Nathan's Famous
Thursday, July 07, 2011
We're almost at the All-Star break, so I figured this was a good time to quickly go over some first-half superlatives. Specifically, I'm looking at surprises and busts.
Biggest fantasy surprise:Lance Berkman 1B/OF, Cardinals - Could it really be anyone else? I criticized this signing over the winter, mostly because I couldn't see him staying healthy while playing the outfield, but he currently leads the National League in home runs (23), ranks fourth in RBI (62), first in slugging percentage (.607) and first in OPS (1.011). For someone who was generally drafted in the later rounds in mixed leagues, he has delivered first-round numbers.
Alexi Ogando SP/RP, Rangers - I was tempted to go with
James Shields here, but his success doesn't really qualify as a surprise, as he was seen as one of the better bounceback candidates around. Ogando, on the other hand, was barely even mentioned when
Neftali Feliz was being auditioned as a starter during spring training. Here he is with nine wins, a 2.92 ERA and a 78/23 K/BB ratio over 104 2/3 innings. I worry about whether he'll be able to maintain his success moving forward, since he's headed into unchartered territory, but he edges out Phil Humber and
Ryan Vogelsong as the most surprising fantasy hurler of the first half.
Biggest fantasy bust:Adam Dunn 1B, White Sox - If you picked up our annual Rotoworld Draft Guide at your local bookstore, you'll see that one of my "bold predictions" was that Dunn would hit 50 home runs for the first time in his career. Let's just say he'll probably fall a bit short of that mark. Dunn has been a disaster with the White Sox thus far, batting just .166 with eight homers over his first 301 plate appearances. Even more disturbing, he's just 2-for-57 (.035) with 27 strikeouts against left-handed pitching this season. I'm expecting better things moving forward (and who wouldn't?), but boy, what an awful first half.
Ubaldo Jimenez SP, Rockies - Jimenez was somebody I avoided coming into the season, simply because I thought he was overvalued based on his 2010 numbers. While he's been a bit better lately, posting a 2.76 ERA over his last seven starts, he hasn't even been the best pitcher on his own staff during the first half of the season. I came close to picking
Max Scherzer here, but he wasn't drafted nearly as high as Jimenez and his secondary numbers are still pretty strong. And no, I'm not going with
Zack Greinke. Despite his 5.66 ERA, he has seven wins and an 89/14 K/BB ratio over 68 1/3 innings! If you can buy low, please do it.
And with that out of the way, here are my recommendations for the week.
MIXED LEAGUES
David Hernandez RP, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 33.6 percent)
If there's one thing we know about Kevin Towers, it's that he's adept at building a bullpen. Hernandez, who was acquired from the Orioles in the Mark Reynolds deal, has thrived in his first full season as a reliever, posting a 3.43 ERA and 45/22 K/BB ratio over 39 1/3 innings. The 26-year-old right-hander has went a perfect 3-for-3 in save opportunities since J.J. Putz hit the disabled list with right elbow tendinitis. Putz is on track to return shortly after the All-Star break, but Hernandez is a must-own until he does.
R.A. Dickey SP, Mets (Yahoo: 15 percent owned, ESPN: 4.6 percent)
Granted, Dickey left Sunday's start against the Yankees after five innings with a strained glute (I hear you snickering), but did you know that he has a 2.40 ERA with a 46/17 K/BB ratio over his last nine starts? It's true. Entering play Wednesday, only 15 starting pitchers (with at least 40 innings pitched) had an ERA lower during the same timespan. His backside isn't 100 percent quite yet -- the All-Star break should help on that end -- but I'd give the knuckleballer a whirl against the Giants on Friday night.
Joe Nathan RP, Twins (Yahoo: 37 percent owned, ESPN: 38.7 percent)
It's very rare that I recommend someone in back-to-back weeks, but I feel I have no other choice after the events of the past week. Matt Capps has been pulled from each of his last two save opportunities and Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said that Nathan would have been used in a save situation Wednesday. Now, this doesn't mean that Capps is done is closer, nor does it mean that Nathan has his old gig back, but it sure seems like that's where this is headed. For what it's worth, Nathan has delivered five straight scoreless appearances and has shown an uptick in velocity since returning from the DL. He's a must-own if you're speculating for save opportunities.
Travis Snider OF, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 20 percent owned, ESPN: 18.8 percent)
What can I say? I'm just not ready to give up on this guy. Snider was demoted at the end of April after batting just .184 over his first 99 plate appearances, but he's 5-for-13 (.385) with four doubles since replacing Juan Rivera on the active roster Monday. Still just 23 years old, he should see the majority of the playing time in right field now that Jose Bautista is back at third base. Snider hasn't hit many home runs this season (just three in 301 at-bats between the majors and minors) but he's a worthy gamble in deeper formats, particularly in leagues with five outfielder slots.
John Danks SP, White Sox (Yahoo: 47 percent owned, ESPN: 35.2 percent)
Here's one to stash away with the second half in mind. Danks began the year with a miserable 0-8 record to go along with a 5.25 ERA over his first 11 starts, but he posted a 1.14 ERA and 19/3 K/BB ratio over 23 2/3 innings before going down with an oblique injury on June 25. He tentatively lines up to return from the disabled list on July 20, so you'll have to be patient here, but I'm expecting him to pick up from where he left off.
Aaron Harang SP, Padres (Yahoo: 27 percent owned, ESPN: 11.3 percent)
Don't ignore the "Harangatang." It only makes him angry. We haven't seen the 6-foot-7 right-hander in nearly a month due to a right foot contusion, but remember that he allowed two runs or less in five consecutive starts before hitting the disabled list. The Padres haven't made a decision about whether Harang will replace the injured Clayton Richard on Saturday against the Dodgers, but he's a fine investment for the second half either way.
Homer Bailey SP, Reds (Yahoo: 20 percent owned, ESPN: 9.8 percent)
Bailey was understandably shaky in his return from the disabled list, but he got right back on track last Saturday against the Indians. While he took the loss, he allowed just a three-run homer to Michael Brantley while striking out seven and walking just one. The 25-year-old right-hander was relevant in mixed leagues before going down with a shoulder sprain in late-May, so I'm ready to get back on board.
Mark Ellis 2B, Rockies (Yahoo: 8 percent owned, ESPN: 10.3 percent)
Can you say post-trade boost? Ellis has been ridiculous since being acquired by the Rockies last week, notching multi-hit games in four of his first six in his new digs. The 34-year-old was batting just .217/.253/.290 prior to the trade, so let's not get too carried away here, but he should get the majority of playing time at second base moving forward. He figures to return to the No. 2 spot once Troy Tulowitzki gets back from a quad injury, which sets him up to score plenty of runs in this lineup. I'd pick him up in deeper mixed formats, especially if you're looking to fill a MI (middle infielder) spot.
Denard Span OF, Twins (Yahoo: 37 percent owned, ESPN: 40 percent)
Here's another prominent injury stash situation. Span was able to take batting practice outdoors Tuesday for the first time since being placed on the disabled list with a concussion in early June. While there are no immediate plans to send him out on a minor league rehab assignment, it wouldn't be surprising if he begins playing in games following the All-Star break. The 27-year-old is always a threat for stolen bases and runs scored when he's at the top of the Twins' lineup, so he could be a real bargain if he comes back healthy for the second half.
Danny Valencia 3B, Twins (Yahoo: 15 percent owned, ESPN: 17.2 percent)
Another Twins' bat? I must be losing my mind. To be fair, Valencia is batting .383 (18-for-47) with three homers and 12 RBI over his last 11 games and has hit safely in each of his last six. The 26-year-old encountered some bad luck in April and May, but it seems like everything he hits is finding a hole right now. It doesn't take much to be relevant at the third base position this season, so go with the hot hand if you're hurting for options.
Shopping at the five-and-dime:
(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)
Rubby De La Rosa SP/RP, Dodgers (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 1 percent)
De La Rosa has begun to show some of his considerable upside over his past two starts. While the 22-year-old right-hander was eventually saddled with the loss Tuesday night, he held the Mets hitless over the first five innings. His command can be an issue at times, but the hard-throwing youngster has notched 36 strikeouts over his first 39 2/3 major-league innings. He's worth considering with a favorable matchup against the light-hitting Padres on Saturday.
We're almost at the All-Star break, so I figured this was a good time to quickly go over some first-half superlatives. Specifically, I'm looking at surprises and busts.
Biggest fantasy surprise:Lance Berkman 1B/OF, Cardinals - Could it really be anyone else? I criticized this signing over the winter, mostly because I couldn't see him staying healthy while playing the outfield, but he currently leads the National League in home runs (23), ranks fourth in RBI (62), first in slugging percentage (.607) and first in OPS (1.011). For someone who was generally drafted in the later rounds in mixed leagues, he has delivered first-round numbers.
Alexi Ogando SP/RP, Rangers - I was tempted to go with
James Shields here, but his success doesn't really qualify as a surprise, as he was seen as one of the better bounceback candidates around. Ogando, on the other hand, was barely even mentioned when
Neftali Feliz was being auditioned as a starter during spring training. Here he is with nine wins, a 2.92 ERA and a 78/23 K/BB ratio over 104 2/3 innings. I worry about whether he'll be able to maintain his success moving forward, since he's headed into unchartered territory, but he edges out Phil Humber and
Ryan Vogelsong as the most surprising fantasy hurler of the first half.
Biggest fantasy bust:Adam Dunn 1B, White Sox - If you picked up our annual Rotoworld Draft Guide at your local bookstore, you'll see that one of my "bold predictions" was that Dunn would hit 50 home runs for the first time in his career. Let's just say he'll probably fall a bit short of that mark. Dunn has been a disaster with the White Sox thus far, batting just .166 with eight homers over his first 301 plate appearances. Even more disturbing, he's just 2-for-57 (.035) with 27 strikeouts against left-handed pitching this season. I'm expecting better things moving forward (and who wouldn't?), but boy, what an awful first half.
Ubaldo Jimenez SP, Rockies - Jimenez was somebody I avoided coming into the season, simply because I thought he was overvalued based on his 2010 numbers. While he's been a bit better lately, posting a 2.76 ERA over his last seven starts, he hasn't even been the best pitcher on his own staff during the first half of the season. I came close to picking
Max Scherzer here, but he wasn't drafted nearly as high as Jimenez and his secondary numbers are still pretty strong. And no, I'm not going with
Zack Greinke. Despite his 5.66 ERA, he has seven wins and an 89/14 K/BB ratio over 68 1/3 innings! If you can buy low, please do it.
And with that out of the way, here are my recommendations for the week.
MIXED LEAGUES
David Hernandez RP, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 33.6 percent)
If there's one thing we know about Kevin Towers, it's that he's adept at building a bullpen. Hernandez, who was acquired from the Orioles in the Mark Reynolds deal, has thrived in his first full season as a reliever, posting a 3.43 ERA and 45/22 K/BB ratio over 39 1/3 innings. The 26-year-old right-hander has went a perfect 3-for-3 in save opportunities since J.J. Putz hit the disabled list with right elbow tendinitis. Putz is on track to return shortly after the All-Star break, but Hernandez is a must-own until he does.
R.A. Dickey SP, Mets (Yahoo: 15 percent owned, ESPN: 4.6 percent)
Granted, Dickey left Sunday's start against the Yankees after five innings with a strained glute (I hear you snickering), but did you know that he has a 2.40 ERA with a 46/17 K/BB ratio over his last nine starts? It's true. Entering play Wednesday, only 15 starting pitchers (with at least 40 innings pitched) had an ERA lower during the same timespan. His backside isn't 100 percent quite yet -- the All-Star break should help on that end -- but I'd give the knuckleballer a whirl against the Giants on Friday night.
Joe Nathan RP, Twins (Yahoo: 37 percent owned, ESPN: 38.7 percent)
It's very rare that I recommend someone in back-to-back weeks, but I feel I have no other choice after the events of the past week. Matt Capps has been pulled from each of his last two save opportunities and Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said that Nathan would have been used in a save situation Wednesday. Now, this doesn't mean that Capps is done is closer, nor does it mean that Nathan has his old gig back, but it sure seems like that's where this is headed. For what it's worth, Nathan has delivered five straight scoreless appearances and has shown an uptick in velocity since returning from the DL. He's a must-own if you're speculating for save opportunities.
Travis Snider OF, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 20 percent owned, ESPN: 18.8 percent)
What can I say? I'm just not ready to give up on this guy. Snider was demoted at the end of April after batting just .184 over his first 99 plate appearances, but he's 5-for-13 (.385) with four doubles since replacing Juan Rivera on the active roster Monday. Still just 23 years old, he should see the majority of the playing time in right field now that Jose Bautista is back at third base. Snider hasn't hit many home runs this season (just three in 301 at-bats between the majors and minors) but he's a worthy gamble in deeper formats, particularly in leagues with five outfielder slots.
John Danks SP, White Sox (Yahoo: 47 percent owned, ESPN: 35.2 percent)
Here's one to stash away with the second half in mind. Danks began the year with a miserable 0-8 record to go along with a 5.25 ERA over his first 11 starts, but he posted a 1.14 ERA and 19/3 K/BB ratio over 23 2/3 innings before going down with an oblique injury on June 25. He tentatively lines up to return from the disabled list on July 20, so you'll have to be patient here, but I'm expecting him to pick up from where he left off.
Aaron Harang SP, Padres (Yahoo: 27 percent owned, ESPN: 11.3 percent)
Don't ignore the "Harangatang." It only makes him angry. We haven't seen the 6-foot-7 right-hander in nearly a month due to a right foot contusion, but remember that he allowed two runs or less in five consecutive starts before hitting the disabled list. The Padres haven't made a decision about whether Harang will replace the injured Clayton Richard on Saturday against the Dodgers, but he's a fine investment for the second half either way.
Homer Bailey SP, Reds (Yahoo: 20 percent owned, ESPN: 9.8 percent)
Bailey was understandably shaky in his return from the disabled list, but he got right back on track last Saturday against the Indians. While he took the loss, he allowed just a three-run homer to Michael Brantley while striking out seven and walking just one. The 25-year-old right-hander was relevant in mixed leagues before going down with a shoulder sprain in late-May, so I'm ready to get back on board.
Mark Ellis 2B, Rockies (Yahoo: 8 percent owned, ESPN: 10.3 percent)
Can you say post-trade boost? Ellis has been ridiculous since being acquired by the Rockies last week, notching multi-hit games in four of his first six in his new digs. The 34-year-old was batting just .217/.253/.290 prior to the trade, so let's not get too carried away here, but he should get the majority of playing time at second base moving forward. He figures to return to the No. 2 spot once Troy Tulowitzki gets back from a quad injury, which sets him up to score plenty of runs in this lineup. I'd pick him up in deeper mixed formats, especially if you're looking to fill a MI (middle infielder) spot.
Denard Span OF, Twins (Yahoo: 37 percent owned, ESPN: 40 percent)
Here's another prominent injury stash situation. Span was able to take batting practice outdoors Tuesday for the first time since being placed on the disabled list with a concussion in early June. While there are no immediate plans to send him out on a minor league rehab assignment, it wouldn't be surprising if he begins playing in games following the All-Star break. The 27-year-old is always a threat for stolen bases and runs scored when he's at the top of the Twins' lineup, so he could be a real bargain if he comes back healthy for the second half.
Danny Valencia 3B, Twins (Yahoo: 15 percent owned, ESPN: 17.2 percent)
Another Twins' bat? I must be losing my mind. To be fair, Valencia is batting .383 (18-for-47) with three homers and 12 RBI over his last 11 games and has hit safely in each of his last six. The 26-year-old encountered some bad luck in April and May, but it seems like everything he hits is finding a hole right now. It doesn't take much to be relevant at the third base position this season, so go with the hot hand if you're hurting for options.
Shopping at the five-and-dime:
(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)
Rubby De La Rosa SP/RP, Dodgers (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 1 percent)
De La Rosa has begun to show some of his considerable upside over his past two starts. While the 22-year-old right-hander was eventually saddled with the loss Tuesday night, he held the Mets hitless over the first five innings. His command can be an issue at times, but the hard-throwing youngster has notched 36 strikeouts over his first 39 2/3 major-league innings. He's worth considering with a favorable matchup against the light-hitting Padres on Saturday.
AL ONLY:
Nolan Reimold OF, Orioles (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, 0 percent owned)
The Orioles placed Scott on the disabled list this week with a right shoulder strain. He's scheduled to undergo an MRA on Friday and depending upon the results, he could be headed for season-ending surgery. While surgery would be unfortunate, it would create an opportunity for Reimold, who is hitting .271/.362/.492 with four homers and 12 RBI over 69 plate appearances at the major league level this season. Felix Pie would also get his share of playing time, but remember that it wasn't too long ago that Reimold was considered a sleeper in deeper mixed formats. Why not give him a second chance?
Glen Perkins RP, Twins (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, 2.7 percent)
I recommended Joe Nathan above, but Perkins should be owned in deeper mixed and AL-only leagues. The 28-year-old southpaw bailed out Capps in back-to-back save chances this week and has a surprising 1.78 ERA and 32/11 K/BB ratio over 30 1/3 innings this season. I still favor Nathan for the gig if Twins manager Ron Gardenhire decides to make a change, simply because he's done it before, but Perkins could get a look in certain matchups.
Kyle Seager 3B, Mariners (Yahoo: N/A, ESPN: 0 percent)
The Mariners called Seager up from the minors on Wednesday and plan to give him regular time at third base for the time being. The 2009 third-round pick was hitting .455/.500/.673 over his first 60 plate appearances with Triple-A Tacoma. This, after batting .312/.381/.459 over 66 games with Double-A Jackson. The 23-year-old doesn't project to hit for much power, but has good patience and should be able to maintain a solid batting average with his line drive swing. At this point, anything that takes playing time away from Chone Figgins is a very good thing.
Trevor Plouffe SS, Twins (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
As the Twins search for some production at first base with Justin Morneau on the mend from neck surgery, Ron Gardenhire said Wednesday that he asked for Plouffe to get some at the position with Triple-A Rochester. It makes plenty of sense in the short-term, as the 2004 first-round pick is hitting .306 with 15 homers, 33 RBI and a 1.035 OPS over 46 games at the minor league level this season. Of course, this is well above his .257/.320/.406 career batting line, so temper your expectations a bit, but the Twins could use all the help they can get offensively. I'd safely tuck him away if you have the room.
NL ONLY:
Zack Cozart SS, Reds (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
I'm officially on Cozart watch. Why? Well, because Reds' shortstops have combined for a pathetic .545 OPS this season, the lowest in the majors. It's possible they could swing a trade, but with no good or realistic (Jose Reyes) targets out there, they may have to look internally for an upgrade. Cozart, 25, is hitting .310/.357/.467 with seven homers, 32 RBI and nine stolen bases over 77 games with Triple-A Louisville this season. With Paul Janish and Edgar Renteria flailing away offensively, that's good enough to stash him and root for a call up.
Clay Hensley RP, Marlins (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, 0.1 percent)
Interesting turn of events this week, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald noted that the Marlins are increasing Hensley's pitch count during his rehab outings, potentially to slot him into the starting rotation once he returns from the disabled list. Hensley, 31, hasn't started regularly since he went 11-12 with a 3.71 ERA with the Padres back in 2006. Obviously his ERA was helped by pitching in PETCO Park, but his groundball tendencies gives him a chance to be successful. If he can stay healthy, that is.
Bobby Parnell RP, Mets (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
Adam Rubin of ESPN New York speculated earlier this week that Parnell will serve as closer if Francisco Rodriguez is traded. And based off what we've seen lately, it's easy to understand why. The hard-throwing right-hander hasn't allowed an earned run in seven out of his last eight appearances, lowering his ERA to 2.66 for the year. He has also piled up 29 strikeouts over 23 2/3 innings. The Mets are competitive right now, which makes things tricky, but he's the one you want if you're in the mood to speculate.
Mike Cameron OF, Marlins (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
The Marlins acquired Cameron from the Red Sox this week for a player to be named later or cash. The 38-year-old outfielder was designated for assignment by Boston last week after hitting just .149/.212/.266 over 105 plate appearances. I'm not expecting him to find the fountain of youth in Florida, but he should be the primary center fielder, at least until Chris Coghlan returns from the minor leagues. Remember, Cameron hit 24 homers with the Brewers just two seasons ago. He could surprise with regular playing time.
