcher. He gave lessons in how to debut by hitting two home runs and a double and ending up four for his first five with a boffo slugging percentage.J.J. Putz has the strikeout to walk ratio of an elite tier guy, but the injury history of a roller coaster guy. He blew his first save of the season against the Marlins last Wednesday, but recovered to strike out four guys in his last two innings. Really, you could say the exact same things about Huston Street. Their strikeout to walk ratios are almost identical, even. As long as those two guys are healthy, they belong here.It's Carlos Marmol that drops to the bottom of the tier. He blew a save in St. Louis and normally we'd laugh that off as the single and shallow double that it was, but it doesn't come long after his blown save on the last day of May. His velocity is down a couple ticks, too. Still, he's got a double-digit strikeout rate and should be fine going forward.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Jeremy Hermida" Tier.)Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Comment:Yup. Jason Heyward debuted with a home run and four RBI, which is great and all, but did you know that Jeremy Hermida did the exact same thing - and did it in a single at-bat? Not bad at all.Francisco Rodriguez has the specter of a trade looming over his head, and now he's given up eight runs in his last six appearances. He's also showing the worst strikeout rate of his career, held up by the worst swinging strike rate of his career. When he pitches, he's not bad, but the rest of the picture is a toxic portrait that deserves to knock him down a tier.By only walking one dude in his last three appearances, and throwing 7 2/3 straight scoreless innings, Sergio Santos zooms to the top of this tier. That the rest of the tier has muddled along this week certainly helped. Leo Nunez and Drew Storen both blew saves, John Axford has five walks in his last four innings, and Chris Perez has only one more strikeout than he has walks. Still, they should all be fine for the most part. Chris Perez has Vinnie Pestano racking up whiffs by the bushel behind him, and it won't take much of a stumble for him to lose the job. The manager can see his strikeout to walk ratio as much as any of us can.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Troy Tulowitzki" Tier.)
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Comment:
Do you remember the debut of Troy Tulowitzi? He'd likely hope you didn't, as he went hitless in four at-bats with three strikeouts. Still, it has turned out okay for him since.As change came quickly for Tulo - he hit his first home run five games later - change could come quickly for this tier. Jordan Walden still has the gas and the strikeout rate of a tier above, but the walks are a little worrisome. He also gave up two runs in a shaky save in the past week. Andrew Bailey has the talent of a better tier, but he's only pitched three times since he returned and one was a blown save. Brandon League doesn't miss bats, but he gets grounders and has given up only five base-runners in his last nine innings. If you're an impatient fellow, just look to the benefit of patience with the final closer in this tier. It was tempting to say he was in trouble and should be in the bottom tier - and he still hasn't shown the elite skills that he had his rookie year - but in his last four appearances, Neftali Feliz has not given up a run or a walk and has struck out two. A few more strikeouts and he'll make for a buy-low even.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "Doug Davis" Tier.)1st Chair:
Fernando Salas, 2nd Chair:
Eduardo Sanchez, St. Louis Cardinals
1st Chair:
Ryan Madson, 2nd Chair:
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies
1st Chair:
Joakim Soria, 2nd Chair:
Aaron Crow, Kansas City Royals
1st Chair:
Kevin Gregg, 2nd Chair:
Koji Uehara, Baltimore Orioles
1st Chair:
Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair:
Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros
1st Chair:
Jon Rauch, 2nd Chair:
Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair:
Javy Guerra, 2nd Chair:
Matt Guerrier, Los Angeles Dodgers
Comment:Doug Davis! Davis has been useful to teams as a journeyman innings-eater, but he didn't eat many innings in his first attempt at the league. In fact, he only got seven outs, and in the process gave up ten runs on three home runs. Ug. Fernando Salas blew his first save of the season right as we were ready to promote him. Then he gave up a run in two innings Tuesday night, but got the save. Neither appearance was terrible, so he'll probably move up next week. The same could be said for Ryan Madson, who is only where he is because of the imminent return of Brad Lidge. Any more updates about Lidge throwing slower than 90 on the gun, though, and Madson zooms up our list.That was fast. Joakim Soria is apparently back in the closer's chair, only a week after losing it. In the meantime, he's pitched five clean innings and has been declared fit for duty. The strange thing is that he only struck out one batter in those five innings, and none of his velocity readings recovered. This saga is not over, and Aaron Crow may close again this year, wether from injury or trade. Maybe Kevin Gregg heard us talking crap. In the last week, he saved three straight with five strikeouts against no walks. That kind of work will help him keep his job. Not the three previous innings where he struck out one against six walks. Unfortunately, Frank Francisco has not yet heard us talking trash. He pitched in a non-save situation Monday (and gave up a run and got the loss), and then Jon Rauch got the save Tuesday. It's not *quite* time to drop Francisco, but that time approaches rapidly. Unfortunately for Mark Melancon, Brandon Lyon is nearing a return. Unfortunately for Brandon Lyon, Mark Melancon has pitched better than him this year. In the last week, M&M struck out seven and walked two while getting two saves. It's the kind of strikeout rate that Lyon can't usually muster, especially not when recovering from rotator cuff issues.Another tea leaves update for Los Angeles! Tuesday, Matt Guerrier pitched the seventh inning in a close game, meaning his manager was not saving him for the save. By the time that ninth rolled around, Javy Guerra was pitching with a lead too large to get the save. But he did pitch the ninth, and the other best pitcher in the pen, Rubby De La Rosa, started the game. It might be more more and more likely that the Dodgers' closer for the rest of the year is on the disabled list right now. That should narrow it down… a little. * * * * * * * * * *
Injured David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (elbow)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros (shoulder)
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers (forearm/neck)
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins (elbow)
Comment:David Aardsma doesn't have news-news, but he does have news about news. He'll check in with doctors sometime in the next two weeks to see if he can still avoid Tommy John surgery.Brad Lidge had a flareup in his elbow but the Phillies doctor declared it normal and said no serious damage was found in the elbow. He still has a little ways to go. Jonathan Broxton is closer to returning, as he threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is scheduled for another on Thursday. Both might actually close when they return, as unbelievable as that may sound right now. Vicente Padilla could also close in Los Angeles, now that his forearm is healed, but he's having trouble with his bulging disk in his neck now. It's an old injury, and there's no timetable yet. Hopefully, the same can't be said about Brandon Lyon. He did toss a perfect inning Tuesday, and he is on track to return this week, but he isn't really a better pitcher than Mark Melancon. Still, he should be owned just in case his team decides to keep running him out there.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Joe Nathan has not yet resumed throwing. Ryan Franklin is back in the dog-house. Will Frank Francisco officially join this group soon?* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentDee Gordon is fast. Dee Gordon has a famous father in Tom Gordon. Dee Gordon is now the starting shortstop for the Dodgers. Dee Gordon collected three hits and a steal in his first game. Dee Gordon has plenty of people excited. But Dee Gordon should also have you apprehensive. Because Dee Gordon has absolutely no power. And Dee Gordon has very little patience. Meaning Dee Gordon will have to rack up the singles and the steals to be worth it. That means Dee Gordon's value is completely dependent on the bounce of the batted ball. So be very careful when you decide whom to drop for Dee Gordon. In conclusion, Dee Gordon.Brent Lillibridge also has his flaws. He's striking out a little too much to keep his batting average this nice, and though he's showing great power right now, he hasn't before. The former infielder is now a center-fielder-slash-right-fielder, and the team is having some trouble getting Alex Rios going. If you can handle some poor batting average days in the future, though, Lillibridge should at the very least continue playing against lefties. His splits against southpaws throughout the years have been better. In the deepest of leagues, he's not a bad bench spot for a little power and a little speed.