Which Way Will You Go, Sergio?
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
We've all seen it before. The obvious blown call. Especially when the call goes the wrong way for your team, the emotions that run through your body are priceless: incredulity, anger, disbelief, and maybe a little nihilism might explode within you. Some Tampa Bay Rays fans have this toxic mix still coursing through their veins after the phantom swipe tag of
Justin Ruggiano on Monday.
Maybe there
is a little similarity between the prominent blown call and the dominant closer. Both can leave you pretty f'in upset depending on your allegiances.
So, in the spirit of the moment, we will name the tiers after the most egregious blown calls in recent baseball history. We'll do this even though there's no way that you, personally, could blame an unsuccessful at-bat against one of these guys on the umpire. No, it was probably the high nineties stuff that broke hard in on your hands that decided that at-bat.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Derek Jeter - Jeffrey Maier home run" Tier.)Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
In 1996, the Orioles weren't so bad. They could have even beaten the Yankees that year in the playoffs. Unfortunately, a twelve-year-old fan turned a Derek Jeter fly ball into a home run. Apologies to Cards fans, who may rightfully believe the Denkinger calls to be worse, but 1985 was a long time ago. Heath Bell had a bad week - he gave up the deciding two runs in two games and looked human. He's also walked five batters in his last seven outings, and only 11 all year. Lastly, former GM Jim Bowden said recently that Bell would be the most surprising player to remain with his team after the trade deadline this year. So maybe it's a good time to shop your excellent closer and go find Mike Adams on the wire. But not at the same time, that would be too obvious. Brian Wilson moves up because he's only walked three batters in June, which bodes well for him. (To be fair, though, his last strikeout may have been a blown call.)
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Armando Galarraga (im)perfect game" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
It didn't decide the game. It didn't decide a series. But the blown call on what should have been the final play of a no-hitter by Armando Galarraga was egregious. Everyone immediately knew the call was wrong and even the umpire, Jim Joyce, admitted that he got it wrong.Craig Kimbrel had a bad week, but it wasn't as bad as Joyce's week after the blown call. He gave up three earned runs in two outings and blew his fifth save of the season. The second appearance came in a non-save chance, and Jonny Venters also managed a save this week, so it made sense to wonder if the closer was on shaky ground. Despite Venters' amazing ground-ball rates and dominating presence, Kimbrel is still the closer. He doesn't have the same career platoon splits as Venters, and managers usually prefer strikeout pitchers to ground-ball dudes in the ninth inning. He'll be fine.Jose Valverde deserves some positive attention. He hasn't given up a run since May 29th, and he's struck out six batters in five June outings. Sure, he's been walking a few more than normal, but he's been one of the best values at the position all year. Kudos to those that drafted him. Of course, Joel Hanrahan was cheaper and has been even more dominant, but that's besides the point.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Kent Hrbek lifting Ron Gant's leg" Tier.)Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Comment:No, this one had nothing to do with urinating. Ron Gant was trying to get back to the bag and Kent Hrbek helped him travel right past it for the successful pickoff. It came in a big moment, in the World Series that the Twins eventually won. It didn't have quite the same feel of injustice as the others, however: it was equal parts Hrbek craftiness, Gant over-aggressiveness, and umpire negligence.John Axford sure overcame his early-season issues. He has ten straight appearances without a run, and though he walked the bases loaded a couple weeks ago, his walk rate has settled into mere Axford-ian territory. While he's still throwing 95 MPH gas and striking out 11+ per nine innings, he can afford that slightly wonky walk rate.Jordan Walden finally makes the jump he's deserved for a while now. We were ready to move him up in the last week of June, but then he had a little blip. Now he's held June scoreless, with seven strikeouts and no walks in four innings this month. His 98 MPH, coupled with better than Axford-ian control, means that there's even more upside with this young man. With every successful save, he makes his case to move up the rankings. The risk with these rankings comes from the sample size. Most of these closers have pitched only about 20+ innings so far this year, and it's hard to take away a ton from that kind of a sample. Consider Francisco Cordero, who had a poor strikeout rate this year and looked like he was furthering his three-year decline. Monday, Cordero struck out the side. Now his strikeout rate looks about the same as last year's rate, and his improved control makes him interesting. Until he walks three batters in his next outing and returns to his career rate there. This much is true, though. He's not a great pitcher, and he's getting extremely lucky on balls in play. If there were better pitchers behind him in the pen, and his luck was worse, we might be discussing a change here.
Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano and Mike Napoli get in a pickle" Tier.)
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals
Comment:
Talk about incredulity. Jorge Posada gets hung up in a pickle between home and third. Then Robinson Cano gets too close to third base. Then Mike Napoli tags em both out. Then Cano is safe at third. Wha?Sergio Santos has a "Wha?" story of his own. Just two years ago, he was a failed shortstop looking to revitalize his career by moving to the mound. Then this spring he lost a game of 'nose' and was made the closer. He was excellent until just this past week, where he gave up eight runs in three outings and re-started the familiar White Sox closer chatter. He's *probably* fine. But it's worth noting that he has worse control and less strikeout punch than Axford, which is not good news. Santos also walked six batters in those three innings, so control is part of this picture. Watch his walks going forward if you're thinking about acquiring him cheap.Andrew Bailey got his first save of the season and is poised to jump tiers, but also hasn't pitched in back-to-back games yet. Kyle Farnsworth has been improving his strikeout rate recently - he's had seven straight outings with a K - but he did get hung with the loss on Monday. He's still safe. Matt Capps hasn't pitched in a week, when he blew a save, and the Twins are apparently regretting their Wilson Ramos trade now. Sorry, but that's a 'duh.' Neftali Feliz also has three strikeouts in his last three outings - and now walks. Maybe he's healthy now.Finally, Fernando Salas deserves to move up. Sure, he's given up some runs recently, but his manager keeps running him out there and his overall rates still look great. Even those runs he's given up have come in small doses - one at a time. Given the state of the rest of the bullpen, it's starting to look like Salas will be the closer all year.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
We've all seen it before. The obvious blown call. Especially when the call goes the wrong way for your team, the emotions that run through your body are priceless: incredulity, anger, disbelief, and maybe a little nihilism might explode within you. Some Tampa Bay Rays fans have this toxic mix still coursing through their veins after the phantom swipe tag of
Justin Ruggiano on Monday.
Maybe there
is a little similarity between the prominent blown call and the dominant closer. Both can leave you pretty f'in upset depending on your allegiances.
So, in the spirit of the moment, we will name the tiers after the most egregious blown calls in recent baseball history. We'll do this even though there's no way that you, personally, could blame an unsuccessful at-bat against one of these guys on the umpire. No, it was probably the high nineties stuff that broke hard in on your hands that decided that at-bat.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Derek Jeter - Jeffrey Maier home run" Tier.)Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
In 1996, the Orioles weren't so bad. They could have even beaten the Yankees that year in the playoffs. Unfortunately, a twelve-year-old fan turned a Derek Jeter fly ball into a home run. Apologies to Cards fans, who may rightfully believe the Denkinger calls to be worse, but 1985 was a long time ago. Heath Bell had a bad week - he gave up the deciding two runs in two games and looked human. He's also walked five batters in his last seven outings, and only 11 all year. Lastly, former GM Jim Bowden said recently that Bell would be the most surprising player to remain with his team after the trade deadline this year. So maybe it's a good time to shop your excellent closer and go find Mike Adams on the wire. But not at the same time, that would be too obvious. Brian Wilson moves up because he's only walked three batters in June, which bodes well for him. (To be fair, though, his last strikeout may have been a blown call.)
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Armando Galarraga (im)perfect game" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
It didn't decide the game. It didn't decide a series. But the blown call on what should have been the final play of a no-hitter by Armando Galarraga was egregious. Everyone immediately knew the call was wrong and even the umpire, Jim Joyce, admitted that he got it wrong.Craig Kimbrel had a bad week, but it wasn't as bad as Joyce's week after the blown call. He gave up three earned runs in two outings and blew his fifth save of the season. The second appearance came in a non-save chance, and Jonny Venters also managed a save this week, so it made sense to wonder if the closer was on shaky ground. Despite Venters' amazing ground-ball rates and dominating presence, Kimbrel is still the closer. He doesn't have the same career platoon splits as Venters, and managers usually prefer strikeout pitchers to ground-ball dudes in the ninth inning. He'll be fine.Jose Valverde deserves some positive attention. He hasn't given up a run since May 29th, and he's struck out six batters in five June outings. Sure, he's been walking a few more than normal, but he's been one of the best values at the position all year. Kudos to those that drafted him. Of course, Joel Hanrahan was cheaper and has been even more dominant, but that's besides the point.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Kent Hrbek lifting Ron Gant's leg" Tier.)Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Comment:No, this one had nothing to do with urinating. Ron Gant was trying to get back to the bag and Kent Hrbek helped him travel right past it for the successful pickoff. It came in a big moment, in the World Series that the Twins eventually won. It didn't have quite the same feel of injustice as the others, however: it was equal parts Hrbek craftiness, Gant over-aggressiveness, and umpire negligence.John Axford sure overcame his early-season issues. He has ten straight appearances without a run, and though he walked the bases loaded a couple weeks ago, his walk rate has settled into mere Axford-ian territory. While he's still throwing 95 MPH gas and striking out 11+ per nine innings, he can afford that slightly wonky walk rate.Jordan Walden finally makes the jump he's deserved for a while now. We were ready to move him up in the last week of June, but then he had a little blip. Now he's held June scoreless, with seven strikeouts and no walks in four innings this month. His 98 MPH, coupled with better than Axford-ian control, means that there's even more upside with this young man. With every successful save, he makes his case to move up the rankings. The risk with these rankings comes from the sample size. Most of these closers have pitched only about 20+ innings so far this year, and it's hard to take away a ton from that kind of a sample. Consider Francisco Cordero, who had a poor strikeout rate this year and looked like he was furthering his three-year decline. Monday, Cordero struck out the side. Now his strikeout rate looks about the same as last year's rate, and his improved control makes him interesting. Until he walks three batters in his next outing and returns to his career rate there. This much is true, though. He's not a great pitcher, and he's getting extremely lucky on balls in play. If there were better pitchers behind him in the pen, and his luck was worse, we might be discussing a change here.
Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano and Mike Napoli get in a pickle" Tier.)
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals
Comment:
Talk about incredulity. Jorge Posada gets hung up in a pickle between home and third. Then Robinson Cano gets too close to third base. Then Mike Napoli tags em both out. Then Cano is safe at third. Wha?Sergio Santos has a "Wha?" story of his own. Just two years ago, he was a failed shortstop looking to revitalize his career by moving to the mound. Then this spring he lost a game of 'nose' and was made the closer. He was excellent until just this past week, where he gave up eight runs in three outings and re-started the familiar White Sox closer chatter. He's *probably* fine. But it's worth noting that he has worse control and less strikeout punch than Axford, which is not good news. Santos also walked six batters in those three innings, so control is part of this picture. Watch his walks going forward if you're thinking about acquiring him cheap.Andrew Bailey got his first save of the season and is poised to jump tiers, but also hasn't pitched in back-to-back games yet. Kyle Farnsworth has been improving his strikeout rate recently - he's had seven straight outings with a K - but he did get hung with the loss on Monday. He's still safe. Matt Capps hasn't pitched in a week, when he blew a save, and the Twins are apparently regretting their Wilson Ramos trade now. Sorry, but that's a 'duh.' Neftali Feliz also has three strikeouts in his last three outings - and now walks. Maybe he's healthy now.Finally, Fernando Salas deserves to move up. Sure, he's given up some runs recently, but his manager keeps running him out there and his overall rates still look great. Even those runs he's given up have come in small doses - one at a time. Given the state of the rest of the bullpen, it's starting to look like Salas will be the closer all year.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Did Matt Holliday touch the plate" Tier.)1st Chair:
Joakim Soria, 2nd Chair:
Aaron Crow, Kansas City Royals
1st Chair:
Ryan Madson, 2nd Chair:
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies
1st Chair:
Kevin Gregg, 2nd Chair:
Koji Uehara, Baltimore Orioles
1st Chair:
Jon Rauch, 2nd Chair:
Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair:
Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair:
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros
1st Chair:
Javy Guerra, 2nd Chair:
Blake Hawksworth, Los Angeles Dodgers
Comment:Do you think Matt Holliday touched the plate? Or are you sure he didn't? We can't blow up the umpire too badly if we haven't all decided what happened.Don't mistake the lack of arrows for a lack of activity here in the bottom tier. Joakim Soria regained his job and successfully converted three save opportunities in the last week. His velocity has also shown some life in his most recent outings. He now has six strikeouts in his last four innings, which might be the best sign of 'em all. With the contract options in the Royals' back pocket, it's hard to see what happens here. He could recover and remain the closer for the next three years, even. He'll move up the rankings with another good week.On talent alone, Ryan Madson deserves to be higher in the rankings. But with the negativity that Madson used to inspire in Philadelphia, it's worth being cautious with his place in the tiers. Brad Lidge is still rehabbing with mixed results, and with every blown save, Madson's detractors wish for their old closer back. And Madson blew one this week by allowing a ninth-inning home run to Geovany Soto. Kevin Gregg bettered his control the week before last, and then he blew his fourth save of the season in Tampa. Still, he finally has his strikeout-to-walk ratio above one for the season and he's only allowed one run in June. Could he be an ugly-but-effective closer all year? Maybe. Koji Uehara is still a better pitcher.The difference between the two candidates in Toronto is not huge. Jon Rauch is the closer now, and he has good control but lacks the strikeout punch of your normal closer. Frank Francisco is in the dog house now, and does have a home-run problem, but he has the strikeout punch of a closer. The bet is still that Frankie Frank gets the job back once fewer balls leave the park, and buying low on him presents one of the better opportunities for cheap saves on this list right now.No mincing words about it: Brandon Lyon's return has gone terribly for the mediocre pitcher. In three outings since returning, he's given up eight runs. He's only struck out one batter since returning, against two walks and three home runs. He says he's healthy, his manager says he's healthy, but the numbers do not, and nor does the radar gun. He might end up on the DL again. Mark Melancon is probably a better pitcher anyway. Don't drop M&M yet. Only one pitcher has notched a save in Los Angeles over the past week, and it wasn't one of the front-runners for the closing job. Scott Elbert's save on Sunday was a product of the fact that he was a lefty and a lefty was needed. He replaced Blake Hawksworth, who may now be in the mix for saves. Javy Guerra pitched the ninth in a four-run win on Saturday. Matt Guerrier seems to be the "setup man." All of this may change tomorrow.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (elbow)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers (neck)
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins (elbow)
Comment:David Aardsma threw some! We should know more in the next week-plus. Brad Lidge will also provide news soon. He's scheduled to play catch Wednesday. Joe Nathan will throw batting practice on Wednesday, too. Hey! Even Jonathan Broxton is going to throw a bullpen this week. He could even return to closing, since Vicente Padilla is going to have neck surgery and will be out for an 'extended period of time.'The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Expect Brandon Lyon shortly.* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentIt's time to talk about Ben Revere. His game is not without flaws. He has no power at all and might not even hit one home run all year. He needs to walk a little more. Right now he's getting on base at a sub-par rate for a guy that builds his value on his legs. But what Revere does well, he does extremely well. He's stolen five bases in six attempts and should have the green light on the basepaths after topping 40 steals three straight years in the minors. He also plays an excellent center field, which is important. Denard Span's defense in center is not great, so even when he returns from his concussion symptoms he could slide to the corners. Jason Kubel and Jim Thome returning will squeeze Revere's time some - but those two are extreme candidates for mid-season trades. Someone could use them and the Twins need to focus on next year. Charlie Blackmon is not Dexter Fowler. He does not have the same physical tools. He does not switch-hit and he does not have blazing speed. Then again, Charlie Blackmon also does not have a problem making contact. He can take a walk (though he hasn't yet in the majors), but most importantly he won't strike out a lot. He does have good speed (he's stolen four bases already this year), and he has some power. He's polished and ready to go. And now Dexter Fowler is supposedly going to take his time rehabbing in order to figure out his approach at the plate. He might even stop switch-hitting. There's a chance Blackmon sticks.