The Rise of the Kimbrel
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
It probably happens once a minute across the digital landscape. The jarring song shuffle. This morning, I ran with it. Went right from Weezer into Outkast and kept on rocking. Only took a quick musical shiver and was back to singing along to the classics.
I know, I know -- really keeping a stiff upper lip here. Managing to go on despite serious problems. Serious, easily solvable problems.
So let's name this week's closer tiers in honor of the jarring song shuffle! The more jarring the shuffle, the better the closer. And since I'm not on your computer right now (that would be weird), I'll use the songs from my playlist to populate these tiers.
Let's have some (discordant) fun.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Beastie Boys Sabotage into Iron and Wine Such Great Heights" Tier.)Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
This one comes from Steve Alexander over on the basketball side, but it's genius. You could actually use the Beastie Boys song as your pump-up music on the way out to bat against one of these closers, but it's probably Iron and Wine in your head as you drag your bat back to the dugout. See? That's the link between these two things. Let's revel in the brilliance that is Craig Kimbrel. Walks were supposedly the problem, but he has only five walks in thirteen June innings - against 23 strikeouts. That other-worldly strikeout rate has followed him up through the minor leagues and is built on an excellent swinging strike rate. He's the real deal and has two Kimbrels (three strikeouts, no baserunners, one inning) in the past two weeks. 96 MPH heat with an 87 MPH, hard-breaking slider is making a lot of batters rock themselves to sleep with Iron and Wine playing. Oh, and it's worth mentioning that old man Mariano Rivera struck out five in his last two innings and suddenly has a decent strikeout rate again. Not quite classic Mo, but he's not done yet.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Weezer My Name is Jonas into Outkast Wheelz of Steel" Tier.)
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Yes, this was the musical shuffle that inspired the column. Both great songs. Both completely different in terms of tempo, genre and feel. Kinda like going from Heath Bell's 94 MPH fastball to his 82 MPH curveball. See? Not so much of a stretch as it first appeared.Heath Bell is still a great closer. Heath Bell has walked one guy in two weeks. Heath Bell is also on a team that's floundering, doesn't have much money, and has turned out excellent relievers like a factory. They've even traded relievers recently. There's still a slight chance he signs a below-market deal to stay with the team, but if his agent is not saying the right things, the Padres won't hesitate to move him and insert Mike Adams into the role. That's a real risk for Bell owners. Enough to at least pick up Adams.Joel Hanrahan has one walk in his last eleven appearances (and nine strikeouts). He hasn't blown a save all year. If he had any more pedigree, he'd be in the elite tier. As is, he probably still deserves it. Really, you could almost say the same for John Axford. He's only walked three in his last ten (against 12 strikeouts) and has only blown two saves all year. Mustache power! J.J. Putz, on the other hand, has hit a little rough patch. Not enough to drop him a tier, but there's enough going on that he has to drop in the ranks. In his last ten appearances, he's given up seven runs and blown four games. In his last seven appearances, he has five strikeouts against three walks and has given up six runs. Eh, it's just a little bad stretch. David Hernandez would probably be next in line if there's an injury lurking.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Beenie Man Bad Man Nuh into Bon Iver Skinny Love" Tier.)Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Comment:This combination isn't quite as jarring musically, but the content separates them pretty well. From Beenie Man's bravado to Justin Vernon's nostalgia stands a chasm. And between the near-elites of tier two and the flawed closers of tier three stands a chasm. Still, these guys are useful. Andrew Bailey hasn't really stumbled since returning. He had a great save Tuesday night as he accomplished his first-ever Kimbrel. Usually, strikeouts haven't been a big part of his game. Then again, you could say the same about Drew Storen, and there are actually some similarities. They both have the repertoire of a starter - three-plus pitches. That gives them a step up even if the rates aren't quite elite in terms of strikeout rate.Joakim Soria is a bad man suddenly. Since being re-inserted into the closer role, he has 11 strikeouts and two walks in seven innings. That's the Soria of old, and even his velocity has returned. That's also boss, and hopefully you didn't drop him when he was struggling. Of course, the team still has a viable replacement in Aaron Crow, so if someone is interested in Soria, he could still get traded. But for now, he deserves this ranking.
Oh what a week. Jordan Walden has now blown three save chances in a row. He has two walks and no strikeouts over those chances too. The control is always an issue, but with gas like he's got, he should be fine. We'll see how much leash he's earned, but mosey on over to Scott Downs' numbers and you might want to find a way to get Downs on your team as a handcuff.Here's some love for Chris Perez: He has eight strikeouts and two walks in his last ten appearances (nine innings). If he can keep up those kinds of ratios, he'll be solid all year.
Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Wale Strings into Cut Copy Lights and Music" Tier.)Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Comment:In some strange world, this transition makes sense. Perhaps that strange world is the one between my ears. Even the hardest core of Cut Copy fans would have to admit how not hard core their music is, though. Good thing Wale is really just about the good times, too.If we're going to move Heath Bell down a tier, then Francisco Rodriguez deserves to be demoted a little bit as well. Depending on the circumstances of the team after a probable Rodriguez trade, the new closer will likely be Jason Isringhausen or Bobby Parnell. The knock on Parnell so far has been that he's got gas but no control, but the youngster has managed 14 strikeouts against three walks in his last ten outings (and 13 hits). Despite his hittability, Parnell is the only young reliever worth developing in the closer role. If the team continues to try and compete, Terry Collins will go with the reliable veteran with closing experience - Jason Isringhausen. Most likely it's Izzy with Parnell moving into higher-leverage setup innings. Sergio Santos could be ready to make the leap in tiers. He had a poor stretch at the beginning of the season but now has struck out ten batters in his last five appearances - against zero walks. If he's going to make progress with his walks, he's going to be a nasty nasty closer. There's little reason to worry about him at this point.Neftali Feliz was on a path to redemption, but maybe he turned on the lights and music a little early. He still has ten strikeouts in his last ten appearances, and only one walk, but he also blew a save spectacularly in Houston last week. And his team is deflecting rumors about their interest in Francisco Rodriguez. There is reason to worry about Feliz, but unfortunately for his owners, his handcuff is probably a closer for another team right now. Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
It probably happens once a minute across the digital landscape. The jarring song shuffle. This morning, I ran with it. Went right from Weezer into Outkast and kept on rocking. Only took a quick musical shiver and was back to singing along to the classics.
I know, I know -- really keeping a stiff upper lip here. Managing to go on despite serious problems. Serious, easily solvable problems.
So let's name this week's closer tiers in honor of the jarring song shuffle! The more jarring the shuffle, the better the closer. And since I'm not on your computer right now (that would be weird), I'll use the songs from my playlist to populate these tiers.
Let's have some (discordant) fun.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Beastie Boys Sabotage into Iron and Wine Such Great Heights" Tier.)Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
This one comes from Steve Alexander over on the basketball side, but it's genius. You could actually use the Beastie Boys song as your pump-up music on the way out to bat against one of these closers, but it's probably Iron and Wine in your head as you drag your bat back to the dugout. See? That's the link between these two things. Let's revel in the brilliance that is Craig Kimbrel. Walks were supposedly the problem, but he has only five walks in thirteen June innings - against 23 strikeouts. That other-worldly strikeout rate has followed him up through the minor leagues and is built on an excellent swinging strike rate. He's the real deal and has two Kimbrels (three strikeouts, no baserunners, one inning) in the past two weeks. 96 MPH heat with an 87 MPH, hard-breaking slider is making a lot of batters rock themselves to sleep with Iron and Wine playing. Oh, and it's worth mentioning that old man Mariano Rivera struck out five in his last two innings and suddenly has a decent strikeout rate again. Not quite classic Mo, but he's not done yet.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Weezer My Name is Jonas into Outkast Wheelz of Steel" Tier.)Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Yes, this was the musical shuffle that inspired the column. Both great songs. Both completely different in terms of tempo, genre and feel. Kinda like going from Heath Bell's 94 MPH fastball to his 82 MPH curveball. See? Not so much of a stretch as it first appeared.Heath Bell is still a great closer. Heath Bell has walked one guy in two weeks. Heath Bell is also on a team that's floundering, doesn't have much money, and has turned out excellent relievers like a factory. They've even traded relievers recently. There's still a slight chance he signs a below-market deal to stay with the team, but if his agent is not saying the right things, the Padres won't hesitate to move him and insert Mike Adams into the role. That's a real risk for Bell owners. Enough to at least pick up Adams.Joel Hanrahan has one walk in his last eleven appearances (and nine strikeouts). He hasn't blown a save all year. If he had any more pedigree, he'd be in the elite tier. As is, he probably still deserves it. Really, you could almost say the same for John Axford. He's only walked three in his last ten (against 12 strikeouts) and has only blown two saves all year. Mustache power! J.J. Putz, on the other hand, has hit a little rough patch. Not enough to drop him a tier, but there's enough going on that he has to drop in the ranks. In his last ten appearances, he's given up seven runs and blown four games. In his last seven appearances, he has five strikeouts against three walks and has given up six runs. Eh, it's just a little bad stretch. David Hernandez would probably be next in line if there's an injury lurking.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Beenie Man Bad Man Nuh into Bon Iver Skinny Love" Tier.)Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Comment:This combination isn't quite as jarring musically, but the content separates them pretty well. From Beenie Man's bravado to Justin Vernon's nostalgia stands a chasm. And between the near-elites of tier two and the flawed closers of tier three stands a chasm. Still, these guys are useful. Andrew Bailey hasn't really stumbled since returning. He had a great save Tuesday night as he accomplished his first-ever Kimbrel. Usually, strikeouts haven't been a big part of his game. Then again, you could say the same about Drew Storen, and there are actually some similarities. They both have the repertoire of a starter - three-plus pitches. That gives them a step up even if the rates aren't quite elite in terms of strikeout rate.Joakim Soria is a bad man suddenly. Since being re-inserted into the closer role, he has 11 strikeouts and two walks in seven innings. That's the Soria of old, and even his velocity has returned. That's also boss, and hopefully you didn't drop him when he was struggling. Of course, the team still has a viable replacement in Aaron Crow, so if someone is interested in Soria, he could still get traded. But for now, he deserves this ranking.
Oh what a week. Jordan Walden has now blown three save chances in a row. He has two walks and no strikeouts over those chances too. The control is always an issue, but with gas like he's got, he should be fine. We'll see how much leash he's earned, but mosey on over to Scott Downs' numbers and you might want to find a way to get Downs on your team as a handcuff.Here's some love for Chris Perez: He has eight strikeouts and two walks in his last ten appearances (nine innings). If he can keep up those kinds of ratios, he'll be solid all year.
Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Wale Strings into Cut Copy Lights and Music" Tier.)Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Comment:In some strange world, this transition makes sense. Perhaps that strange world is the one between my ears. Even the hardest core of Cut Copy fans would have to admit how not hard core their music is, though. Good thing Wale is really just about the good times, too.If we're going to move Heath Bell down a tier, then Francisco Rodriguez deserves to be demoted a little bit as well. Depending on the circumstances of the team after a probable Rodriguez trade, the new closer will likely be Jason Isringhausen or Bobby Parnell. The knock on Parnell so far has been that he's got gas but no control, but the youngster has managed 14 strikeouts against three walks in his last ten outings (and 13 hits). Despite his hittability, Parnell is the only young reliever worth developing in the closer role. If the team continues to try and compete, Terry Collins will go with the reliable veteran with closing experience - Jason Isringhausen. Most likely it's Izzy with Parnell moving into higher-leverage setup innings. Sergio Santos could be ready to make the leap in tiers. He had a poor stretch at the beginning of the season but now has struck out ten batters in his last five appearances - against zero walks. If he's going to make progress with his walks, he's going to be a nasty nasty closer. There's little reason to worry about him at this point.Neftali Feliz was on a path to redemption, but maybe he turned on the lights and music a little early. He still has ten strikeouts in his last ten appearances, and only one walk, but he also blew a save spectacularly in Houston last week. And his team is deflecting rumors about their interest in Francisco Rodriguez. There is reason to worry about Feliz, but unfortunately for his owners, his handcuff is probably a closer for another team right now. Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (5) (AKA: The "The Meters Fire on the Bayou into Pinback Good to Sea" Tier.)1st Chair:
Kevin Gregg, 2nd Chair:
Koji Uehara, Baltimore Orioles
1st Chair:
Frank Francisco, 2nd Chair:
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair:
Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair:
Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros
1st Chair:
Fernando Salas, 2nd Chair:
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
1st Chair:
Antonio Bastardo, 2nd Chair:
, Philadelphia Phillies
1st Chair: Javy Guerra, 2nd Chair:
Blake Hawksworth, Los Angeles Dodgers
Comment:This is one of those shuffles that might make you think for a second. Funk is not supposed to mesh seamlessly with alternative rock. But, there's something there. It's not a terrible juxtaposition. Like some of these closer battles, it's a pick 'em. The first three closer situations in this tier are significantly more settled than the rest. As bad as Kevin Gregg has been at times, his control has gotten much bettering June (one walk all month), and even his 'bad' games have been okay (three one-run innings this month). Frank Francisco has overcome his home run issues and hasn't given up a donger this month either. He's the closer until gopheritis returns. And Mark Melancon has upped his strikeout rate recently and has been pretty solid as the Astros closer. Then he gave up five runs against Tampa and besmirched his record to date. Still, there's not much else in that pen and he's got a little more leash. Fernando Salas didn't last long in the fourth tier. Even though his overall rates and ratios look okay, he's hit enough of a bad stretch that his owners should be worried. He's allowed seven runs in his last ten outings. He has no strikeouts in his last three. He's given up home runs in three of his last five appearances. He's lost or blown the save in four of those games. He was also used for one out in a blowout… before Jason Motte pitched the ninth. He could still be the guy, but Motte is suddenly interesting again.Ryan Madson was placed on the disabled list with a bruised hand, but the team did so retroactively, so he will be eligible to return as soon as the weekend of July 4th. Then again, he's feeling numbness in his hand, and Brad Lidge is still out another couple of weeks. Jose Contreras is not even throwing for two more weeks. And the Phillies are rumored to interested in trading for relief help. This is why we didn't move Madson up in the rankings despite his excellent work so far. There's risk here.Last in the closing tiers, and featuring an owner that is last in our hearts, the Dodgers situation almost feels uninteresting at this point. They had two saves as a team in the all of June! So, yeah, Javy Guerra is probably the guy still despite his wonky control and iffy stuff. Jonathan Broxton was supposed to be back soon to be the closer, and now he's not. Kenley Jansen could be closing by the end of the year if he shows better control and Broxton ends up out for the rest of the year. This may not even be worth the trouble.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners (elbow)
Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies (shoulder)
Ryan Madson, Philadephia Phillies (hand)
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers (neck)
Comment:Brad Lidge threw a successful bullpen! After a cortisone injection, he seems ready to go out on rehab this week. He could be back before the All-Star break even. It's worth checking your waiver wires for him at least, especially with Madson out with a phantom hand injury. Jonathan Broxton was picked back up in many leagues when his manager said he'd return as the closer, and then dropped again when they had to go find the extra large MRI machine again. Now he's going to be shut down for three weeks before doing anything.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Brandon Lyon, Houston
Matt Thornton, Chicago A.L.
Is Fernando Salas on the way? Should Jon Rauch qualify for this list? Which current White Sox reliever should be on here? Deep questions.* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentAngel Pagan is owned in less than half of the leagues on most platforms. How does this make any sense? Sure his batting average doesn't look good, but he's hitting about .270 on balls in play (BABIP). Give him a .300 BABIP, and he'd have close to a .270 batting average. But Pagan has also hit more ground balls in the past, and he's a speedy guy. If he hits a few more on the ground and beats out a few more throws, he could easily expect a BABIP above .300. So now we're talking about a playable batting average. We know he has wheels - he stole 37 bags last year, after all. He doesn't have great power, but league-average power, with wheels, and a playable batting average -- that's useful. Look bast the current batting average, do a ritual, and go Pagan for speed. Desmond Jennings is owned in 10% of leagues, so he's gone in your deepest of leagues. But if you're in a league that's any deeper than your standard 12-teamer, and he's out there, it's time for the good old speculative play. Sure, he's in the minor leagues. But he's also putting up an excellent .280/.373/.459 line in Triple-A (with 15 stolen bases and one caught stealing), and at 24, he's as polished as he'll ever be. He's faced enough inferior competition. And speaking of inferior competition, Sam Fuld and Justin Ruggiano have helped Tampa Bay left fielders put up an underwhelming .271/.331/.412 line so far this year. That team could use an offensive boost, too, by moving parts around on the diamond. Jennings is past the super-Two threshold, so there would be no arbitration-related issues for keeping him in the minor leagues. He has some power and a lot of speed, and if he is as polished as he seems to be -- he's played over 200 games at Triple-A -- he could even outproduce Angel Pagan. Possibly.