Texas Three Step?
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Now that the dust has cleared, it's time to look at the post-deadline closer landscape. Well… would you look at that. It's pretty much the same as the pre-deadline landscape. Huh.
That isn't to say that there wasn't much activity at this deadline. No, plenty of players passed hands, and the balance in baseball certainly was changed. In order to follow up on last week's top five deals of all time from the buyers' perspective, we'll name this week's tiers after the top five buyers' deals from this trade deadline.
But the bullpens? Only one bullpen really changed. We'll make sure you're covered on all of them anyway.
Tier 1: Elite (3) (AKA: The "Michael Bourn for Jordan Schafer, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens and Juan Abreu." Tier.)Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Highway robbery. The Braves got exactly what they needed for the next season and a half -- a good defensive center fielder that can impact the game offensively by getting on base and scampering -- and they didn't give up any of their top five prospects. Maybe one of these pitchers turns in to a decent mid-rotation starter. Maybe.Jonathan Papelbon moves to the top of the list. You know why? He's given up four baserunners in the last ten innings. Four. That's one walk! Against thirteen strikeouts. Of course, he just had his first 'Kimbrel' of the year -- three strikeouts and no hits, walks or runs -- while Kimbrel has four of those. But Papelbon's 61/8 K/BB ratio is slightly more impressive than Kimbrel's 84/21 because of the excellent control. Both are great.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Rafael Furcal for Alex Castellanos" Tier.)John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Maybe this trade doesn't seem like a big deal, but there's little risk for the Cardinals, and yet they received a player that has the potential their worst position both defensively and offensively. Furcal pushes Ryan Theriot to second, where his glove plays much better, and if he finds some rejuvenation in his current healthy moment, he could really help that team. John Axford hasn't blown a save since April 18th! He's the closer in Milwaukee and Francisco Rodriguez won't do anything but save a game or two when Axford needs a blow. Joakim Soria did blow his first save since regaining his job, but he still has a 10/2 K/BB ratio over his last ten innings. Compare that to Brian Wilson, who has a 7/5 K/BB ratio over his last ten outings. And also blew two games in that stretch. Moving past the wonkier closers in this tier are Andrew Bailey and Heath Bell. Both guys survived the trade deadline on their original teams and otherwise own lines that are virtually unassailable. Bailey has four strikeouts to ever walk and has improved his strikeout rate this year as well. He's safe, pitches in a nice home park, and plays for a team that will have their share of close games even if they aren't the best team in their division. Bell's peripherals are not quite as nice. He only has two-plus strikeouts per walk and his strikeout rate has dropped this year. Still, over his last ten outings he has only given up ten baserunners and has seven strikeouts. He's not quite the dominant guy he was in the past, but he deserves his ranking now that the trade deadline has passed.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Ubaldo Jimenez for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Comment:Most likely, this trade was a decent buy for the Indians. Most of Ubaldo's peripherals are right in line with what he's done in the past, and he'll enjoy moving out of Coors Field. But his velocity has also taken a two MPH dive in the past year, and whispers of injury surround him. This is a fairly risky trade with gobs of upside, which is an okay way to describe the closers in this tier. Huston Street needs to drop in the rankings some, even if he survived the trade deadline intact. He has given up three home runs in his last five games, and has now allowed a career-high in homers. His strikeout to walk ratio is still great, and he's only official blown three saves this year. But there are a few losses on his ledger, and the home runs are worrisome. He's on pace for a record amount of home runs for a closer! He should be fine, or he'll get injured again. At least you got more saves and more innings out of him than he gave last year! Drew Storen is also in the midst of a poor stretch. He's surrendered three home runs in his past four games. Maybe the rumors that he was headed to the Twins were messing with his head. We do know that he doesn't have an elite strikeout rate, but his control has held steady, and these could just be a little burst of bad luck. Still, last year he gave up three home runs in 55 1/3 innings. So far this year he's given up seven home runs in two fewer innings. He's not an elite closer.
We gave Jose Valverde some homework, and he obliged. He only has one walk in his last five outings, and he needs to keep that focus. The splitter gets him plenty of groundballs, and his strikeout rate is decent, but the control is key.
Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Hunter Pence for Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid and a PTBNL" Tier.)Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Comment:Yes, Hunter Pence is an upgrade. Over Raul Ibanez. Who is still in Philly. Pence is only a slight upgrade over Domonic Brown most days, and it cost his team all of their best non-Brown prospects to get him. Flags fly forever, but it will take a long time for the Philly farm system to recover from this trade. Joe Nathan is a nice week away from moving up in tiers. He's showing he's healthy and in his last three appearances, the strikeout rate seems to be returning as well. Maybe Carlos Marmol can move up with him. He's closing again and has had two straight clean slate appearances - with no walks. He's always going to have the high WHIP, but steadying the ship means he can be valuable for strikeout rate and saves. Heck, Fernando Salas could even move up. Now that he survived the trade deadline with his role intact, and his manager has shown the confidence to put him out there after a blown save or two, there's not that much to dislike about Salas. He has more than four strikeouts to every walk, he hasn't given up a ton of home runs, and he's only blown three saves on the year. Also, the other options in the pen suddenly don't look as attractive. With Eduardo Sanchez gone, Mitchell Boggs is probably the handcuff. He got the last non-Salas save at least. Jason Motte is still there. Kevin Gregg is still a poor closer, but he's even safer this week then he was last week. Koji Uehara is now in Texas, and there goes Gregg's biggest competitor for the closer's role. Jim Johnson is interesting, but his manager just said that he might get some starts before the end of the season. Alfredo Simon has done the job before, but he's got some legal issues and just started a game himself. Guess Gregg will keep his job despite his mediocrity. He's just so bad of a pitcher that he needs to move down anyway. Chris Perez continues to pitch poorly in Cleveland. He's now allowed five runs in his last 5 1/3 innings, with four strikeouts against four walks. He hasn't blown a save in the last week, but that might have only been because the team didn't give him a chance to. Still, with his ERA where it is, and the fact that he's somehow only blown two saves during all of this, he might be safe. Vinny Pestano is the handcuff, even if he just lost the game Tuesday night. Hey Francisco Cordero found the ability to strike people out again. He has six strikeouts in his last four innings. That's a tiny sample, but it's a heck of an improvement from his early July work. Aroldis Chapman lurks.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Now that the dust has cleared, it's time to look at the post-deadline closer landscape. Well… would you look at that. It's pretty much the same as the pre-deadline landscape. Huh.
That isn't to say that there wasn't much activity at this deadline. No, plenty of players passed hands, and the balance in baseball certainly was changed. In order to follow up on last week's top five deals of all time from the buyers' perspective, we'll name this week's tiers after the top five buyers' deals from this trade deadline.
But the bullpens? Only one bullpen really changed. We'll make sure you're covered on all of them anyway.
Tier 1: Elite (3) (AKA: The "Michael Bourn for Jordan Schafer, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens and Juan Abreu." Tier.)Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Highway robbery. The Braves got exactly what they needed for the next season and a half -- a good defensive center fielder that can impact the game offensively by getting on base and scampering -- and they didn't give up any of their top five prospects. Maybe one of these pitchers turns in to a decent mid-rotation starter. Maybe.Jonathan Papelbon moves to the top of the list. You know why? He's given up four baserunners in the last ten innings. Four. That's one walk! Against thirteen strikeouts. Of course, he just had his first 'Kimbrel' of the year -- three strikeouts and no hits, walks or runs -- while Kimbrel has four of those. But Papelbon's 61/8 K/BB ratio is slightly more impressive than Kimbrel's 84/21 because of the excellent control. Both are great.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Rafael Furcal for Alex Castellanos" Tier.)John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Maybe this trade doesn't seem like a big deal, but there's little risk for the Cardinals, and yet they received a player that has the potential their worst position both defensively and offensively. Furcal pushes Ryan Theriot to second, where his glove plays much better, and if he finds some rejuvenation in his current healthy moment, he could really help that team. John Axford hasn't blown a save since April 18th! He's the closer in Milwaukee and Francisco Rodriguez won't do anything but save a game or two when Axford needs a blow. Joakim Soria did blow his first save since regaining his job, but he still has a 10/2 K/BB ratio over his last ten innings. Compare that to Brian Wilson, who has a 7/5 K/BB ratio over his last ten outings. And also blew two games in that stretch. Moving past the wonkier closers in this tier are Andrew Bailey and Heath Bell. Both guys survived the trade deadline on their original teams and otherwise own lines that are virtually unassailable. Bailey has four strikeouts to ever walk and has improved his strikeout rate this year as well. He's safe, pitches in a nice home park, and plays for a team that will have their share of close games even if they aren't the best team in their division. Bell's peripherals are not quite as nice. He only has two-plus strikeouts per walk and his strikeout rate has dropped this year. Still, over his last ten outings he has only given up ten baserunners and has seven strikeouts. He's not quite the dominant guy he was in the past, but he deserves his ranking now that the trade deadline has passed.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Ubaldo Jimenez for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride" Tier.)J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Comment:Most likely, this trade was a decent buy for the Indians. Most of Ubaldo's peripherals are right in line with what he's done in the past, and he'll enjoy moving out of Coors Field. But his velocity has also taken a two MPH dive in the past year, and whispers of injury surround him. This is a fairly risky trade with gobs of upside, which is an okay way to describe the closers in this tier. Huston Street needs to drop in the rankings some, even if he survived the trade deadline intact. He has given up three home runs in his last five games, and has now allowed a career-high in homers. His strikeout to walk ratio is still great, and he's only official blown three saves this year. But there are a few losses on his ledger, and the home runs are worrisome. He's on pace for a record amount of home runs for a closer! He should be fine, or he'll get injured again. At least you got more saves and more innings out of him than he gave last year! Drew Storen is also in the midst of a poor stretch. He's surrendered three home runs in his past four games. Maybe the rumors that he was headed to the Twins were messing with his head. We do know that he doesn't have an elite strikeout rate, but his control has held steady, and these could just be a little burst of bad luck. Still, last year he gave up three home runs in 55 1/3 innings. So far this year he's given up seven home runs in two fewer innings. He's not an elite closer.
We gave Jose Valverde some homework, and he obliged. He only has one walk in his last five outings, and he needs to keep that focus. The splitter gets him plenty of groundballs, and his strikeout rate is decent, but the control is key.
Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Hunter Pence for Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid and a PTBNL" Tier.)Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Comment:Yes, Hunter Pence is an upgrade. Over Raul Ibanez. Who is still in Philly. Pence is only a slight upgrade over Domonic Brown most days, and it cost his team all of their best non-Brown prospects to get him. Flags fly forever, but it will take a long time for the Philly farm system to recover from this trade. Joe Nathan is a nice week away from moving up in tiers. He's showing he's healthy and in his last three appearances, the strikeout rate seems to be returning as well. Maybe Carlos Marmol can move up with him. He's closing again and has had two straight clean slate appearances - with no walks. He's always going to have the high WHIP, but steadying the ship means he can be valuable for strikeout rate and saves. Heck, Fernando Salas could even move up. Now that he survived the trade deadline with his role intact, and his manager has shown the confidence to put him out there after a blown save or two, there's not that much to dislike about Salas. He has more than four strikeouts to every walk, he hasn't given up a ton of home runs, and he's only blown three saves on the year. Also, the other options in the pen suddenly don't look as attractive. With Eduardo Sanchez gone, Mitchell Boggs is probably the handcuff. He got the last non-Salas save at least. Jason Motte is still there. Kevin Gregg is still a poor closer, but he's even safer this week then he was last week. Koji Uehara is now in Texas, and there goes Gregg's biggest competitor for the closer's role. Jim Johnson is interesting, but his manager just said that he might get some starts before the end of the season. Alfredo Simon has done the job before, but he's got some legal issues and just started a game himself. Guess Gregg will keep his job despite his mediocrity. He's just so bad of a pitcher that he needs to move down anyway. Chris Perez continues to pitch poorly in Cleveland. He's now allowed five runs in his last 5 1/3 innings, with four strikeouts against four walks. He hasn't blown a save in the last week, but that might have only been because the team didn't give him a chance to. Still, with his ERA where it is, and the fact that he's somehow only blown two saves during all of this, he might be safe. Vinny Pestano is the handcuff, even if he just lost the game Tuesday night. Hey Francisco Cordero found the ability to strike people out again. He has six strikeouts in his last four innings. That's a tiny sample, but it's a heck of an improvement from his early July work. Aroldis Chapman lurks.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler" Tier.)1st Chair:
Ryan Madson, 2nd Chair:
Antonio Bastardo, Philadelphia Phillies
1st Chair:
Kyle Farnsworth, 2nd Chair:
Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays
1st Chair:
Javy Guerra, 2nd Chair:
Blake Hawksworth, Los Angeles Dodgers
1st Chair:
Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair:
Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros
1st Chair:
Jason Isringhausen, 2nd Chair:
Bobby Parnell, New York Mets
1st Chair:
Neftali Feliz, 2nd Chair:
Koji Uehara, Texas Rangers
1st Chair:
Jon Rauch, 2nd Chair:
Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays
Comment:Carlos Beltran will help the San Francisco Giants offense. For two months. Zach Wheeler will, in all likelihood, help the Mets rotation for at least six years. That's a tough trade. Ryan Madson is now saving games regularly and Antonio Bastardo has not had one since July 24th, so it looks like the transition has been made. Madson can move up when he's proven that he'll keep the job after blowing a save with Brad Lidge on the roster and healthy. Lidge has been okay since he's returned, with three strikeouts and two walks in 2 2/3 innings.A lot was made when the Rays lost Rafael Soriano last year, but Kyle Farnsworth has filled in admirably. Is his run of luck coming to an end? He's only blown four saves and walked eight batters all year, but three of those blown saves and six of those walks have come in the past ten outings. That's sort of stark. Still, his strikeout rate has recovered recently (12 strikeouts in his last ten innings). And he's given up two earned runs in those three blown saves. This is not a huge blowup, but it's enough to keep him down here.Maybe Javy Guerra and Mark Melancon keep their jobs all year! They are both mediocre relievers, but they are also both young, cheap, and in bullpens that don't have a clear alternative. You can trade away other closers if Guerra and Melancon represent a surplus, since they might just keep their jobs all year. Just don't consider keeping them over the offseason. Who knows what will happen next year.Jason Isringhausen has been a nice story this year, and he's been gritting his way through all of his save chances since being made the closer in New York. He might just keep the job while pitching meh all year like the last two guys. The team might want to go young and has Bobby Parnell in throwing triple digits in the pen. And Izzy just blew a game in spectacular fashion by allowing three hits and a grand slam to Mike Stanton in extra innings, and then repeated that effort with a blown save Tuesday night. This pen could easily see some change. Soon.Texas is one of the pens most likely to see roles change hands, though. Not only is Neftali Feliz struggling (he blew a save last week and has five strikeouts against four walks in his last ten outings), but his manager even questioned his competitive fire. Now his team has two relievers that have been better this year than him, too. Consider their strikeout-to-walk ratios: Feliz (27/20), Adams (49/9), and Uehara (64/8). Uehara might be a fly-ball dude, but he did just fine in another hitter's park in Baltimore. Mike Adams is a career setup man, but Koji Uehara has experience closing. Uehara is a must-own if you're looking for saves, and if you've been holding Adams for saves you might as well hold him a little bit longer to see what happens in Texas. Jon Rauch has three straight saves! Before that, he blew two straight saves. He has eight strikeouts and one walk in his last ten appearances. Frank Francisco has 11 strikeouts and one walk in his last ten. This might keep going all season. I'm happy to discuss these situations on twitter any time.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Comment:Jonathan Broxton news! The big boy is about a week away from beginning a throwing program. He says the discomfort is about 95% gone. There's still no timetable. The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Brandon Lyon, Houston
Matt Thornton, Chicago A.L.
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee
David Aardsma, Seattle
Is Neftali Feliz on the way down to the deposed list? * * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentDee Gordon is back in the major leagues, but we've written him up in this space before and you know about him, flaws and all. A newcomer to the mixed league paragraph is Jason Bourgeois, who we once recommended to shallow leaguers. With Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence out of town, Bourgeois should get all the starts he can handle. Of course, he didn't start Tuesday night, but no matter. He doesn't strike out at all, which helps him put the ball in play and use his best asset, his feet, to get on base. He's less interesting in OBP leagues, or perhaps points leagues, but in traditional root leagues, he'll be useful. Pencil him in for a .280+ batting average with at least double-digit steals going forward. Will Venable is suffering through back spasms but he's a toolsy outfielder with speed. Over the last month, he's hit .250 with six steals and two home runs, and that's sustainable given his history. The best way to use Venable is to put him on your bench and play him against righties, as the lefty has a sizable platoon split. If you can only uses him against righties on the road, you're really put him in a position to succeed. PetCo suppresses home runs by lefties by 41%. Wow.