The Ax(ford) is Bringing Heat
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Write (or read) enough about baseball and you've probably seen the word 'fastball' only about a billion times. It can get old.
And yet there are many different ways to name the old four-seamer. We should push ourselves and push our baseball thesaurus as far as it will go without breaking the binding. We can be less boring about it.
So as part of that effort, we'll name this week's tiers after synonyms for fastball. All rankings are subjective anyway, so it should come as no surprise that we'll be assigning my favorite words to the best closer tiers. Let's push our vocabularies!
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Cheese" Tier.)Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Cheese gets top billing because it begets so many more nicknames. Cheddar, Gouda and even Limburger can be used once the 'cheese' is induced. This even allows the writer to link varieties of cheddar to the player via ethnicity or name. Is there another synonym for the fastball that is as versatile?Is Brian Wilson's WHIP enough to push him out of this tier? After walking 15 batters combined in April and May, he's corralled his cheddar a little better in June. But, still, four walks in three-quarters of a month does not mean he's suddenly painting the corners. He does have awesome stuff, and that probably contributes to his control difficulties. But it also means that we have a top-tier closer with a WHIP over 1.40. And it's not like he owns a strikeout rate like Carlos Marmol. We'll see if he continues making progress or if he's just going to walk guys all year. It's a worthy thing to watch.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Heat" Tier.)Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
This is a fun word to use for fastballs because a) it's kind of a reference to a fun movie and b) I'm pretty sure that I would be able to actually, you know, feel the heat if a fastball blew by me. It's a very evocative nickname. J.J. Putz had a bad week. He's probably not feeling the heat, though. Yes, he blew a save (now three of his last five chances) and gave up three runs in his last two innings (four in his last four). But! He still hasn't walked a guy in June. Call it a slight luck regression that should stop soon if he's fully healthy. The next time someone tells you that elite closers are worth paying for, it might behoove you to point out that there are two cheap closers knocking on the door and demanding entry into the top tier. Craig Kimbrel overcame a slight stumble early in the month and now has not allowed a hit or a run in five straight appearances. Over that time, he has 12 strikeouts against three walks in five innings. Crazlebeans. Now we dub the three-strikeout perfect inning the "Kimbrel" and move on to Joel Hanrahan, who has a Kimbrel of his own this year and has really cut down on the walks. He's lights-out and with every Neftali Feliz save, he's safer. It's less likely he'll be traded if he makes himself more expensive with his play.And, really, if we can have Brian Wilson in the elite tier with a 1.4ish WHIP, then we can put John Axford in this tier with a similar WHIP. He has 44 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings! Sure, he's walked a batter in about half of his appearances, but he's got the flame-thrower.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Mustard" Tier.)Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Comment:Mustard doesn't have as many varietals as cheese. It's spicy, so the heat/speed connection is there, but it's not as versatile, in a literary sense. Still, it works.We're not moving Francisco Rodriguez to the bottom of this tier because he blew a save by allowing a home run to a little-used backup in Atlanta. We're dropping him to the bottom of this tier because his team continues to languish and management continues to tell everyone that's he's available for a song and dance. Keep Jason Isringhausen close. On the other hand, Leo Nunez moves down primarily because of his recent performance. He's blown three of his last five chances and seems to blow up once a week on average. He's still got an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he's inconsistent and he makes his owners worry. Andrew Bailey is finally looking healthy and has pitched eight innings so far this year. He's no longer limited from back-to-backs even if Grant Balfour got a strange four-out, four-run save Tuesday night. Bailey also has seven strikeouts in those eight innings. Chris Perez has pitched 27 1/3 innings and has 18. Looking at Perez' 2.63 ERA, you might be forgiven for thinking of him as an elite closer. But it's just not right. He's like the Tim Hudson of relievers - everything looks good but there's a secret portion of the game that's just missing. Like eating a decent turkey swiss but someone forgot the mustard, know what I mean?
Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Bullet" Tier.)
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals
Comment:
"Bullet" is evocative. Straight fastballs certainly make one think of bullets. They can probably hurt as much as bullets when you get hit. But it's not very specific - couldn't a slider be a bullet? And also, the violence. The violence!One scoreless appearance is not enough to feel that comfortable about Sergio Santos, even if he did strike out two and didn't walk a batter. Two straight scoreless outings, with five strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings does work a little better. Neftali Feliz is also closer to moving up because he's been better in June. In seven outings this month, he has eight strikeouts… and only one walk. Even better, the velocity is back and those bullets are flying again. Joakim Soria has also re-found some of his missing velocity and is looking much better these days. He saved a game last week and now has seven strikeouts in his last six innings. He also only allowed five baserunners. He should continue to rise. Fernando Salas, though, deserves to sit on the precipice a while longer. He still has three strikeouts for every walk, but he also has been scored up on in five of his last ten outings, and three of his last five. He's given up a couple home runs in the past week alone. Really, you never know with Tony LaRussa, he might just create his next closer the same way he found Salas. Kyle Farnsworth has hit a similar rough patch, but he's allowed three runs in his last four appearances and it's probably just a bump in the road. He's actually been improving his strikeout rate in June (11 strikeouts in 10 innings). And he's only walked two ballers all year! He would move up if we just didn't have the rest of his career as an argument against.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Write (or read) enough about baseball and you've probably seen the word 'fastball' only about a billion times. It can get old.
And yet there are many different ways to name the old four-seamer. We should push ourselves and push our baseball thesaurus as far as it will go without breaking the binding. We can be less boring about it.
So as part of that effort, we'll name this week's tiers after synonyms for fastball. All rankings are subjective anyway, so it should come as no surprise that we'll be assigning my favorite words to the best closer tiers. Let's push our vocabularies!
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Cheese" Tier.)Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Cheese gets top billing because it begets so many more nicknames. Cheddar, Gouda and even Limburger can be used once the 'cheese' is induced. This even allows the writer to link varieties of cheddar to the player via ethnicity or name. Is there another synonym for the fastball that is as versatile?Is Brian Wilson's WHIP enough to push him out of this tier? After walking 15 batters combined in April and May, he's corralled his cheddar a little better in June. But, still, four walks in three-quarters of a month does not mean he's suddenly painting the corners. He does have awesome stuff, and that probably contributes to his control difficulties. But it also means that we have a top-tier closer with a WHIP over 1.40. And it's not like he owns a strikeout rate like Carlos Marmol. We'll see if he continues making progress or if he's just going to walk guys all year. It's a worthy thing to watch.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Heat" Tier.)Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
This is a fun word to use for fastballs because a) it's kind of a reference to a fun movie and b) I'm pretty sure that I would be able to actually, you know, feel the heat if a fastball blew by me. It's a very evocative nickname. J.J. Putz had a bad week. He's probably not feeling the heat, though. Yes, he blew a save (now three of his last five chances) and gave up three runs in his last two innings (four in his last four). But! He still hasn't walked a guy in June. Call it a slight luck regression that should stop soon if he's fully healthy. The next time someone tells you that elite closers are worth paying for, it might behoove you to point out that there are two cheap closers knocking on the door and demanding entry into the top tier. Craig Kimbrel overcame a slight stumble early in the month and now has not allowed a hit or a run in five straight appearances. Over that time, he has 12 strikeouts against three walks in five innings. Crazlebeans. Now we dub the three-strikeout perfect inning the "Kimbrel" and move on to Joel Hanrahan, who has a Kimbrel of his own this year and has really cut down on the walks. He's lights-out and with every Neftali Feliz save, he's safer. It's less likely he'll be traded if he makes himself more expensive with his play.And, really, if we can have Brian Wilson in the elite tier with a 1.4ish WHIP, then we can put John Axford in this tier with a similar WHIP. He has 44 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings! Sure, he's walked a batter in about half of his appearances, but he's got the flame-thrower.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Mustard" Tier.)Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Comment:Mustard doesn't have as many varietals as cheese. It's spicy, so the heat/speed connection is there, but it's not as versatile, in a literary sense. Still, it works.We're not moving Francisco Rodriguez to the bottom of this tier because he blew a save by allowing a home run to a little-used backup in Atlanta. We're dropping him to the bottom of this tier because his team continues to languish and management continues to tell everyone that's he's available for a song and dance. Keep Jason Isringhausen close. On the other hand, Leo Nunez moves down primarily because of his recent performance. He's blown three of his last five chances and seems to blow up once a week on average. He's still got an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he's inconsistent and he makes his owners worry. Andrew Bailey is finally looking healthy and has pitched eight innings so far this year. He's no longer limited from back-to-backs even if Grant Balfour got a strange four-out, four-run save Tuesday night. Bailey also has seven strikeouts in those eight innings. Chris Perez has pitched 27 1/3 innings and has 18. Looking at Perez' 2.63 ERA, you might be forgiven for thinking of him as an elite closer. But it's just not right. He's like the Tim Hudson of relievers - everything looks good but there's a secret portion of the game that's just missing. Like eating a decent turkey swiss but someone forgot the mustard, know what I mean?
Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Bullet" Tier.)
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals
Comment:
"Bullet" is evocative. Straight fastballs certainly make one think of bullets. They can probably hurt as much as bullets when you get hit. But it's not very specific - couldn't a slider be a bullet? And also, the violence. The violence!One scoreless appearance is not enough to feel that comfortable about Sergio Santos, even if he did strike out two and didn't walk a batter. Two straight scoreless outings, with five strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings does work a little better. Neftali Feliz is also closer to moving up because he's been better in June. In seven outings this month, he has eight strikeouts… and only one walk. Even better, the velocity is back and those bullets are flying again. Joakim Soria has also re-found some of his missing velocity and is looking much better these days. He saved a game last week and now has seven strikeouts in his last six innings. He also only allowed five baserunners. He should continue to rise. Fernando Salas, though, deserves to sit on the precipice a while longer. He still has three strikeouts for every walk, but he also has been scored up on in five of his last ten outings, and three of his last five. He's given up a couple home runs in the past week alone. Really, you never know with Tony LaRussa, he might just create his next closer the same way he found Salas. Kyle Farnsworth has hit a similar rough patch, but he's allowed three runs in his last four appearances and it's probably just a bump in the road. He's actually been improving his strikeout rate in June (11 strikeouts in 10 innings). And he's only walked two ballers all year! He would move up if we just didn't have the rest of his career as an argument against.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (5) (AKA: The "BB" Tier.)1st Chair:
Ryan Madson, 2nd Chair:
Jose Contreras, Philadelphia Phillies
1st Chair:
Kevin Gregg, 2nd Chair:
Koji Uehara, Baltimore Orioles
1st Chair:
Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair:
Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros
1st Chair:
Frank Francisco, 2nd Chair:
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair:
Javy Guerra, 2nd Chair:
Blake Hawksworth, Los Angeles Dodgers
Comment:I guess a slow fastball might be a BB, or a straight one. But if it had any more giddyap, it would be a bullet. And a BB looks like a walk. All so confusing.This tier is really shrinking as teams settle on closers. Even the situation in Philadelphia probably deserves to be in the tier above. The guy who couldn't close games now only has one blown save on the year and Brad Lidge is still a ways away. The possible sunset on his value is more worrisome than, say, Brandon League's, and that makes up the difference in tiers. David Aardsma has had two setbacks this year, and Brad Lidge is mostly moving along in his rehab with a slight bump or two in the road. You could also say that Kevin Gregg doesn't belong down here. He has an ERA in the threes and has only blown four saves. But he has 23 strikeouts against 19 walks and is a fly-ball pitcher in Camden Yards. The home runs could start flying at any moment, and if one of those walks is on the bases, the saves might as well fly with them. Koji Uehara is a better pitcher, and if Gregg strings together a few blown saves, things will change. The argument could even be made for Mark Melancon to move up. With Brandon Lyon most likely out for the year once he undergoes biceps tendon surgery, his role is relatively safe. Since becoming the closer in June, he has only had three save chances but has been successful in all three. He's also struck out ten against two walks in eight June appearances. That improvement in his strikeout ratio bodes well for him especially.Toronto is our first real pick'em situation. Jon Rauch might be the closer right now, but he hasn't completed a save since June seventh. He's also given up four runs in his last four outings. Frank Francisco still has the better BBs, meaning his fastball is faster and he also walks more batters. Well, he also has the last two saves. So he's probably the closer. Now that the home runs aren't flying out of the park every outing, he's been decent. In June, he has given up one earned run with six strikeouts against three walks. If you had to bet on one to keep the job all year, it's Frankie Frank.Los Angeles is even more of a mess. Javy Guerra got the last save - June 19th against Houston - but he's not the greatest pitcher. In six and a third June innings, he only has two strikeouts against two walks. He's probably a temporary solution, but with Vicente Padilla out for the year, Jonathan Broxton still rehabbing, and Hong-Chih Kuo dealing with a mystery confidence issue, who knows what 'temporary' means.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (elbow)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers (neck)
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins (elbow)
Comment:Not a ton of news here. The biggest, both literally and figuratively, might be that Jonathan Broxton is on his rehab assignment currently and could be on the major league roster by the weekend. Also of note is that Joe Nathan pitched a perfect inning and touched 93 MPH over the weekend. Both guys could be closing as soon as this weekend, with Broxton ahead by a nose, or a belly.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Brandon Lyon, Houston
We told you last week to expect Brandon Lyon on this list shortly, and now he's here. We could put him on the injured list, but he's headed for season-ending surgery and wasn't all that great to begin with. Ryan Franklin fixed a mechanical flaw last Friday or something. He's still not a great pitcher, and he wasn't even used during a nightmare nine-run eighth inning Tuesday night. Trever Miller, Jason Motte, Brian Tallet, Miguel Batista and Maikel Cleto were all used instead.* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentHe's hitting .252 with one home run and is known for his glove first, but Alcides Escobar is heating up. Over the last two weeks, he's got nearly a .500 batting average with five steals. It wouldn't be a stretch to say that he could easily hit .275 with twenty-plus more steals going forward. In mixed leagues, that's more of a Middle Infield type of play, but Ian Desmond and Erick Aybar owners might want to take notice that there's a guy that could spell their starting shortstop for a little while. Ryan Theriot owners? They could even make the switch straight up. A nice batting average is only worth so much if the guy isn't hitting home runs or stealing bags. Maybe we can drop the pre-amble when it comes to the deep league options. Often, we have to point out in this space that the player is flawed. For example, Chris Getz has no power at all. He might be lucky to hit one home run this year. And he doesn't *quite* play every day. And his combination of skills might not beget better than a .270 batting average going forward. But you know what, maybe we don't need all that. The fact of the matter is that, in deep leagues, all you really need to know is that he's a living, breathing major-league regular that has speed. That mediocre batting average, plus another 10-to-15 stolen bags, works in some leagues. And if you're in those leagues, you probably don't need the whole pre-amble about his flaws.